A wide open poll, or new coalitions?

By M H Ahssan

Despite uncertainties, the electoral dice seems loaded against the NDA, though the UPA isn’t in a happy state either.

When the BJD recently walked out on the BJP in Orissa, many called the move a game-changer adverse to the NDA, which had already lost numerous allies and been pared to onethird its original size. Since then, the Congress’s seat-adjustment talks with the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janashakti Party in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar broke down. The three have formed a “fourth front”. The PMK in Tamil Nadu has quit the UPA and allied with the AIADMK-MDMK. Is this also a gamechanger, this time against the Congress?

Honestly speaking, the answer is not quite, although it’s a setback to the Congress-UPA. The AIADMK-led alliance will, as expected, gain at the expense of the DMK-Congress combine, but it’s unlikely to sweep the election given that the latter command a 35-40% vote. In UP and Bihar, the UPA will bleed from the Congress’s blunder in vetoing a national alliance. But the Congress was anyway slated to do relatively poorly in the two states. The SP-RJD-LJP arrangement is less a rival alliance than a pressure-group without synergy between its bases. No, the UPA hasn’t unravelled, not yet.

At any rate, these developments take the current turbulence, uncertainty and political promiscuity one step further. Parties are courting one another across alliances, abandoning the rules of coalition politics. The central question is if the churning will modify existing coalitions, or trigger a more basic transition from a decade-long era of pre-election alliances to expediency-driven post-poll alliances.

The answer isn’t clear, but three trends are plain. The UPA had an early edge, but may be losing it. If the Congress wins roughly the same or higher number of seats as in 2004 (145), the UPA should be able to form the government. But this isn’t assured. Second, the NDA is in disarray. Its core, the BJP, is in retreat. It’s desperately using communal hate-speech to stem its decline, with uncertain results. Its most important ally, the Janata Dal (United), is uneasy about staying within the NDA after the election.

Third, the non-Congress non-BJP Third Front has received a boost both from direct accretions and the SP-RJD-LJP front. It’s drafting a programmatic document which might give it some coherence. But this hotchpotch still lacks a holding party which can make it more durable than the V P Singh-led National Front (1989-91) or the United Front (1996-98). The Left is the Front’s progenitor, midwife and mentor — combined. But its seat-tally is likely to decline. The Front can’t come close to power unless the Telugu Desam, AIADMK and BSP do exceptionally well, and stay with it. These are big ifs.

Varun Gandhi’s venomous attack on Muslims represents one of the most nauseating episodes of the present campaign and a new low in the history of communal politics. His use of a super-derogatory term for Muslims, and his exhortation to forcibly sterilise them — a throwback to his father’s Emergency role — violate the election law and the Indian Penal Code. Such hatespeech belongs to the discourse of fascism and is profoundly anti-democratic.

This isn’t the first time the BJP has used anti-Muslim appeals to win votes. The Election Commission has over the years disqualified 3,423 people from contesting elections for “corrupt practices”, many related to communalism. Gandhi’s is a rare case where a candidate’s speeches are videotaped; producing irrefutable evidence. But the EC has no power to disqualify him until after a court convicts him. Disqualification after a candidate has vitiated the climate and harvested hatred can only partially remedy the original offence.

THE NDA isn’t going places. The BJP has antagonised the JD(U) by fielding from Bihar two loud critics of chief minister Nitish Kumar: Shatrughan Sinha and Rajiv Pratap Rudy. Kumar is building bridges with Muslims, especially backward-caste Muslims and doesn’t want communally tainted BJP leaders to campaign in Bihar. He has also refused to give a ticket to George Fernandes, the JD(U)’s most pro-BJP-RSS leader.

BJP campaign strategist Arun Jaitley has revolted against party president Rajnath Singh. L K Advani is unable to assert his authority. The BJP is floundering and substituting internet-based gimmickry for strategy. It will probably lose several seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. It did remarkably well in these states in 2004, but its base has eroded. It’s unlikely to recoup through small gains in Gujarat, Jharkhand and Haryana.

The UPA isn’t in a happy state either. The Congress’s arrogant refusal to make seat adjustments has created a huge mess. In UP, it was remarkably inflexible towards the SP. But its nemesis came in Bihar, where the RJD-LJP offered it only three seats out of 40. It retaliated by nominating Sadhu Yadav and deciding to go solo in 37 constituencies. The Congress’s fate depends on whether it can make up in other states its likely heavy losses in Tamil Nadu and Andhra.

The Third Front can’t go far unless it’s seen as programmatically credible. This won’t be easy: all its constituents barring the Left stand tainted by past association with the BJP-NDA, including the BSP, which has thrice shared power with the BJP in UP. A convincing common manifesto asserting the Front’s commitment to secularism and inclusive economic policies could help — but probably not enough to turn the election around even if Mayawati improves on her 2004 score (16) and wins 25-35 seats in UP.

More important, the social energies that drove the non-BJP-non-Congress forces in the 1980s and 1990s have been significantly depleted. Optimistically, a Third Front with 100-120 seats could attract some NDA parties and form a government with the UPA’s support. But there are red lines here. The BJD, Akali Dal, AGP and TDP will find it difficult to accept Congress support. If the BSP joins the Front, the SP won’t. It the Left is in it, the Trinamool Congress will be out. If the RJD is in, the JD(U) will keep out.

The instability and uncertainty endemic in this hazy scenario won’t be resolved unless there’s a reworking of relations between plebeian forces and social movements, and political parties’ programmes and policies.

PEOPLE NOW KNOW LEFT IS RIGHT: YECHURY

By M H Ahssan

CPM politburo member says that the country needs a non-Congress, non-BJP, ‘secular’ alternative, and is confident that the front will take concrete shape after poll results are out

If there is one pragmatic voice in an otherwise dogmatic CPM today then that’s certainly Sitaram Yechury’s. Having honed his skills as an interlocutor under the guidance of ace negotiator Harkishen Singh Surjeet when the late CPM general secretary played midwife during the birth of two UF governments, Mr Yechury has now donned the mantle. As the elections are expected to throw up a fractured mandate, his skills will be put to test. Excerpts from an interview.

The Left was part of the governing arrangement at the Centre for over four years. Do you think Congress has the political skills and sincerity to be the core of a coalition?
Congress did not show the sincerity to implement in right earnest the content and spirit of the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) which in the first place was the basis on which the Left extended outside support. It’s because Congress violated the CMP by promoting a strategic alliance with the US on the question of the nuclear deal that the Left had to withdraw outside support.

Will it be easy to convince the electorate that the pluses in the government were on account of the Left and the negatives are the sole creation of Congress?
I think people have already realised this particularly in the wake of the impact of global recession. This would have been far more devastating had not the Left prevented the government from going ahead with financial liberalisation at least on five scores-- full capital account convertibility, privatisation of pension funds, banking reforms, raising FDI cap in the insurance sector and disinvestment of public sector units. On the other hand, people have already seen that but for the Left's insistence the NREGA would not have taken off leave alone be-ing extended to the whole country. It took full four years of dithering to finally announce rules for forest rights. During the course of the election campaign, these issues will become clearer.

Till some time ago, there were doubts about the political sustainability of the third front. How confident are you about the third front getting into a cohesive formation post polls?
Fairly confident. Additionally our past experience confirms this confidence. The United Front was formed after 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA after the 1998 elections, and UPA was formed after the 2004 elections. And so shall it be with the alternative secular front post 2009 election.

The third front will require more parties with it if it has to take a shot at power at the Centre. Are you ready to do business with parties like SP.
We have worked with many of these parties such as SP, RJD and LJP in the past in a non-Congress secular combination. Today, we are appealing to all non-Congress secular parties to come forward and meet people’s aspirations for an alternative policy direction that can only be provided by a non-Congress secular alternative.

The national parties have become notional players in many important states. How do you visualise politics playing out in these states in the coming months?
This in a sense is the reflection of India’s rich social plurality which is reflecting itself in its polity. This is not a regression of democracy. In fact it is its maturing in the Indian context. Many of these parties will play an important role in their regions and contribute to political federation in the future.

Will not the growth of regional parties that play identity politics inhibit the growth of parties like CPM?
No. CPM has always recognised that class struggle in India has two components, namely struggles against economic exploitation and social oppression. As it’s only CPM and the Left that combine these two elements, identity politics will not inhibit our growth.

Which party will become the core of the third front?
The Left will play an important role. There is also a process on way to reunite the socialist Left, which is divided into several parties. But the alternative will be truly federal with equal role for regional parties along with Communist Left and socialist Left.

Has the association with Congress dented your party’s image in states like Kerala where the party is your principal rival?
On the contrary, people have seen the process that I have talked about earlier. They have also seen the manner in which Congress has reneged on its promises in the CMP.

How do you explain your party’s association with parties like PDP and leaders like Madani?
There is no front or alliance or seat-sharing with PDP. In any election we appeal to all to vote for us. In Kerala, they have responded by stating that they will vote for LDF as opposed to UDF..

Can CPM withstand the challenge from the Trinamool Congress-Congress combine in West Bengal? Do you think development is a saleable issue in West Bengal?
What has been happening de facto has been declared de jure in these elections. The polarisation in West Bengal in these polls is sharpening around pro- and anti-industrialisation forces. This is appearing more relevant and crucial with the impact of global recession. This will be the single most important issue on which people will vote in the state.

CPM has been maintaining that it could join the next government. How probable is CPM’s participation in a government at the Centre?
After the 1996 experience when the party declined the suggestion to make Jyoti Basu the prime minister, the issue of our leading or joining government at the Centre was thoroughly discussed at our 1998 Party Congress. We decided that if any such situation arises in future, the central committee will take an appropriate decision on the basis of the situation.

G20 meet: All eyes on India, China

By NEWSCOP

Manmohan Singh strode across the red carpeted tarmac, climbed the stairs leading up to his private suite in the Boeing 747, waved back within a minimalist arc as he is wont to, and disappeared inside. He was 30 minutes late, but looked purposeful. As the captain announced departure, we hoped the visit to the G20 summit in London on April 2 would serve some purpose.

With the world reeling under the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s, everyone’s praying that the summit will come up with a coordinated plan to pull the world out of the hole it’s sliding into. The cost of failure is too high to contemplate.

The 19 developed and developing countries and the EU that officially make up the G20 account for close to 90% of world GDP, 80% of global trade and roughly two-thirds of the planet’s population. So, what they decide should matter. However, experts are near unanimous that the differences among the 20 are so wide that it’s unlikely anything concrete will emerge from London.

For India, given the low expectations of any real breakthrough at the summit itself, attention could focus on the two bilateral meetings of Manmohan Singh — with British PM Gordon Brown on April 1 and US president Barak Obama the next day. While Brown and Manmohan have met recently when the former visited India, it will be Manmohan’s first meeting with the new US president.

The world, however, is expecting more from India. Given that most developed economies are contracting, there’s high respect for the two big economies that are actually growing — India and China. ‘Newsweek’ says so in its latest issue while predicting “the Asian Century is almost here’’.

Foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon said that issues other than the economy were likely to figure in the Manmohan-Obama meeting.

The US new policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan and India’s assertion that the world must recognize Pakistan’s key role in global terror were always likely to figure and the Lahore attack on Monday will only add to the urgency with which the issue is addressed.

The meeting will also be watched for the atmospherics between the two leaders. While there is little doubt that Indo-US relations will continue to grow closer under Obama, many will be watching their body language and try to gauge whether the chemistry matches up to the Manmohan-Bush bonding.

The world will keenly watch what China does. The summit is seen by the western media as China’s first major chance to flex its muscles. Part of the reason lies in the fact that the wheel has turned full circle since the G20 was formed a decade ago in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.

That was when the developed world was sitting on its high horse and talking down to the Third World — Asia in particular — on how it must get its house in order. Today, roles have been reversed with the developed world desperately hoping that China and India can pull the world out of recession.

China has also given indications that it recognizes its international clout and means to use it. The most obvious pointers to this confidence have been suggestions on replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency of choice and Chinese premier Wen Jiabao saying that China hoped the US would do whatever it takes to safeguard the Asian gaint’s trillion dollar investments in US treasury bonds.

To return to the differences that beset the G20, much of Europe sees greater regulation of the financial sector as the key to resolving the crisis and preventing its recurrence, but is reluctant and fiscally constrained when it comes to offering larger stimulus packages.

The US wants Europe to cough up much more by way of a stimulus, but is averse to the idea of stringent regulation.

The developing country participants, India included, strongly want protectionism to be brought down and the issue will form a key parameter for judging the summit’s success or failure. It’s a principle that all have readily endorsed, but one that invariably proves too slippery to really catch hold of, given the domestic compulsions of each government.

As Menon candidly admitted, each country is likely to define protectionism in terms that best suit its interest. The issue isn’t just a developed versus developing country problem. There are accusations within the developing nations — China against India, for instance.

For the record, the G20 leaders meet is to discuss not just the immediate crisis, but also larger issues like a reorganization of the IMF and the World Bank to give the developing world a greater say in these institutions as well as enhancing the resources available to them.

But those hoping for paradigm-changing shifts in London might be doing so in vain.

PURDAH POLITICS IN ANDHRA

By Reema Subia

2 Muslim women set to test poll waters
Muslim women have been the subject of extensive debate in India, chiefly around the conflicting claims of personal law, identity and gender, but no party has bothered much about their representation in mainstream politics.

After a long gap, some Muslim women have been given the chance to contest the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in the state. While some like Fathima Begum (Hyderabad LS nominee) were named by Prajarajyam Party, two women — former mayor Mallika Begum, contesting from minority-dominant constituency of Vijayawada (West) and Pathan Noorjahan Khan, fielded from Pedakurapadu faction zone — are struggling to make inroads.

Well, both of them hail from average middle class families but their opponents are sparing no efforts to defeat them on the grounds that they are novices and incapable of facing the rough and tumble of elections.

Mallika Begum, who has been the first citizen of Vijayawada city for almost two years, won her division election with just 200 votes and became a mayor due to internal squabbles in Congress (read MP Lagadapati Rajagopal used her as a pawn).

Sources said Jaleel Khan, a minority community strongman, too had won the 1994 election with a thin majority of 3,108 votes from 26 divisions. “This means that he had secured a majority of only 119 votes per division, which is almost 45 per cent less than what Mallika got,” said a supporter of the latter.

Noorjahan’s predicament is no different as she is facing stiff resistance from the dominant Reddys in Pedakurapadu which has Muslim, Reddy, Kamma and Kapu population in equal numbers.

“Yet, Kapus and Muslims play second fiddle to Kamma and Reddy local landlords and this is where Noorjahan’s chances will take a nosedive,” an analyst said.

Ironically, Shaik Fathimunnisa Begum was the only Muslim woman who was sent to the assembly in 1972 from this constituency when Muslims were not sending their girls even to primary schools. Fathimunnisa had defeated local strongman Ganapa Ramaswamy Reddy (who by then had won three consecutive elections) with a huge majority.

When Fathimunnisa was replaced by Syed Mahboob in the 1978 election, he was defeated by Ramaswamy Reddy. “It is ridiculous to question the abilities of Muslim women. Both Mallika Begum and Noorjahan have proven themselves in electoral politics,” said a Congress party minority leader, supporting both their candidature.

Sources said Kanna Lakshminarayana, a Kapu, changed the social equations and ended the domination of two major players by winning four elections in a row. “It is to be seen whether Noorjahan, a graduate, can continue Kanna’s tradition and come out a victor,” he said. Kanna has shifted to Guntur West assembly segment this time.

Double roles galore in election drama

By Swati Reddy

If in doubt, contesting from two seats appears to be the strategy of politicians. So this election season, more leaders are adopting a risk mitigation strategy as they try to improve their winning chances.

Despite all his bravado, Prajarajyam Party (PRP) founder and supremo Chiranjeevi is contesting for two seats, followed by Devender Goud and PRP ally ‘Mana Party’ leader Kasani Gnaneshwar.

Not that this is a new phenomenon. Sometime back, N T Rama Rao of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) appeared invincible, until he was trounced. The confident Rama Rao who was then the chief minister, not only advanced the polls in 1989 but, in a move that shocked people, also contested from three assembly seats - Hindupur, Gudivada and Kalwakurthy, a symbolic move to represent the three regions Rayalaseema, Andhra and Telangana in the state.

At that time, not only was the TDP ousted from power, but NTR who had never tasted electoral defeat was humbled in Kalwakurthy, in Mahbubnagar district. J Chittaranjan Das of the Congress, who trounced NTR there earned the epithet ‘giant killer’.

Das, a former minister in the Congress government and had been lying low in recent years, has now landed in the PRP, which saw it fit to allot him the party’s ticket for the same Kalwakurthy constituency this time. The ‘giant killer’ will now face the sitting Congress legislator Y Kista Reddy to stake his claim to the seat again.

Like NTR then, two senior leaders of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) also chose to contest from two seats each in the 2004 elections. TRS president K Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR) contested from the Karimnagar Lok Sabha seat and theSiddipet assembly seat in Medak district. He wonboth but chose to give up Siddipet.

However, an over-confident Ale Narendra got a shock when he was trounced in the Bhongir assembly constituency by Uma Madhava Reddy of the TDP. As a saving grace, he won the Medak Lok Sabha constituency. “So overconfident was Narendra that he hardly toured the Bhongir constituency,” a TRS leader recalled.

Though Chiranjeevi is confident, he is still contesting the Tirupati and Palakol assembly seats. “It’s sheer strategy,” a PRP leader claimed.

Adopting a so-called strategy, former minister T Devender Goud is contesting from the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha seat and also the Ibrahimpatnam Assembly seat. Goud had earlier represented the Medchal assembly constituency which no longer exists, post delimitation.

Similarly Kasani Gnaneshwar, once a TDP leader, started his ‘Mana Party’ and recently formed an alliance with the PRP. Though lacking the stature of either NTR or Chiranjeevi, he too is indulging in the luxury of contesting from two seats. He has filed his nominations for the Chevella Lok Sabha seat and Qutbullapur assembly seat.

However this time round, KCR has taken a ‘dangerous decision’ to contest from only one seat, and has even moved from his pocket borough to contest the Mahbubnagar Lok Sabha seat, not quite a TRS bastion. Is that wise?

Party time for bamboo craftsmen in Hyderabad

By Sheena Shafia

From making bamboo baskets to effigies of Ravana, from ‘jhulas’ for Bonalu to ‘tumbdi’s’ for Diwali, bamboo craftsmen in the Old City have now set their eyes on the mega jamboree, the upcoming elections. In fact, one can already see quite a number of huge bamboo frame-anddecoration paper symbols of various political parties dotting the Sardar Mahal area of the Old City.

Elections mean a tight schedule not only for party leaders, but for bamboo work craftsmen as well. With their hands full with orders from political activists, these craftsmen, who hardly get work all round the year, end up making their annual income during the election season. Soon after the poll campaigns pick up momentum, they get busy crafting symbols of various political parties and churn out everything from kite to hand on bamboo.

According to the craftsmen, there is much demand for the electoral symbol of Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), which is a kite, though there are considerable orders filtering in from other parties like Congress, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

“We get bamboo from the markets at Attapur, Dilsukhangar and Mozzamjahi Market. Orders will start pouring in after the last date of withdrawal. Besides, independent candidates will also come in, but only after symbols are allotted to them,” said P Srinivas Mahendra, owner of 80-year-old bamboo craft shop P Yellaiah and Sons.

Srinivas, whose family has been in the business for the past eight decades, has made over 800 party symbols of MIM in the last two months. Though most of the orders are for two feet by eight feet kites, he has even made some as huge as 15 feet. The price tag varies from Rs 60 to Rs 150 per piece, depending on the paper and decorations or extra fittings like serial bulbs used. Besides the Old City neighbourhood, Srinivas also got orders to make ‘punja,’ (hand) for the Congress from Secunderabad.

“Once canvassing starts, we will get more orders,” P Chandra Sekhar, owner of another store near Telephone Exchange, Charminar, said. He is also expecting orders from the TDP’s cycle. The demand from political parties is for bamboo symbol frames and cutouts, Chandra Sekhar added.

With huge amounts being spent during this season, nobody grudges these Sardar Mahal crafstmen their business.

::: ADVERT ::: PRAJA RAJYAM PARTY

Take a pill to kill five ailments

By Muneeb Faraaz

A single pill that contains five life-saving drugs to combat bad cholesterol, high blood pressure and clotting at one go, has come closer to reality after passing its first big test.

Scientists announced that polypill, the once-a-day wonder tablet that combines cholesterol-lowering statin, aspirin and three BP lowering drugs was as effective as the drugs taken separately and had no major side effects.

The Indian and Canadian scientists, who announced their finding in the medical journal, The Lancet, on Tuesday, believe that patients suffering from or at risk of cardio-vascular diseases would better adhere to such a combination as it involved taking only one pill instead of five.

The study tested polypill on 2,053 Indians aged 48-80 years who did not have heart disease but had a single risk factor like raised BP, diabetes, obesity or smoking. It concluded that if the pill was given to this population, it would reduce the risk of heart disease by 62% and stroke by 48% because of the fall in their BP and bad cholesterol levels.

Conducted across 50 Indian centres, the study by researchers from McMaster University in Hamilton and St John’s Medical College in Bangalore confirmed in principle that these medicines were safe and tolerable when taken together and are still effective when combined in one fixeddose pill.

Lead investigator, Dr Salim Yusuf, said, “The thought that a single pill could reduce multiple cardiovascular risk factors could revolutionize heart disease prevention. Before this study, there were no data about whether it was even possible to put five active ingredients into a single pill.’’

“We found that it works. The next step would be a major trial of the polypill among people with clear risk of cardiovascular disease. We will further develop appropriate combinations of BP lowering drugs with statins and aspirin,’’ Dr Yusuf added.

Even as the world hailed the magic bullet pill, practising doctors in India weren’t as excited about polypill. Senior consultant (cardiology) at Indraprastha Apollo hospital, Dr Deepak Natarajan, said the pill would not allow flexibility to doctors in modifying drug combinations to suit individual patients.

“In India, generic drugs don’t cost much. So polypill would actually benefit western countries where drug prices are high,’’ he said.

Dr Natarajan said another danger with polypill was unnecessary medication. “For instance, doctors prescribing polypill might subject a patient to strong BP lowering drugs though he might just suffer from high cholesterol.’’

Said Dr Anoop Misra from Fortis, “My real fear is that healthy patients with a single risk factor would start imagining that popping a pill would protect them against heart diseases. They will then give up what is most crucial in preventing CVD — regular exercise and a healthy diet.’’