Showing posts sorted by relevance for query analysis. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query analysis. Sort by date Show all posts

Monday, May 25, 2009

INN Hiring 'Freelancers'

We @ INN are in commissioning spree of medium-length news pieces and profiles (775-1650 words), as well as feature-length work (2000 words and above, max 3000). From freelancers, our strong preference is for feature-length work with outstanding story telling. Writer-reporters based outside India must make clear in their pitches whether or not they have supporting professional photography available, whether their own or through a colleague.

We prefer short (3-5 paragraph) story proposals, but will consider finished pieces. We like new work, but will consider a piece that has appeared elsewhere (though not in this region) in some form or another. Pitches should give a strong sense of art, angle and sources - and indicate that you understand the interests of our audience. Please have a look at our websites (http://www.indiatell.org / http://hyd-news.blogspot.com) to get a sense of the magazines' style. Feel free to request a print copy - the print edition is larger and more lively than the site.

Generally speaking, INN news coverage is in the India News Network tradition. Our city and country guide coverage is similar in nature to that of Delhi and Mumbai Monthly. In the feature well, we aim for the best of The Indian, Human Interest and Esquire. We prize analysis and context in news, insights and how-to in our city guide, and the best damn story telling (period) in our features. Politics, social issues, culture, entertainment, celebrity interviews -- anything goes, so long as it is current or a unique look back at a significant (if nearly forgotten) past incident.

INN - Business news coverage is in the India Business Network tradition. We prize analysis and context in news, insights and how-to in our In the Black section. Business, economy and politics stories - including those that delve into social issues, culture and entertainment - anything goes, so long as it is current and provides a business perspective to the issue.

Although we are an English-language publication, 40% of our readers are Indians living in India. Roughly 25% of our online subscribers are Indians living abroad or Indo-American / Indo-British, etc. Foreigners reading the magazine are, in the majority, long-term residents of India or individuals and institutions abroad who follow Indian political, cultural and social issues.

In short, if your pitch isn't related to India and / or the South Asia - at least conceptually - then we're not terribly interested. Indo-Americans? Yes. Washington or London politics? Perhaps, if it is relevant to our readers.

We're a national current affairs title with some international news coverage. Pitch us stories about entertainment, politics, culture, social issues and business. We are decidedly not interested in "Exotic India" pieces. Photo essays are interesting as long as the topic is right.

Unless you have particularly unique experience or are an expert of some stripe commissioned to do an Op/Ed piece for us, we couldn't care less about your personal opinions. Some (slightly) opinionated analysis is good, but "campaigning" has no place - we're looking for good stories, well told.

We pay locally competitive rates in Indian Rupees to freelancers based in India, in US dollars to those abroad. Payment is within 30 days of publication. We're generally faster, but please allow a months from the issue date for receipt of payment. All rates are agreed upon in advance of assignment and are non-negotiable thereafter.

All stories must be submitted electronically as Word attachments in .RTF format (Mac or PC) as well as pasted into the body of the e-mail message. AP style is optional. Photos may also be sent electronically as JPG / GIF or PNG files. We will let you know additional details on resolution and size if you're sending us pics with your pieces.

Please direct any questions or pitches to editor@indiatell.orghydnews@gmail.com with the words "INN - Freelance" in your subject heading.

Monday, March 11, 2013

The Strange Case Of India's Missing Dams

A complete and accurate database of dams and rivers in the country is the first pre-requisite for analysing hydrological issues and safety, but an analysis by INN shows that the authority entrusted to maintain such records clearly has a long way to go. 

The latest NRLD seems to have been uploaded only recently, since for a number of states, it claims to have been updated till January 2013. The NRLD is certainly a useful document, the only list of large dams in India and it also gives a number of salient features of the large dams in India. The South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) has been using this document and doing some analysis of the information available in the NRLD.

As per the latest edition, India has 5187 large dams (height above 15 m in most cases, height of 10-15 m in the case of some with additional criteria). 371 of these dams are under construction and the rest have been completed. In case of 194 large dams in NRLD, we do not know the year of construction, which means most of these dams must have been built before independence.

NRLD is not an exhaustive list
NRLD follows the definition of large dams given by the International Commission on Large Dams for inclusion of dams in its records. However, it is far from what you could call an exhaustive list of large dams in India. A significant number of large dams built for hydropower projects in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, North East India, among other states, do not figure in the list, even though all of these would come under the definition of large dams as given in the NRLD.

To illustrate, in Himachal Pradesh alone, the following dams are all under construction as per the Central Electricity Authority, many of them in advanced stages, but they do not figure in NRLD: Allain Duhangan, Kashang, Sainj, Swara Kuddu, Shongtong Karcham, Sorang, Tangnu Romai, Tidong. This poses a serious threat to safety, especially since many of them are under construction by private companies.

For example, in December 2012, heavy leakage was detected in the surge shaft of the 1000 MW Karcham Wangtoo Project on Sutlej River in Kinnaur district in Himachal Pradesh. The project had to be shut down and the repairs are still going on. Had there been a serious mishap at the project, the impact would also be felt by the cascade of projects downstream, including the 1500 MW Nathpa Jakhri HEP (India's largest operating hydropower project), 412 MW Rampur HEP, 800 MW Kol Dam HEP and the Bhakra complex further downstream.

Incomplete records or omissions make prevention, tracking and management of such emergencies difficult.

The missing dams
Earlier in 2010 and 2011, SANDRP filed a number of applications with the CWC under the Right to Information Act to ask them how a very large number of dams that were listed in earlier NRLD records of 1990, 2002 (both printed versions) did not figure in the NRLD 2009, and many of the large dams listed in 1990 also did not figure in NRLD 2002. The CWC response in most cases was to transfer our RTI application to the relevant states, stating that it is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information in the NRLD, it merely compiles the information given by the respective states.

This was a far from satisfactory response from India's premier technical water resources organisation. Was CWC acting only as a post box on such a serious issue as listing of large dams? It was not applying its mind to the information supplied by the states, not raising any questions, nor clarifying the contradictions and gaps with respect to the earlier editions of NRLD? Needless to add, this reflects very poorly on the CWC.

Here, it is notable that the CWC is also responsible for the monitoring policies and practices related to the safety of dams in India as also a number of other aspects. What kind of diligence then can we expect from CWC under these circumstances? Our analysis also showed that many dams that should have figured in the earlier versions (considering the date of completion stated in the subsequent editions of NRLD) were not there. Again, our applications for clarification in such cases were transferred to respective states.

We did get some response from the Central Water Commission and Maharashtra, which was once again hardly acceptable. In case of over a hundred dams, the CWC Director, Design and Research Coordination Directorate accepted the errors in NRLD and promised that 'Data entry errors/ omissions as indicated above will be rectified' without any satisfactory explanations.

Where are our dams located?
A quick review of the latest NRLD raises some fresh questions. In one of its exercises, SANDRP wanted to check how many dams there were in the different river basins/sub basins. This is an important question from a number of perspectives including cumulative impacts, optimisation of dam operations, hydrological carrying capacity and cumulative dam safety issues, to name a few. Ostensibly, this should have been a simple enough exercise.

However, when we started looking at the 5187 large dams of India listed in the NRLD, we found that in most cases, there is no name for the river on which the dam is constructed. When counted, we were shocked that in case of 2687 or 51.8% of large dams of India, the NRLD does not mention the name of the river! In most cases they just write 'local river' or 'local Nallah,' or the box under river is left blank. Under the circumstances, it is not possible to get a clear picture of any river basin, or use the list to identify cumulative impacts or safety aspects or possibility of optimisation of the dams in any one river basin. The absence of such basic information reflects very poorly on the quality of the NRLD, and on the CWC and respective states.

The worst performers
India's largest dam builder state, namely Maharashtra, also has the largest number for which it does not know the name or location of the rivers or tributaries. Out of 1845 large dams in Maharashtra, for 1243 cases, Maharashtra does not know the name of the rivers on which these are constructed! That means in case of 67.37% of its dams, the state has not specified the names of the rivers. It is not just for the old dams, but even for 81 of the dams completed after 2000, that this holds true - for example, the relatively larger 61.19 m high Berdewadi dam (completed in 2001) and the 48 m high Tarandale dam (completed in 2007).

In percentage terms, Madhya Pradesh fares even worse than Maharashtra, as it does not know the names of the rivers for 90.17% of its dams (817 dams out of total of 906). Chhattisgarh is the worst in this aspect, as it does not know names of the rivers for 227 of its 259 large dams. These three states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh collectively do not know the names of the rivers for 2287 of all dams listed in NRLD. Some of the other states that should also share the 'honours' here are Gujarat (138 dams out of 666 for which names of rivers are not known), Andhra Pradesh (124 out of total of 337) and Rajasthan (71 out of 211 large dams).

It is a disturbing situation that the agencies that are responsible for our large dams do not even know the names of the rivers on which they are located. Every river in India has a name, so if someone were to argue that these rivers do not have names, it wouldn't be an acceptable excuse. Without the names of the rivers and locations of the various dams on specific rivers, we cannot even start looking at crucial issues such as dam safety, cumulative social and environmental impacts, and hydrological carrying capacity and optimum utilisation of the storage created behind the dams. We clearly have far to go to even start knowing our dams and rivers. 

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Sunanda Pushkar Report 'Politically Motivated': AIIMS Doc

In a fresh twist to the Sunanda Pushkar death case, a doctor associated with the Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has claimed that the “intake of acetaminophen (a paracetamol) with alcohol” resulted in the death of Sunanda, wife of Congress MP and former Union minister Shashi Tharoor.

He termed the latest medical report sent to the Delhi Police on 29 December by AIIMS - in which a panel of doctors has suggested that the death occurred due to poisoning but did not ascertain the nature of the poison – as being “politically motivated”.

Monday, August 30, 2021

Top 8 Useful Examples Of Artificial Intelligence

If you searched the term "Artificial Intelligence" on Google and found this article, then you have used AI (and hopefully benefited from it). 

AI is a term that can be used to take you on a ride with Uber or have your phone correct a misspelled word. Artificial intelligence profoundly impacts almost all aspects of our lives, even though it might not be obvious. We'll be looking at eight ways artificial intelligence can save us time, money, energy, and effort in our daily lives. 

What is Artificial Intelligence?

It is essential to understand precisely what Artificial Intelligence is before determining how it impacts our lives.

Artificial intelligence, or statistical analysis, is how computers can act on data to analyze and understand it. This is an automated process. Artificially intelligent machines can recognize patterns of behavior and adapt their responses accordingly. This article "What is Artificial Intelligence?" provides a more detailed definition.

Machine learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), and natural language processing are the essential components of AI.

Machine learning allows machines to learn better based on big structured data and continuous feedback from humans and algorithms.

Deep Learning is often considered to be an advanced form of ML. It learns through representations, but data doesn't need to be structured.

Natural Language Processing (NLP), a tool for linguistic analysis in computer science, is one example. It allows machines to understand and read human language. NLP will enable computers to convert human speech into computer inputs. As an AI enthusiast, you need to master all the skills to grow your business. Dedicated AI ML Course by E&ICT Academy, NIT Warangal will give you an in-depth knowledge of various Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models to increase business value. 

8 Examples Of Artificial Intelligence

Here are eight examples of Artificial Intelligence that you might come across every day.

1. Navigation and maps

AI has greatly improved travel. You no longer need to rely on printed directions or maps. Instead, you can use Waze, Google, or Apple Maps on your smartphone and enter your destination.

How does the application know where it should go? What's more, it can determine the best route, traffic jams, and road obstacles. While satellite-based GPS was the only option, users now have access to artificial intelligence.

Machine learning allows the algorithms to remember the edges and numbers of buildings it has seen. It makes the maps more accurate and helps with the recognition and understanding of building numbers and houses. It has trained to recognize changes in traffic flow and recommend routes that avoid congestion and roadblocks.

2. Facial Recognition and Detection

Artificial intelligence is now a part of our everyday lives. Face ID allows us to unlock our phones, and virtual filters can be applied to our faces while taking photos. Facial recognition is also used for surveillance and security by government facilities and at airports.

3. Text Editors or Autocorrect

AI algorithms use machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing to identify incorrect usage of language and suggest corrections in word processors, texting apps, and every other written medium, it seems. Computer scientists and linguists work together to teach computers grammar just as you were taught in school. The editors will notice if you are using the wrong comma.

4. Search and Recommendation Algorithms

Have you ever noticed that when you shop online or watch a movie, the recommendations you receive are often in line with your recent searches or interests? Intelligent recommendation systems learn your online behavior and preferences over time. Data is collected from the user at the front end and stored. The data can then be analyzed using machine learning and deep learning. The information is used to predict your preferences and provide recommendations for what you might like to listen to or buy next.

5. Chatbots

Customer service interactions can be stressful and time-consuming.  Companies find it inefficient, expensive, and difficult to manage. One increasingly popular artificially intelligent solution to this is the use of AI chatbots. These algorithms allow machines to answer commonly asked questions, track orders and make direct calls.

Natural language processing (NLP) teaches chatbots how to mimic customer service representatives' conversational styles. Advanced chatbots do not require any specific inputs (e.g., yes/no questions). They can answer complex questions that need detailed answers. Giving the bot a negative rating for its response will correct the error and make it right the next time. It ensures maximum customer satisfaction.

6. Digital Assistants

Sometimes, when we are overwhelmed, we resort to digital assistants to help us. You might ask your assistant to call your mom while you're driving. An AI virtual assistant like Siri can access your contacts and identify "Mom" before calling the number. These assistants use NLP and ML, statistical analysis, and algorithmic execution to determine what you want and attempt to get it. Voice and image searches work the same.

7. Social Media

Social media apps use AI to support content monitoring, suggest connections, and serve ads to targeted users.

Through keyword recognition and visual image recognition, AI algorithms can quickly identify and remove inappropriate posts. Deep learning's neural network architecture is an essential part of this process. But it doesn't end there.

Social media companies understand that their users are their products and use AI to connect them to advertisers and marketers identified their profiles. Social media AI can also determine the type of content that users like and suggest similar content.

8. E-Payments

It is a waste of time to go to the bank for every transaction. AI is a factor in why you haven't visited a branch in five years. Banks are using artificial intelligence to simplify payment processes and facilitate customers.

Intelligent algorithms make it possible to deposit money, transfer money, and open accounts from any location. This is thanks to AI security, identity management, and privacy controls.

You can even detect potential fraud by looking at credit card spending patterns. It is another example of artificial intelligence. These algorithms can determine what products User X purchases, location, and price range.

The system will alert you if there is unusual activity. #KhabarLive #hydnews 

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

There's A Glaring Inequality Between Health Insurance Benefits Given To Men And Women

By NEWSCOP | INNLIVE

For the age group of 70 and above, for every claim paid to a woman, more than 11 were paid to men.

In the last five years, when there were major concerns over the country’s economic growth, the Indian health insurance industry was doing surprisingly well. In fact, it had been growing at more than double the rate of the overall economy, according to data from Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Opinion: US Prez Barack Obama For Republic Day In India! This Is Just 'Public Relations' Not 'Diplomacy'

So, President Obama is coming to town. And how!

Over the past 24 hours, the nation has been treated to a blitz of fawning headlines and breathless commentary about how, thanks to Narendra Modi's "out of the box thinking" and "unconventional diplomacy", a US President would be attending the R-Day celebrations for the first time.

In its excitement to play up the event ("unprecedented", "momentous", "unthinkable") the media has not allowed facts to come in the way resulting in a deluge of half-baked theories, absurd analysis and disputed claims.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Indus Valley code is cracked

By Raja Murthy

A 4,500-year-old mystery has been revived, with Indian-American scientists claiming on April 23 that the puzzling symbols that were found on Indus Valley seals are indeed the written script of a language from an ancient civilization.

But skeptics, such as historian Steve Farmer and Harvard University Indologist Michael Witzel, say that claims of the Indus Valley civilization having a written language, and therefore a literate culture, are generally created by pseudo-nationalists from India, Hindu chauvinists and right-wing political frauds who wish to glorify the existence of an ancient Hindu civilization.

The civilization on the banks of the 2,900-kilometer long Indus, one of the world's great rivers with a water volume twice that of the Nile, is said to have flourished between 2600 BC to 1900 BC.

Unlike its river valley contemporaries in ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia and China, very little is known about the Indus Valley civilization, largely because its "script" is yet to be deciphered, even though ruins were excavated 130 years ago.

There appears little doubt that a reasonably advanced civilization thrived in the Indus Valley before mysteriously vanishing. But for the past decade, scholars and scientists worldwide have argued whether engravings found on hundreds of Indus Valley objects, such as seals and tablets, are a mysterious script of a language - like the ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics - or whether they are merely non-lingual signs or pictograms.

On April 23, the US-based Science journal published a paper by an Indian and Indian-American team of scientists and researchers that claimed patterns of symbols found on Indus objects had the definitive linguistic pattern found in written languages. Such a pattern is different from non-linguistic signs.

The paper, titled "'Entropic Evidence for Linguistic Structure in the Indus Script”, featured the findings of Indian-born researchers at the University of Washington in Seattle and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in Mumbai.

It claims computer analysis revealed comparative "entropic evidence" that Indus signs have a linguistic order similar to some of the world's oldest languages, such as Sumerian from Mesopotamia, classical Tamil and Sanskrit from the Indian sub-continent.

Comparative entropy involves a mathematical process by which an unknown variable can be theoretically determined using known related variables. In this case, researchers say they used computer analysis to compare the pattern of Indus symbols with the patterns of known spoken and mathematical languages. This is the first time that such a process has been used to determine whether unknown symbols are the written script of a language.

"The findings provide quantitative evidence suggesting that the people of the 4,500-year-old Indus civilization may have used writing to represent linguistic content," said project leader Rajesh Rao, a computer scientist at the University of Washington.

"If this is indeed true," Rao told Asia Times Online, "then deciphering the script would provide us with unique insights into the lives and culture of the Indus people."

The 130-year-old excavations in the Indus Valley, covering areas in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, have revealed evidence of an urban civilization. Ruins of excavated Indus Valley cities such as Mohenjadaro and Harappa have revealed elaborate urban infrastructure such as well-planned streets, brick houses, sophisticated drainage and water-storage systems, trading, use of weights, jewelry, knowledge of metallurgy and tool-making. Archaeologists say many more Indus Valley cities are yet to be excavated.

The problem is that any new "path-breaking" Indus Valley research findings have to pass credibility tests. The Indus Valley puzzle took a more crooked dimension in the past decade. India's right-wing political outfits that grew in this period, such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have been known to make clumsy, ridiculously amateurish attempts to "rewrite" over 5,000 years of Indian history.

Such fake coloring of authentic Indian and Hindu religious history was to feed a narrow-minded sectarian, political and chauvinistic agenda. The BJP has denied such history-faking tricks. But a senior BJP worker in Kolkata, an art critic by profession, told this correspondent in 2003 that he was engaged in rewriting history textbooks. The BJP was then heading India's central government.

This history tomfoolery included attempts to portray the Indus Valley culture as a Hindu civilization. Some fraudsters have even produced fake Indus seals as "proof" of an advanced society with rich, as yet undiscovered, literature.

But the genuine Indus symbols are merely simple non-linguistic signs common in the ancient world, according to a controversial paper in 2004 titled "The Collapse of the Indus-Script Thesis: The Myth of a Literate Harappan Civilization". The paper was written by comparative historian Steve Farmer; Richard Sproat, a biomedical computer scientist at the Oregon Health and Science University, Portland; and Michael Witzel, an Indologist from the Department of Sanskrit and Indian studies at Harvard University.

Five years later, in 2009, Rajesh Rao and his colleagues' year-long study claimed to have debunked the debunkers Farmer, Sproat and Witzel. The California-based Packard Foundation and Mumbai-based Sir Jamsetji Tata Trust sponsored the project. The global media reported on Rao's April 23 Science Journal paper supporting claims that the Indus symbols are the written script of an ancient language.

However, the original Indus script debunkers refuse to be debunked. In a quick counter response dated April 24, Farmer and Co rubbished the Washington University study. Their two-page answer was cheekily titled, "A Refutation of the Claimed Refutation of the Nonlinguistic Nature of Indus Symbols: Invented Data Sets in the Statistical Paper of Rao et al. (Science, 2009)". Farmer and Co argued that Rao and Co had compared the Indus sign sets with "artificial sets of random and ordered signs”.

They said the Rao study proved nothing that is not known - that is, "the Indus sign system has some kind of rough structure, which has been known since the 1920s”, said their rejoinder.

"Indus Valley texts are cryptic to extremes, and the script shows few signs of evolutionary change," Farmer and Witzel wrote in October 2000. "Most [Indus] inscriptions are no more than four or five characters long; many contain only two or three characters. Moreover, character shapes in mature Harappa appear to be strangely 'frozen', unlike anything seen in ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia or China."

The left-leaning Indian news magazine Frontline carried Farmer's and Witzel's article in a cover story titled "Horseplay in Harappa - In the 'Piltdown Horse' hoax, Hindutva propagandists make a little Sanskrit go a long way”. The article debunked sensational claims in 1999 that the Indus script had been "deciphered" by N S Rajaram and Natwar Jha.

The motive of this fraud was to prove that the Indus civilization was an early Hindu civilization. As proof, Rajaram and Jha produced an Indus Valley "horse" seal as evidence that the Indus people used horses, an animal commonly mentioned in the Vedas, the ancient Indian texts dating to the 2nd millennium BC - over 2,000 years later than the earliest dated Indus Valley seals. But no images of horses were found in the Indus Valley excavations, until Rajaram and Jha produced their horse seal.

Farmer and Witzel proved that the horse seal was a fraudulent computerized distortion of a broken "unicorn bull" seal. The fake horse seal was derided as the "Piltdown Horse", an imaginary creation to fill the gap between the Harappan and Vedic cultures, just as the famous "Piltdown Man" did in 1912. That year, skeletal remains of the "missing link" between ape and man were "discovered" in Piltdown, a village in England. They were later found to be fake.

In their April 23 paper, Rao's team said they compared statistical patterns in sequences of Indus symbols with sequences in known ancient and modern spoken languages, computer language and natural sequences such as in human DNA.

While Farmer and Co claim in their April 24 rebuttal that Rao's team used limited and artificial comparative language tools, Rao's team says the comparative computer analysis included:

1,548 lines of Indus text and 7,000 signs, from veteran Indus scholar Iravatham Mahadevan's 1977 compilation from the Archaeology Society of India.

20,000 sentences from The Brown University Present Day Standard Corpus of Present-Day American English - a well-known dataset compiled from a wide range of texts including press reports, editorials, books, magazines, novels, scientific articles and short stories.

100 Sanskrit hymns from Book 1 of the Rig Veda, said to be composed between 1700-1100 BC.

"Ettuthokai", or "Eight Texts", anthologies of poems in classical Tamil from the Sangam Era, circa 300 BC to 300 AD.

Sumerian - nearly 400 literary compositions dated between 3 BC and 2 BC.

DNA - first one million nucleotides in the human chromosome 2, obtained from the Human Genome Project.

Protein - the entire collection of amino acid sequences from the Bacteria Escherichia Coli, more famous as E coli.

Programming Language - 28,594 lines of code from FORTRAN.

Both camps are adamant they are right. But both could be wrong, given how vested interests and human egos often stubbornly cling to inaccurate views by seeing what they want to see, instead of reality as it is.

If the Indus Valley has an equivalent to the sensational 18th-century discovery of the Rosetta Stone, considered one of the greatest-ever historical finds, that would indeed confirm whether the Indus symbols are a written language - one possibly opening the doorway to an unknown civilization. An officer in Napoleon Bonaparte's invading French army, Captain Pierre-Francois Bouchard, found a grey-pinkish granite stone in an Egyptian village called Rosetta on July 15, 1799.

Dating to 196 BC and displayed in the British Museum since 1802, the Rosetta plaque carried a royal decree in Egyptian and Greek in three scripts - Hieroglyphic, Demotic Egyptian and Greek. Since Greek was a known language, stunned scholars could use the translation to decipher the 3,500-year-old hieroglyphics. The doorway to ancient Egypt was opened to the modern world.

Even if the Indus Valley symbols are indeed a written script, there is little chance of deciphering them unless a Rosettta Stone equivalent is available. Archaeologists from India and Pakistan continue to work at Indus Valley sites, unearthing new discoveries each year.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Focus: The Chilling Truth Of 'Ice Cream Vs Frozen Dessert'

As a consumer, whether I am buying a shirt that claims to be linen, or whether it's a face cream, I like to know whether I am getting my money's worth. And it's no different when it comes to food.  So how do you think I felt when I got a carton of ice cream and in a small, inconspicuous corner, I see the label - frozen dessert. And it only got worse from there.

Today, in India, frozen dessert has taken over as much as 40% of the ice cream segment. Is that such a bad thing?

Monday, August 20, 2007

Herd panic pushing bourse bounces

By M H Ahsan & Yuang Chow Yo


Asia's stock markets are on a roller-coaster ride, last week dipping drastically on financial contagion fears about the faltering US subprime-mortgage market, and on Monday recovering strongly after the US Federal Reserve in a surprise move cut a key benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. But are market forces reacting rationally to Asia's underlying profit and loss prospects?


Asian markets tumbled in near-unison last week, with some bourses notching single-day losses not seen since the September 11, 2001, terror attacks against the United States. On Friday, Japan's stock exchange recorded its largest one-day loss in more than seven years, shedding 5.5% of its value. The South Korean bourse recorded its worst performance ever last week over any given three-day period, shedding more than 200 points. On Friday, financial hub Hong Kong's exchange lost more than 6.5% of its total value, while Singapore's stock market dropped 6% on Friday.


Malaysia recorded its largest one-day loss ever, 5.3%, also on Friday. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines were similarly all hit hard last week, falling respectively by 6%, 13.5% and 12%. On Monday, regional markets bounced back to varying degrees, propelled up by Friday's sudden US interest-rate cut. Japanese stocks jumped 3%, Seoul's bourse was up 5.7%, and Hong Kong was up 3.6% in late trade. Singapore was up 5%, and other Southeast Asian markets also gained. So what happens next? Some financial analysts argue that the equity-market recovery is a knee-jerk reaction to the gains witnessed in the US on Friday, where the Federal Reserve's announcement drove up the Dow Jones main index by 1.8%.


The stock-market recovery, they say, also prices in widespread expectations of another 50-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's next monetary-policy meeting, scheduled for September. Yet if the US subprime-mortgage market continues its decline and begins to transmit financial contagion through the broad US housing market, where median prices appear to outpace widely individual borrowers' underlying earning power, the US economy could in a worst-case scenario slip into recession. Speculation is rife that the global financial order, now through financial liberalization measures more integrated than ever, could be on the brink of a crisis as big as or larger than that witnessed in the 1980s US savings-and-loan meltdown and the bursting of the technology bubble in 2001.


Significantly, last week's contagion effect on Asia's stock markets was driven more by panic selling than any new critical revelations about the region's economic and financial fundamentals. Until last week, Asia's stock markets and currencies had in general this year performed strongly. Apart from Singapore and pockets of China, Asian real estate is frothy but has not experienced the runaway price-inflation rates witnessed in US property markets. Relative to US and European banks and investment funds, regional financial institutions are believed to hold only small amounts of the derivative products that contain securitized subprime US housing loans.


Last week's financial turbulence in Asia was driven more by revised downward expectations that a slowing US economy would consume considerably less of the region's exports. All of Asia's major economies run big trade surpluses with the US. Southeast Asia's major trade-geared economies, including Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, which export huge amounts of consumer electronics and their component parts to the US, are all exposed to shifts in US consumer sentiment. However, some regional economists argue that that basic analysis is simplistic.


Frederic Neumann, a Hong Kong-based economist at HSBC, argues in a recent research report that "the region has decoupled to a surprising degree from US demand conditions, and that even if the American economy were to slow down further, Asia could be only mildly affected". He argues that the region's "growth drivers" have become more balanced in recent years, with China and the European Union becoming more prominent, and that a deceleration in US economic growth will have a "less severe" impact on Asian than in the past. Recent HSBC sensitivity analysis shows that a 1% decline in US gross domestic product would have an equal or greater impact on only three Asian economies, namely Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. The negative effect on China was surprisingly only 0.2% for each 1% decline in US growth.


At the same time, Asia's financial fundamentals are much improved from the last time financial contagion pummeled the region in 1997-98, hedging substantially the risk of a repeat broad-based economic meltdown. Central banks across the region have stockpiled unprecedented amounts of foreign-currency reserves to defend both their currencies and their banks from speculative offshore attacks. Although not universally, several countries in the region have also substantially improved their debt management, with governments reining in their public-debt profiles and corporations trimming the debt-to-equity ratios that left many of them vulnerable to the sudden shift in foreign-investor sentiment in 1997-98.


Many Asian governments are now in a financial position to prime the fiscal pumps of their economies if US growth and demand tail off significantly. While foreign money last week rushed out of regional bourses to cover subprime-mortgage-hit financial positions in the US, last week's capital flight could be a short-term phenomenon - even if the US slips into recession. Faced with tanking economic growth in the US, institutional money will inevitably seek out higher returns overseas. Asia's comparatively strong fundamentals and, in many business sectors, low price-to-equity ratios represent a natural counter-cyclical hedge against slowing US growth.


Representatives of big US-based hedge funds who before last week's turmoil met with Asia Times Online had been trolling Southeast Asia for undervalued stocks exposed to local consumption rather than global exports. To be sure, there are countervailing concerns that Asia's recent large balance-of-payments surpluses and subsequent buildup of foreign reserves have resulted in buoyant domestic money supplies. Regional central banks have to varying degrees of success attempted to sterilize those capital inflows to avoid a more rapid appreciation of their already rising currencies. Over the past year, domestic monetary aggregates, commonly known as M1 and M2, have soared across the region.


There are at least theoretical risks that, if mismanaged, sterilization of capital inflows could cause new inflationary pressures and asset price bubbles. Economists say that to date, neither is statistically apparent across most of Asia, nor were foreign-investor concerns over recent monetary interventions apparently a contributing factor to last week's financial turmoil. Indeed, HSBC's Neumann notes that in Asia over the past 15 years, there has been a weak empirical link between broad money-supply growth and stock prices. In Thailand and Japan, the relationship has historically been negative, while in Singapore, Malaysia and Pakistan the correlation is stronger but not significant. Neumann notes that in all major Asian markets, money-supply growth historically tends to lag rather than lead asset-price gains.


A recent Asian Development Bank report shows instead that the recent rise in Asian asset prices was driven more by capital inflows than domestic liquidity. Investor risk perceptions, however, are often more subjective than empirical, and herd behavior is still clearly the rule rather than the exception. As such, Asia could still be dragged down in tandem with a US slowdown, whether from underlying financial and economic measures the region deserves to be or not.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Special Report: The Echoing Silence Of Casteism In India

By Mir Barkat Shah | INNLIVE

Whenever the caste issue is raised, it is alleged that it is a nefarious design to divide an otherwise united Hindu community, and a problem that is internal to it. How is it a ‘Hindu problem’ when Islam, Christianity and Sikhism in India are equally bedevilled by it?

What then did you expect when you unbound the gag that had muted those black mouths? That they would chant your praises? Did you think that when those heads that our fathers had forcibly bowed down to the ground were raised again, you would find adoration in their eyes?

Friday, May 03, 2013

'THE RICH, THE CRIMINAL AND THE ILLETRATE'

By CJ Khaja Pasha in Bangalore

Three candidates in the forthcoming Assembly elections, one from the JD (S) and two from the BSR Congress, are illiterate. According to data released by Karnataka Election Watch (KEW) here on Monday, 16 candidates, including one from the Congress, two from the BJP, and four each from the JD (S) and KJP, are just about literate.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

AAP Can Turn Out To Be The Game-Changer In Poll 2014

By Newscop | INNLIVE

ANALYSIS A group of activists that used to take up issues of public interest and worked mostly as pressure and interest groups had come together to form a party one day which transformed them from being activists to politicians!

The issue-specific workers now had bigger a aim to pursue a much clearer objective. The bunch of greenhorns, mostly young enthusiasts, aged between early 20s to late 30s, worked hard to make an indelible markon the political platform.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Pakistan Printing And Circulating 'Fake Indian Currency'

By Aniket Sahu / INN Live

Indian security agencies have known it for long. Several arrested underworld and terror operatives have confirmed it repeatedly. Now the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has nailed the Pakistan government's imprint on fake Indian currency notes (FICN) pumped into the country. This proof of counterfeit war can't be denied or erased.

Friday, May 15, 2015

One Year Of Modi Govt: Expectations Are Flying Very High

One year of Narendra Modi government: Jokes sometimes have a way of capturing truth more effectively than analysis.

Jokes sometimes have a way of capturing truth more effectively than analysis. The measure of the present government is captured by this one going around: What is the difference between the UPA and the NDA? In the UPA we had a government and no prime minister; in the NDA we have a prime minister and no government. This has an element of cruel exaggeration. But it highlights the central tension of one year of Narendra Modi’s government.

Saturday, January 04, 2014

Now, For New 'Telangana State': No Constitutional Barriers

By M H Ahssan | INN Live

CONSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS We must preserve the Union power to redraw State boundaries unfettered by new constitutional restraints as the flexibility to create suitable state-nation arrangement has sustained Indian federalism.

Now that the proposal for a new Telangana state has entered the legislative stage, in the State Assembly and subsequently Parliament, the constitutional question will take centre stage: does the absence of a supporting State Assembly resolution for the creation of a new Telangana state, an outcome which remains likely, render a parliamentary amendment unconstitutional? In this analysis I show that this constitutional question sits at the fault lines of two conflicting constitutional impulses on federalism in India: first, the imperative of crafting an accommodating state-nation and second, to guard against the excesses of venal partisan federalism. 

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Searching for a Silver Lining

The current global slowdown will have a silver lining for India if this opportunity to enhance competitiveness is fully utilised by the industry and exportable products and export markets are diversified, says Abhijit Das

Riding on the back of brisk growth in the global economy since 2002, India’s exports have witnessed a phenomenal three-fold rise during the period 2002-03 and 2007-08. This powerful dynamo for employment generation is now threatened by the liquidity crunch and declining global demand. India needs to properly manage the fallout from the current global slowdown on its export sector in order to limit adverse consequences for the employment situation.

A quick analysis by Unctad-India shows that a 10% decline in overall exports of goods from the 2006-07 level would result in a direct and indirect loss in employment of 2.2 million man-years. Sectors which are likely to witness job losses include traditional export sectors such textiles and clothing, metal and metal products and miscellaneous manufacturing.

Two additional noteworthy points emerge from this analysis. First, the agriculture sector would not remain unaffected. In particular, the food crops sector is likely to see sharp loss in employment as it has a high employment multiplier and provides crucial inputs to exports of the processed food industry, which has emerged as a dynamic sector. Second, employment in certain sectors such as minerals may take a severe hit — although these sectors may not contribute directly to India’s export share. The lesson is clear — sectors which provide inputs to the exporting sectors and have high employment multipliers would also be adversely affected.

In order to sustain the export momentum and contain job losses, the central government has finalised an economic stimulus package comprising measures aimed at easing the liquidity crunch and providing enhanced incentives to exporters. While these measures may provide some relief to the exporters, the present crisis should be used as an opportunity to address more deep-seated problems by adopting suitable mitigation strategies for sustaining the export growth in the long term. Following suggestions could be considered.

Despite targeted efforts by the government for seeking new markets for India’s exports, the EU and US continue to be the main destination of India’s exports. These two main markets account for nearly onethird of India’s exports, although the share of the US in India’s exports has reduced gradually over the years. China, Japan, West Asia and Asean provide viable and sustainable alternate markets for reducing India’s overwhelming reliance on the EU and US for its exports. Early conclusion and implementation of free trade agreement negotiations with some of these countries could provide India with attractive markets for reducing the risk of overall exports being adversely affected by developments in a few big markets.

Although the composition of India’s export basket has shown some changes over the past five years, this has been mainly due to the rise in exports of petroproducts. Given the sector’s capital-intensive nature, increased exports of petroproducts may not result in significant employment generation. Textiles and apparel, leather products, gems and jewellery and handicrafts continue to be the significant export-oriented and employment-intensive sectors. A more focused effort is required for diversifying India’s export basket to other employment-intensive sectors. As a preliminary exercise, industry could identify products and seek markets in which India is globally competitive. As an illustration, exporting organic chemical and pharmaceutical products could be explored in Chinese and Asean markets.

Indian industry needs to formulate and implement appropriate strategies for becoming part of global supply chains. While the auto part sector provides success stories, there is a need to have a hard look at sectors such as electronic components so that India can gain from the increasingly fragmented nature of global supply chains. With profit margins shrinking globally, competitiveness would be the most important determinant for acquiring a share in export markets abroad. Experts feel India should take advantage of its strength in IT and use it extensively to upgrade manufacturing and thereby increase the competitiveness of India’s exports. While some of the industries are actively engaged in this effort on a regular basis, innovative solutions are required in sectors such as handicrafts for harnessing IT for improving product designs and enhancing exportability of the products.

The race for access to raw materials at competitive price has picked pace and would accelerate in the coming years. This would be an important determinant of cost competitiveness of exports. In India, the prices of some raw materials and industrial inputs such as copper and aluminium have been significantly higher than the London Metal Exchange price. For example, during the period 2000–06 the difference between the price of copper in India and the LME price was in the range of 34% to 83%. However access to natural resources at competitive prices is often stymied by a myriad of complex rules and dual pricing endowed with the natural resource. Not much headway has been made on this issue in the Doha trade negotiations. As an alternative to direct imports of natural resources, some of the Indian enterprises could explore the possibility of outward FDI for accessing natural resources in foreign markets.

During periods of economic downturn many countries adopt protectionist trade measures such as imposing anti-dumping or countervailing duties on imports. Experience on this issue during the current economic downturn is not likely to be any different from the past. It needs to be recognised that India’s export incentives could be easily offset by the importing countries by imposing countervailing duties, as has happened in the past. This might render the new export incentives ineffective.

In order to sustain India’s export growth the need to preserve the existing market access in big economies becomes extremely important. While an early and satisfactory conclusion of the Doha Round would help in this regard, it is also essential to be vigilant that non-tariff measures do not act as a disguised trade restriction. India’s economic stimulus package might offer an immediate succour to the exporters. However, there is a need to develop and implement longterm measures that would ensure sustained export growth, which is not impeded by adverse developments in big foreign markets. The current global slowdown will have a silver lining if the opportunity offered to diversify exportable products and markets as also enhance competitiveness is fully utilised by the Indian industry.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Inside the mind of Rahul Gandhi

By M H Ahssan

Call it software politics. After buttons on the EVMs are pressed, data from the machines fed into the national network, votes dissected on 24x7 channels and the poll pundits proven wrong, the young man responsible for the grand old party’s near-decisive victory is sitting quietly on the backbench, showing no emotion.

He betrays neither the joy and relief of victory nor the strain of possible responsibilities in the future. The Cabinet position has been declined, at least for now. With the dust of the election battle settling, the party reins have been handed back to mother. So, what’s on Rahul Gandhi’s mind now? What has he been thinking the past couple of years, when he metamorphosed from dimpled poster-boy for dynasty to Congress’s campaigner-in-chief? How does he think?

Not politics so much perhaps, as management. Masters at Doon School, his father’s alma mater and his own from 1981 to 1983, remember him as a “quiet, shy boy”. One of the masters who tutored Rahul during his stay at the school’s Kashmir House recalls, “He left the school as quietly as he came. He was grandson of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, but he rarely talked about politics.”

Rahul went on to St Stephen’s College in Delhi, Harvard, Rollins College in Florida and finally Trinity College. He collected many degrees along the way and perhaps a philosophy of management as well. It was at Harvard that he studied under Michael E Porter whose ‘Five Forces Analysis’ — a business development strategy — seems to have influenced Rahul in a big way. Porter’s model analyses the forces “that affect a company’s ability to serve its customers and make a profit”. The theory insists that if an industry is attractive, every firm doesn’t have the same profitability. “Some firms are able to apply their core competences, business model or network to achieve a profit above the industry average”. Replace Porter’s ‘industry’ with politics and ‘firms’ with parties and the analysis works well in the jumble of Indian coalition politics.

It probably helps that Rahul has been employed in something other than Indian politics. After his Cambridge M Phil, he worked as a consultant with Porter’s Monitor Group in London for three years. That was where he honed the management and analytical skills that people now say with post-election hindsight make him a good politician. But Sam Pitroda, his father’s old colleague and head of the Technology Mission predicted this when Rahul entered politics in 2004: “He has worked under Michael Porter for four years...Rahul is methodical, analytical, mature and sincere... He is extremely intelligent and at ease with cyber technology...”

Rahul’s buddies and aides say he has transferred his management skills to the Indian countryside in the year-and-a-half that he has been on a ‘Discovery of India’ tour. Jitin Prasada, Congress MP, says, “Rahul has an innate belief in the strength of rural India. When British foreign secretary was taken to Amethi, it was not as was charged by rivals to mock the poor, but it was to show the strength of rural India. He goes out to villages, connects with people and sees the reality himself. And then he analyses and conceives ideas through that first-hand experience, not by closed-door ideating in Delhi. That is his originality”.

Fawning politicians and pundits alike admit Rahul’s way of thinking is clear from all that he has done at the grassroots in Amethi. “He has a vision for the future. Rahul always thinks and talks in long terms,” says Kalyan Singh Gandhi, AICC member from Rae Bareli and long-standing family confidante. Singh describes Rahul’s management philosophy seen at first hand. He created a network of workers across Amethi — 16 blocks, 160 nyaya panchayats, 750 gram sabhas and a samooh pramukh for a cluster of 50 homes. “He organized a camp for all the workers and they were trained by top management experts from Mumbai and abroad on how to reach out to people. The samooh pramukhs are supposed to look after the people all the and take care of all their needs — from water to pension to help in marriages”.

Now, Rahul plans to replicate the Amethi model, where he has 9,000 active party workers, across the country. But some say the plan is merely a marketing strategy. “It’s really credible the way the Congress marketed itself in the past two years. But, it’s just marketing. Where are the results for the people?” says Ranjan Chaudhary, a Dalit and IIM-Lucknow graduate who quit his MNC job in Melbourne to join Rahul’s core team in 2004. “He has many good ideas but no clarity on how to go about it,” says Chaudhary, who left Rahul’s team last year and contested a UP seat as a BJP candidate. “He has no place for emotions. It’s only management”.

True or not, the management guru is reaping rich dividends.

Sunday, April 23, 2006

The risks of buying talent

By Nandini Sharma

Buying talent is a complex process. An analysis on why organisations need to be cautious
For a knowledge-intensive industry like information technology, the ability to recruit, retain, motivate, and develop the people resources is the greatest competitive strength for any organisation.


Companies often resort to aggressive recruitment strategies to meet the demand for talent. Buying talent is a common phenomenon when organisations have to suddenly procure skill sets from the market in response to urgent business needs. The question is: does an organisation always get what it has paid for? The answer is as debatable as the issue whether it indicates lack of career roadmap for key positions within the organisation.

An organisation needs to buy talent when it is in an evolving stage. N Muralidharan, Managing Director & Vice-President, Jobstreet.com India, lists the three situations when such a need arises:

There is an expansion and urgency to hit the market soon and needs "ready-made" staff; "go to market" pressures. It is entering the business late and has no time for building talent from scratch, so poaching from competition is the best option. This, of course, comes at a price.

When internally an organisation does not have the kind of talent that it is looking for and there is an urgent need.
There are a few like Sadhana Somasekhar, Director and Chief Marketing Officer, Future Focus Infotech, who believe that most organisations with a mature recruitment/hiring model do not opt for the "buy" route. They attribute this to the organisation's business conduct or ethics, HR strategy and so on. However, at the grassroots level, the reasons that go against buy-outs appear to be the instability associated with such 'bought-out' resources, both with respect to the candidate and within the team. This also sets a precedence with new hires. Somasekhar adds that when there is a buy-out, it is often masked in the guise of a "joining bonus", which is in truth the reimbursement of the "short or no-notice" compensation borne by the candidate to his last employer.

Getting your money's worth
Buying talent is not as easy as buying a commodity, it is a complex process. An organisation does not always get its money's worth. It is in fact a two-way process. Muralidharan acknowledges that while the person hired could be appropriate, if the work related ambience and the product offering is not up to the mark, it may still not work. "To give an analogy, you might have a popular celebrity endorsing your product but if the offering is not appropriate the returns do not match expectation," he says.

Vikram Bhardwaj, Managing Consultant, Redileon executive search, insists that more than the monetary cost vs benefit comparisons, one has to view this more strategically—the opportunity or hidden costs need to be accounted for.

Talent that is procured directly from the market comes with proven experience, but is expected to differ from the organisation's own situation, requirement and culture. "Such cases will give rise to differentials in expectations and deliverables. What really rides the moment out is the maturity of the hiring organisation in recognising and expecting such events, and preparing to manage interests accordingly," says Monisha Advani, CEO, EmmayHR Services.

The risks involved
Buying talent is not as easy as it seems. There are many risks associated with the process. Advani lists a few key factors:

Price: You can land up paying over market indicators for a specific skill purely on the basis of a short-term analysis of your need to procure and land up with a long-term cost impact that can become difficult to sustain
Compensation expectations may change organisation or department wide on account of this external lateral introduction, leading to employee cost escalation.

Expectations and culture matching are perennial risks applicable to all employment engagement scenarios, only in this case, the cost impact tends to be higher. Culture mismatch is in fact one of the key problem areas, particularly at management levels.

Build or buy
The debate over building vs buying talent has been in existence for a long time. While buying talent has its just-in-time significance, from a long-term organisation development perspective building talent within the company has greater benefits. "The advantage of building talent is that it gives organisations the ability to mould skills the way they want it to be. The other factor is loyalty—you will have this pool locked in with the organisation for a longer period of time as compared to the ones that you buy. The chance that they share the long-term vision of the organisation is high. However, the downside is that there is a huge investment in terms of cost and time required to build talent. Then there is also this uncertainty of losing the talent after investing to build it," says Madan Padaki, Co-founder & Director, MeritTrac Services (a skills assessment company).

Lack of a career roadmap
It is believed that buying talent indicates a lack of career roadmap for key positions within the organisation. Experts are divided over this issue. Bhardwaj concedes that despite most companies progressively implementing robust performance-management systems, this always does not translate into effective career planning that lets people see and evaluate where they could go in their careers, which leads to attrition and then follows the urge to replace from outside since the company is also not clear as to who can take charge of the roles effectively.

There is also an interesting new development in the market. Explains Bhardwaj, "With the increasing business demand for a timely and consistent HR support, what used to be only the 'build' vs 'buy' decision has been expanded to include the 'build' vs 'buy' vs 'borrow' to include the option of temping.

The HR matrix and decision support mechanisms have evolved considerably to account for this change." The "build" vs "buy" phenomenon is all set for change with temping becoming the third alternative.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Herd panic pushing bourse bounces

By M H Ahsan & Yuang Chow Yo

Asia's stock markets are on a roller-coaster ride, last week dipping drastically on financial contagion fears about the faltering US subprime-mortgage market, and on Monday recovering strongly after the US Federal Reserve in a surprise move cut a key benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. But are market forces reacting rationally to Asia's underlying profit and loss prospects?

Asian markets tumbled in near-unison last week, with some bourses notching single-day losses not seen since the September 11, 2001, terror attacks against the United States. On Friday, Japan's stock exchange recorded its largest one-day loss in more than seven years, shedding 5.5% of its value. The South Korean bourse recorded its worst performance ever last week over any given three-day period, shedding more than 200 points. On Friday, financial hub Hong Kong's exchange lost more than 6.5% of its total value, while Singapore's stock market dropped 6% on Friday.

Malaysia recorded its largest one-day loss ever, 5.3%, also on Friday. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines were similarly all hit hard last week, falling respectively by 6%, 13.5% and 12%. On Monday, regional markets bounced back to varying degrees, propelled up by Friday's sudden US interest-rate cut. Japanese stocks jumped 3%, Seoul's bourse was up 5.7%, and Hong Kong was up 3.6% in late trade. Singapore was up 5%, and other Southeast Asian markets also gained. So what happens next? Some financial analysts argue that the equity-market recovery is a knee-jerk reaction to the gains witnessed in the US on Friday, where the Federal Reserve's announcement drove up the Dow Jones main index by 1.8%.

The stock-market recovery, they say, also prices in widespread expectations of another 50-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's next monetary-policy meeting, scheduled for September. Yet if the US subprime-mortgage market continues its decline and begins to transmit financial contagion through the broad US housing market, where median prices appear to outpace widely individual borrowers' underlying earning power, the US economy could in a worst-case scenario slip into recession. Speculation is rife that the global financial order, now through financial liberalization measures more integrated than ever, could be on the brink of a crisis as big as or larger than that witnessed in the 1980s US savings-and-loan meltdown and the bursting of the technology bubble in 2001.

Significantly, last week's contagion effect on Asia's stock markets was driven more by panic selling than any new critical revelations about the region's economic and financial fundamentals. Until last week, Asia's stock markets and currencies had in general this year performed strongly. Apart from Singapore and pockets of China, Asian real estate is frothy but has not experienced the runaway price-inflation rates witnessed in US property markets. Relative to US and European banks and investment funds, regional financial institutions are believed to hold only small amounts of the derivative products that contain securitized subprime US housing loans.

Last week's financial turbulence in Asia was driven more by revised downward expectations that a slowing US economy would consume considerably less of the region's exports. All of Asia's major economies run big trade surpluses with the US. Southeast Asia's major trade-geared economies, including Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, which export huge amounts of consumer electronics and their component parts to the US, are all exposed to shifts in US consumer sentiment. However, some regional economists argue that that basic analysis is simplistic.

Frederic Neumann, a Hong Kong-based economist at HSBC, argues in a recent research report that "the region has decoupled to a surprising degree from US demand conditions, and that even if the American economy were to slow down further, Asia could be only mildly affected". He argues that the region's "growth drivers" have become more balanced in recent years, with China and the European Union becoming more prominent, and that a deceleration in US economic growth will have a "less severe" impact on Asian than in the past. Recent HSBC sensitivity analysis shows that a 1% decline in US gross domestic product would have an equal or greater impact on only three Asian economies, namely Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. The negative effect on China was surprisingly only 0.2% for each 1% decline in US growth.

At the same time, Asia's financial fundamentals are much improved from the last time financial contagion pummeled the region in 1997-98, hedging substantially the risk of a repeat broad-based economic meltdown. Central banks across the region have stockpiled unprecedented amounts of foreign-currency reserves to defend both their currencies and their banks from speculative offshore attacks. Although not universally, several countries in the region have also substantially improved their debt management, with governments reining in their public-debt profiles and corporations trimming the debt-to-equity ratios that left many of them vulnerable to the sudden shift in foreign-investor sentiment in 1997-98.

Many Asian governments are now in a financial position to prime the fiscal pumps of their economies if US growth and demand tail off significantly. While foreign money last week rushed out of regional bourses to cover subprime-mortgage-hit financial positions in the US, last week's capital flight could be a short-term phenomenon - even if the US slips into recession. Faced with tanking economic growth in the US, institutional money will inevitably seek out higher returns overseas. Asia's comparatively strong fundamentals and, in many business sectors, low price-to-equity ratios represent a natural counter-cyclical hedge against slowing US growth.

Representatives of big US-based hedge funds who before last week's turmoil met with Asia Times Online had been trolling Southeast Asia for undervalued stocks exposed to local consumption rather than global exports. To be sure, there are countervailing concerns that Asia's recent large balance-of-payments surpluses and subsequent buildup of foreign reserves have resulted in buoyant domestic money supplies. Regional central banks have to varying degrees of success attempted to sterilize those capital inflows to avoid a more rapid appreciation of their already rising currencies. Over the past year, domestic monetary aggregates, commonly known as M1 and M2, have soared across the region.

There are at least theoretical risks that, if mismanaged, sterilization of capital inflows could cause new inflationary pressures and asset price bubbles. Economists say that to date, neither is statistically apparent across most of Asia, nor were foreign-investor concerns over recent monetary interventions apparently a contributing factor to last week's financial turmoil. Indeed, HSBC's Neumann notes that in Asia over the past 15 years, there has been a weak empirical link between broad money-supply growth and stock prices. In Thailand and Japan, the relationship has historically been negative, while in Singapore, Malaysia and Pakistan the correlation is stronger but not significant. Neumann notes that in all major Asian markets, money-supply growth historically tends to lag rather than lead asset-price gains.

A recent Asian Development Bank report shows instead that the recent rise in Asian asset prices was driven more by capital inflows than domestic liquidity. Investor risk perceptions, however, are often more subjective than empirical, and herd behavior is still clearly the rule rather than the exception. As such, Asia could still be dragged down in tandem with a US slowdown, whether from underlying financial and economic measures the region deserves to be or not.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Special Report: The Shrinking Islands Of The World’s Largest Mangroves Have Triggered A Refugee Crisis

India is drastically losing land in the Sundarbans—a cluster of 54 islands in West Bengal—to climate change.

Recent satellite analysis by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) shows that in the last ten years, 3.7% of the mangrove and other forests in the Sundarbans have disappeared, along with 9,990 hectares of landmass, due to erosion.

The Sundarbans—a vast mangrove delta shared between India’s West Bengal and Bangladesh—is an immensely fragile ecosystem. One of the biggest threats, as it has turned out, is sea-level rise driven by climate change.