Telangana Jolts Congress, Loses Ground In South India

By Aniket Sharma | INN Live

ELECTION SCENARIO: It is largely going to be a flop show for the Congress in the south. Barring Karnataka, the grand old party is unlikely to win significant number of seats in any southern state, the latest 'Mood of the Nation' opinion poll findings suggest.

Karnataka: Where the Congress snatched power from the BJP owing to its infighting, might give the ruling party 12 seats out of the 28 if the general elections were held in January 2014. The number is double the Congress tally in the current Lok Sabha.
The return of former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa to the BJP is likely to benefit the saffron party in a big way. However, it might not repeat its 2009 show as its tally is expected to drop to 13 from 19.

The Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) still retains influence in its traditional strongholds around Mysore. However, its tally might fall to just 2 from the existing 3 seats.

Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) seems to get success in making some gains in Bangalore metropolitan area, as it is likely to win 1 seat.

Chief Minister Siddaramiah has helped the Congress maintain the momentum picked up during the assembly elections. If the Congress manages to ally with the JDS, seat share of both the parties could go up.

Telangana & Andhra Pradesh: The Congress policy makers changed their stands on the Telangana issue over the last five years before finally deciding to create a separate state, hoping to gain significantly. The party's tactics, however, appears to be failing as it is likely to lose in both the Telangana and the Seemandhra regions of Andhra Pradesh.

The party's tally is likely to nosedive to 7 from 33 in 2009. This could be the worst ever performance of the Congress in the state ever.

Former Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress is expected to be the biggest gainer in the state as it is predicted to win 13 seats in the state. The party takes a big lead in the Seemandhra region.

While the Congress fails to impress much in the Telangana region as well despite deciding to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh, it is the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which is expected to be the real gainer winning 13 seats against its tally of 2 in the current House.

Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) emerges the other major player in both the regions. However, seat-wise its gain is not likely to be more than 2, taking its tally to 8 seats.

Though the BJP's vote share is on the upswing in both the regions, especially in urban pockets, it does not seem to be in a winning position in any constituency. However, an alliance with the TDP could bolster fortunes of both the parties.

Tamil Nadu: Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa's party AIADMK looks all set to sweep across the state as it dents the DMK vote share and wipes out its former ally Congress. High profile leaders like Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram seem to be in the danger zone.

The opinion poll gives the ruling party 29 seats against 9 in 2009, while the DMK's tally is likely to fall from 18 to 5.

The DMDK can add to the tally of whichever major party actor-turned-politician Vijaykanth decides to ally with.

The BJP standalone vote share is going up, especially in urban areas but not enough to translate into any seat. It makes clear that Jayalalithaa could hold the key to who becomes prime minister after the next elections.

Kerala: Unlike Karnataka, being the ruling party doesn't seem to help the Congress's cause in Kerala as its seat tally is expected to fall to 6 from 13. The party holds on to its support among Muslims and Christians.

The Left Front seems to be gaining at the expense of the Congress. The opinion poll gives it 11 seats, up by 7 seats against the 2009 tally.

The BJP vote share seems to be going up in the state, reducing the vote share of Left Front, which could have hoped for higher tally otherwise.

Congress ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is just holding on to its areas of strength.