So the people of Karnataka have punched. And going by the bhavishya-vaani of three different exit pollsters, delivered a knockout punch to the BJP. It is pretty much certain that Karnataka is set to usher in a Congress government on 8 May.
The scenario that is emerging (depending on which exit poll you would like to believe) is that the Congress could end up either with a clear majority, above 130 seats out of 223 (election in one constituency was countermanded because of the death of the BJP candidate) or come within kissing distance of power around the 110 mark, just like the BJP in 2008. There of course, will be the eager independents who will be willing to do business with the Congress. The real contest will take place between the BJP and the JD(S) for the second spot, that will determine who will be the Leader of Opposition. BS Yeddyurappa, who still defiantly claims he will get absolute majority, will be left alone to lick his wounds and wipe his tears.
Not that one needed the exit polls to tell us that. The results of the urban local bodies elections in March were a clear indicator of which way the wind was blowing. The Congress performance in the civic polls was proof that Yeddyurappa was playing a vengeful spoiler and the BJP was tasting the wrath of the voter.
Anyone who would have travelled through Karnataka in April would have smelled the discontent with the BJP government in the air. The stench of disgust was embarrassingly spread all over Karnataka – from Bangalore to Gulbarga, from Bellary to Udupi. The message was clear – that the party that claimed to be different had violated the trust the people had placed in it in the summer of 2008.
To put it bluntly, the BJP has more or less delivered Karnataka on a platter to the Congress. The curtains will fall on the final act in the five-year long nataka on Wednesday morning.
And the Congress will do well to do a few things right away.
1. Send a thankyou note to Yeddyurappa for if it was not for him, the original BJP vote would not have got split and the party would have put up a better performance, even if not return to power.
2. Ask the Congressmen and women who are gloating over how the Karnataka verdict will be proof that the party is on the comeback trail nationally, to wake up and smell the coffee. Because they are either ignorant or love the craft of bluffing. This vote has nothing to do with what is happening at the national level. Leave it to the wisdom of the Karnataka voter to deal with the five years of UPA 2 in April-May 2014.
3. This vote is against political infighting and for good governance. The Congress would do well to respect that and not subject the state and the country to a crab fight that I see breaking out for the top job. Just about every second candidate in the Congress fancies himself or herself as a potential chief minister and with colleagues like that, anyone who becomes chief minister eventually will not need political enemies.
There are lessons for the BJP as well.
1. What does it do the next time one of its top leaders, either at the national or the state level, is chargesheeted in a corruption case. Does it behave like the Congress did in the Virabhadra Singh case in Himachal Pradesh and reaps electoral dividends or does it follow the Yeddyurappa precedent and end up on the losing side. There would certainly be a section within the BJP that would advocate being more brazen about it.
2. There is a need to go back to the drawing board on how to deal with powerful regional chieftains. Does the party encourage rootless leaders in Delhi to play petty politics to push a more popular leader out and pay for it politically? Or does it clearly define who calls the shots in a state? The public did not think much of LK Advani taking the moral high ground on Yeddyurappa and insisting he should not be politically rehabilitated. The BSY chapter should be a lesson in how not to handle a political hot potato.
3. And therefore, there would be a school of thought within the BJP that may think remarriage with the same partner after a bitter divorce may not be such a bad idea, if it brings political prosperity. A senior leader had indicated to me during the campaign that Yeddyurappa’s homecoming will depend on the numbers. May be one of these days, Yeddyurappa’s grandchild will remind him of the adage `United we stand, Divided we fall’.
This is an election the Congress will win, despite making every effort to lose the plot. It went into it without a tall Vokkaliga or Lingayat leader, the two major communities in Karnataka. Though it managed to contain the rebel factor in many constituencies, the fighting spirit was missing in its cadre. The leadership was banking more on the anti-BJP sentiment than creating a positive wave in the Congress favour. Ticket distribution was a very messy affair. And finally, as political analyst SA Hemantha Kumar puts it, a Brutus syndrome had gripped the senior leaders during the campaign, with too many chieftains determined to spoil the bisi bele bath.
If despite all this the Congress is winning Karnataka, it is only because the arithmetic is in its favour. The chemistry with the voter, is sadly missing.
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