India Must Have strategic design in foreign policy

By Rajiv Sikri

There is need for new thinking in India's foreign policy. In today's complicated and fast-changing geo-political situation, India has wisely diversified its foreign policy options, but must retain flexibility in order to be able to pursue an independent foreign policy, on which there is an overwhelming national consensus.

India can become a major world power in the 21st century only on its own strength and political will, not because others want it to. Power is always taken, never given.

India is too large and independent to be a reliable ally of the United States on the latter's terms. While there are many short-term factors bringing the two countries together, the long-term strategic interests of the two countries are likely to diverge. India must use the current window of opportunity, when it is being seriously viewed by the rest of the world as a country that will inevitably play a much greater role in world affairs in the coming years, to evolve a strategy that would enable it to become a global player in all respects - economically, politically, militarily and technologically.

On its own, India cannot become a global player. It will have to work with other rising powers that also want a multi-polar world.

China will remain among India's most pressing and difficult foreign policy challenges. India will have to deal with China at many levels. It is a possible partner in a cooperative endeavour to build a multi-polar world. It is also a long-term strategic competitor for influence and leadership in Asia. But, above all, it is a neighbor that has exaggerated and made preposterous territorial claims on India, and that is suspicious of India harboring the Dalai Lama and a large population of Tibetan refugees.

India should eschew its current defensive, timid and somewhat legalistic approach in dealing with China. There is no need to be in awe of China. As a country with aspirations for a larger regional and global role, India has to do some hardheaded scenario building such as a relentlessly rising China or a disintegrating China.

What India does vis-à-vis the major global players is perhaps not as important as what India manages to achieve in its own neighborhood. India cannot be a credible great power unless it has a natural sphere of influence where it is dominant. As India prospers and develops, it has to take along its neighbors; otherwise, its economic growth will not be sustainable.

Ultimately, India's objective should be maximum possible economic integration with it of its neighboring countries, which would tie their destinies with India regardless of the political predilections of the regimes in power. Economic interdependence leading to economic integration may also lead India's neighbors to have a better appreciation of India's security concerns and to cooperate with it in this respect. Without this, the chances of peace and stability in South Asia are bleak.

India has to handle relations with its neighbors with great care and delicacy, mindful of their sensitivities, aspirations and dignity. India has to earn the right to leadership by setting an example, by showing magnanimity, and by successfully managing the growing challenges and contradictions of the region. Patience and an appeal to its neighbors' self-interest have to mark India's attitude. Such an approach will earn India its neighbors' respect and admiration. India has to understand that its neighbors will never love it. India is feared by its neighbors, but perhaps not enough.

Even as it must be visionary, large-hearted and sensitive to its neighbors, India needs to firmly and unambiguously define for its neighbors the goalposts of India's non-negotiable national interests. India should make it clear that it will be uncompromising on security issues. That has to be India's bottom line. Regrettably, an impression has gained ground among India's neighbors that India is a soft state whose nose can be tweaked with impunity. It is imperative that India makes sure that its neighbors know and respect India's core interests. If not, India should be prepared to use its many leverages against them.

Will India's relationship with destiny be consummated? It can be, provided there is a change of mindset among India's leaders and its people. There can be no place for a 'chalta hai' or 'anything goes' attitude. Aspiring to become a great power, India will have to behave like one.

There are no short cuts. Piggybacking strategies are futile. Based on an objective evaluation of India's resources and comparative advantages, India must have a clear grand strategic design. India must have self-confidence in its destiny, determinedly follow clear-headed policies without being pushed around, and work purposefully to build the required institutional structures and public support to sustain its ambitions. Only then can India forge ahead and transform its much vaunted 'potential' into the reality of a strong, prosperous and globally influential country.

Shamshad Begum: Still Topping the Charts at 90

By M H Ahssan

'Mere piya gaye rangoon', 'Leke pehla pehla pyar', 'Kabhi aar khabhi paar' - these retro Hindi numbers are part of every popular DJ's play list these days. While the remixed tunes are a rage at the clubs, few youngsters would be able to name the person behind the groovy voice they love so much: Musical legend Shamshad Begum.

One of the first female playback singers of the Hindi film industry and the woman whose golden voice inspired melody geniuses like O.P. Nayyar and S.D. Burman, Shamshad Begum turned 90 on April 14. The year has already begun on a memorable note for her. Almost three decades after she stopped recording, she received the Padma Bhushan, a civilian award given by the Government of India.

And, just a day before that honor came her way, the Pune-based O.P. Nayyar Foundation announced that they were going to present the grand old lady of Bollywood with the prestigious O.P. Nayyar award for her contribution to Hindi film music. Incidentally, this is the first ever 'filmi' felicitation she has received, despite a long and illustrious singing career.

A picture of grace and elegance, Shamshad Begum, now leads a retired life in Powai, a suburb of Mumbai, with her daughter and son-in-law. But before she set down the mike for good, she left her fans with several evergreen hits that continue to be enjoyed till date.

Shamshad Begum was born in 1919 in Amritsar, Punjab, to a conservative Muslim family. It may come as a surprise to many but perhaps her only real exposure to music in childhood was singing 'naats' (poems recited in praise of the Prophet Mohammed). Her voice was first heard on All India Radio Lahore in December 1937. An immediate success, she captivated many with her enchanting, earthy, nasal voice. At this point, the best thing that happened to her was that sarangi maestro, Ustad Hussain Bakshwale Saheb, accepted her as a disciple. His training reinforced her voice.

Then, as happens in all great stories involving stars, came Shamshad Begum's big break - Ghulam Haider, the Lahore-based composer, was floored by her talent. In fact, she sang in several of his films, including 'Khazanchi' (1941) and the notable 'Khandaan' (1942). When Haider relocated to Bombay (now Mumbai) in 1944, Shamshad Begum, who was an integral part of his team, also shifted base, leaving her family behind. That year, she sang for Mehboob Khan's historical venture 'Humayun', with 'Naina bhar aye neer' being her first major recording hit. It is said that she used to earn a princely sum of Rs 15 (US$1=Rs 50.08) per song at the time.

It was not long before A-list composers, the likes of Naushad, Ram Ganguly, S.D. Burman and C. Ramchandra, were signing her up. In the 1940s and 50s, this die-hard K.L. Saigal fan became a national rage, belting out one hit after another. C. Ramchandra utilised her voice for two very different style compositions - 'Meri jaan, meri jaan sunday ke sunday' ('Shehnai', 1947), which is considered by many to be one of the first real "westernized" songs of Bollywood, and the popular, 'Mere piya gaye rangoon' ('Patanga', 1949). S.D. Burman's 'Saiyyan dil mein aana re' ('Bahaar', 1951) is yet another hot golden oldie.

But O.P. Nayyar and Naushad have to be given the credit for presenting Shamshad Begum's vocal versatility to the world - she has sung unforgettable songs for both composers whose musical styles are very different from each other. While Naushad is more classical, Nayyar is the experimental, peppy one.

The Naushad-Shamshad 'jodi' (pair) took off with 'Chandani aayi ban ke pyaar' ('Dulari', 1949). This was followed by multiple hits from 'Babul' (1950), 'Deedar' (1951), 'Aan' (1952) and 'Naghma' (1953). 'Baiju Bawra' (1952) and 'Mother India' (1957) and the famous 'qawwali', 'Teri mehfil mein qismat aazma kar' from 'Mughal-e-Azam' (1960) came later.

O.P. Nayyar, the other music director with whom Shamshad Begum has had several hits, often described her voice as a "temple bell". Starting with the megahit, 'Kabhi aar kabhi paar' ('Aar Paar', 1954), the duo gave evergreen romantic numbers like, 'Leke pehla pehla pyar', 'Kaheen pe nigahen' and 'Boojh mera kya naam re' in 'C.I.D.' (1956). He also made a very unusual duet, blending her voice with Kishore Kumar - 'Meri neendon mein tum' from 'Naya Andaz' (1956) remains one of the most loved romantic duets.

The death of her husband (in 1955) was a big blow to Shamshad Begum. From then on, her songs became fewer and far between. Some time in the early 1960s, she gave up music and became a recluse.

It was Nayyar who brought her out of her retirement in 1968 to sing a duet with Asha Bhosle in 'Kismat'. The collaboration resulted in 'Kajra Mohabbatwala', which is as popular today as it was 40 years ago. Her reappearance was symbolic in more ways than one. The media hype behind her comeback was immense and many who had only heard Shamshad Begum but never seen her, could finally put a face to the name.

This grand lady has since then, however, kept away from the media. Today, her songs, which have been remixed, are a hit with the younger generation. Well-deserved and much overdue honors are finally being bestowed upon her. But despite them, Shamshad Begum remains the humble woman she was always known to be. According to media reports, when the O.P. Nayyar Foundation decided to confer on her the Lifetime Achievement Award, she graciously accepted the honor but declined to accept the cash award, asking for the proceeds to be given to charity instead.

Here is a woman who is truly a national treasure. Shamshad Begum needs to be recognized, rewarded and cherished.

Poverty Poses a Threat

By Vasant G. Gandhi

So many poor, so easy to ignore them, so we seldom take actions when we see them beg, cry, eat out of garbage, or in open spaces sleep or relieve themselves.

Why bother with poverty? India faces major issues like: terrorism, communal violence, HIV/AIDS, restless youth under 30 (nearly 58 percent of our population), deforestation, pollution, road accidents, shortages, corruption, in-state fighting, unstable neighbors in the northwest and in the east, and on and on. Poverty should be up front in the list.

Let us start with the children of poor parents. They are malnourished and seldom receive nutritious food. Hunger damages their brain and retards their growth. Later, when they grow up, they remain weak, get frequently sick, and have little or no education. Therefore, if we do not help the infants and toddlers of the poor, we will end up supporting youths and adults of poor caliber. And this portends a problem.

Next, when a poor child grows up to be an adult, he or she, most likely, remains uneducated, untrained, and unemployed. Such an adult can be persuaded to carry out violent acts or become a terrorist or undertake unhealthy or dangerous work. And this portends a problem. A Pakistani terrorist, who is now in an Indian jail for killing people in Mumbai in 2008, is an example.

Also, if poor start to illegally migrate to other countries – like Zimbabweans going to South Africa or Bangladeshis coming to India – in search of a better life, it could create a political tension between two nations. And this portends a problem.

However, if we have a few poor, some of the public and private funds spent on food and clothes for the poor could go to solving or mitigating other problems. Likewise, some of the medical resources of government and charitable hospitals could go into medical research.

Arguments like these, and there are many, ought to convince the ordinary people that they need to get involved in rapidly reducing the poverty so the poor can be converted into productive citizens and economic resources spent on them, however meager, could be put to use somewhere else.

Who are poor? Countless millions of babies who are born to poor parents are likely to grow up as poor. Many become poor due to circumstances: when a family’s breadwinner dies prematurely or commits suicide or becomes permanently disabled; when everything a family owns is lost in a natural disaster or in communal violence; when one’s possessions are taken away because one is unable to repay money borrowed to farm a land or to pay for a girl’s marriage or to pay for curing an illness; when one becomes addicted to gambling or alcohol; when one is born with disability and no one is ready to support the disabled; when a head of the household cannot find a work or earn enough to make ends meet. Some simply remain poor for they do not have resources or do not know how or do not have motivation to get out of poverty. Some accept poverty as their fate and misfortune and believe they are paying for bad karmas of past life.

How to make a difference? Poverty persists despite the efforts by governments, NGOs, charities, foundations, businesses, and individuals. Our streets, slums, and shantytowns remain full of poor and the situation is unlikely to improve soon.

The government programs to help poor are poorly running and its monetary assistance is not trickling down to the poor. Moreover, philanthropic organizations are likely to cut down on donations as their endowment generates a poor rate of return due to a sluggish economy worldwide.

However, I believe, a non-poor helping a poor, on a one to one basis, will make a big difference. The helper knows the helped. And if each person adopts a poor and lifts the poor out of poverty then we will have done what needs to be done – serve and save a precious life and turn that life into a self-supporting proud individual.

Opinion: New Four - Cornered Hat

By M H Ahssan

There are three major factors at work in the 2009 assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh. Firstly, there is no single issue that has driven the campaign; it is really an issueless campaign that has political parties and leaders striving hard to capture the imagination of voters. The second major element is the emergence of Telugu superstar Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) and its possible influence on the final outcome. A third imponderable is the likely impact of the populist schemes announced by the Telugu Desam Party-led Grand Alliance in the absence of any obvious incumbency disadvantage against Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy’s Congress government. The only factor that remains interesting and decisive is the final tally of the PRP—the only intriguing part in what otherwise seems to be a long, hot summer of rhetorical nothingness.

The Congress government’s development schemes in rural areas have found some resonance. The only advantage that former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu seems to enjoy derives from an unlikely alliance with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the Left. The TRS demands a separate state of Telangana, while the Left parties have traditionally been hostile to the idea. Their coming together might signal short-term political pragmatism, but the alliance is certain to come under severe strain after the elections. The TRS went with the Congress in 2004 and its alliance with the TDP will afford the latter some electoral benefits in Telangana. The Left also has pockets of support in the region, and together, the Grand Alliance is certain to put pressure on the Congress there.

In the rest of the state, especially in Andhra and Rayalaseema, the contest will be a three-cornered one between the Congress, the Grand Alliance and the PRP. Chiranjeevi’s party has come to articulate the aspirations of the Kapu community, the single largest community in AP, who have, for long, resented the dominance of the Kamma community represented by the TDP and its leadership. Traditionally with the Congress, the Kapus are certain to vote for the PRP. The PRP has not been free of troubles either. Its lack of an organisational structure, recent desertions by senior members and mismanagement in ticket distribution has compounded its woes. Some dissatisfied Kapu voters are likely to return to the Congress fold, but their numbers might not be considerable. The Kamma vote deserted the TDP in 2004, but the PRP’s emergence is likely to bring them back to vote for the TDP, especially in southern AP and in pockets of its stronghold in coastal districts. But despite implosions within the PRP, it is likely to get a sizable chunk of the Kapu votes.

In such a scenario, the TDP will improve upon its disastrous performance of 2004, when it was reduced to 47 seats in the 294-member house. Since 2004, Chandrababu Naidu, once christened the CEO of Andhra Pradesh and the poster boy of corporate India, has found an abiding love for the poor. Taking a populist leaf from N.T. Ramarao’s book, he has announced schemes that include subsidised rice, free electricity for farmers, TV sets, and a Brazil-inspired model of direct cash transfers to the poor. It is difficult to say if anything other than the caste factor along with the marginal advantage of cobbling together an alliance is going to help Naidu to regain the chief ministerial office.

The Congress is unlikely get a majority despite Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy’s charisma and his focus on rural areas. The opposition in the state had hoped that the Satyam scam would affect the CM, but typically, corruption refuses to emerge as an election issue either in the state or in the country. The Congress cannot hope to repeat its 2004 performance of winning 185 seats on its own, and has no allies of any consequence.In the likelihood of a hung assembly, it will have to turn to the PRP for support, with Chiranjeevi the likely kingmaker. There is little chance of the PRP supporting the TDP. The other national party in the state, the bjp, has little presence: it won two seats in 2004.

Congressmen in the state are secretly not unhappy with such a scenario. They are hoping that a reversal in fortunes might cut YSR’s sway over the state’s affairs and his hold over the Congress highcommand. There is also some discomfort regarding the rise of Jagan Reddy, the CM’s controversial son; a diluted mandate for the Congress might help rein in his rising power. In any case, the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections are unlikely to throw up a dramatic result.

Compete Uncertainity in AP Elections

By M H Ahssan

At least since the 1980s, Andhra Pradesh had settled into a two-cornered political universe, with the Congress and the TDP occupying all of it. Naxalism on the outside was certainly a bigger factor than the stray pockets of mainstream Left influence within the system. The game, however, has been changing in recent years. The arrival of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) was the first sign of a deeper segmentation. If that had a regional logic, the appeal of Chiranjeevi’s new Praja Rajyam Party (PRP), with caste affiliation at its basis, completes the break-up. The present assembly and Lok Sabha elections, thus, are multi-cornered in an unprecedented way—no one knows exactly how the contest between the Congress; the grand alliance or Mahakootami led by the Telugu Desam Party, with the TRS, CPI and CPI(M) as junior partners; and the PRP will pan out.

If the Congress manages to make a serious play of its intent to retain power in the assembly and contribute significant numbers to the Lok Sabha, like it did in 2004, this election will be a do-or-die battle for the TDP and the TRS. The PRP too will be full of anxiety about holding on to the initial surge of support if it wants to remain relevant after the elections.

In 2004, the Congress-led alliance had unexpectedly dominated the show, winning 226 of the 294 assembly seats and 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, then offering itself as a key exhibit in the BJP’s India Shining story, had to resign itself to 49 assembly and five Lok Sabha seats and an honest stint in the opposition. But this time, the ground has shifted a bit. Key Congress allies from 2004—TRS, CPI and CPI(M)—are all with the TDP’s Mahakootami. And with the PRP cutting into votes in the Congress’s traditional coastal bastions, many believe the chances of a coalition government loom large.

Significantly, the PRP has maintained equidistance from the Congress and the Mahakootami, fancying for itself the role of kingmaker. But the biggest irony this time is the TDP’s alliance with the TRS, which by its very nature runs against TDP founder N.T. Rama Rao’s vision of uniting Telugus. The TRS’s raison d’etre is a separate Telangana state. But, given the desertions the TDP was witnessing, there was little Chandrababu Naidu could do other than change the line on statehood for Telangana.

It’s this pitched contest that explains the goodies being promised by each side. If the Congress has increased the quota of Rs 2 per kg rice from 4 kg to 6 kg per head per month and promised nine hours free power supply daily for farmers, the TDP alliance has gone a step ahead, committing free power for 12 hours. But what has caught the imagination of voters in Telangana is the TDP’s innovative Cash Transfer Scheme (CTS), besides the promise of a colour TV. Under CTS, BPL families are being assured of Rs 1,500-2,000 every month, to be directly deposited into their bank accounts.

The PRP too has promised a composite package of nutritious food for Rs 100 and a gas cylinder at the same price. "The CTS appears to have caught everyone’s imagination," says Prof Kolan Ram of Osmania University.

A fortnight ago, the popular perception was that the Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy government had handled anti-incumbency well and the Congress was riding high, but in the last week or so, the grand alliance has shown that it can bite. "The shift is perhaps attributable to the desertions and crisis in the PRP," says Prof K. Nageshwar, an MLC. The nine-month-old PRP, which took off with a bang, failed to retain its initial momentum and allowed internal bickering to spill over to the streets.

The party’s senior functionaries were accused of selling tickets and one of its founding members, Parakala Prabhakar, quit after calling the party "a poisonous tree".

Moreover, the delay in allotment of a common symbol has adversely affected the PRP in rural areas. "It’s sad that a party which was on the verge of creating history at the time of its launch has failed to develop itself into a formidable political force. It lacks a proper organisational structure," says Prof G. Hargopal, a political analyst and a civil rights activist.

It is generally understood that the PRP’s prospects in Telangana are dim, but it would do well in the coastal districts of Vizianagaram, Vishakhapatnam, East Godavari, West Godavari and Srikakulam, which account for 68 assembly seats.
Chiranjeevi’s Kapu community, which has a good presence in these districts, may switch faith from the Congress to the PRP this time. But in the south coastal districts, with 55 seats and a predominant Kamma populace, the PRP may slip. The Kammas, NTR’s community, generally prefer the TDP.

The coastal belt accounts for 17 Lok Sabha seats. In Rayalaseema, with 52 assembly seats, all three groups are believed to have a fair chance.

However, in Telangana region, with 119 assembly and 17 Lok Sabha seats, the grand alliance appears to be emerging stronger. "Our alliance is expected to wrap up a major share of seats in the region on the basis of its commitment to the people of Telangana," says senior TDP leader M.V. Mysoora Reddy.

"We’ll surely win between 60 and 70 seats here." The Congress admits it is on a sticky wicket here. "Telangana is a little tough, but we are banking on winnable candidates," says APCC spokesperson Kamlakkar Rao. Despite UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s assurance of giving "top priority" to Telangana, there is little unanimity on the issue among the state leaders. "There’s still that element of doubt about Telangana, as leaders in the ruling party seem divided on the issue," says Dr Kolan Ram.

Historically, Andhra hasn’t distinguished between an assembly and a Lok Sabha poll. "So there may not be much difference in the distribution of votes between parties for the two elections," says Prof Hargopal. He says it appears that the Congress has the edge for the 42 Lok Sabha seats, but the margin may shrink as polling proceeds. The TDP and its alliance partners are no doubt upbeat, but the popular schemes launched by the YSR government may stand the Congress in good stead. "We have delivered all we promised in our 2004 manifesto.

We have beaten anti-incumbency by making a success of the Indiramma housing scheme, Rajiv Arogyashri health insurance, the pension scheme for widows and the aged, and by also implementing NREGA seriously. The Congress will form the next Andhra Pradesh government," says V. Hanumanth Rao, former APCC president. He refused to speculate whether his party would do it on its own, or need alliance partners. The Congress has taken a huge risk, replacing nearly 60 sitting MLAs, most of whom have responded by rebelling.

But Rao claims the ‘rebellion’ has been contained and all parties face that problem
Political observers feel the opposition has failed to convert corruption into a serious issue. "If they had raised it effectively they could have forced anti-incumbency on the Congress," says Prof K. Nageshwar, a political analyst. "Something like the Satyam scam, which sent shock waves across Andhra Pradesh, has been pushed aside as an ‘upper middle-class issue’."

The TDP has levelled a series of corruption charges against the Congress government and some of them have to do with major irrigation projects under a programme called Jala Yagnam.

For instance, in Sripadasagar project in Yelampalli of Karimnagar district, the TDP alleged that the YSR government had inflated the project cost overnight from Rs 1,344 crore to Rs 1,725 crore. The CAG too had objected to the inflation of the project cost in its 2007 report. The Congress government has spent about Rs 43,000 crore on irrigation projects in the last five years and that, the TDP claims, should give a rough estimate of money that has allegedly been swindled.

The TDP has also gone ahead and released a book on the government’s corruption. The book points fingers at YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy’s dealings and also throws light on irregularities in allotment of land to SEZs in some prime locations.

In the midst of these allegations and the summer heat, what comes as a treat is the glamour of 17 film personalities in the fray. There’s Chiranjeevi of course, contesting from Tirupati. Then there’s Jayasudha from Secunderabad, on a Congress ticket; Krishnam Raju of PRP takes on Murali Mohan of TDP in Rajamundhry; Allu Aravind is contesting from Anakapalli; Roja of TDP is fighting from Chandragiri; and Telangana protagonist Vijayshanti is contesting the Medak Lok Sabha seat.

The other ‘stars’ in the fray are sons of important leaders. The CM’s son, Jagan Mohan, is contesting the Kadapa LS seat and TRS leader Chandrashekara Rao’s son, K. Rama Rao, is contesting from the Sircilla assembly constituency. TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu’s son Lokesh, too, has been active in strategising for the TDP. He is said to be the brain behind the cash transfer scheme in the TDP manifesto.

The Sting Of Flint

By M H Ahssan

For all those who regarded Dr Manmohan Singh as a mild-mannered, professorial sort, unlikely to engage in the rough and tumble of political pugilism, the last few weeks have come as a revelation. Recuperating from a successful heart surgery and yet brimming with the confidence of being ‘the chosen one’, the prime minister has demonstrated a rolled-up-sleeves muscularity that few would have suspected him of possessing.

He has taken on the BJP’s PM-in waiting, Lal Kishen Advani, frontally, verbally pulverising him in the process. To accusations that he has been the "weakest PM ever", that he seeks permission from 10, Janpath even to drink a glass of water, he has hit back, pouring scorn on the mazboot neta who has promised the people a nirnayak sarkar.

"Mr Advani has the unique ability to combine strength in speech with weakness in action. This is not the kind of strength we need," Manmohan said in Mumbai, stressing that, "unlike the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, I won’t be found weeping in a corner while hoodlums tear down a centuries-old mosque. Nor will I be found wringing my hands in frustration while one of my CMs condones a pogrom targeted at minorities."

And these were not off-the-cuff remarks. Manmohan had come prepared to take on the BJP. Indeed, whether it was on the occasion of the release of the Congress manifesto, or his successive interactions with journalists recently, Manmohan has been unrelenting in his criticism of Advani.

Now, it is the BJP—rather than the Congress—which wants to terminate the war of words. Indeed, former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee felt constrained—on the eve of the first day of polling—to issue a double-edged endorsement for his long-time comrade-in-arms. "Mr Advani," the appeal reads, "is a sensitive and extraordinary person whose best is yet to come. When he becomes the prime minister, his achievements will be before the people." Well, we have Vajpayee’s word for it.

Of course, what has given Manmohan even greater confidence is the way in which the Congress’s first family has rallied around him. "There can be many candidates for the post of prime minister but nobody stands in front of Manmohan Singh," Sonia Gandhi said, while responding to a question on the party’s nominee for the top job. "He has both experience and competence." Priyanka Gandhi, campaigning in Amethi, went a step further: "You cannot judge a person’s strength from his external personality. Mahatma Gandhi was so gentle but was so strong from inside. Manmohan Singh is very strong and determined." And Rahul, whom many in the party would like to see as prime minister, has repeatedly said, "My prime ministerial candidate for the coming Lok Sabha elections is Dr Manmohan Singh."

Apart from the endorsement, what has also strengthened Manmohan is that despite the BJP’s propaganda, there have been no signs of dissonance between the two centres of power in the Congress.

There has been a sharing of power, a division of labour, but no turf war. In fact, the two have managed remarkably well," points out a senior civil servant. "Compare that with the Jaitley-Rajnath battle fought in full public view."

Clearly, at the end of his long-running verbal duel with Advani, both in his choice of words and facts, Manmohan has emerged the victor. But the question is: why did the BJP single him out, rather than focus on its favourite whipping boys and girls—the Gandhi trio of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka?

"It would have been counterproductive to target the Gandhis," a Union minister told Outlook, "once Sonia Gandhi had made it clear that neither she nor Rahul were in the running for PM." A long-time observer of the BJP’s campaigns told Outlook, "Having positioned its own leader as a mazboot neta who will provide a nirnayak sarkar, it was imperative to provide a suitable foil: project the PM as weak and indecisive."

But the BJP’s attempts thus far to portray the prime minister as weak or indecisive have failed, because Advani has been found wanting on those very indices. "The PM has merely held up a mirror to Mr Advani," information and broadcasting minister Anand Sharma said. "And he has shown the world that he (Advani) is incapable of providing strong leadership."

Concurring, mnister of state in the prime minister’s office, Prithviraj Chavan, told HNN, "Mr Advani is living in a glass house—anyone can throw stones at him. He must come clean on Kandahar. How can he say he doesn’t remember what happened at the meeting of the cabinet committee on security? He may be troubled by the decision he took but he can’t resort to selective amnesia."

Finally, the BJP has tried to give a presidential feel to this election by juxtaposing Advani with Manmohan because it does not have a pan-Indian issue. The UPA government’s swift response post 26/11—changing the home minister, promising a tough new terror law, and Pranab Mukherjee’s tough diplomacy with Pakistan—neutralised the BJP’s terror card. Similarly, the BJP’s attempt to highlight rising food prices is being countered by the UPA’s social agenda: schemes like the NREGA, farm loan waivers, and increase in the MSP for various crops appear to be resonating with the voting public. The Ram issues—temple and Setu—are there in the BJP manifesto, but Hindutva is perforce being played low key, now that its candidates—from Varun Gandhi in Uttar Pradesh to retired ips officer Ashok Sahu in Orissa—have faced the wrath of the law for hate speeches.

By comparison, the prime minister, who began with the disadvantage of being a "nominated" rather than "elected" leader, has demonstrated, through his success in steering the coalition government through a difficult period that he, too, has leadership qualities.

"The PM has a special USP all his own," Union minister for science & technology Kapil Sibal told HNN. "He has enormous acceptability among the people. He has successfully run this government for five years, and attacking Advani actually accentuates his positive qualities, for Advani does not have a similar acceptability." The manner in which he pushed the Indo-US nuclear deal through, virtually single-handedly, in the face of scepticism in his own party and opposition from political allies and rivals alike demonstrated tenacity, even cussedness. And the way in which he inducted the Samajwadi Party into the UPA to compensate for the Left parties’ exit underscored that, behind that tentative manner, there was steel—and an understanding of politics and a willingness to muddy his hands.

Putting the prime minister’s appeal in context, a civil servant who has observed him closely told HNN, "He is seen as a sagacious man, whose steadying hand can steer the ship of state safely through tumultuous waters. Simultaneously, he is seen as an aspirational figure, despite his age, by the increasing numbers of young people who are making public opinion. Manmohan strongly believes that opportunities can change lives—this links him to the mindscapes of the young. That is why he has laid emphasis on quality education." He points out that the prime minister often refers to his modest beginnings in a village and how he has been able to rise through the opportunities that came his way.

Indeed, Manmohan has touched more lives than even he might have imagined. Two weeks ago, while travelling through central and eastern Uttar Pradesh, where the contest is essentially between the BSP and the Samajwadi Party, the question, "Which party would you like at the Centre?" evoked a remarkably similar answer from potential voters. Cutting across the urban-rural barrier, religious and caste lines, a majority said, "The Congress and Manmohan Singh." Why Manmohan Singh? Even in rural areas, the answer was remarkably uniform—in this era of an economic meltdown, it was important to have an arthshastri at the helm of affairs; at a time when India was engaging with the world, India needed a leader who could converse with world leaders on equal terms.

Perhaps, the last word on Manmohan Singh comes from Rahul Gandhi: "A young person looks to the future, the old look to the past. Our prime minister looks to the future. When he introduced economic reforms in 1991, he looked 20-30 years ahead. If you sit with him, he will start telling you one, two, three, four, five, six, seven—his plans," Rahul said in Kochi. And then without naming Advani, he continued: "His opposition is a person who harks back to the past, to 2004.He only speaks of what has been done—there is nothing about the next five years."

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YSR down, but still looks ahead in AP

By M H Ahssan & HNN Team

With the tamasha of a general election now in full swing, politicians are stooping to new lows in their rhetoric as though Varun Gandhi’s hate speech in Pilibhit had somehow removed a psychological barrier. The television networks are full of shrill, boisterous debates as rivals try to score points and the treacherous business of poll forecasting is underway.

India Today magazine has predicted that the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh, which won 34 out of 42 seats in 2004, is poised for a good performance although with fewer seats - about a quarter fewer than last time.
The losses will be the result of a strong showing by its arch rival, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of Chandrababu Naidu, which had won only 10 seats in 2004. The prediction is based on the expectation that the same factor which brought the Congress to power last time - a carefully crafted alliance - will be pivotal in this election too except that this time it is the Congress’ rivals who have stitched together a seemingly ‘winning’ coalition.


In 2004, the Congress had forged an alliance with the two Communist parties, the CPI and the CPI-M, as well as the regional party, the Telengana Rashtra Samiti, TRS, led by Chandrasekhar Rao, which wants a separate state of Telengana.

The arrangement has been reversed in this election. The Congress is going it alone while the TSR and the leftwing parties are now allied with the TDP. The simple arithmetic of this coalition suggests that it will give the Congress a run for its money. Certainly, Naidu appears very ebullient and confident and is on the go constantly, campaigning tirelessly, unwilling to take any chances.


No one disputes that the Telengana region will be crucial in determining the outcome. It has 17 of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats and 119 of the 294 state assembly seats. And while it’s true that Naidu’s coalition looks sturdy, the fact remains that it was hastily cobbled together at the last moment by politicians and parties who have nothing in common with one another.

For example, the TDP and the Communists have been bitter opponents of the idea of a separate Telengana state - the very raison d’etre of the TRS. As one expert told me, the coalition is inherently unstable because it arose from electoral compulsion rather than the ground reality or any natural affinity.

Quite apart from the opposition alliance’s weaknesses, there are other reasons for doubting whether Naidu and his allies are going to trump the Congress. I am convinced that the sheer amount of development carried out for the rural poor by the Congress will come into play as voters make up their minds. Congress Chief Minister, Dr Y.S. Chandrasekhara Reddy may well do a Shiela Dixit in Andhra Pradesh.

YSR, as he is known, appears to be very popular in some sections of society, particularly among the poor and the urban lower middle class. In the Muslim quarter of Hyderabad, by the famous Char Minar monument, there was a widespread feeling that while the Congress might win fewer seats than last time, it would probably do better than the TDP and its allie.

As for film star Chiranjeevi who has floated a party called Praja Rajyam Party, it remains to be seen if he can convert his huge fan following into votes. Unlike legendary leader NTR, he lacks the charisma that allowed NTR to give the Congress a tough time. NTR played on the pride of the Andhraites who, he said, had been treated as pawns by the Congress regime in New Delhi.

NTR used to travel by road for weeks in the early 1980s addressing huge crowds who used to wait patiently for him in the blistering heat. I remember a sea of men, women and children sitting on the roadside in Guntur since the morning, waiting for NTR. They waited for 10 hours until NTR eventually arrived in Guntur close to midnight.

I narrated this phenomenon to Rajiv Gandhi when I met him two days later in Vijaywada. I told him that it looked as though the Congress was going to be mauled. NTR swept the polls and his Telugu Desam party has been a constant thorn in the flesh of the Congress Party.

His successor, Naidu, also sparkled for a while as he turned Hyderabad into a technology and IT hub but he made the fatal mistake of neglecting rural development.

This is where YSR scores over Naidu. Travel through the towns and countryside from Hyderabad to Machchlipatnam and you can see the number of welfare schemes and projects for the poor which have made a good impression on farmers and peasants. In Andhra Pradesh, unlike some other states, the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme which gives poor laborers 100 days work a year has been well implemented.

Even his detractors confessed to me that YSR personally monitored the payment for workers, the crux of problems in other areas where the records are fudged. He devised a simple scheme: putting the money directly in the savings accounts of the beneficiaries which had been opened as part of a special rural banking project.

Villagers also speak highly of a health scheme called ‘Arogyasri’ by which the rural poor and slum dwellers receive medical treatment not only in government run hospitals but, in some cases, in private hospitals too. The state government used the funds it received from the Centre under the Jawaharlal Nehru Renewal Fund to pay for the patients’ treatment.

Finally, the poorer sections of society have been receiving 20 kilograms of rice, two kilograms of dal, and two kilos of sugar for Rs 50 under another welfare scheme.

I caught up with YSR in the heart of Telangana where he had addressed eight roadside meetings. Here he was, in a region where the regional TRS had broken off with the Congress, openly admitting that his party had reneged on its promise of granting the region statehood.

Addressing a large crowd in Warangal district, YSR said the Congress was now ready to give statehood but cautioned that it would take time for the new parliament to form the second demarcation commission.

But he reminded the crowd about the achievements of his government in alleviating poverty. He also rattled off statistics showing the number of new schools and colleges that had been opened in the region; how the irrigation network had been expanded to cover the whole area; and how the literacy rate in Andhra Pradesh was now second highest in the country, after Kerala.

The progress certainly hit me as I travelled around. In 1977, a cyclone devastated large parts of Andhra Pradesh. It was like a tsunami except that in those days we didn’t even know the word. I saw the destruction in the towns and villages of coastal Andhra, famous for its natural beauty and the tremendously rich soil in the hinterland where rice, sugarcane, cotton, and tobacco grow.

Some 50 villages near Vijaywada were flattened. Around 10,000 people perished in a few hours on the night of 11 November, 1977. Huge waves, some as high as 20 feet, swept away people, homes and livestock. For three days the area remained unreachable because even the railway lines had been destroyed. I was among the first journalists to reach Diviseema, 50 miles west of Vijaywada. In those days, Vijaywada was nothing but an overgrown village.

Now it is the third largest city in Andhra Pradesh and has a four lane expressway. There are at least two five star hotels and the port of Machchlipatnam is soon going to be developed. The main street, Bandar Road, is as modern as anything in Hyderabad.

Not all of this development, of course, can be attributed to YSR and the Congress. But his message to voters will be that a substantial chunk has taken place in the past five years under his rule.

I fear that Naidu and his TDP may struggle to rubbish these achievements. That is where YSR may enjoy an advantage over his rivals in this election.