Saturday, December 20, 2008

Will Chiranjeevi do An Obama?

By Javid Hassan

A charismatic Tollywood star, winner of the Padma Bhushan award and holder of an honorary doctorate in philosophy, actor-turned politician Chiranjeevi had all the makings of a vote-swinger as he entered the political arena with the launch of Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in August this year.

Yet, like the Congress-I, he is playing the “wait & watch” game, watching the political landscape of Telangana and waiting for the right moment to strike. In the meantime, he is mustering the support of the people across the socio-economic spectrum of the region by harping on the theme of social justice and underlining his commitment to “Santosha Andhra Pradesh” (“Happy Andhra Pradesh”).

These slogans raise question marks over the ultimate goal of the PRP. Is it for or against a separate Telangana? By refusing to commit himself one way or the other and, at the same time, aspiring for ‘ Santosha Andhra Pradesh,’

Chiranjeevi appears like a twinkling star making us wonder what you are.

He is, however, leaving nothing to chance as he straddles the political stage with all the panache of a seasoned leader. Thus, at one of the several padayatras that he undertook recently, the actor-turned politician kept newsmen guessing on his party’s stand on the Telangana issue.

At the road shows, too, Chirnajeevi did not chant Jai Telangana even when he was prompted to do so, while he called on his opponents to clarify their stand on the issue. This raises a question over PRP’s depth of commitment to the call for a separate Telangana. The Doubting Thomases also refer to the way he dodges questions on the issue.

The mega star believes that he has outsmarted his political opponents by announcing at his Jagitial road show that PRP would not pose any problem if the Centre granted statehood for Telangana. “In fact, the political parties have little role to play in this regard and it is for the Centre to announce the formation of separate Telangana,” he observed.

While remaining noncommittal on the Telangana issue, Chiranjeevi has sought to firm up his party’s base by speaking for “social justice” at public meetings.He said the need of the hour was “Telangana Samajika Nyayam”(Telangana with social justice) and not mere Telangana as a geo-political entity. Through such a rhetoric he is sending across a message to the vulnerable sections of society that the Telangana movement was being hijacked by some elements of the upper caste for their own vested interests.

In this context, a question is being asked: how seriously do the people of Telangana think that Chiranjeevi is wedded to their cause? The speculation is that things would sort out during the run-up to the elections due in April next year. The PRP leader would then be obliged to take a stand if he wants to gain political mileage out of the spade work that he has already done.

This includes the setting up of the Chiranjeevi Blood Bank in Jubilee Hills, which has raised his profile among the people. What boosted its popularity was that frequent donors had an opportunity to take a personal photograph with their hero. Critics point out that the blood bank has become more of a meeting point for PRP’s party workers and also for those who came from villages and towns with recommendations to get tickets for the forthcoming elections. As a result, the blood bank became overcrowded with fans and political supporters. This has created bad blood between the blood bank and the donors, causing the numbers to shrink.

Nevertheless, Chiru still remains hugely popular. As his party stalwart Naga Babu put it: “We will prove all other political pundits wrong by coming to power. PRP will win with complete majority in the next assembly elections.”

Chiranjeevi replaced NTR as the Telugu film industry’s reigning superstar, and changed it forever. Now that he has entered politics, he might become a political icon as well.

The Telugu Desam Party, which NTR founded in 1982 and with which he swept to power, has now announced support for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh which is, by the standards of political discussion of this sensitive subject, quite unambiguous. The TDP is obviously worried about the possibility that Chiranjeevi will cut into its base in coastal Andhra, while the communists, traditional allies of the TDP before Naidu allied with the NDA, have forged closer ties with the TRS recently. No wonder, TDP has jumped on the Telangana bandwagon as part of its defensive tactic.

The TDP was founded as the party that reflects Telugu pride. Its policies were populist to the core, but, by and large, it appealed to the emotional instinct of the people. However, when Chandra Babu Naidu donned the mantle of TDP leadership from NTR, Naidu replaced the party’s emotional beat with a reformist agenda. This is where Chiranjeevi outsmarted TDP by loading emotional content into his message and pulling the rug from under TDP.

Thus Chiranjeevi has become a force to reckon with in the political equations of Telangana politics. But whether he will win the incoming election on the strength of his own agenda is the key question. During the last Assembly and parliamentary elections, for instance, TRS had contested on a single point agenda—bringing statehood to the region. Most other political party leaders of the region had rubbished the idea at the time (except the Congress) mostly due to pressure from the party hierarchy which was sceptical of the whole idea. Congress eventually tied up with TRS promising the people a new state of Telangana. The rest, as they say, is history.

Chiranjeevi has so far avoided these political somersaults by keeping them guessing on his next move. Maybe, he wants to shine in his own light as a superstar and also on the strength of his own achievements that won him the honorific title of Padma Bhushan, the second highest Presidential Award in 2006. This led to an unprecedented international walkathon event in his honour organised by Pravasa Vaaradhis and the screening of a short film "Chiranjeevi: For Change!," which included his first ever campaign song.

The movie, an indigenous NRI production, featured the "Chiru Song 2008" composed, written and sung by prominent NRI Music Director SaiBorg, the son of a well-known folk singer. Whether Chiranjeevi will do an Obama in Telangana remains to be seen.

HNN OPINION POLL SEES NAIDU SWEEPING AP AND NTP GETS MAJORITY IN TELANGANA

By M H Ahssan

The Telugu desam party (TDP) of N.Chandrababu Naidu and its allies are favored to bag a majority of the assembly seats in the upcoming elections, according to a statewide opinion poll conducted by Hyderabad New Network (HNN).

The poll, with a sample size of 19015 respondents from the 119 assembly seats in Telangana and 294 seats in entire state of Andhra Pradesh was conducted in the first three days of the December and a backup poll of 2018 respondents was undertaken on 15 and 16 December 2008.

According to HNN poll:
- The TDP and its allies to win 25 to 30 seats helped by a positive swing of regularly 12% in Telangana and 92-105 seats in state assembly.

- The compress may end up with a tally of 15-20 seats in Telangana and 85-105 seats in state assembly, after registering a negative swing of 18%.

- The BJP and its allies are likely to finish with 3-5 seats in Telangana and 7-12 seats in state assembly with negative swing of 27%.

- TDP Leader N Chandrababu Naidu most favored chief minister candidate scoring almost 52% on the popularity chat follows by 50% on the popularity chart. Follow by 50% favoritism for ruling congress chief minister YSR and 48% for newly emerged political icon Chiranjeevi, while Telangana Chief Ministerial most favored candidate is KCR followed by T Devender Goud With 72% and 68% respectively.

- Sonia campaign for the congress may not have much of an impact on the outcome. Nearly 60% of the respondents ruled out the possibility of the congress reaping a rich electoral harvest owing to the same Rahul or recent electoral success in Delhi or Rajasthan.

Most of the seats to the TDP may accrue from the north and the west of the state, where it is poised to sweep the polls. The TDP and its electoral allies seem to have finally broken the 30% vote from x thanks to primarily to Naidu’s efforts.

The poll reveals that 77% of the state votes have made up their mind on the party they want to support, leaving 23% in the ‘still confused’ or ‘not yet decide’ category.

A hefty by positive swing of about 14% votes makes the TDP the front runners with coastal districts and some parts of Telangana and Rayalaseema the Congress is in second place as of now, but the balance may tilt in favor of the Chiranjeevi PRP once the election announcement made.

A similar scenario emerges in the northern districts barring Hyderabad where MIM, MBT and other are well entranced and there are same resistance from the BJP & left parties.

In southern Andhra, three cornered contracts will be seen in many constituencies. Though the TDP after well placed here too, the shift of voters from the congress towards the PRP hence may there up a surprise or two.

Stability, terrorism , social justice and corruption are likely to be the cornerstone of electoral issues with almost three fourths of respondents sensitive to these issuing, she much drummed ‘secularism’ factor may fall by the wayside, with a majority saying ‘no’ to the anti secular tag associated work BJP.

The millions dollar question will Sonia’s entry result in victory for the congress-the answer at the movement seems to be a big ‘no’ with almost 60% of the respondent ruling out any impact of her presences in the electoral arena.

Major Debatable Issues:

• Telugu actor Balakrishna’s political entry in TDP
• NTR family involvement in TDP
• Film personalities impact
• KCR political stunts and gimmicks
• MIM undemocratic behavior and anti-muslim agendas
• BJP – hindu terrorism
• PRP – family rule policy

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Zero Sum Proposal

The reduction in home loan rate will not boost realty sector as there are no houses available in large cities for less than Rs 30 lakh, while the cap for this lower interest rate is for loans up to Rs 20 lakh, says Prabhakar Sinha

The scheme of government to make available lower home loan rate to end-users remain a nonstarter. It will not help in reviving the sector, which is facing the worst downturn in the last 10 years, because of high interest rates.The small-ticket size of the loan that qualifies for the proposed low interest rate is the reason that will sink the proposed scheme.

Under the proposed scheme, government has asked banks to prepare a package to make home loan up to Rs 20 lakh available in the range of 7-8 per cent. According to banking sources, the banks are planning to offer home loan up to Rs 5 lakh at around 7 per cent and that of between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 20 lakh at around 8%. The present interest rate on home loan offered by public sector banks is around 10%.

But, the scheme is unlikely to benefit homebuyers in most cities in the country.This is mainly because there are hardly any apartments or houses available for up to Rs 25 lakh.Most of the properties available in the cities of National Capital Region, Mumbai, Chennai, Pune, Bangalore, Kolkata and Hyderabad are in the range of Rs 40 lakh to Rs 50 lakh.

Managing director of Unitech, Sanjay Chandra, said instead to fixing the cap at Rs 20 lakh across the country, the government should have fixed a different ceiling for different cities.He says a Rs 20-lakh-loan would be sufficient for small district towns,where land is not very costly.But in cities like National Capital Region of Delhi, land price is so high that even a 1,000 sq ft, 2-bedroom apartment cannot be sold at less that Rs 30 lakh in far flung areas. A threebedroom apartment in these areas will cost around Rs 35 lakh.

Thus, if one wants to take the benefit of low interest rate package of the government to buy a house, he will have to pay an upfront amount of Rs 10 lakh to 15 lakh from his own pocket. But, it has been found that most of the salaried people buying a house are unable to contribute more than 15 per cent of the total amount from their savings. That means, one can benefit from the government’s new package only if one were to buy a house costing around Rs 25 lakh. Even for this,one will have to dip into savings to make a Rs 5-lakh-payment upfront,and borrow the remaining Rs 20 lakh at special interest rates offered by the public sector banks.

It is learnt that a delegation of developers from NCR met government official recently to convince government to increase the ceiling of loan to qualify under the concessional rate of interest up to 8 per cent from the present Rs 20 lakh to Rs 40 lakh. They argued that this would help drive the demand in the sector.

Assotech CMD Sanjiv Srivastava said government is of the firm opinion that most of the loan seekers will be covered under the scheme. Finance secretary Arun Ramanathan has said that around 75 per cent of the loan is of less than Rs 7.5 lakh.

However, consultants say that most of these loans were taken before 2003, when the market was subdued. Besides, these loans were taken to buy houses in the small towns. In most of the large cities, prices of apartment and independent houses in the authorized areas are more than Rs 30 lakh. Srivastava says that if government increases the ticket size to Rs 40 lakh, the present scheme will help revive the sector. It will go a long way in arresting the slowdown in the economy.That fall in the interest rate from the present 10 per cent to 8 per cent and 7 per cent will go a long way in making the purchase of house affordable.

The fall in the interest rate by 3 percentage points on home loan up to Rs 5 lakh for 20 years will lead to reduction in EMI by 20 per cent from Rs 4,825 to Rs 3,876. However, on 10-year loan, the fall in EMI of Rs 5 lakh loan will be 12 per cent from Rs 6,608 to Rs 5,805.

But, if the loan amount goes up to Rs 20 lakh, the fall in the interest rate on 20-year loan by 2 percentage points will lead to reduction in the EMI by 13 percentage points from Rs 19,300 to Rs 16,729. In case of the repayment period of 10-year, the EMI will fall by 8 percentage points to Rs 24,265 from Rs 26,430.

In the case of Rs 40 lakh for 20 years loan also, the fall in the interest rate by 2 percentage points from 10 per cent to 8 per cent will lead to decline in the EMI by 13 per cent to Rs 33,458 from Rs 38,600. But, if loan tenure is reduced to 10 years, the EMI will fall by 8 per cent to Rs 48,531 from Rs 52,860.Therefore,the fall in the interest rates leads to fall in the EMI substantially, which will help drive the demand in the sector. This will increase the fund flow of in the sector, leading to rise in economic activities also.

Zero Sum Proposal

The reduction in home loan rate will not boost realty sector as there are no houses available in large cities for less than Rs 30 lakh, while the cap for this lower interest rate is for loans up to Rs 20 lakh, says Prabhakar Sinha

The scheme of government to make available lower home loan rate to end-users remain a nonstarter. It will not help in reviving the sector, which is facing the worst downturn in the last 10 years, because of high interest rates.The small-ticket size of the loan that qualifies for the proposed low interest rate is the reason that will sink the proposed scheme.

Under the proposed scheme, government has asked banks to prepare a package to make home loan up to Rs 20 lakh available in the range of 7-8 per cent. According to banking sources, the banks are planning to offer home loan up to Rs 5 lakh at around 7 per cent and that of between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 20 lakh at around 8%. The present interest rate on home loan offered by public sector banks is around 10%.

But, the scheme is unlikely to benefit homebuyers in most cities in the country.This is mainly because there are hardly any apartments or houses available for up to Rs 25 lakh.Most of the properties available in the cities of National Capital Region, Mumbai, Chennai, Pune, Bangalore, Kolkata and Hyderabad are in the range of Rs 40 lakh to Rs 50 lakh.

Managing director of Unitech, Sanjay Chandra, said instead to fixing the cap at Rs 20 lakh across the country, the government should have fixed a different ceiling for different cities.He says a Rs 20-lakh-loan would be sufficient for small district towns,where land is not very costly.But in cities like National Capital Region of Delhi, land price is so high that even a 1,000 sq ft, 2-bedroom apartment cannot be sold at less that Rs 30 lakh in far flung areas. A threebedroom apartment in these areas will cost around Rs 35 lakh.

Thus, if one wants to take the benefit of low interest rate package of the government to buy a house, he will have to pay an upfront amount of Rs 10 lakh to 15 lakh from his own pocket. But, it has been found that most of the salaried people buying a house are unable to contribute more than 15 per cent of the total amount from their savings. That means, one can benefit from the government’s new package only if one were to buy a house costing around Rs 25 lakh. Even for this,one will have to dip into savings to make a Rs 5-lakh-payment upfront,and borrow the remaining Rs 20 lakh at special interest rates offered by the public sector banks.

It is learnt that a delegation of developers from NCR met government official recently to convince government to increase the ceiling of loan to qualify under the concessional rate of interest up to 8 per cent from the present Rs 20 lakh to Rs 40 lakh. They argued that this would help drive the demand in the sector.

Assotech CMD Sanjiv Srivastava said government is of the firm opinion that most of the loan seekers will be covered under the scheme. Finance secretary Arun Ramanathan has said that around 75 per cent of the loan is of less than Rs 7.5 lakh.

However, consultants say that most of these loans were taken before 2003, when the market was subdued. Besides, these loans were taken to buy houses in the small towns. In most of the large cities, prices of apartment and independent houses in the authorized areas are more than Rs 30 lakh. Srivastava says that if government increases the ticket size to Rs 40 lakh, the present scheme will help revive the sector. It will go a long way in arresting the slowdown in the economy.That fall in the interest rate from the present 10 per cent to 8 per cent and 7 per cent will go a long way in making the purchase of house affordable.

The fall in the interest rate by 3 percentage points on home loan up to Rs 5 lakh for 20 years will lead to reduction in EMI by 20 per cent from Rs 4,825 to Rs 3,876. However, on 10-year loan, the fall in EMI of Rs 5 lakh loan will be 12 per cent from Rs 6,608 to Rs 5,805.

But, if the loan amount goes up to Rs 20 lakh, the fall in the interest rate on 20-year loan by 2 percentage points will lead to reduction in the EMI by 13 percentage points from Rs 19,300 to Rs 16,729. In case of the repayment period of 10-year, the EMI will fall by 8 percentage points to Rs 24,265 from Rs 26,430.

In the case of Rs 40 lakh for 20 years loan also, the fall in the interest rate by 2 percentage points from 10 per cent to 8 per cent will lead to decline in the EMI by 13 per cent to Rs 33,458 from Rs 38,600. But, if loan tenure is reduced to 10 years, the EMI will fall by 8 per cent to Rs 48,531 from Rs 52,860.Therefore,the fall in the interest rates leads to fall in the EMI substantially, which will help drive the demand in the sector. This will increase the fund flow of in the sector, leading to rise in economic activities also.