PUNTERS VOTE FOR MANMOHAN AS PM

By HNN Election Team

Less than two weeks away from general elections, the race for power is reaching a crescendo. Perhaps the most clued in on the ground realities is the satta market. HNN finds out how the odds stack up

The five-day process to find out who will rule the world’s largest democracy will cost the Election Commission of India roughly Rs 1,400 crore. However, around five times that sum is at stake in the dingy bylines of urban India where punters are calling cards, taking bets and hedging risks on the outcome of General Elections 2009.

Welcome to the world of India’s booking syndicates, or the Satta Market. HNN eaves dropped on the chatter emanating from the Satta dens of Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Agra, Kolkata and Bangalore, where an estimated Rs 7,000 crore is riding on Elections 2009, up significantly from the Rs 2000-4,000 crore that the last polls commanded.

All these cities have seen hectic activity going on in their satta dens for the months. Bets are being placed on almost everything to do with the elections — winners and losers in key constituencies, margins of victory and defeat and anything else that can be speculated upon.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of India? A question that’s on over a billion minds today is boiled down to five options at the betting table — Incumbent Manmohan Singh, followed by Rahul Gandhi, L K Advani, Mayawati & Sharad Pawar. Mr Singh is a clear favorite here, meaning this option commands the least amount of risk, and hence the least margin. The odds on him are pegged at just Rs 10 to every Rs 100 you bet on. In other words, a bet on the incumbent PM returning to power will earn you just Rs 110 for Rs 100.

After Mr Singh, it’s a tight race between BSP supremo Mayawati and NCP leader Sharad Pawar. On Mayawati, if you bet Rs 100, if she becomes PM you win Rs 145 while on Sharad Pawar you get more than Rs 150. At the fourth position is BJP’s PM candidate LK Advani followed by AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi. While punters are booking Rs 155 for LK Advani, if Rahul Gandhi was to become the PM, the profits would be the highest at Rs 160.

A leading bookie in Delhi told Sunday ET that the exit polls during earlier elections had fuelled a lot of activity in the satta markets. “In the last general elections, exit polls after every phase played a crucial role for us. Now, with no exit polls there has been a wait and watch policy by many punters. In fact, the same rates seem to be prevailing in all the operating markets, while earlier markets had different rates. There is a general feeling that the UPA campaign so far has been aggressive as compared to the Opposition and its allies.”

With many political analyst predicting the 15th Lok Sabha to be a hung parliament the satta market is still not giving any rates on which political party will win and with how many seats. In fact betting rates of every political party is expected to be out only three to four days prior to every phase of voting. The first phase of voting starts on April 16 and the last one would be on May 13, which is the fifth phase of voting.

Interestingly, Varun Gandhi has not only become the poster boy of the BJP but also of the betting word in the last one week. In fact, he is among the few individual politicians on whom the satta market is giving rates of winning the elections. Besides Varun Gandhi, the punters are also fixing rates for individuals such as Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, LK Advani and Laloo Prasad Yadav but the profit margins on these leaders are very low. Interestingly, for the satta market any sports hold more mileage and importance than the general elections, even if it comes once in five years.