PUNTERS VOTE FOR MANMOHAN AS PM

By HNN Election Team

Less than two weeks away from general elections, the race for power is reaching a crescendo. Perhaps the most clued in on the ground realities is the satta market. HNN finds out how the odds stack up

The five-day process to find out who will rule the world’s largest democracy will cost the Election Commission of India roughly Rs 1,400 crore. However, around five times that sum is at stake in the dingy bylines of urban India where punters are calling cards, taking bets and hedging risks on the outcome of General Elections 2009.

Welcome to the world of India’s booking syndicates, or the Satta Market. HNN eaves dropped on the chatter emanating from the Satta dens of Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Agra, Kolkata and Bangalore, where an estimated Rs 7,000 crore is riding on Elections 2009, up significantly from the Rs 2000-4,000 crore that the last polls commanded.

All these cities have seen hectic activity going on in their satta dens for the months. Bets are being placed on almost everything to do with the elections — winners and losers in key constituencies, margins of victory and defeat and anything else that can be speculated upon.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of India? A question that’s on over a billion minds today is boiled down to five options at the betting table — Incumbent Manmohan Singh, followed by Rahul Gandhi, L K Advani, Mayawati & Sharad Pawar. Mr Singh is a clear favorite here, meaning this option commands the least amount of risk, and hence the least margin. The odds on him are pegged at just Rs 10 to every Rs 100 you bet on. In other words, a bet on the incumbent PM returning to power will earn you just Rs 110 for Rs 100.

After Mr Singh, it’s a tight race between BSP supremo Mayawati and NCP leader Sharad Pawar. On Mayawati, if you bet Rs 100, if she becomes PM you win Rs 145 while on Sharad Pawar you get more than Rs 150. At the fourth position is BJP’s PM candidate LK Advani followed by AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi. While punters are booking Rs 155 for LK Advani, if Rahul Gandhi was to become the PM, the profits would be the highest at Rs 160.

A leading bookie in Delhi told Sunday ET that the exit polls during earlier elections had fuelled a lot of activity in the satta markets. “In the last general elections, exit polls after every phase played a crucial role for us. Now, with no exit polls there has been a wait and watch policy by many punters. In fact, the same rates seem to be prevailing in all the operating markets, while earlier markets had different rates. There is a general feeling that the UPA campaign so far has been aggressive as compared to the Opposition and its allies.”

With many political analyst predicting the 15th Lok Sabha to be a hung parliament the satta market is still not giving any rates on which political party will win and with how many seats. In fact betting rates of every political party is expected to be out only three to four days prior to every phase of voting. The first phase of voting starts on April 16 and the last one would be on May 13, which is the fifth phase of voting.

Interestingly, Varun Gandhi has not only become the poster boy of the BJP but also of the betting word in the last one week. In fact, he is among the few individual politicians on whom the satta market is giving rates of winning the elections. Besides Varun Gandhi, the punters are also fixing rates for individuals such as Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, LK Advani and Laloo Prasad Yadav but the profit margins on these leaders are very low. Interestingly, for the satta market any sports hold more mileage and importance than the general elections, even if it comes once in five years.

THE SIEGE WITHIN - When political friends become opponents

By M J Akbar

The first pattern of this general election has emerged: the really fierce contest is not between traditional foes, but between yesterday’s friends, particularly where they shared power. The BJP’s sense of betrayal in Orissa is palpable. The more decisive story is within the UPA, where shifting mindsets have ignited a splinter-explosion.

In 2004, the Congress had a single aim: to defeat the BJP. This time, its objectives have doubled. Its parallel purpose in 2009 is to expand its base. Where this expansion is sought at the cost of the BJP there is only minor confusion, created by large-scale intrusions by Mayawati or more modest forays by Mulayam Singh Yadav. The contradiction within the UPA lies in the fact that the Congress space in the Gangetic belt and Maharashtra has been usurped by its allies. The Congress clarified its intentions when it decided that it would not fight the 2009 elections as part of an UPA alliance, but seek partial adjustments as suited its purpose. It has prioritised its opponents from the list of allies.

At the top of the Congress hitlist is the Left, which opposed its heavy strategic tilt towards America. The Congress accepted a humiliating seat-sharing arrangement with Mamata Banerjee in order to maximise the damage to the principal Left citadel. In practical terms, this alliance will not help the Congress very much: it would have retained its six seats even without Trinamool. But the Congress vote could help Mamata Banerjee to poll vault from one seat to 10 or even more.

Curiously, the Congress walked away from similar electoral terms in Bihar, giving a lifeline to the BJP and the NDA. Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan offered the Congress what it had, three seats. The Congress could even lose all three seats, because it is contesting alone. It accepted a double jeopardy in Bihar in order to begin the process of revival.

Ditto in Uttar Pradesh. Mulayam was more generous than Lalu. The Congress had nine seats; it was being offered 17. A Mulayam-Congress deal would have pressurised Mayawati, squeezed the BJP and taken Congress from nine seats into double digits. Double jeopardy again: BSP and BJP will increase their tally now. The collapse of the Jharkhand pact with JMM will be even more beneficial to the BJP. Is there an explanation?

The Congress stuck with Sharad Pawar only because it did not want its chief minister to resign before the Assembly elections in autumn. But Sharad Pawar is also dispensable in the large scheme of things; he blocks Congress growth in the second largest state, just as Mulayam and Mayawati choke it in the largest. In Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi retained his alliance with the Congress only by increasing the latter’s seat share to 14 out of 39.

Congress has calculated that when the tears dry and the numbers are counted, the cost will not amount to loss of power in Delhi. It believes it will still emerge as the largest single party, and then be able to cajole or bully the very allies it has damaged by whipping up a ‘Stop BJP At Any Cost’ campaign.

They would not be politicians if Pawar, the Yadavs and Ram Vilas did not instinctively recognise the dangers of this squeeze. They have responded by squeezing back. Pawar has pre-empted the post-election bullying with a question of his own: if the Congress is so anxious to stop the BJP, why doesn’t the Congress support a Third Front government from outside, or even inside, instead of demanding primacy of power in any coalition? In 2004, he and the others were caught flat-footed. This time they have begun a dance to a tune of their composition. Pawar has made it clear that he considers himself a better future prime minister than Dr Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi.

Prakash Karat, who has no debts to pay the Congress and feels betrayed, is categorical that the Left will not support a Congressled government in 2009. If UPA is the modern coalition in Indian politics, the Marxists are saying that they are all post-modernists now.

Conflicts of regional interest have added a Fourth Front to the Third, but these parties will rearrange themselves after the results. Where conflicts are incompatible, parties like BSP and SP will be in different camps, depending on who has reached where first. Do not imagine that all ‘Front’ parties have closed the backdoor to the NDA. Indian politicians love the freedom of a two-way street, and some of them are dexterous enough to negotiate any roundabout.

But both the walk and the talk will start only on the afternoon of May 16. Professional politicians pay for opinion polls, and then dismiss those they don’t like. This may occasionally reflect an inability to face the unpleasant; but they also know that polls are not necessarily the truth. An opinion poll is what it says it is: an opinion. The fact of the matter is that only facts matter. Till then, ignore the spin, enjoy a rest, but do wake up to vote.

Global powerhouses made in India

By M H Ahssan

The transformation of Indian companies from domestic to global players occurred in three phases. Pre-reform, prior 1991, Indian business was in shackles. The post-1991 economic reform necessitated decade-long corporate restructuring to make companies globally competitive. Now, in the third phase, Indian companies are increasingly going global.

Pre-1991, large Indian business houses were prone to stay at home in the sheltered domestic market. The institutional environment of licensing and limited competition led to domestic success without developing the unique competencies, the resources, or the viable scale necessary for competitive advantage in international markets.

Post-1991, Indian companies realised that the traditional Indian business model appropriate for ‘‘sheltered firms’’ had to be abandoned. The decade-long Indian corporate restructuring programme had four essential elements: cleaning the balance sheet, improving competitiveness, focusing on core businesses, and strengthening management. To a great extent, the promoter determined the degree to which the painful restructuring medicine was adopted. Some business groups and companies were rather aggressive in changing the old ways. Other business groups suffered from poor leadership and the family splitting of assets. As a result, some renowned family business houses witnessed unprecedented decline in the 1990s.

In that decade, dominant domestic leaders increasingly looked to become global but they had to overcome the mindset barrier. ‘‘We asked ourselves: Why don’t we become one of India’s MNCs in manufacturing? By doing so we will have better access to the market, better access to knowledge, better access to new developments,’’ explained Baba Kalyani of Bharat Forge. Nevertheless, it took Bharat Forge seven years to find its first customer because coming from a so-called underdeveloped, low-cost country, the company had to battle all kinds of doubts regarding its capability. The Bharat Forge experience raised three issues about overcoming the mindset barrier that comes up repeatedly in Indian companies’ global quest: making a leap of faith, persistence in the face of initial setbacks and overcoming the liabilities of the ‘Made in India’ origin.

For an Indian company to go global requires, at some level, a leap of faith into the unknown. In the face of scepticism, the entrepreneur or owner made the decision to go for it despite, what to unbiased observers, may have seemed like long odds. Anand Mahindra mentioned that while pursuing his MBA at Harvard Business School, he was disappointed that there were no case studies or examples of Indian global brands. It fired his ambition and led him to decide that when he took over the family business, Mahindra would be a global brand.

Becoming global is a learning game. There are initial setbacks and in light of a growing and profitable domestic business, it would have been easy to retreat from global markets. Yet, they persevered and learned from their mistakes. The initial hotels acquired in the 1980s by the Taj Group in cities such as Chicago, New York, and London were B-level properties. But they were what the Taj Group could afford given the foreign exchange limitations the government placed. Taj realised that its competence was in the running of five-star hotels. Later, when it became serious about its international operations in developed markets, it shed all the initial acquisitions and acquired prestigious hotels such as the Ritz Carlton in Boston and Blue Sydney in Australia. What made Taj persevere? R K Krishna Kumar, vice-chairman of Taj Hotels, said: ‘‘The Tata Group has always recognised that the world marketplace is not divisible ... There’s a strategic compulsion to go outside India for many of our businesses because we believe the global market is one marketplace.’’

Until the late 1990s before the IT outsourcing boom, the image of India was detrimental to Indian business. At its worst, India was identified with abject poverty. It was extremely difficult to convince global customers that an Indian supplier could be a reliable source of good-quality products made by a technologically sophisticated company. Imagine an Indian executive a decade ago trying to persuade Procter & Gamble that Essel Propack should be its supplier in the United States.

Indian entrepreneurs learned that in competitive global markets there was always another supplier willing to match the Indian firm’s low prices. To obtain the order required more than that: demonstrating they had the world-class capabilities (assets, processes and knowledge) to compete in international markets.

Going global also requires a dominant lever. Companies such as Infosys and i-Flex Solutions were born global because they understood that India’s huge human capital advantage needed global fulfillment. The IT sectors were instrumental in sparking the imagination of Indian entrepreneurs to seek ‘born global’ business models that exploit India’s large pools of reasonably priced skilled workers.

A transformational merger is a frequently employed strategy to become a global firm. Hindalco did exactly that with its 2007 acquisition of Novelis, a world leader in aluminum rolling and can recycling. Several other Indian firms, such as Arcelor Mittal, Tata Tea and United Breweries, have also used acquisitions as a path to globalisation.

Other companies, such as Tata Motors, Godrej, and Marico, have utilised the specific product competencies developed for India to enter other emerging markets. Given India’s size, domestic leadership often confers global scale, as seen at both Mahindra & Mahindra and VIP. As Anand Mahindra observed, ‘‘India is the largest tractor market in the world, and if you are the largest tractor maker in India, it is a disservice to India if you are not a global force.’’

Grave crisis hits cemeteries

By NEWSCOP

Everything is shrinking in the time of recession — even space for the dead. In the last few years, graveyards in India have been facing an acute shortage of land.

According to Penzy Morgan of New Delhi’s Indian Christian Cemetery, fresh spaces are available in just two of the Capital’s seven Christian cemeteries. “The only burials taking place in these cemeteries are of family members of those whose graves are already there, and even they are being buried in layers on top of existing graves,” she says.

The problem is believed to cut across religious lines. Mehfooz Mohammad, caretaker of the Delhi Wakf Board’s mosques and graveyards, says the Capital’s Muslims need at least 10 more graveyards. “As per a 1970 gazette notification, 488 Muslim graveyards exist in Delhi. Of these, only 25-30 are in actual operation today. Many graveyards have been illegally occupied and litigation is on to get the land back,” he says.

Wadood Sajid, a Muslim cleric, attributes the space shortage to too many permanent graves. “As per Islamic law, graves should be kuchha (temporary), so as to facilitate more burials on top. However, people have not only made permanent graves, but also erected tombstones, making it difficult to bury in layers.”

This has meant for some innovative solutions. The Sewri Christian cemetery in Mumbai exhumes bodies after 18 months and places the remains in small niches that line the cemetry’ walkways. Relatives of the deceased can erect plaques or put up pictures on the niches. “We have been grappling with space shortage for a long time. The issue, in fact, became so acute that since September 2005, we have withdrawn the facility of people buying space within the cemetery. However, since the introduction of niches, a little more space is available,” says Reverend John Silas of Mumbai Diocese.

The Madras Cemeteries Board (MCB), which looks after three cemeteries in Chennai, recently started the system of multi-tier vault burial. This, after its largest cemetery at Kilpauk was partially closed for new burials in April 2005 because there was little available space. “We also introduced the practice of ash burial, where the body is cremated and the ash buried. However, that hasn’t found many takers,” says MCB secretary Bosco Alangar Raj.

The multi-tier vault system places bodies in vaults that look like bank lockers. They can be reused after 2-3 years with the remains pushed into a pit below. “We have utilized 115 vaults till date,” says MCB president Father M. Rayappa.

Even so, the problem with shrinking space for burials looks set to assume grave proportions.

Does branded petrol really give you that extra mile?

By M H Ahssan

Next time you pay Rs 2 extra per litre to tank up on branded petrol, you are probably being taken for a ride. For, the state-run oil marketing companies have failed to back up their claim of this fuel giving higher mileage and better engine performance before the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Commission (MRTPC).

Not just that, the oil companies have also been unable to explain how they have reached the price mechanism in case of branded fuel. MRTPC had asked the companies to “clarify the quantitative difference between normal fuel and branded fuel along with supportive documents.’’

The query, however, failed to get the companies to furnish anything more than letters from additive suppliers in support their claim. While the additive suppliers, the Singapore branch of Chevron and Oronite, have spoken about the benefits of branded fuel, it has failed to impress the Commission as it doesn’t regard the suppliers as non-partial authority; on the contrary they are viewed as vested interests.

The suppliers’ certificates do not talk about any test having been carried out on branded petrol. On branded diesel, they says the use of these fuel “ensures a lower flow loss than worldwide norm”. The certificates are silent on extra mileage. The failure to get the right tests done is not for want of facilities. The government-run Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) is said to be a competent authority for such tests.

The MRTPC approached the ARAI to check if it has any view on the branded fuels. But the association told the Commission that it doesm’t have results of any tests as it was never asked to carry out “any branded fuel evaluation test.’’

Oil company executives told TOI these additives are globally certified by independent labs and accepted in US and European markets. “The results clearly showed improved drivability and maintenance cycle,’’ one senior IndianOil R&D executive said. Branded fuels come with added chemicals, which, the companies claim, help reduce engine friction and improve performance. While oil marketers are free to decide prices of such fuels within a band, the government controls the prices of normal fuels and had kept their price artificially low during crude’s climb to a peak of $147/barrel in mid-July.

Crorepati netas vow voters with assets

By Swati Reddy

That Allu Aravind, the producer of Ghajini, has had enjoyed a successful career is hugely evident from the assets he has declared in his affidavit. The film producer’s assets (both movable and immovable) are valued at about Rs 24 crore and that of his wife’s at Rs 28 crore. The couple is together sitting on riches such as 2.4 kg gold, a BMW car valued at Rs 94.8 lakh and land worth crores of rupees.

Allu Aravind, brother-in-law of Chiranjeevi and also his right-hand man who is contesting from the Anakapalli (Visakapatnam rural) Lok Sabha constituency, has listed diamonds and gold worth Rs 18.27 lakh and bonds and debentures valued at over Rs 6 crore. His movable assets are valued at over Rs 8 crore and that of his wife’s at over Rs 9 crore. While the amount of available cash with him is a modest Rs 3.74 lakh, he has disclosed Rs 5.98 lakh as his deposits in banks and financial institutions. While his investments in shares and debentures are in crores of rupees, he also believes in traditional forms of savings having invested Rs 67.76 lakh in postal savings, NSS, LIC etc.

The 62-year-old film producerturned-politician, owns 969 grams of gold (his wife owns about 1.5 kg of gold) and 46.7 carats of diamond. While his jewellery is worth Rs 18.27 lakh, his spouse’s jewellery, which also includes 10 kg silver, is valued at Rs 16 lakh.

His other assets such as claims/interests are valued at Rs 30 lakh, while his wife’s other assets are worth Rs 70 lakh. He has no dependents and his wife does not own a car.

His non-movable assets include properties such as agricultural land, commercial buildings and non-agricultural properties in Hyderabad, Rangareddy district and even Chennai. He owns agricultural land at Kokapet, in Greater Hyderabad, valued at Rs 1.35 crore, a share in vacant land in Chennai valued at Rs 1.45 crore (his wife too owns a share in the same vacant land and that is valued at Rs 4.35 crore). Allu Aravind also owns vacant land worth Rs 1.92 crore at Gachibowli village. He owns non-agricultural land at Madhapur, valued at Rs 75 lakh and a plot in Chennai valued at Rs Rs 2.69 crore.

Allu Aravind, who makes his political debut in this election, also owns a commercial building in Jubilee Hills (worth Rs 5 crore), two residential buildings in Chennai and one apartment in Mumbai, whose current market value is Rs 45 lakh.

The star PRP candidate’s spouse too is the owner of two residential buildings and two apartments in Chennai and Hyderabad. While the worth of her properties is close to Rs 20 crore, Allu Aravind’s immovable assets are worth Rs 15.5 crore.

But Allu Aravind isn’t the only cash-rich candidate and his assets are lower than those of Chiranjeevi, Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s son Jaganmohan Reddy and even that of TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu.

Film star-turned-politician K Chiranjeevi and his wife Surekha own assets worth Rs 88 crore. The Telugu megastar’s assets are worth more than those of Jaganmohan Reddy and his wife, who declared assets of Rs 77 crore.

The Prajarajyam Party president, who filed his nomination papers in Palakollu assembly constituency in his native West Godavari district on Friday declared that he had immovable assets worth over Rs 30.32 crore and his wife had assets worth Rs 48 crore. In addition, he has movable assets worth over Rs 3.5 crore while his wife’s movable assets are worth over Rs 6.16 crore.

The movable assets of Chiru include Rs 634,521 cash, Rs 21 lakh deposits, Rs.1.12 crore bonds and shares, a Honda CRV car worth Rs 8,27,150 and gold worth Rs 1.95 cr. The immovable assets of the PRP president include his Jubilee Hills residence here worth Rs 14.36 crore, a house in Chennai worth over Rs 2 crore, land at four different places including Hyderabad and Chennai valued at over Rs 13 crore.

Musheerabad set for tough battle

By M H Ahssan

In the by-polls last year, T Manemma of the Congress barely sailed through to win the Musheerabad assembly constituency. Eight months later, her popularity hasn’t improved and she is having a tough time with voters.

As Manemma went around the constituency seeking re-election, she saw distrust in the eyes of unforgiving voters who question her openly about promises she has not kept. “You promised pensions to all those who are eligible, but more than 20 people are still waiting for it here,” K Babu Rao, a cycle shop owner told her point-blank at Bapujinagar during her campaign. here and elsewhere Manemma’s stock reply was: “Let the elections be over. I will see that all the eligible get pensions.”

A Bharatamma, a widow and physically handicapped woman, complained that though she was getting Rs 200 widow pension, she was not getting pension under the physically handicapped quota. She was told that she would have got it if she had more than 60 per cent deformity.

In the last election, Manemma, wife of former chief minister T Anjaiah, won over BJP’s K Laxman. Most major parties have fielded the same candidates who had contested the by-polls. Only the CPM candidate S Veeraiah is out as the Mahakutami alliance allotted it to TRS, represented by former MLA Nayani Narasimha Reddy. Rohit Kumar represents Lok Satta. The Prajarajyam Party (PRP) has fielded P V Ashok Kumar here.

Interestingly, the traders here are up in arms against both Manemma and Narsimha Reddy due to proposals of massive road widening in Musheerabad and Kavadiguda. “Nearly 300 shops between Musheerabad to Chikkadpally will be affected by road widening, yet neither of them has responded to us,” said C Rajesh Kumar, a shopkeeper at Musheerabad.

Though Manemma claims to have spent Rs 13 crore on developing the constituency in the last eight months, voters like pan shop owner B Mallesh of Musheerabad say that she is inaccessible. “She visited our colony only during the last elections; even MP Anjan Kumar Yadav was not seen here in the last five years,” Mallesh said.

Meanwhile BJP’s K Laxman is targeting middle class colonies with door-todoor campaigns in Gandhinagar, Bakaram and Chikkadpally. “The Congress government burdened flat owners by collecting an extra Rs 125 per flat towards water charges. I will see that this is stopped,” Laxman told a flat owner of Surabhi apartments at Bakaram.

The BJP nominee is however worried about splitting of anti-Congress votes. Laxman lost by a margin of 2075 votes in the bypolls, trailing behind Congress candidate Manemma who secured 34,795 votes. Lok Satta’s Rohit Kumar got 6000 votes.

BJP nominee Laxman believes he lost the May 2008 by-election because most of the educated and employed, usually considered a vote bank of BJP, went in favour of the young entrepreneur Rohit Kumar of Lok Satta. However the BJP is strong in the Kavadiguda, Jawaharnagar, Vidyanagar and Domalguda municipal divisions, and has several corporators from the last municipal elections. But one Vidyanagar corporator quit BJP and joined TRS, boosting the confidence of Narsimha Reddy who thinks this will add to the TRS vote bank, and CPM and TDP strength.

Nayani Narsimha Reddy thinks he lost the by-election because the CPM candidate had supported the TDP then. In 2004, he won because the TRS had allied with the Congress party. This time, both the TDP and CPM are supporting the TRS.

All candidates agree that the sizeable Muslim votes in areas like Gulshan Nagar, Tajer Nagar and Siddiqui Nagar could go the Congress way. And this could make a big difference.

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE
Total voters: 2,24,594 |
Male voters: 1,17,285 | Female voters: 1,07,309

Segments under this constituency: Musheerabad, Bakaram, Azamabad, Baghlingampalli, Chikkadpally, Ashok Nagar, Kavadiguda, Bholakpur, Adikmet, Domalguda, Anjaiahnagar, Kavadiguda, Ranga Nagar, Zamistanpur, Bakaram, Nallakunta, Jawaharnagar, Lower Tank Bund locality, Gandhi Nagar and Old Nallakunta

Liquor sales ‘poll’ vault

By Radha Rani

Liquor flows freely in the state in blatant violation of the Election Commission’s directive to officials to check its sale during the elections. Excise figures of four coastal districts for March show that belt shops have not only been not shut down, but have actually mushroomed.

Excise officials told HNN that sales from the authorised liquor shops in the district account for 60 per cent of the total revenue collection while the belt shops account for the remaining 40 per cent. That the belt shops have not been closed down is revealed by the fact that Nellore district registered a record sale of Rs.46.07 crore in March alone, almost 60 per cent more than the sale in February.

In fact, the sale of liquor in Nellore was the highest in March for the past four months with February accounting for the least, Rs 27.58 crore. In Prakasam district, the liquor revenue shot up to Rs 29.59 in March from Rs 20.56 in February. In Guntur district, the revenue increased by nearly Rs five crore in March while it jumped up by Rs three crore in Krishna district.

“If the belt shops were closed down, the sale of liquor would have dropped by 35-40 per cent. But that has not happened and on the contrary, the sale of liquor has
shot up, implying that more belt shops have sprung up,” said an excise official.

The belt shops are flourishing in complete violation of the directive given by Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswamy when he had visited the state on March 13. “All the belt shops should be closed down within the next 48 hours,” was his command. AP’s chief electoral officer I V Subba Rao too told the media that steps were being taken to ensure the closure of the shops.