Compete Uncertainity in AP Elections

By M H Ahssan

At least since the 1980s, Andhra Pradesh had settled into a two-cornered political universe, with the Congress and the TDP occupying all of it. Naxalism on the outside was certainly a bigger factor than the stray pockets of mainstream Left influence within the system. The game, however, has been changing in recent years. The arrival of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) was the first sign of a deeper segmentation. If that had a regional logic, the appeal of Chiranjeevi’s new Praja Rajyam Party (PRP), with caste affiliation at its basis, completes the break-up. The present assembly and Lok Sabha elections, thus, are multi-cornered in an unprecedented way—no one knows exactly how the contest between the Congress; the grand alliance or Mahakootami led by the Telugu Desam Party, with the TRS, CPI and CPI(M) as junior partners; and the PRP will pan out.

If the Congress manages to make a serious play of its intent to retain power in the assembly and contribute significant numbers to the Lok Sabha, like it did in 2004, this election will be a do-or-die battle for the TDP and the TRS. The PRP too will be full of anxiety about holding on to the initial surge of support if it wants to remain relevant after the elections.

In 2004, the Congress-led alliance had unexpectedly dominated the show, winning 226 of the 294 assembly seats and 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, then offering itself as a key exhibit in the BJP’s India Shining story, had to resign itself to 49 assembly and five Lok Sabha seats and an honest stint in the opposition. But this time, the ground has shifted a bit. Key Congress allies from 2004—TRS, CPI and CPI(M)—are all with the TDP’s Mahakootami. And with the PRP cutting into votes in the Congress’s traditional coastal bastions, many believe the chances of a coalition government loom large.

Significantly, the PRP has maintained equidistance from the Congress and the Mahakootami, fancying for itself the role of kingmaker. But the biggest irony this time is the TDP’s alliance with the TRS, which by its very nature runs against TDP founder N.T. Rama Rao’s vision of uniting Telugus. The TRS’s raison d’etre is a separate Telangana state. But, given the desertions the TDP was witnessing, there was little Chandrababu Naidu could do other than change the line on statehood for Telangana.

It’s this pitched contest that explains the goodies being promised by each side. If the Congress has increased the quota of Rs 2 per kg rice from 4 kg to 6 kg per head per month and promised nine hours free power supply daily for farmers, the TDP alliance has gone a step ahead, committing free power for 12 hours. But what has caught the imagination of voters in Telangana is the TDP’s innovative Cash Transfer Scheme (CTS), besides the promise of a colour TV. Under CTS, BPL families are being assured of Rs 1,500-2,000 every month, to be directly deposited into their bank accounts.

The PRP too has promised a composite package of nutritious food for Rs 100 and a gas cylinder at the same price. "The CTS appears to have caught everyone’s imagination," says Prof Kolan Ram of Osmania University.

A fortnight ago, the popular perception was that the Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy government had handled anti-incumbency well and the Congress was riding high, but in the last week or so, the grand alliance has shown that it can bite. "The shift is perhaps attributable to the desertions and crisis in the PRP," says Prof K. Nageshwar, an MLC. The nine-month-old PRP, which took off with a bang, failed to retain its initial momentum and allowed internal bickering to spill over to the streets.

The party’s senior functionaries were accused of selling tickets and one of its founding members, Parakala Prabhakar, quit after calling the party "a poisonous tree".

Moreover, the delay in allotment of a common symbol has adversely affected the PRP in rural areas. "It’s sad that a party which was on the verge of creating history at the time of its launch has failed to develop itself into a formidable political force. It lacks a proper organisational structure," says Prof G. Hargopal, a political analyst and a civil rights activist.

It is generally understood that the PRP’s prospects in Telangana are dim, but it would do well in the coastal districts of Vizianagaram, Vishakhapatnam, East Godavari, West Godavari and Srikakulam, which account for 68 assembly seats.
Chiranjeevi’s Kapu community, which has a good presence in these districts, may switch faith from the Congress to the PRP this time. But in the south coastal districts, with 55 seats and a predominant Kamma populace, the PRP may slip. The Kammas, NTR’s community, generally prefer the TDP.

The coastal belt accounts for 17 Lok Sabha seats. In Rayalaseema, with 52 assembly seats, all three groups are believed to have a fair chance.

However, in Telangana region, with 119 assembly and 17 Lok Sabha seats, the grand alliance appears to be emerging stronger. "Our alliance is expected to wrap up a major share of seats in the region on the basis of its commitment to the people of Telangana," says senior TDP leader M.V. Mysoora Reddy.

"We’ll surely win between 60 and 70 seats here." The Congress admits it is on a sticky wicket here. "Telangana is a little tough, but we are banking on winnable candidates," says APCC spokesperson Kamlakkar Rao. Despite UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s assurance of giving "top priority" to Telangana, there is little unanimity on the issue among the state leaders. "There’s still that element of doubt about Telangana, as leaders in the ruling party seem divided on the issue," says Dr Kolan Ram.

Historically, Andhra hasn’t distinguished between an assembly and a Lok Sabha poll. "So there may not be much difference in the distribution of votes between parties for the two elections," says Prof Hargopal. He says it appears that the Congress has the edge for the 42 Lok Sabha seats, but the margin may shrink as polling proceeds. The TDP and its alliance partners are no doubt upbeat, but the popular schemes launched by the YSR government may stand the Congress in good stead. "We have delivered all we promised in our 2004 manifesto.

We have beaten anti-incumbency by making a success of the Indiramma housing scheme, Rajiv Arogyashri health insurance, the pension scheme for widows and the aged, and by also implementing NREGA seriously. The Congress will form the next Andhra Pradesh government," says V. Hanumanth Rao, former APCC president. He refused to speculate whether his party would do it on its own, or need alliance partners. The Congress has taken a huge risk, replacing nearly 60 sitting MLAs, most of whom have responded by rebelling.

But Rao claims the ‘rebellion’ has been contained and all parties face that problem
Political observers feel the opposition has failed to convert corruption into a serious issue. "If they had raised it effectively they could have forced anti-incumbency on the Congress," says Prof K. Nageshwar, a political analyst. "Something like the Satyam scam, which sent shock waves across Andhra Pradesh, has been pushed aside as an ‘upper middle-class issue’."

The TDP has levelled a series of corruption charges against the Congress government and some of them have to do with major irrigation projects under a programme called Jala Yagnam.

For instance, in Sripadasagar project in Yelampalli of Karimnagar district, the TDP alleged that the YSR government had inflated the project cost overnight from Rs 1,344 crore to Rs 1,725 crore. The CAG too had objected to the inflation of the project cost in its 2007 report. The Congress government has spent about Rs 43,000 crore on irrigation projects in the last five years and that, the TDP claims, should give a rough estimate of money that has allegedly been swindled.

The TDP has also gone ahead and released a book on the government’s corruption. The book points fingers at YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy’s dealings and also throws light on irregularities in allotment of land to SEZs in some prime locations.

In the midst of these allegations and the summer heat, what comes as a treat is the glamour of 17 film personalities in the fray. There’s Chiranjeevi of course, contesting from Tirupati. Then there’s Jayasudha from Secunderabad, on a Congress ticket; Krishnam Raju of PRP takes on Murali Mohan of TDP in Rajamundhry; Allu Aravind is contesting from Anakapalli; Roja of TDP is fighting from Chandragiri; and Telangana protagonist Vijayshanti is contesting the Medak Lok Sabha seat.

The other ‘stars’ in the fray are sons of important leaders. The CM’s son, Jagan Mohan, is contesting the Kadapa LS seat and TRS leader Chandrashekara Rao’s son, K. Rama Rao, is contesting from the Sircilla assembly constituency. TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu’s son Lokesh, too, has been active in strategising for the TDP. He is said to be the brain behind the cash transfer scheme in the TDP manifesto.