If he hadn't agreed to standing from Gandhinagar, L.K. Advani, the dissident patriarch of the BJP, was in serious danger of not being given a party nomination altogether. His attempt to switch to Bhopal, the sitting MP from where had been persuaded to step aside, was seen for what it was: reckless adventurism on the eve of elections, calculated to embarrass the party.
Having opposed Narendra Modi's candidature for prime minister, Advani may have felt diffident about going back to Gandhinagar. While his acolytes spoke in conspiratorial whispers, suggesting fears of sabotage, the reality was a little different.
There is no serious danger of Advani losing from the Gujarat capital or of Modi or anybody else working to defeat him. However, in moving away from Gujarat and asking for a haven in Madhya Pradesh instead, Advani was signalling his autonomy of and distance from Modi. In a post-election scenario, should the BJP fall short of the expected number of seats, such jockeying could help him project himself as the alternative to Modi, or so Advani believes.
It is fairly obvious that Advani's protests when Modi was chosen prime ministerial candidate were not conscientious objections because he felt better alternatives were available. He was not really batting for Sushma Swaraj or Shivraj Chouhan, chief minister of Madhya Pradesh. Rather, he saw and continues to see himself as prime minister material. Unfortunately, few others in the party share that view.
It is a shame that a once formidable and astute political mind has brought this upon himself, but the fact is Advani is extremely isolated in the party he long mentored. Even the few supporters he has in the BJP are expedient allies, and have plans of their own in a possible Modi era. Many of the former regulars at Advani's Prithivraj Road residence have mended fences with Modi. Scarcely anyone remains from the durbar of old.
The extent of Advani's alienation from the BJP mainstream and his loss of authority is not easy to comprehend. An early glimpse of this came in 2013, when Nitish Kumar attacked Modi following the latter's selection as BJP campaign committee chair. Kumar had been given to understand that by criticising Modi he would strengthen those (such as Advani) who were warning the Gujarat chief minister would repel alliance partners. This would lead to a civil war in the BJP, it was hoped.
However, more than boost Advani, Kumar ended up hardening the mood in the BJP. He caused a closing of ranks behind Modi. That miscalculation is likely to cost Kumar dearly in the Lok Sabha election in Bihar. Nevertheless it has not prevented others in the Advani camp from entertaining similar delusions.
There are those who insist that should the BJP win a sub-optimal number of seats in the general election, it will be easy and inevitable for Advani to become the leader and for Modi to be dumped. Here again the extent of identification with Modi within the party is being underestimated. Other than in the unlikely event of an absolute and total collapse, where is the evidence the BJP is prepared to jettison Modi irrespective of the nature of the May 16 verdict and irrespective of whether it wins 175 seats or 225?
Advani's predicament is not very different from that of the other Dada, Saurav Ganguly, at the last stage of his career. The 2010 Indian Premier League was Ganguly's golden handshake season. Kolkata Knight Riders gave him the captaincy and a free run. When the team lost, KKR expected Ganguly to retire and offered him a mentorship role. Ganguly refused and insisted on playing on; KKR simply dropped him from the squad.
Similarly, the 2009 election was Advani's guru dakshina moment. A gracious and grateful party fought the election under him even though it realised he was past his prime and the campaign was a non-starter. After the defeat, it expected Advani to settle into a mentorship role. Like Ganguly, he felt otherwise. Alas, how angels fall.
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