HNN survey: Congress, BJP Neck And Neck

By HNN Election Desk

A week is a long time in politics, they say. And what a long week it's been. HNN predictions, while admitting that "there are definite shifts in voter preferences" had said yesterday that he needed further confirmation before he could put numbers down in his charts. HNN editors, on the other hand, estimate that: Congress has lost significant ground, largely due to the loss of key allies in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Jharkhand. This creates scope for a close race between UPA and NDA, while the Third Front and others may together notch up more seats than both.



HNN solicits the readers views and comments on this survey. Please write to editor@hyderabadnews.net.

INDIA ELECTIONS 2009: ILLEGAL SPENDING

By M H Ahssan

Pre-poll illegal expenses touch an all-time high—but voters, candidates are eager votaries.

Some describe it as the third stimulus package, after two official ones, for an economy that's hardly in the pink of health. Others dismiss it as a national phenomenon. Either way, as India prepares to vote in a new government this May, the polls are also a once-in-a-five-year chance for many voters to make a quick buck. This year, election-related expenses—official and unofficial—are expected to zoom: From Rs 4,500 crore in 2004, to anything between Rs 10,000-16,000 crore.

And yes, urban as well as rural voters are expected to line up for illegal cash benefits and other freebies. Of this, 80 per cent is likely to be spent out of the pocket of individual candidates (the Election Commission limits their pre-poll expenses to Rs 25 lakh). "It's an under-estimation, but we believe that each successful candidate could spend Rs 5 crore in his or her constituency. It was half this figure in the previous national vote," says N. Bhaskara Rao, chairman of the Centre for Media Studies (CMS), an independent think-tank.

Add spending by minor candidates, and the numbers grow exponentially for each constituency.

There are 543 constituencies for the Lok Sabha, and a major one, with three or more candidates, could be worth Rs 5-16 crore in expenses. The estimates, made by CMS, are based on two surveys it conducted in 2007 and 2008 across income groups. "The spending—Rs 10,000 crore, which is the minimum we expect—is unimaginable. It's never happened at this scale before," says Rao.

What's worrying is that politicians don't bribe in the actual hope of winning. "I don't believe that Indian voters are electing the leader who pays them the most money, or selecting one who gives them more immediate gratification—a TV set, a sari or blankets," says Bhibhu Mohapatra, a Fellow with the India Development Foundation (IDF), a research outfit based in New Delhi.

Mohapatra thinks that pre-election bribes have more cynical underpinnings: "It has become a ritual, a habit, to bribe voters. A candidate cannot ensure his victory by giving a freebie or a cash 'reward'. But by not bribing at all, he ensures defeat in electoral sweepstakes," says Mohapatra. In its own study conducted in New Delhi prior to elections to the Delhi assembly last year, IDF found that almost all slum clusters and colonies were supplied with liquor and cash, in some places free food and snacks. In most clusters, the community elder was approached with the bribe.

Interestingly, the report says, "This was practised by at least three national parties in Delhi," implying that even candidates who don't expect to win use liquor "pouches" and cash—of Rs 500 per voter or thereabouts—only to ensure they stay in the running.

IDF's survey was conducted between October 18 and November 24, 2008; 3,000 households from the Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL) categories were interviewed for it.

"If Rs 25 lakh is the officially allowed limit, and Rs 5 crore is actually being spent, then the difference is what we call black or illegally generated income by politicians and parties," says Prof Arun Kumar of Jawaharlal Nehru University, who has written extensively on the black economy and authored a book on the subject. "To the extent that TV sets are given away and saris are bought for prospective women voters, we could see (the bribes) as a redistribution of that illegal wealth," he says.

With that much money floating in the system, it wouldn't be misplaced to see larger benefits, or at least some cost-savings, for the voting public. Unfortunately, the benefits of these bribes are too thinly spread out—not targeted at all, say economists—and ultimately, the sums are negligible compared with the size of the economy. They will not create any "stimulus" at all, avers Kumar. At Rs 10,000 crore, the electoral spending is about 0.2 per cent of the country's Rs 50 lakh crore GDP. "Hardly anything, it's basically a waste," he says.

Happily, at least some proportion of the Rs 10,000-16,000 crore will go into purchasing and running services—the printers, transporters, counters, election watchers, messengers, guards, billboard painters—that will actually be useful for running the election itself. Of course, the elections also funnel a "huge amount of cash" directly into rural and urban homes, says Sarabjit Singh, who heads the Anti-Money Laundering practice at business and tax advisory firm BMR. "There has been a directive to banks from the government to monitor very, very closely the cash withdrawals from ATM machines at this point of time," he says.

Singh will not hazard a guess on the size of the black economy in India—Kumar pegged it at 40 per cent of the GDP in 2000, which, he now says, would have grown to 50 per cent of the economy. But by this measure as well, the election-related expenses are not significant enough to alter prices or stimulate demand. "Keep in mind that election-related expenses occur over a very short period, say a week. And the rest is spent, legally or illegally, over a month to 50 days at most. In this way, it can enliven an economy, but the impact is terribly short-lived," says Singh.

The Election Commission itself has been struggling with political parties' and candidates' propensity to drown rupees into this whirlpool of month-long pre-poll activity. "We want to dispel the notion that the law against illegal spending is not clear enough. In fact, no person can incur any expense related to elections without the written permission of a candidate. Even supporters' expenses will be added to the overall allowable limit for a candidate," says S.K. Mendiratta, legal advisor with the EC.

With roving observers recording visible expenses and constant examination of parties' records as well as notices galore, the EC seems to be doing its bit. What's not clear is why candidates who are invisible to the electorate for the better part of five years suddenly feel the urge to "compensate" voters with bribes. More so as it quite simply doesn't work.

TOPSY TURVY ELECTIONS '09

By M H Ahssan

Allies turn foes. Enemies become friends. All calculations go awry as the UPA unravels and the NDA agonises in an election dominated by smaller parties.

The absurd has become commonplace, the venal routine, the bizarre really quite banal. Nothing is working according to the script in Election 2009. In the absence of any grand issue or great leader, there is just great chaos. There have been some thrills and spills, and both the UPA and NDA have received sharp kicks on the shin from allies.

But instead of the national parties getting a reality check, both formations continue to act in ways that appear to defy political logic. All barriers are being crossed, yesterday's friends are today's enemies, there are no rules to this game and after the great crash-landing on May 16 (when the results are announced), everyone expects the real bargaining to begin.

One would have thought that given the stability of the last two alliance governments—the NDA and UPA—coalitions would be consolidated. But first the BJP received a royal snub from the elegant Naveen Patnaik in Orissa, indicating that ideological extremism can become too heavy a cross for regional parties to carry.

The BJP at least was quite rattled at parting ways with the BJD. It is the Congress that really seems to have become almost delusional about its capacity to recover in the Hindi belt. In an election where everyone knows that alliances are the key to power, the Congress


kept making irrational demands on existing and potential allies. The result: the grand old party has made an enemy out of its staunchest secular ally, Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar, and is still friendless in Uttar Pradesh.

The UPA has begun to unravel. The Congress decision to contest seats in Bihar against the RJD-LJP front appears to be a case of cutting its nose to spite its face. We are told that Congress strategists still have memories of past grandeur and the party is beginning the process of 'regeneration' in the Hindi belt by going it alone. To most political observers, this strategy appears quite ridiculous given ground realities.

There is also no sign of Rahul Gandhi emerging at the centre of Congress affairs. Loyal Congresswallahs had ecstatically speculated that this would be Rahul's election. So far, however, we have only the BJP's Gandhi hogging the mindspace even as Sonia Gandhi has declared that Manmohan Singh is her prime ministerial candidate. Feroze Varun, the son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi, has managed to add an inglorious chapter to the family history with the most rabid anti-Muslim speeches in recent history.

His shocking "chop off their hands/sterilise the Muslims" rhetoric has also threatened to hijack the BJP's election campaign. Just when L.K. Advani and the party had decided not to raise any Hindutva issue, this Gandhi torpedoed their best-laid plans. Ever since, the BJP has been dissembling. Consider this response of former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu when Outlook asked him about Varun: "We understand his viewpoint. I also know your viewpoint. It is not our viewpoint. And there is no point in raising the same point!"

The BJP is once again caught in that all-too-familiar trap between the hankering for respectability (and more post-poll allies) and the temptation to stoke and take advantage of anti-minority emotions. The party's natural urge is to take advantage (if any) of the atavistic emotions Varun is trying to arouse. But NDA allies like the JD(U) are clearly annoyed with the Varun venom and the BJD wound is still raw. Does this mean the BJP will again fall between two stools? Does it remember that allies blamed the Gujarat riots for the NDA's defeat in 2004?

While the Big Two blunder along, it's the small parties who're getting set to play big boys in the post-poll show. cpi national secretary D. Raja has a point when he says that "what rattles a certain section the most is the possibility of Left and regional parties calling the shots. Even if the Left tally comes down, we all expect a post-poll realignment of forces where the Left gives a certain credibility." G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, a psephologist now with the BJP, articulates similar views: "I believe the national parties will get more than half the seats in Parliament.

Yet another fight for power in these elections will begin after May 16. We cannot rule out the possibility of a crisis for some days as parties scramble to get the numbers."

But the possibility of the Left or regional parties emerging top dog puts the fear of God in traditional elites and the business community. There is also an impulse in the entire political class to somehow isolate BSP supremo Mayawati who plays by her own rules. It may be impossible to do so, given that her expected tally of 30 to 40 seats upsets all calculations. Shahid Siddiqui, contesting on a BSP ticket from UP, says: "The fear of Mayawati is both real and imaginary. She's a threat to the traditional caste system and established elites, does not pander to the media or depend on corporate houses. Those who gravitate around power don't know how to approach her." Certainly, this formidable woman frightens everyone. She has so far engaged with the Third Front initiative but on condition that she be its PM candidate.

If Mayawati looms large north of the Vindhyas, down south it is the remarkable J. Jayalalitha. No one knows which way the lady will go, but few have forgotten how she tormented A.B. Vajpayee in 1998 before giving her letter of support. In the neighbourhood lurks another kingmaker who wouldn't mind being king—Chandrababu Naidu. But both he and Jayalalitha become relevant only if they pull in the numbers.

All this uncertainty has now led to real talk of a fourth or even a fifth front. One scenario is that if the UPA flounders, then many regional parties, including those in the NDA and UPA, will come together after the polls and seek outside support from the Congress. Corporate houses and some western embassies are circulating another theory that seeks to isolate the Left. It works like this. All regional parties get together and get outside support of the BJP. This would exclude only three parties who would stick to "secular principles"—the Congress, Left and the RJD while Mulayam Singh could go either way. This scenario sees NCP chief Sharad Pawar, with his links to the corporate world, as the lynchpin, if not the PM candidate. However, D. Raja has this to say: "We have heard this. But thankfully corporate houses don't decide in our democracy. Common people do."

There is only one certainty. That there will be a realignment post-May 16 when the results of this topsy-turvy election are declared.

TDP call centre calling up voters for feedback

By Ayaan Khan

It’s a common sight in call centres to witness many employees engaged in calling up potential customers to sell their products. But, here’s a call centre with a difference — the TDP call centre — set up at NTR Bhavan, the headquarters of the TDP, to gauge people’s pulse.

Around 400 employees, all youth (each hired for Rs 6,000 per month), are busy contacting people over the telephone, at the temporary call centre set up by the main Opposition party.

The youth ring up people in all the 294 Assembly segments and ask questions to seek feedback on the TDP. The TDP call centre, perhaps the first-one-of-its-kind run by any political party in the State, was started ten days ago. The callers ask some questions to people and seek their feedback.

Based on the information, the party has been finalising the candidates for various Assembly and Lok Sabha segments in the elections.

For example, after the Congress announced the list, the employees of the TDP call centre called up people and asked them their opinions regarding the Congress nominees. Later, they asked people several questions with regard to the TDP candidates — was the candidate the right person for their constituency, would he do justice to people — to seek their opinion.

The TDP call centre employees have reportedly been receiving positive responses to most of their queries to people about the TDP candidates.

“More than 60 per cent of the potential customers (read voters) are satisfied with the TDP candidates,’’ an employee working with the TDP call centre told `Express’.

However, while eliciting people’s opinions, the TDP call centre employees are not revealing their identities that they are working for a particular political party. “We are not revealing our identity. Just we are seeking feedback,’’ an employee said.

After the finalisation of candidates, the employees attached to the TDP call centre call up ‘customers’ and seek votes for the party.

“Each of us is making 50 to 60 calls per day.

We are working from 9 am to 5 pm,’’ an employee from East Godavari said. “The response from customers is good and they are cooperating with us. We politely disconnect the phone if any customer feels irritated,’’ he revealed.

A chairman of a group of corporate colleges is managing the show for the TDP.

So, don’t be surprised if you soon get a call from the TDP call centre, requesting you to vote for the TDP!

Democratic Set-Up and Democracy

By Pramod Khilery

If it is democracy it has to be only sane; prone to headache, fault lines and fits but capable of raising the bar and achieving the highest standards possible, being in sound health and rearing greatest disquisition provided measures to this effect are in place. A democratic system never guarantees an absolute Right; for that to happen we will have to revert back to righteous monarchy but makes sure that every crepuscular Wrongs is set right to the maximum push-able degree. Hence a democratic setup aims to have an ideal happy society at its core even at the expanse of a very successful one in riches.

When looked at from this view democracy paves the way for the concepts of equity and equality. This equality further can have myriad aspects to be explored but the rudimentary seeds when watered with the civil justness give rise to the tree of highest possible esteem having branches touching every section of the society.

The trunk of this tree is rooted in the capital of the nation and hence the soil of the capital will have crucial bearings on the health of the tree. More healthy and green will it be better the all encompassing shadow. This esteem is nothing but a link between the democracy and those who are being democratized by an official decree that in all senses is also a granting of consent on the part of its subjects. But still even as pious and righteous a system as democracy may be, like any other system of governance democracy too does cleave society into two parts.

The sanctity of the democracy can be gauged by which one comes first and which second. If people think they come first not their representatives then it is assertive democracy which is good but not great. A large measure of this democracy is contingent upon the intellectual level of people which broadly and quite curiously is nothing but a reflection of their representatives. Thereby much more than this assertiveness which works as a healthy dose for any democracy to grow it is the nature of assertion that determines the direction the democracy will venture into. If representatives position themselves after people it is nothing short of a utopia though along with its own share of fault lines. At the most any society can hope for bouts of these utopian moments for it is not easy to fill the lacunas and chinks in an democracy owing to its being so open and at the same time hostage to the world economic and social order. In third case if people are too acquiescent and toady and representatives too royal and dominant than democracy appears making way for another system which wears the same clothes but gives account of a different disposition. This is psephocracy.

Every feature that marks up a democratic set-up will belong to this new system also but these are the elections and their results, not the service and the satisfaction and the plum posts and perks, not the sense of achievement that seek to gain the center stage in this system. This system hovers around highfalutin celebrations but seeks to devour the reasons for these celebrations. Even with celebrations fast on our heels a large swathe of population remains indifferent and skeptical of the outcome.

Every humanized democracy paces ahead with its head aloft with dignity and eyes warm and anchored in vision deriving its power from the sturdiness of spine of election and vim of legs of sense of service and power of motivation. The two hands of justice and equality wave only in tandem with the pace of legs. So while spine carries the whole body together, individually these are the different limbs that do the quotidian work and help the body live its full existence to leverage its very being and ambiance it happens to be in. The idea of equality, especially economic one is a chimera but civil equality i.e. the societal deference for every work and modus vivendi that fits in the ethical framework of liberal intellectual minds ranging from past to present is achievable.

Now imagine we have a body with only spine and no limbs. Democracy too looks same when elections and alliances come to become the be all and end all of a democratic set-up. To get finer perspective we can also equate this state of democracy with the mental setup of a student aiming to crack an entrance examination on account of whatever he could cram in a fortnight before the exam. His buoying through the exam is bound to be proved disastrous in the long run for both candidate himself and the environment he will inhabit. Invariably conflicts will arise thanks to lack of loyalty and dedication to the environment. These very innocuous looking conflicts take on dire consequences when the desire to have a sense of purpose slips in one’s life. This conflict when engendered in political arena which even empirically is all about social service exerts undue influence on entire nation and more importantly on the very definition of service. Every so Often we see the manifestations of these conflicts when we bear witness to a politician utterly naked in his avariciousness. It is not the welfare of the society which forms the crux of a polity outwardly steeped in democracy but the greed that drives his actions and deeds. Corruption which like a waterfall falls forms top to bottom not other way round is nothing but just one offshoot of this conflict. When the conflicting position of a candidate whose cramming planted him at the wrong place in the system leads to uncharitable ways then the challenges another candidate who sought to cheat his way into the superficial but personally favorable result poses to the idea of democracy can easily be imagined.

This report by Vijay Simha, published in “Caravan”, journal of politics and culture, March 1-15, 2009, drives home at least one side of this elections dominated democracy. During a meeting of senior BJP leaders held sometime in November 2008 to choose nominees for vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha when L.K. Advani proposed the name of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to one of these seats adducing his ill health (was he giving the suggestion that an unwell person could easily be accommodated in Rajya Sabha?), Rajnath Singh, the current BJP president pointed out that if Vajpayee could step out and file his nomination to the Rajya Sabha he could do the same for Lok Sabha even and easily win the election without even campaigning given the popularity and esteem among people.

This meeting is a perfect epitome of how some political leaders do their calculations and does Rajnath Singh’s idea of democracy revolve around only filing nominations and winning elections? Didn’t his political experience make him think that winning an election from a constituency is also about taking care of it? Will Vajpayee, one of the only few statesmen among our living politicians, be able to serve his constituency deeming the health problems he is running into. The act of reducing a leader like Vajpayee into one more number in the total tally speaks not only poorly of his own party but also of the democracy which seems to have been incarcerated inside the walls of elections. Unfortunately this is just one case of many that exemplifies the ills that psephocracy brings.

Marxist revolutionary, Che Guevara had once said, “Democracy cannot consist solely of elections that are nearly always fictitious and managed by rich landowners and professional politicians.”

If we contrast this verily quote with what Aristotle had to say we will find how far the intents and ideals of democracy have moved from their original interpretations. When Aristotle said, “in democracies the poor are more powerful than the rich, because there are more of them and whatever is decided by the majority is sovereign”

did he have in mind the virtuosity of rulers or the power of awareness of people? Don’t we miss both? In most of the democratic set-ups today technically at least owing to either gerrymandering or number of candidates or parties the triumph may come even with less than one third of the total ballots cast.

What Che Guevara had said stands true today. This truth takes on even more dangerous form when a large percentage of voters happen to be either illiterate or semi literate. Because democracy allows every single citizen to have his say it all boils down to the characteristics of the majority. If majority is quiescent and inert then democracy will be nothing but a passive one. The choice of the representatives will not be governed by work done by the candidates in the interest of the society, ideological leanings, and election manifestoes but by personal factors. This results in whetting up those very ills which a democratic society in all its fairness stands to fight. Largely in our country a large percentage of election outcomes is held hostage either to anti incumbency factor or even more prevalent caste factor and religion factor thanks to BJP.

Election manifestoes are something neither we read nor our parties do take seriously. Even if they do take trouble to write one mostly it is nothing but a rehash of whatever had been written there once upon a time. In 2007 BSP leader Mayawati secured a huge majority in UP assembly elections not only without any manifesto delineating her party’s programs, policies and vision but even after publicly ridiculing the very concept of writing manifestoes. If her rustic approach and electoral calculations struck a chord with voters shall we admire her political acumen or accuse her of exploiting the weaknesses of democracy?

This weakness also have lead to criminalization of politics or as often people say politicization of criminals thanks to their election winning abilities. If a person convicted in any case other than political wins an election then it points to huge chinks in our democratic structure that needs to be dealt with greatest immediacy. A politician who in any democracy could have been a bulwark against societal ills becomes the fountain and patron of these ills instead. Worse still not only does he nurture ills and diseases but like a virus also resists the attempts at every medication and often, unfortunately even defeats them. That leaves democracy with the plight of a tamed animal tied to the peg of election rather than the liberty of a human being bound to his roots but free to roam, learn and serve.

For a democracy to be true to its definition and purpose not only do we need only party manifestoes but also strong ideological divide in the society instead of class or caste or religious divide. While caste divide abets regionalization and deigns the administration it is lopsided class divide that results in huge gaps in earnings and as we have often seen in the history it leads to frustration and even revolutions. The sad truth about revolutions that sometimes they are nothing but just a divergence leading to a path seedier than the prevailing stands even today.

So far as religious divide’s ramifications are to be said not only distant but even very recent history has evinced the venom they can spill into the vessel of the society and ghettoisations they can lead to. An ideological divide, on the other hand, often ends up as a precursor to the constructive debate in the society. That brings us to the gospel truth that debates are the leashes which a democracy should use to prevent its cart from running astray and ride smooth.

Quite sadly though any discussion of democracy involves ramblings about civic sense but somewhere the talk of ethics and morals values remains untouched. We can’t have a stronger paradox than that. It is not that toleration of other’s views and deference toward other societies is not nestled in the spirit of democracy but a skewed picture of democracy does give ample room for such discrepancies to creep in.

Here I am not talking about the religious intolerance, terrorism or self styled gurus and mullahs of ethics and moral values which we all know not only stand on the other side of democracy but even leer at it. But in contrast, think, if a software engineer of the new emerging India can kill his four year old daughter allegedly for as absurd a reason as her coming in the way of his spending quality time with his wife or a CEO of a TV channel beheads his wife or a political leader chops his wife into pieces etc then what sort of societal values are we venturing into?

If people belonging to educated or even elite class can indulge in such medieval and barbarian acts with what hope we expect people living in the recesses of poverty, gloom and darkness of illiteracy to give account of moralistic values. Isn’t it incumbent upon all of us that we call into question our own comportments and those who helm our democratic set-up? Some might want to dismiss these incidents as stray and aberrations but when acutely observed over a period of time only the thinly reported incidents even from the metros are enough to sicken us let alone digging deeper into the dark lanes of hinterland where often law faces the scimitar on the altar of ignorance or insularity.

Not only our politicians but we all stand guilty of reducing a system passed onto us by our forefathers to a mere formality. If we and especially those whose job entails this don’t squirm at the sight of a bare feet emaciated boy walking in the excruciating heat or shivering cold or a women splashing contaminated water off her body in the public or a child in an English medium public school using cuss words and expletives at the age of eight then it is not the slow pace of lumbering democracy but the fast pace of the vehicles of governors of democracy and a lack of community-hood that stands reprehensible.

Democracy may be just a political system of governance but it is humanity that propelled it to come into being. Without humanity democracy is just a body shaking but not moving and alive but not growing. It is imperative on our part that if we pretend to care for democracy we should also care for what I hold as nothing short of temple: primary schools among other things. Unfortunately the primary schools which give the child the first embrace of his life outside his mother are too clumsy and repulsive. The beginning gets as worse as it could get. It goes without saying that often it is none but democracy that bears the burnt of an adulthood grown out of uncomfortable or absent embraces.

This all having been said still we have some reasons to take pride in whatever muddling we have done through last six decades. Not only have we succeeded in preventing the fabric of democracy from ripping apart completely but have a system which needs overhauling, rectification and makeover but is indispensable. As the elections for 15th Lok Sabha draw near once again we will get to see this festival of democracy being celebrated across the India. I hope soon we will realize that election is a question fundamentally tied to the spirit of democracy asking us the basic tenets of a democracy. That is how it reminds us of the answers we have to look for. Though answer of the ballot will determine only the fate of the symbol that represents the question it is the debate about what could or should have been the answer or who the answerer is or what does the symbol represent and more importantly what our answer is will determine the flowering or wilting of democratic values.

Exclusive: Will This Poll Change India?

By Rajinder Puri

Making poll forecasts is a hazardous exercise best left to psephologists. Speculating on post-poll politics is even dicier. And yet, the critical phase of transition through which India is passing makes forethought imperative. Can the coming poll prove to be a turning point in India’s transition? Circumstances suggest it can, but not in the manner that most politicians hope.

Four factors suggest that post-poll India could be poised for a paradigm shift. First, this election will likely have the heaviest turnout, with the largest youth percentage. This spells unprecedented voter involvement. The election itself is being fought on trivia bereft of real national issues. After elections high public expectations could plunge to acute frustration.

Secondly, some recent events suggest the distinct possibility of the Congress tally not exceeding a hundred. If that happens will the Dynasty survive as its centre of power? If it does not, will the Congress survive without the dynasty as its rallying point? For six decades and even earlier the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has held the Congress in its palm. This created a mindset and a debilitating culture that has over the years afflicted the entire political class. If the Dynasty ceases to call the shots the Congress to survive will have to reinvent itself. Mr. Rahul Gandhi reportedly is thinking on the lines of reviving the party as a single national force through work at the grassroots. That is a very long haul that would make the Congress of little relevance to the current challenges facing the nation. For the immediate the demise of the Congress would profoundly affect political attitudes in all parties.

Thirdly, by present indications post-poll India might well get its most fractured Parliament. That could spell weak governance, confused direction and instability. Even if the NDA succeeds in getting the highest tally, the several self-goals shot by the BJP make Mr. LK Advani’s choice as next PM exceedingly doubtful. The party’s endorsement of Mr. Varun Gandhi might have helped consolidate the hold on its traditional vote bank. It might also have fatally isolated it from all potential allies required to form a coalition government. The allies might demand a price, and the Prime Minister’s chair could be it.

Fourthly, the events across the border suggest the increasing possibility of an impending crisis of such magnitude that could overwhelm a weak Indian government unable to summon an effective response. The recent cross border incursion by terrorists in Kashmir that led to the death of 8 soldiers provides clear indication that while a part of the Pakistan establishment is unwilling to change, the rest is unable to change. The disclosure by The New York Times quoting official sources saying that there is continuing and deep complicity of the ISI with terrorists dashes the last hope of Pakistan abandoning adventurism. It is undeniable that the Obama administration appears to be quite out of its depth on how to handle its so-called ally in the war on terror. Therefore little hope should be placed on it. But Pakistan can implode. The different sections of society within it are incompatible. And there is no force in sight with the will and purpose to neutralize Pakistan’s self-destructive elements.

How would the possible disintegration of Pakistan affect India? It is common to hear stupid and thoughtless chatter that the destruction of Pakistan would be welcome. But if Pakistan were to break up, what then? Who would pick up its pieces? Do armchair strategists have the faintest idea about how India in that dreadful situation could safeguard its security? Or would they be complacent about some big power wielding final authority in Lahore and Karachi? Could a weak Indian government effectively face up to the challenge militarily and diplomatically?

All these trends suggest that after the election a paradigm change cannot be ruled out. The situation could make the need for a strong government imperative. Poll trends indicate the emergence of a weak government unavoidable. Something will have to give. Already business is feeling the heat of bad governance. The demands for black money funds by political parties during the current poll campaign add to its woes. Little wonder that Tata Communication Chairman Subodh Bhargava is already favoring a switch to the presidential form of government. After this general election the political situation and the public mood may impel very serious rethinking.

India’s Middle Class Attempts Political Empowerment

By Subhash Kapila

“The Great Indian Middle Class Needs To Politically Empower Itself” was the title of my Column of March 12, 2006. It was written with the aim of awakening India’s over 300 million strong middle class from their apathy to matters political and thereby letting the political dynamics of India to be controlled by political dynasties living in cocoons divorced from the real pulse of India.

The political apathy of the Indian middle class has so far allowed the Indian political space to be taken over by a motley crowd of corrupt, tainted and wheeler- dealer politicians with no national commitment or vision to the advancement of India. In the run-up to General Elections 2009 there is the first flickering of hope as a number of upper middle class professionals and social activists have entered the political fray hoping to transform the quality of India’s polity.

Some excerpts from my Column of three years ago need to be reproduced for the benefit of India’s middle class on the eve of the General Elections, and these are:

If the “Great Indian Middle Class” sincerely believes that India deserves a better Government and better governance then it is high time that they politically empower themselves.

India’s Great Indian Middle Class” should open their eyes and realize how much of a potent political force they can emerge with their 30% voting strength.

The “Great Indian Middle Class” by their active participation in the political process could counterbalance the strength of the existing other 30% ( 18% Dalits and 12% Indian Muslims)

In the process they could contribute to bring into political power a better class of politicians and a higher class of political leaders with vision and integrity.
A highly educated and economically prosperous middle class provides the backbone of an advanced nation and in the case of a developing economy like India it provides shoulder and the muscle on which the nation climbs the trajectory of power.

It is heartening to note that for a few months now some impactive high visibility advertisements have figured on India’s TV Channels sponsored by India’s big business houses highlighting the need to go out and vote on Election Day.

India’s TV Channel debates seem however to be skeptical of leading business professionals and corporate heads standing for elections as independents rather than on some major political party tickets going by the line of questioning they adopt to grill these middle class brave-hearts who have taken the plunge with a commitment to transform the Indian political scene irrespective of the outcome of result

Notwithstanding the same most of them came better off than the TV anchors who grilled them on political issues. They were transparent unlike normal shifty Indian politicians and exuded a sincerity of purpose and also had visionary perspectives on the political transformation of India.

Some like Meera Sanyal, CEO of ABN-AMRO Bank who is contesting from Mumbai was frank enough to state that her decision to contest the Elections was prompted by the terrorist attacks of Mumbai 9/11 and the sheer political apathy for effective crisis management by the political class. As the daughter of a former Indian Navy Admiral she not only displayed political grit to challenge the political decay in India but also a certain finesse both in manner and oratory. The same applies for others like her who have emerged in Mumbai and Andhra and elsewhere to challenge political heavyweights.

The Indian political class of all hues for their vested political compulsions is fighting shy of making Pakistani Islamic Jihadi terrorism as an election issue but it was an event which had the unintended consequences of igniting Indian nationalism much to the dislike of the Congress Party and its so-called secularist allies. On election day one would not be surprised that this issue weighs heavily on the choices that voters make.

Lastly, I for one would like to salute all those who have decided to take the plunge in the electoral battle next month imbued not with the prospects of personal political gains but motivated by a strong inner voice that “The Great Indian Middle Class” can no longer permit India’s political agenda be hijacked by unscrupulous contemporary politicians and a beginning has to be made to bring about a qualitative transformation of Indian politics.

DELAYED START? RECESSION IMPACT ON EDUCATION

By M h Ahssan & Swati Reddy

WITH THE FINANCIAL CRUNCH HITTING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES HARD,AN INCREASING NUMBER OF YOUNG GRADUATES ARE FLOCKING TOWARDS BSCHOOLS TO BIDE THEIR TIME AND GET THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES ONCE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY RECOVERS. HOWEVER, EXPERTS STILL MAINTAIN THAT AN MBA IS BEST DONE AFTER GAINING A FEW YEARS OF WORK EXPERIENCE.

Anumber of internationally well-known Bschools are increasingly admitting students with fewer years of work experience and even fresh graduates to their MBA programmes. Young students these days too, want to pursue their MBAs earlier on, so as to accelerate their career advancement. However, the key question here is: which is the right time to enroll for an MBA abroad? Is it wise to invest huge sums of money in an international education when the employment scenario is uncertain or is it wiser to gain a few years of work experience and then pursue an MBA?

AN INDIVIDUAL CHOICE
Says Rosemaria Martinelli, Associate Dean for Student Recruitment and Admissions at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, “The right time to pursue an MBA may vary according to a person’s characteristics and development. Having said that, it’s extremely important for students to gain some years of full-time work experience, that may be as little as a year and a half or as long as 14 years, so as to test drive their skills. But the value proposition of a full-time MBA is to capitalise enough work experience not only so that you know where you’re headed but also so that you can make maximum contribution to the classroom and select the right courses and can effectively navigate through the flexible curriculum.” A few years of work experience not only makes you more focused but also helps you to make the best of the classroom atmosphere.

Dustin Cornwell, Director of Admissions and Recruiting, Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, De-Paul University, corroborates, “People pursue an MBA to gain professional advancement, make more money and achieve greater heights of success. A person who waits to pursue his/ her management studies after gaining say five years of work experience, can expect to benefit more not only in terms of being offered a higher salary packet but also in terms of being offered more opportunities, as compared to someone who is a fresh graduate.

A few years of work experience can prove to be advantageous in terms of sharpening one’s focus, exposing one to his/ her likes and dislikes and getting a clearer picture of one’s future goal, that can eventually help one maximise his/ her classroom experience. Yet, some fresh graduates do make it to some coveted Bschools because their reasons for pursuing an MBA at that particular point in time are clear. They have a clear picture of their career goals in mind and obviously gain a right to admission.”

TALENT TRIUMPHS
Freshers do not only have to convince the admissions authority of their decision but also need to have displayed exceptional adcademic as well as leadership skills during their college days in order to make it to a good Bschool. Confirms, Tim Westerbeck, Managing Director and Principal at Lipman Hearne and a foremost authority in the field of higher education, “Unlike earlier, a number of elite Bschools do accept a certain per cent of students with less work experience to their programmes now. But these students are academically brilliant.”

Martinelli agrees that a typical applicant who is admitted straight after his/ her undergraduate studies will be very different from most applicants. She elaborates, “He/ she will have been enormously successful in his/ her academic endeavours, be it in terms of GPA, GMAT and TOEFL scores, or in terms of displaying leadership qualities and being closely involved with clubs or student government sororities. They will have had undertaken significant internships and will demonstrate high intellectual curiosity much beyond their years. They will also be direct and clear about ‘why an MBA now’ versus the ‘future’.”

PARTING SHOT
Says Martinelli, “One of the most crucial prerequisites of pursuing an MBA is to have a strong awareness of yourself, of who you really are, and what your future plans are. You also need to know for sure as to why you wish to pursue an MBA at a particular time and not later? However, all this is hard to do at 22.” This does not mean that pursuing an MBA early on does not have any advantages. Says Sameer Tejani, who attended the MBA programme at Fisher Business School, Ohio State University, after working for a year and a half with a boutique consultancy in Mumbai, “As a fresh graduate you get used to the classroom setting more easily than those who have worked for a long period of time. Academicallyspeaking too, some of the content, especially analysis or math related, may be similar to the content you studied at your undergraduate degree.”

But when other students with longer years of work experience talk about real life instances, where the concepts being discussed are applicable, fresh graduates may not have that much to offer. So, try and gain some experience before taking the plunge!