Slowdown will affect polls

By Paranjoy Guha Thakurta

Will the current state of India’s economy matter to the electorate of the world’s largest democracy? The answer to this question is a resounding ‘yes’ although many could argue to the contrary. Loss of jobs and inflation are two issues that directly impact the voter. In addition, broader economic issues relating to implementation of development schemes and improving the quality of governance influence electoral behaviour even if the influence is not always direct or overt.

In other words, much as politicians and political parties strive to strike electoral alliance and stress subjects such as national security in their poll campaigns, the proverbial aam admi has become more intelligent than before and mature enough to distinguish between issues that directly affect their lives and their livelihood from appeals of an emotional sort.

What is noteworthy is that in the run-up to the fifteenth general elections, just about every single political party and coalition is emphasising economic and developmental issues more than other issues — although different parties also have their own pet campaign themes. Thus, the Congress and the UPA are talking about the government’s track record in implementing the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the farm loan waiver scheme as examples of farmer-friendly, ‘inclusive’ development.

The Left, while taking credit for having resisted attempts to integrate India’s economy with the rest of the world thereby saving the country from the worst ravages of the ongoing international financial crisis, is criticising the Manmohan Singh government’s neo-liberal economic policies and its overall pro-American tilt. The BJP too is not talking very much about Hindutva — rather, L K Advani is saying that the NDA would be able to provide better governance and spur economic development.

The short point is that issues pertaining to the economy are important and just cannot be ignored. There is a view that people in rural India have not been affected by the worldwide recession and for them, it is irrelevant that there has been retrenchment of employees in export-oriented industries such as textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, leather, handicrafts and processed foods. Even if one accepts such a line of reasoning, what cannot be denied is that those who have lost their livelihood in export hubs — such as Tirupur, Coimbatore, Surat, Moradabad and Ludhiana — are unlikely to be particularly sympathetic towards those in power either in New Delhi or in their respective state capitals when it comes to exercising their franchise. Tell members of a family whose breadwinner is out on the street that the government is not responsible for what has happened but a mythical character called Uncle Sam, and watch their reaction.

Even if the incumbent regime repeatedly says that it is in no way responsible for the slowdown, this logic will hardly help those in power garner more votes.

Various economic stimulus packages announced by the government since December have sought to increase the flow of credit to industry and cut excise taxes for corporates. But there is little or nothing in these packages for the proverbial common man for whom everybody’s heart is supposed to be bleeding. The insurance scheme for workers in the unorganised sector, the new road-building schemes and other programmes under Bharat Nirman may look good on paper but their implementation has been tardy and inefficient. The government’s track record over the last three years in implementing the NREGA, for instance, has been uneven across the country and in states where the scheme has worked, local governments are likely to get the credit for its efficient implementation.

Consider inflation, the one economic issue that directly hits the pocket of everyone in general and the poor in particular.

The government would like to claim as its achievement the recent reduction in the inflation rate — as measured by the official wholesale price index — from nearly 13 per cent in August to below three per cent now.

But few voters are fooled by such a claim.

A reduction in the rate of inflation merely means the pace at which prices had been rising has decelerated. The spike in the prices of food products has hurt the underprivileged considerably since the weaker sections of society spend a substantial portion of their income — often more than half — on food. If there is one single economic issue that has adversely affected the lives of ordinary people in the country in recent times, it is indeed food inflation.

Good governance is closely interwoven with reduction in corruption. Even when the Bofors controversy was the big issue that united the Right and the Left against the Rajiv Gandhi regime under V P Singh in 1989, there were many who had argued that corruption was not an issue that voters cared about. But they were proved wrong. Will the charges of corruption against two ministers in the Union council of ministers, T R Baalu and A Raja, spur anti-incumbency sentiments against the DMK government in Tamil Nadu? Will the misdeeds of B Ramalinga Raju and his associates — and the expansion in the wealth of the enterprises controlled by the Andhra Pradesh CM’s son — rub off on the reputation of Y S R Reddy’s government? There are not a few who contend that ordinary people have become inured to corruption, that they realise that the incidence of corruption will not come down merely on account of a change in government and that they have become ‘smart’ enough to choose between lesser evils, between the more corrupt and the less corrupt, the corrupt-and-efficient and the corrupt-and-inefficient, between the known ‘thief ’ and the unknown one. This is an excessively cynical point of view. Yes, people distinguish between a politician who takes money for his party and keeps most of it and one who does not. But the voter is nobody’s fool. She may be poor and illiterate but she is becoming increasingly aware with each passing election about politicians who make tall promises during poll campaigns but fail to deliver.

It is not surprising that over the last four general elections from 1996 roughly 40 per cent of the members of parliament in the Lok Sabha were new faces. This proportion is higher when it comes to members of legislative assemblies. Such a trend is likely to be reinforced during the coming elections as well, although certain states have, of late, bucked the trend — including Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and West Bengal.

To paraphrase Abraham Lincoln’s famous words, even if it is possible to fool some people all the time and all the people some of the time, it is not possible to fool all the people all the time. Even if our netas talk about national security, mandir, masjid, caste and creed, even they realise that the issues that concern voters are firmly rooted in economic realities.