AP power minister faces crisis on his own turf

By M H Ahssan

The wind seems to be blowing against Mohd Shabbir Ali in Kamareddy assembly constituency. The ‘power minister’ in the YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s cabinet looks like powerless what with his brother and ‘chinna minister’ as he is being called in the local political circles, Mohd Nayeem playing spoilsport.

Sources said Shabbir is facing greater hurdles this time round because of his brother’s autocratic functioning in the constituency. “In the name of the minister, Nayeem was striking large contracts and raking in huge moolah,” a local Congress leader not wanting to be named alleged.

With the minister not accessible to party workers, it was Nayeem who was calling the shots even in Kamareddy party matters. “The chinna minister has not only damaged the reputation of Shabbir Ali but also that of the party in the eyes of the public and workers,” a minority leader of the party told HNN.

Things have come to such a pass that workers and local leaders were finding it difficult to approach the minister because of Nayeem, he said. Though Shabbir Ali is branded as a close follower of chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, no key nominated post was given to his followers, much to their chagrin.

That the minister was facing the wrath of the party workers was out in full public view at Domakonda recently when the cadre grilled him during the mandal-level meeting on Nayeem’s “extra” role in the party. “The minister was clueless when they cornered him on Nayeem,” a party insider said.

Though the minister — on a number of occasions — has claimed that he has developed the constituency on all fronts, his promise to bring Godavari waters to Kamareddy has remained a pipedream, which could go against him this time. Of the 1,96,516 voters in Kamareddy segment, Muslims account for over 30,000.

Though Shabbir has emerged as a “tall leader” in the YSR government, the Telangana region’s minority leader is also facing a serious threat from his Telugu Desam Party opponent Gampa Goverdhan. “Goverdhan has gained a lot of goodwill among the public in the last five years and it won’t be a surprise if he floors the minister in this prestigious boxing bout,” an analysts said.

It may be recalled that Shabbir was defeated by Goverdhan once — in the 1994 election. Though he won the 2004 election with 52,000-vote majority against BJP’s Uppunuthala Muralidhar Goud, Shabbir’s chances look bleak this time, say party sources.

He was first elected as an MLA from Kamareddy in 1989 and had lost to TDP candidate Yousuf Ali in the 1999 polls.

Hyderabad campaigns add a dash of humour

By M H Ahssan

Political parties in election mode in the the state and desperate to grab power are displaying a great sense of humour to show their rivals in bad light albeit hitting them below the belt. The fight is in full public display on the various Telugu channels.

Here are some samples: In a poll campaign advertisement titled “Satya Peetam”, TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu (shown only as a dark shadowy image to indicate that it’s him) is being subjected to a lie detector test. In the ad, he admits that his arch rival chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy has achieved what he never could and that Reddy is sure to win the polls again.

The TDP think tank swung into action to counter this hugely popular and comic advertisement. In the TDP ad, a similar shadowy figure appears declaring himself to be Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s ‘aatma’. This counter-attack from the TDP is more gripping because Reddy sings a Telugu rap song with his characteristic mannerisms and admits to his sin: wholesale corruption. He also declares that if the ‘aatma’ could vote, he would certainly vote only for Chandrababu Naidu. In the end, he says: ‘Amma, Ayya, Babu Zindabad’.

In both the Congress and the TDP ads, the voices of Reddy and Naidu have been perfectly imitated, what with hordes of artistes available these days who have perfected the art.

The poll campaign has got interesting because of the other advertisements too. On the lines of the once hugely popular KBC, the Congress has come out with an ad titled ‘ R a n d i Gyanam Pondandi’ that depicts Chand r ab abu Naidu as a backstabber. The person posed a question asking him to select a backstabber from four choices zeroes on Chandrababu Naidu. Other choices includes names like Brutus and Aurangzeb.

In yet another Congress ad, titled ‘NTR Aatma Garjana’, a clipping of N T Rama Rao is shown heaping abuses on Chandrababu Naidu.

When the TDP came out with an ad titled ‘Lokam Kodai Koosthundhi’ showing a two chicks discussing how to attack the Congress, the Congress lost no time in coming up with a counter. In the Congress ad, a rishi who finds the two chicks sprinkles water on them to reveal their true identity - they turn into two foxes and the face of one of them resembles Chandrababu Naidu’s.

While humour appears to be the forte of the Congress, the TDP made use of the visuals of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, finance minister K Rosaiah and Mahila Congress chief Ganga Bhavani, and minister J C Diwakar Reddy’s brother J C Prabhakar Reddy using abusive language. And in sharp contrast, Chandrababu Naidu is shown as someone with a heart of love showering affection on people.

While the TDP and the Congress are trying to outwit each other, the Prajarajyam Party (PRP) too has now joined the fray. But devoid of any theatrics, filmstar Chiranjeevi’s party is straight harping on ‘change’.

And so the Congress list was announced

By Preeti Singh

And so the Congress list was finally announced. The recent hustle bustle at Gandhi Bhavan, the Congress center here in Hyderabad, immediately subsided. Some couldn't believe their luck. The disgruntled ones, denied a ticket, packed their bags and left for their respective constituencies to participate in the "team" effort of bringing the Congress back to power in Andhra Pradesh.

A few days before the list was announced, the AICC General Secretary, Veerappa Moily, came to town to have a closed door meeting with the Andhra Pradesh Congess Committee President D Srinivas and the Chief Minister YSR Reddy( better known as the DS-YS duo). While I was trying to get a reaction from Mr Moily on his coalition with Mamata didi in the east, I made my way - rather stealthily - to his hotel room...only to be confronted by dozens of ticket aspirants, each with a bouquet of flowers (the bigger, the better), a folder of documents and boxes of sweets. While I made my way through the swarm, one of them looked at me and remarked in characteristic Andhra Telugu, roughly translated as 'national media is here as well. Madam, will you please show Mr Moily my file. I even have details of my competitor's wrong doings in my region'.

So each of them had done their home work well. After all, now was the time that their efforts of last five years were to culminate. Finally, after much smiling and flaunting my channel logo, I gained access to Moily saar and heard him say firmly, "No one should come to Delhi. I will blacklist anyone who comes to Delhi."

So who are the lucky ones to be favoured by the DS-YS duo?

While YSR has chosen to remain with his previous constituency of Pullivendula, he has gifted his son Jagan Mohan Reddy, his 'family' seat of Kaddapah. What's interesting to note is that the usually reclusive Mr Jagan had decided to hold a press conference, not so long ago, to clear himself of his alleged ties with a certain not-so-popular IT icon, a certain Raju. And had tactfully, much like his father, dodged questions on him joining politics saying, "Honestly, I'm not too sure, for I am a businessman first."

Well though the list retains most of its sitting MPs, there were massive apprehensions about Madhu Yashki Goud, the Nizamabad MP, being able to retain his seat, considering APCC Prez, DS's interest in it for himself. Party sources say that DS-YS had two different lists of their chosen candidates and it was Moily who had to step in as peacemaker.

And while the list was being announced in Delhi, at the same time, back in Hyderabad, Prajarajyam supremo Chiranjeevi was holding his first public meeting in the state capital. Large crowds descended, a characteristic trait of his public meetings, to meet their Chiranjeevi anna. Chiru made most of the moment by pointing out the lack of Backward Castes in Congress's list and promised to give at least 100 Assembly seats to them. While the crowd whistled, hooted and threatened to break the barriers around the media centre, I couldn't help wondering how many of these cheerleaders would become voters?

For now, Andhra Pradesh's attention is focussed on its major opposition party. Or is it parties? Telugu Desam chief Chandrababu Naidu is yet to find the answer, given that his so-called ally, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti is threatening to pull out of "the Grand Alliance", every other day. Even after days of discussions, and closed door meetings, when asked about their seat sharing agreement, the TDP and TRS still give the rather enigmatic answers that they gave almost five months ago, when they decided to fight the Congress together. "Every alliance has a few issues over seat sharing, we are discussing and we will positively announce our list of candidates soon."

In fact, even on Wednesday, we were standing outside the Telangana Bhavan (TRS Office) expecting K Chandrashekhar Rao to announce the snapping of ties any moment, but a few minutes later, we were told that KCR has gone for a meeting with Chandrababu (yet again!). Naidu does realise that it would be catastrophic for him if the TRS left him at this point while the TRS is also aware that their credibility , which is being questioned already, might suffer if the alliance breaks down.

So now all would-be netajis have gone scurrying to their constituencies to ask for votes. As a senior party leader, admitted in a lighter vein, "do-chaar mahino ki toh bath hai, phir wapas yahin (Hyderabad) aake aaram karenge." (Just a matter of two months. Afterwards, we will come back and relax in Hyderabad.)

Did somebody say our elected leaders believe in working for the people? Jai Democracy!

International Labor Day 2009

By Sarathi Dev

International Workers’ Day (a name used interchangeably with May Day) is a celebration of the social and economic achievements of the international labor movement. May Day commonly sees organized street demonstrations by hundreds of thousands of working people and their labor unions throughout Europe and most of the rest of the world — though, as noted below, in neither the United States nor Canada.

International Workers’ Day is the commemoration of the Haymarket Riot in Chicago in 1886; in 1889, the first congress of the Second International, meeting in Paris for the centennial of the French Revolution and the Exposition Universelle (1889), following a proposal by Raymond Lavigne, called for international demonstrations on the 1890 anniversary of the Chicago protests. These were so successful that May Day was formally recognized as an annual event at the International’s second congress in 1891. The May Day Riots of 1894 and May Day Riots of 1919 occurred subsequently. In 1904, the International Socialist Conference meeting in Amsterdam called on “all Social Democratic Party organizations and trade unions of all countries to demonstrate energetically on May First for the legal establishment of the 8-hour day, for the class demands of the proletariat, and for universal peace.” As the most effective way of demonstrating was by striking, the congress made it “mandatory upon the proletarian organizations of all countries to stop work on May 1, wherever it is possible without injury to the workers.”

In the United States, however, the official Federal holiday for the “working man” is Labor Day, the first Monday in September. This day was promoted by the Central Labor Union and the Knights of Labor organized the first parade in New York City. The first Labor Day celebration was held on September 5, 1882, and was organized by the Knights of Labor. The Knights began holding it every year and called for it to be a national holiday, but this was opposed by other labor unions who wanted it held on May Day (like it is everywhere else in the world). After the Haymarket Square riot in May, 1886, President Cleveland feared that commemorating Labor Day on May 1 could become an opportunity to commemorate the riots. Thus he moved in 1887 to support the Labor Day that the Knights supported.

World Earth Day 2009

By Kajol Singh

On April 22, 20 million Americans took to the streets, parks, and auditoriums to demonstrate for a healthy, sustainable environment. Denis Hayes, the national coordinator, and his youthful staff organized massive coast-to-coast rallies. Thousands of colleges and universities organized protests against the deterioration of the environment. Groups that had been fighting against oil spills, polluting factories and power plants, raw sewage, toxic dumps, pesticides, freeways, the loss of wilderness, and the extinction of wildlife suddenly realized they shared common values.

Earth Day 1970 achieved a rare political alignment, enlisting support from Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, city slickers and farmers, tycoons and labor leaders. The first Earth Day led to the creation of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered Species acts.

Sen. Nelson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom -- the highest honor given to civilians in the United States -- for his role as Earth Day founder.

As 1990 approached, a group of environmental leaders asked Denis Hayes to organize another big campaign. This time, Earth Day went global, mobilizing 200 million people in 141 countries and lifting the status of environmental issues on to the world stage. Earth Day 1990 gave a huge boost to recycling efforts worldwide and helped pave the way for the 1992 United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

As the millennium approached, Hayes agreed to spearhead another campaign, this time focused on global warming and a push for clean energy. Earth Day 2000 combined the big-picture feistiness of the first Earth Day with the international grassroots activism of Earth Day 1990. For 2000, Earth Day had the Internet to help link activists around the world. By the time April 22 rolled around, 5,000 environmental groups around the world were on board, reaching out to hundreds of millions of people in a record 184 countries. Events varied: A talking drum chain traveled from village to village in Gabon, Africa, for example, while hundreds of thousands of people gathered on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., USA.

Earth Day 2000 sent the message loud and clear that citizens the world 'round wanted quick and decisive action on clean energy.

Now, the fight for a clean environment continues. We invite you to be a part of this history and a part of Earth Day. Discover energy you didn't even know you had. Feel it rumble through the grass roots under your feet and the technology at your fingertips. Channel it into building a clean, healthy, diverse world for generations to come.

WORLD HEALTH DAY 2009

By M H Ahssan

World Health Day 2009 focuses on the safety of health facilities and the readiness of health workers who treat those affected by emergencies. Health centres and staff are critical lifelines for vulnerable people in disasters - treating injuries, preventing illnesses and caring for people's health needs.

They are cornerstones for primary health care in communities – meeting everyday needs, such as safe childbirth services, immunizations and chronic disease care that must continue in emergencies. Often, already fragile health systems are unable to keep functioning through a disaster, with immediate and future public health consequences.

This year, WHO and international partners are underscoring the importance of investing in health infrastructure that can withstand hazards and serve people in immediate need. They are also urging health facilities to implement systems to respond to internal emergencies, such as fires, and ensure the continuity of care.

Emergencies: global and local impact
Wars, cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, disease outbreaks, famine, radiological incidents and chemical spills – all are emergencies that, invariably, impact heavily on public health. Internal emergencies in health facilities – such as fires and loss of power or water – can damage buildings and equipment and affect staff and patients. In conflicts, reasons for hospital breakdowns include staff being forced to leave due to insecurity and the looting of equipment and drugs.

In 2008, 321 natural disasters killed 235 816 people – a death toll that was almost four times higher than the average annual total for the seven previous years. This increase was due to just two events. Cyclone Nargis left 138 366 people dead or missing in Myanmar, and a major earthquake in south-western China's Sichuan province killed 87 476 people, according to the United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Asia, the worst-affected continent, was home to nine of the world’s top 10 countries for disaster-related deaths. Along with other weather-related events, floods remained one of the most frequent disasters last year, according to UNISDR. Conflicts around the globe have also led to great human suffering and have stretched health care services to the extreme.

Disasters also exact a devastating economic toll. In 2008, disasters cost an estimated US$ 181 billion – more than twice the US$ 81 billion annual average for 2000–2007. The Sichuan earthquake was estimated to cost some US$ 85 billion in damages, and Hurricane Ike in the United States cost some US$ 30 billion.

"The dramatic increase in human and economic losses from disasters in 2008 is alarming. Sadly, these losses could have been substantially reduced if buildings in China, particularly schools and hospitals, had been built to be more earthquake-resilient. An effective early warning system with good community preparedness could have also saved many lives in Myanmar if it had been implemented before Cyclone Nargis," said Salvano Briceno, the director of UNISDR.

Although only 11% of the people exposed to natural hazards live in developing countries, they account for more than 53% of global deaths due to natural disasters. The differences in impact suggest there is great potential to reduce the human death toll caused by natural disasters in developing countries – and that the key ingredient in these tragedies is human inaction.

This is only one part of the picture. There are many smaller-scale events that inflict an even greater toll in terms of human suffering, such as in the case of vehicle accidents and fires. Road traffic crashes kill 1.2 million people annually, or more than 3200 people a day, while a further 20–50 million people are injured or disabled every year. At least 90% of road and fire fatalities occur in low- and middle-income countries. There are also 300 000 deaths each year from fires alone.

Outbreaks of communicable diseases can spark emergencies that cause widespread death and suffering. In the 12 months up to 31 May 2008, WHO verified 162 outbreaks of infectious disease in 75 countries worldwide. More than a third of the outbreaks occurred in Africa. They included cholera, other diarrhoeal diseases, measles, haemorrhagic fevers and other severe emerging diseases.

"The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement (commonly linked to conflict)." Even a few cases of a given disease can give rise to the perception that the public faces a grave health risk, which can lead to major political, social and economic consequences.

Infectious diseases are major causes of death and illness in children in conflict settings, especially among refugees and the internally displaced.

How emergencies threaten health facilities and delivery of care?
Apart from their effects on people, emergencies can pose huge threats to hospitals, clinics and other health facilities. Structural and infrastructural damage may be devastating exactly at the time when health facilities are most needed. Health workers have been killed in collapsing hospitals. The number of other deaths and injuries is compounded when a hospital is destroyed or can function only partially. Health facilities should be the focus for assistance when disaster strikes but, if they are damaged or put out of action, the sick and injured have nowhere to get help.

The 2003 Algerian earthquake rendered 50% of health facilities in the affected region non-functional due to damage. In Pakistan's most-affected areas during the 2005 earthquake, 49% of health facilities were completely destroyed, from sophisticated hospitals to rural clinics and drug dispensaries. The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami affected national and local health systems that provided health services for millions of people. In Indonesia's northern Aceh province 61% of health facilities were damaged.

Despite international laws, health facilities continue to be targeted or used for military operations in conflicts. Health facilities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Gaza Strip are among those that have been caught in the line of fire.

An emergency may be limited to the health facility infrastructure – for example, fire damage, power cut or loss of water supply. Chemical and radiological emergencies in or near a health facility can also disrupt the delivery of care. In addition, emergencies threaten health staff – the doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers and other staff working to save lives. When a hospital collapses, or an artillery shell destroys a ward or an ambulance, health staff are killed or injured. When staff are incapacitated and cannot do their work, health care is further interrupted.

Even if health facilities themselves are not affected during disease outbreaks and epidemics, their services and provision of safe care may be. Increased demands for services and a decreased workforce can impact on health care by disrupting communications, supplies and transport. Continuity of care is then in turn disrupted, including for chronic diseases like HIV and tuberculosis.

If measures to prevent and control infection are not effective, health-care facilities may act as "amplifiers" of outbreaks, generating cases of the disease among other patients or health-care workers and further decreasing the capacity to provide services.

Power cuts linked to disasters may disrupt water treatment and supply plants, thereby increasing the risk of waterborne diseases and affecting proper hospital functioning, including preserving the vaccine cold chain. A massive power outage in New York in 2003 was followed by an increase in diarrhoeal illness.

Why keep health facilities safe?
Safe health facilities in emergencies are a collective responsibility
Hospitals are more than just buildings. They are a vital asset at the heart of a community, the place where often life starts and ends. Due to the central role played by hospitals in our communities, we all share the responsibility of making sure they are resilient in the face of emergencies. Below are three reasons as to why we must make hospitals safe in emergencies.

1. Save lives, protect health
As they are occupied 24 hours a day, hospitals cannot be evacuated easily. They must remain working if their occupants – especially the most vulnerable such as newborn babies and patients in intensive care – are to survive. When the work of hospitals and other health facilities is disrupted or their buildings are damaged, both urgent and routine health care is interrupted and may be halted altogether – leaving the sick and injured without the care that they need.

Health "systems" rely on a range of public, private and nongovernmental facilities to work together to serve the community. In times of emergency, this is even more important. Hospitals, primary health care centres, laboratories, pharmacies and blood banks work with other non-health sectors, including energy, roads and transport, and the police to ensure the continuity of health services.

Health facilities are safe havens for people during an emergency. Hospitals and their staff must be regarded by all parties – particularly combatants during conflicts – as neutral and must not be subjected to any form of violence. Sadly, the provisions of international humanitarian law in this regard are often not respected. During emergencies, health facilities play a vital role. They:

provide emergency care to the injured (e.g. surgery and blood transfusions) and to the critically ill – as in outbreaks of communicable disease;
- collect and analyse data on illness and deaths in order to detect and prevent potential communicable disease outbreaks;
- deliver longer-term health care before and after an emergency. People need long-term nursing and medical care, maternal and child health services, rehabilitation of injuries, management of chronic diseases, and psychosocial support long after the emergency is over;
- provide immunization services to prevent outbreaks of communicable diseases such as measles that lead to the needless deaths of more children; and
provide other critical services – including laboratories, blood banks, ambulances, rehabilitation facilities, aged care facilities, and pharmacies.

2. Protect investment
The most costly health facility is the one that fails. Hospitals and health facilities are enormous investments for any country and their destruction or damage imposes major economic burdens. In some countries, up to 80% of the health budget is spent on hospitals and other health facilities. Rebuilding a hospital that has been destroyed virtually doubles the initial cost of the facility.

3. Safeguard social stability
Public morale can falter and political discord be ignited if health and emergency services fail during emergencies. Conversely, an effective emergency response and functional health service can reinforce social stability and cohesion. Hospitals are a haven for the public during conflicts and other emergencies due to their neutrality, impartiality and ability to protect a community's social and health capital.

Global efforts to make hospitals safe from disasters
Much has been done to ensure that health facilities can better cope with emergencies and to increase awareness of the vital role that health facilities play in emergencies. “Hospitals Safe from Disasters” is the theme of the 2008–2009 World Disaster Reduction Campaign, which focuses on natural disasters and the damage they can cause to hospitals in particular. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the World Bank and WHO are jointly involved in this campaign. WHO’s regional and country offices have been instrumental not only in helping to share best practices in health facility preparedness for emergencies but also in implementing such guidance and making hospitals and clinics more resilient and functional.

While much work has been done to raise the issue of emergency preparedness for health facilities and to build a "community" of people and parties dedicated to the cause, efforts remain sporadic and are neither sufficiently integrated into government development and emergency response plans nor properly harmonized with other sectors.

WHO's partners, including WHO's regional and country offices and ministries of health, are also leading the way in advocating how best to safeguard health facilities and their personnel and patients. The International Committee of the Red Cross, which advocates for the protection of health personnel and services in conflict settings, and its sister organization, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, which works with communities on emergency preparedness at community level in natural disasters, play critical roles in making hospitals safe from disasters. Donors and financial institutions – including the World Bank, USAID and DIPECHO – have answered the call by offering funding to make health facilities safer.

WHO is devoting World Health Day 2009 to the theme of health facilities in emergencies – “Save lives. Make hospitals safe in emergencies” – to further strengthen the imperative that health facilities must be prepared to withstand emergencies so that they can treat patients both during crises and afterwards. The World Health Day campaign builds on the "Hospitals Safe from Disasters" campaign and calls for hospitals to be safer in all types of emergencies, including natural disasters, conflicts and outbreaks of communicable diseases.

World Health Day is more than just a one-day event. WHO, from its country and regional offices and headquarters, is continuously working with international and national partners to assist countries in preparing their health facilities and staff for emergencies. What 7 April 2009 marks is the launch of the next step of a campaign to build resilience into our health systems so that hospitals, clinics and staff can withstand the next crisis, whatever it may be, and provide the health care that their communities need in times of emergency.

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Slowdown will affect polls

By Paranjoy Guha Thakurta

Will the current state of India’s economy matter to the electorate of the world’s largest democracy? The answer to this question is a resounding ‘yes’ although many could argue to the contrary. Loss of jobs and inflation are two issues that directly impact the voter. In addition, broader economic issues relating to implementation of development schemes and improving the quality of governance influence electoral behaviour even if the influence is not always direct or overt.

In other words, much as politicians and political parties strive to strike electoral alliance and stress subjects such as national security in their poll campaigns, the proverbial aam admi has become more intelligent than before and mature enough to distinguish between issues that directly affect their lives and their livelihood from appeals of an emotional sort.

What is noteworthy is that in the run-up to the fifteenth general elections, just about every single political party and coalition is emphasising economic and developmental issues more than other issues — although different parties also have their own pet campaign themes. Thus, the Congress and the UPA are talking about the government’s track record in implementing the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the farm loan waiver scheme as examples of farmer-friendly, ‘inclusive’ development.

The Left, while taking credit for having resisted attempts to integrate India’s economy with the rest of the world thereby saving the country from the worst ravages of the ongoing international financial crisis, is criticising the Manmohan Singh government’s neo-liberal economic policies and its overall pro-American tilt. The BJP too is not talking very much about Hindutva — rather, L K Advani is saying that the NDA would be able to provide better governance and spur economic development.

The short point is that issues pertaining to the economy are important and just cannot be ignored. There is a view that people in rural India have not been affected by the worldwide recession and for them, it is irrelevant that there has been retrenchment of employees in export-oriented industries such as textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, leather, handicrafts and processed foods. Even if one accepts such a line of reasoning, what cannot be denied is that those who have lost their livelihood in export hubs — such as Tirupur, Coimbatore, Surat, Moradabad and Ludhiana — are unlikely to be particularly sympathetic towards those in power either in New Delhi or in their respective state capitals when it comes to exercising their franchise. Tell members of a family whose breadwinner is out on the street that the government is not responsible for what has happened but a mythical character called Uncle Sam, and watch their reaction.

Even if the incumbent regime repeatedly says that it is in no way responsible for the slowdown, this logic will hardly help those in power garner more votes.

Various economic stimulus packages announced by the government since December have sought to increase the flow of credit to industry and cut excise taxes for corporates. But there is little or nothing in these packages for the proverbial common man for whom everybody’s heart is supposed to be bleeding. The insurance scheme for workers in the unorganised sector, the new road-building schemes and other programmes under Bharat Nirman may look good on paper but their implementation has been tardy and inefficient. The government’s track record over the last three years in implementing the NREGA, for instance, has been uneven across the country and in states where the scheme has worked, local governments are likely to get the credit for its efficient implementation.

Consider inflation, the one economic issue that directly hits the pocket of everyone in general and the poor in particular.

The government would like to claim as its achievement the recent reduction in the inflation rate — as measured by the official wholesale price index — from nearly 13 per cent in August to below three per cent now.

But few voters are fooled by such a claim.

A reduction in the rate of inflation merely means the pace at which prices had been rising has decelerated. The spike in the prices of food products has hurt the underprivileged considerably since the weaker sections of society spend a substantial portion of their income — often more than half — on food. If there is one single economic issue that has adversely affected the lives of ordinary people in the country in recent times, it is indeed food inflation.

Good governance is closely interwoven with reduction in corruption. Even when the Bofors controversy was the big issue that united the Right and the Left against the Rajiv Gandhi regime under V P Singh in 1989, there were many who had argued that corruption was not an issue that voters cared about. But they were proved wrong. Will the charges of corruption against two ministers in the Union council of ministers, T R Baalu and A Raja, spur anti-incumbency sentiments against the DMK government in Tamil Nadu? Will the misdeeds of B Ramalinga Raju and his associates — and the expansion in the wealth of the enterprises controlled by the Andhra Pradesh CM’s son — rub off on the reputation of Y S R Reddy’s government? There are not a few who contend that ordinary people have become inured to corruption, that they realise that the incidence of corruption will not come down merely on account of a change in government and that they have become ‘smart’ enough to choose between lesser evils, between the more corrupt and the less corrupt, the corrupt-and-efficient and the corrupt-and-inefficient, between the known ‘thief ’ and the unknown one. This is an excessively cynical point of view. Yes, people distinguish between a politician who takes money for his party and keeps most of it and one who does not. But the voter is nobody’s fool. She may be poor and illiterate but she is becoming increasingly aware with each passing election about politicians who make tall promises during poll campaigns but fail to deliver.

It is not surprising that over the last four general elections from 1996 roughly 40 per cent of the members of parliament in the Lok Sabha were new faces. This proportion is higher when it comes to members of legislative assemblies. Such a trend is likely to be reinforced during the coming elections as well, although certain states have, of late, bucked the trend — including Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and West Bengal.

To paraphrase Abraham Lincoln’s famous words, even if it is possible to fool some people all the time and all the people some of the time, it is not possible to fool all the people all the time. Even if our netas talk about national security, mandir, masjid, caste and creed, even they realise that the issues that concern voters are firmly rooted in economic realities.