Saturday, December 20, 2008

HNN OPINION POLL SEES NAIDU SWEEPING AP AND NTP GETS MAJORITY IN TELANGANA

By M H Ahssan

The Telugu desam party (TDP) of N.Chandrababu Naidu and its allies are favored to bag a majority of the assembly seats in the upcoming elections, according to a statewide opinion poll conducted by Hyderabad New Network (HNN).

The poll, with a sample size of 19015 respondents from the 119 assembly seats in Telangana and 294 seats in entire state of Andhra Pradesh was conducted in the first three days of the December and a backup poll of 2018 respondents was undertaken on 15 and 16 December 2008.

According to HNN poll:
- The TDP and its allies to win 25 to 30 seats helped by a positive swing of regularly 12% in Telangana and 92-105 seats in state assembly.

- The compress may end up with a tally of 15-20 seats in Telangana and 85-105 seats in state assembly, after registering a negative swing of 18%.

- The BJP and its allies are likely to finish with 3-5 seats in Telangana and 7-12 seats in state assembly with negative swing of 27%.

- TDP Leader N Chandrababu Naidu most favored chief minister candidate scoring almost 52% on the popularity chat follows by 50% on the popularity chart. Follow by 50% favoritism for ruling congress chief minister YSR and 48% for newly emerged political icon Chiranjeevi, while Telangana Chief Ministerial most favored candidate is KCR followed by T Devender Goud With 72% and 68% respectively.

- Sonia campaign for the congress may not have much of an impact on the outcome. Nearly 60% of the respondents ruled out the possibility of the congress reaping a rich electoral harvest owing to the same Rahul or recent electoral success in Delhi or Rajasthan.

Most of the seats to the TDP may accrue from the north and the west of the state, where it is poised to sweep the polls. The TDP and its electoral allies seem to have finally broken the 30% vote from x thanks to primarily to Naidu’s efforts.

The poll reveals that 77% of the state votes have made up their mind on the party they want to support, leaving 23% in the ‘still confused’ or ‘not yet decide’ category.

A hefty by positive swing of about 14% votes makes the TDP the front runners with coastal districts and some parts of Telangana and Rayalaseema the Congress is in second place as of now, but the balance may tilt in favor of the Chiranjeevi PRP once the election announcement made.

A similar scenario emerges in the northern districts barring Hyderabad where MIM, MBT and other are well entranced and there are same resistance from the BJP & left parties.

In southern Andhra, three cornered contracts will be seen in many constituencies. Though the TDP after well placed here too, the shift of voters from the congress towards the PRP hence may there up a surprise or two.

Stability, terrorism , social justice and corruption are likely to be the cornerstone of electoral issues with almost three fourths of respondents sensitive to these issuing, she much drummed ‘secularism’ factor may fall by the wayside, with a majority saying ‘no’ to the anti secular tag associated work BJP.

The millions dollar question will Sonia’s entry result in victory for the congress-the answer at the movement seems to be a big ‘no’ with almost 60% of the respondent ruling out any impact of her presences in the electoral arena.

Major Debatable Issues:

• Telugu actor Balakrishna’s political entry in TDP
• NTR family involvement in TDP
• Film personalities impact
• KCR political stunts and gimmicks
• MIM undemocratic behavior and anti-muslim agendas
• BJP – hindu terrorism
• PRP – family rule policy

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