Allies turn foes. Enemies become friends. All calculations go awry as the UPA unravels and the NDA agonises in an election dominated by smaller parties.
The absurd has become commonplace, the venal routine, the bizarre really quite banal. Nothing is working according to the script in Election 2009. In the absence of any grand issue or great leader, there is just great chaos. There have been some thrills and spills, and both the UPA and NDA have received sharp kicks on the shin from allies.
But instead of the national parties getting a reality check, both formations continue to act in ways that appear to defy political logic. All barriers are being crossed, yesterday's friends are today's enemies, there are no rules to this game and after the great crash-landing on May 16 (when the results are announced), everyone expects the real bargaining to begin.
One would have thought that given the stability of the last two alliance governments—the NDA and UPA—coalitions would be consolidated. But first the BJP received a royal snub from the elegant Naveen Patnaik in Orissa, indicating that ideological extremism can become too heavy a cross for regional parties to carry.
The BJP at least was quite rattled at parting ways with the BJD. It is the Congress that really seems to have become almost delusional about its capacity to recover in the Hindi belt. In an election where everyone knows that alliances are the key to power, the Congress
kept making irrational demands on existing and potential allies. The result: the grand old party has made an enemy out of its staunchest secular ally, Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar, and is still friendless in Uttar Pradesh.
The UPA has begun to unravel. The Congress decision to contest seats in Bihar against the RJD-LJP front appears to be a case of cutting its nose to spite its face. We are told that Congress strategists still have memories of past grandeur and the party is beginning the process of 'regeneration' in the Hindi belt by going it alone. To most political observers, this strategy appears quite ridiculous given ground realities.
There is also no sign of Rahul Gandhi emerging at the centre of Congress affairs. Loyal Congresswallahs had ecstatically speculated that this would be Rahul's election. So far, however, we have only the BJP's Gandhi hogging the mindspace even as Sonia Gandhi has declared that Manmohan Singh is her prime ministerial candidate. Feroze Varun, the son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi, has managed to add an inglorious chapter to the family history with the most rabid anti-Muslim speeches in recent history.
His shocking "chop off their hands/sterilise the Muslims" rhetoric has also threatened to hijack the BJP's election campaign. Just when L.K. Advani and the party had decided not to raise any Hindutva issue, this Gandhi torpedoed their best-laid plans. Ever since, the BJP has been dissembling. Consider this response of former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu when Outlook asked him about Varun: "We understand his viewpoint. I also know your viewpoint. It is not our viewpoint. And there is no point in raising the same point!"
The BJP is once again caught in that all-too-familiar trap between the hankering for respectability (and more post-poll allies) and the temptation to stoke and take advantage of anti-minority emotions. The party's natural urge is to take advantage (if any) of the atavistic emotions Varun is trying to arouse. But NDA allies like the JD(U) are clearly annoyed with the Varun venom and the BJD wound is still raw. Does this mean the BJP will again fall between two stools? Does it remember that allies blamed the Gujarat riots for the NDA's defeat in 2004?
While the Big Two blunder along, it's the small parties who're getting set to play big boys in the post-poll show. cpi national secretary D. Raja has a point when he says that "what rattles a certain section the most is the possibility of Left and regional parties calling the shots. Even if the Left tally comes down, we all expect a post-poll realignment of forces where the Left gives a certain credibility." G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, a psephologist now with the BJP, articulates similar views: "I believe the national parties will get more than half the seats in Parliament.
Yet another fight for power in these elections will begin after May 16. We cannot rule out the possibility of a crisis for some days as parties scramble to get the numbers."
But the possibility of the Left or regional parties emerging top dog puts the fear of God in traditional elites and the business community. There is also an impulse in the entire political class to somehow isolate BSP supremo Mayawati who plays by her own rules. It may be impossible to do so, given that her expected tally of 30 to 40 seats upsets all calculations. Shahid Siddiqui, contesting on a BSP ticket from UP, says: "The fear of Mayawati is both real and imaginary. She's a threat to the traditional caste system and established elites, does not pander to the media or depend on corporate houses. Those who gravitate around power don't know how to approach her." Certainly, this formidable woman frightens everyone. She has so far engaged with the Third Front initiative but on condition that she be its PM candidate.
If Mayawati looms large north of the Vindhyas, down south it is the remarkable J. Jayalalitha. No one knows which way the lady will go, but few have forgotten how she tormented A.B. Vajpayee in 1998 before giving her letter of support. In the neighbourhood lurks another kingmaker who wouldn't mind being king—Chandrababu Naidu. But both he and Jayalalitha become relevant only if they pull in the numbers.
All this uncertainty has now led to real talk of a fourth or even a fifth front. One scenario is that if the UPA flounders, then many regional parties, including those in the NDA and UPA, will come together after the polls and seek outside support from the Congress. Corporate houses and some western embassies are circulating another theory that seeks to isolate the Left. It works like this. All regional parties get together and get outside support of the BJP. This would exclude only three parties who would stick to "secular principles"—the Congress, Left and the RJD while Mulayam Singh could go either way. This scenario sees NCP chief Sharad Pawar, with his links to the corporate world, as the lynchpin, if not the PM candidate. However, D. Raja has this to say: "We have heard this. But thankfully corporate houses don't decide in our democracy. Common people do."
There is only one certainty. That there will be a realignment post-May 16 when the results of this topsy-turvy election are declared.
No comments:
Post a Comment