THE 'KING MAKER' OR 'STAR MAKER'

By M H Ahssan

Chandrababu Naidu looks like the man who will be sought after, once election results are out. He will be a kingmaker if he gets anything over 20 Lok Sabha seats.

Chandrababu Naidu, a posterboy of India’s economic reforms in the mid-1990s, is a chastened man today. He has reinvented himself politically and says he had made a mistake in the past by remaining too focused on economic reforms while not looking after the immediate needs of the poor. Redistributive justice cannot wait till reforms produce results and major intervention is required in the short run. Naidu has internalised this as he leads the opposition charge in the most critical state of Andhra Pradesh which returns 42 members to the Lok Sabha, the third largest after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

No wonder Andhra Pradesh is being described as a swing state, which will decide the fate of the Congress-led UPA at the Centre. Chandrababu Naidu is fully aware of the possible role he might play at the Centre after the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in the state. “Everyone knows I played a critical role in the formation of the United Front government. I am sure I will play a role this time too if the need arises”, he says confidently.

His body language would suggest he is already sensing power. “Many internal exit poll surveys suggest we are well ahead of the Congress after the first phase of polling. Even the state intelligence bureau has indicated that,” he says. “Another sign is the Congress leader Y S R Reddy’s desperation in raising the bogey, in the second phase campaign, that the people of Andhra might lose Hyderabad to a newly created state of Telengana. How is the Congress High Command endorsing such duplicity,” Naidu asks.

Naidu raises all these and many other issues in a fiery public speech in the heart of Nellore town, and the crowds lap up every bit of his rhetorical posers. If the Nellore public meeting is anything to go by, Naidu appears to be on a roll. One has not seen such a spontaneous response from the crowds in recent times. Going by local media reports he has been getting such crowd response in most of his public meetings and has gathered political momentum lately. The sense one gets after talking to people is they want to give Naidu a chance. Clearly, Naidu looks like the man who will be sought after, post-May 16. He will be a kingmaker if he gets anything over 20 Lok Sabha seats.

A conversation with Naidu revealed an interesting political facet of the man. He has clearly learnt from past mistakes. “I ruled for nine years in Andhra and was regarded as a pioneer of economic reforms. But I made one big mistake. I got carried away by praise from economists and academics and lost touch with the common man. I have, therefore, learnt a lesson and reinvented myself,” he says. He still believes in reforms but equally on substantive “intervention as the poor cannot wait for succour”.

Going by Naidu, the new lesson for every politician seems to be to do exactly the opposite of what ivory tower economists suggest! For instance, economists always pooh-poohed the idea of giving rice at Rs 2 a kg which was put forth by N T Rama Rao and later replicated by DMK of Tamil Nadu. But this has now become par for the course as national parties have also followed suit.

This election, Naidu seems to have caught the imagination of Andhra people with his unique cash transfer scheme which he explains in all his public meetings. The scheme is about a direct transfer of cash to those below poverty line and the not so poor in a graded manner. Being adept at the use of technology Naidu emphasises in all his meetings that this cash transfer will be made directly through an ATM card and will be handed to the woman of the poor household.

The emphasis on direct transfer without intermediaries is not without reason. The Congress in Andhra too has implemented many social sector schemes but corruption has eaten into a good 50% of such funds, says Naidu. The Telugu Desam leader alleges that corruption and criminality have created an anti-incumbency sentiment in the state.

But has he done the math for transferring such a big sum every month to the poor? The below poverty line poor household will get Rs 2,000 a month, the above poverty line poor will get Rs 1,500 and Rs 1,000 in a graded manner. The total expenditure on this could be Rs 10,000 to Rs 12,000 crore. Asked how he will raise such a big sum, Naidu says the money will have to come from the growing economy. He alludes to user charges from telecom, roads and so on which are still booming.

Sharp politician that he is, Naidu eschews going into further details. But he surely has caught the imagination of the people with some of his schemes. One also saw Naidu attracting a lot of the young voters in his meetings. He cleverly uses technology to appear more modern than his rivals. For instance, he has set up a call centre in each of his 294 assembly constituencies to get daily feedback. He has a thousand dedicated phone lines free to communicate.

Naidu said his other big mistake was he did not immediately withdraw support to the NDA government when the Gujarat riots happened. It cost him dearly at the elections and the minorities got alienated from the TDP. He now claims to have managed to win back some of the confidence of the Muslims who constitute about 14% of the state voting population.

Naidu also significantly asserted he would play the role of a facilitator if the Third Front got a good tally at the hustings. “I have been working with leaders of the Third Front to create an alternative set of policies,” he said. Naidu also seems serious about working on a common minimum programme of the Third Front, post-elections. He says the common features of all manifestos can be put together after the polls.

He is confident the Third Front can notch up over 150 seats, in which case the Congress would be pressured to support the Front. No doubt, he is a man to watch in the weeks ahead.