Andhra Pradesh has been a divided state ever since the decision of bifurcating it to create Telangana was announced. Even the voting pattern in Lok Sabha elections is likely to reveal that Telangana and Seemandhra regions will go in different directions.
The YSR Congress Party of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is expected to win 11-19 seats, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 9-15, Congress 5-9, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) 4-8 and other parties are likely to get 0-4 seats, according to the projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.
But Andhra, which sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha, also shows a great deal of regional variations with the ruling Congress leading in Telangana and the YSR Congress Party way ahead in Seemandhra.
In Telangana, the Congress is expected to get 33 per cent votes, the TRS 23 per cent, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 11 per cent, YSRCP 1 per cent, TDP 13 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 3 per cent and others are expected to get 16 per cent respectively, as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
After the Union Cabinet cleared Telangana draft, the Congress has gained 6 per cent votes in Telangana. The YSRCP, which is opposing the new state tooth and nail, seems to have lost whatever minor support it had in the region. Telangana region has 17 Lok Sabha and 119 Assembly seats.
In Seemandhra region, comprising Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, the pro-united Andhra party YSRCP is miles ahead of its rivals. The YSRCP is likely to get 41 per cent votes in Seemandhra.
The TDP is projected to get 28 per cent votes from this region. The ruling Congress may come third with just 16 per cent votes. The BJP has gained 7 per cent and is expected to get 9 per cent votes, the AAP 1 per cent votes and others 5 per cent votes.
The Congress is likely to get 24 per cent votes. The YSR Congress Party is expected to get 22 per cent, TDP 21 per cent, TRS 11 per cent, BJP 10 per cent, AAP 2 per cent and others 10 per cent votes respectively. The Congress is doing very well in Telangana region and the YSR Congress Party is doing very well in Seemandhra region.
In Telangana region, the support for the new state is near total with 95 per cent voters backing its creation. Just 2 per cent are opposing the division and 3 per cent have no opinion.
In Seemandhra region, 80 per cent are opposing the division of state. Just 7 per cent are backing the division and 13 per cent have no opinion.
Even in Telangana region, most Congress supporters feel that the Congress at the Centre handled the issue very badly. Interestingly, the chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy is more popular than the Congress MPs and ministers from Seemandhra region.
Most people are opposing the move to make Hyderabad joint capital of the two states for 10 years. Opposition to such a move is greater in Telangana than in Seemandhra. Just 12 per cent voters are favouring such a move while 49 per cent from across the state are opposing it. Most in Seemandhra want Union Territory status for Hyderabad. There is a strong opposition to it in Telangana.
A total of 44 per cent respondents in Rayalaseema want Kurnool as the new capital of Seemandhra. But, respondents from coastal Andhra favour Vishakhapatnam and Vijayawada as new capital.
A total of 55 per cent respondents are unhappy with the performance of Congress government in the state. In Telangana, it is 56 per cent and in Seemandhra it is 54 per cent respectively.
Andhra Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy is highly unpopular in Telangana region. His condition is slightly better in Seemandhra region.
However, the mood against Congress is stronger in Seemandhra than in Telangana region. A very high 70 per cent of the voters in Seemandhra feel that Congress should not get another chance and 42 per cent voters feel the same in Telangana region. The overall dissatisfaction figure is 52 per cent across the state.
Only one in 10 in Andhra wants to give the UPA another chance.
While 22 per cent respondents across Andhra favour Narendra Modi for the post of PM, Rahul Gandhi get the backing of 15 per cent. Among the local leaders, both YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and N Chandrababu Naidu have got 1 per cent each. Arvind Kejriwal of the AAP has also got 1 per cent backing for the post of PM.
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