Karnataka is now on the edge of public mandate, being 61.5% polled today in entire state. Several political parties fate is closed in the electronic voting machines. The decision, must be an intelligent by the frustrated voters, always seek change in lives will rattle the future of 'leading aspirants'.
These days, former external affairs minister S M Krishna does not travel out to exotic destinations, only to a few Assembly constituencies.
The Congress did not want his help in winning the Karnataka Assembly elections. Even when he was unceremoniously ejected from the Union Cabinet some months ago, Krishna must have known that he was staring at political oblivion. He told journalists close to him that he knew for sure he was returning to Karnataka but was unsure if he was going to return to the hurly-burly of state politics. Krishna is now a grumpy old man, with a new found love for leisure and music and the like. With four decades of politics behind him, he did not wholeheartedly participate in the electoral melee and he makes it clear in interviews that he is unhappy.
If the Congress had played it better, they could have used the positive recall value that Krishna has in Bangalore for the campaigning in 28 seats, where he might have made a difference. In private, Congressmen admit that they could fall short of a simple majority of 113 when the state goes to polls today. They put their chances at closer to 100. The Congress leadership in Karnataka is divided, Mallikarjun Kharge (Dalit), CLP leader Siddaramaiah (backward, Kuruba, shepherd community, an ex-Deve Gowda loyalist who is now thought to be hobnobbing with Yeddyurappa) and KPCC president G Parameshwara (Dalit). Each one is pulling in a different direction. I am told that in at least 40 seats, the Congress has purposely fielded weak candidates with a view to ensure victory of their friends in other parties. It has, for example, fielded first-timers against the chief minister and deputy chief minister. It is Congress versus Congress.
Even so, the Congress will walk away with the biggest chunk of seats because people are so unhappy with the experience they had with the BJP. The BJP, on its part, was busy flying in stalwarts and big guns, Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh, Advani, sometimes all on the same day. Even privately, the BJP exuded confidence. It feels it will get close to a hundred seats. Frankly, this may be based entirely on wishful thinking. The BJP is pinning hopes of a win based on the fact that no new scams have emerged after Yeddyurappa left the party. And that along with Yeddyurappa, the rest of bad eggs are gone and therefore, it postulates it is now a clean party. Further, Jagdish Shettar is a Lingayat and from north Karnataka where Lingayats dominate. He will be the battering ram that pummels Yeddyurappa.
Political pundits give Yeddy upto 10 seats, considering that not many of his strong supporters who are ministers in the government, and who could have won on their own, like Industries Minister Murugesh Nirani, Agriculture Minister Umesh Katti and Water Resources Minister Basavaraj Bommai, did not embrace him. Many MLAs also refrained from joining the Yeddy brigade. What he thought would be a flood of support, turned out to be more of a trickle. Yet, one thing is sure. Whether he wins seats or not, Yeddyurappa will eat into BJP votes and not into Congress votes. If the Congress falls short of majority, it may look to him, if Independents do not swing the Congress way.
Amid this, the Janata Dal (Secular) is like a patient vulture, waiting for a split verdict.
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