By Ruhena Bahar
The attacks on Mumbai are a new blow to an economy already suffering from internal problems and could spell disaster for tourism
Flanked by the luxurious Taj Mahal Palace, the Gateway is a potent symbol of old and new India. But last week these icons of the Mumbai cityscape earned a new horrific significance as terrorists used them to strike a blow at the heart of India's financial capital.
While visceral footage of what local news networks described as 'Mumbai's 9/11' was beamed around the world, India was forced to confront a new terrorism paradigm, after extremists followed al-Qaeda's example by singling out foreign nationals for attack.
The burnt-out Taj Mahal and Trident-Oberoi hotels will provide a daily reminder of the devastation for those who walk by on their way to work in the nearby financial district, where multinational giants Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and HSBC all have offices.
Analysts are worried that the constant reminder of the attacks will heighten investors' concerns at a time when the Indian economy is slowing and foreign capital is being repatriated. The UK is one of the top three investors in India but in 2008 international funds have been flowing the other way as overseas investors have pulled a record $13.5bn out of Indian stocks, contributing to the 56 per cent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.
'This is the last thing India needs,' said businessman Sir Gulam Noon. The British-based multimillionaire, who made his fortune in ready meals, escaped unhurt from the Taj Mahal after spending a frightening night holed up in his suite on the third floor. 'The attacks will temporarily have an impact. It's clearly not good for the economy at a time when the world is in financial crisis.'
That the Taj Mahal and Oberoi play host to the cream of the international business elite is clear given the high-profile executives caught up in the tragedy. Along with Noon, Unilever chief executive Patrick Cescau and his successor, Paul Polman, escaped the Taj Mahal. The hotel's apparent vulnerability is worrying - Gordon Brown and a delegation of 100 British business leaders, including Sir Richard Branson stayed there earlier this year.
The head of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad, Hemant Karkare, was also among those killed. 'The security landscape has changed overnight,' said Jake Stratton of investment risk consultancy Control Risks. 'This will have a serious effect on how foreign companies perceive India as a business destination.'
In the three decades following independence in 1947, India's GDP growth averaged around 1 per cent, but international links have helped its economy to grow by at least 9 per cent for the last three years. This new success transformed Indian companies into powerbrokers on the main stage; notable deals have included Tata's move on British steelmaker Corus and United Breweries' acquisition of Whyte and Mackay.
Last month Indian finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram insisted economic growth would 'bounce back' to 9 per cent in 2009. But the International Monetary Fund is more cautious, predicting the figure will be closer to 6 per cent.
Capital Economics analyst Tehmina Khan goes further in interpreting last week's GDP figures, which showed India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2004, as the start of a 'potentially severe' downturn.
The figures revealed an economy slowing across the board, with manufacturing growth at its lowest level since 2002 and service sector gains dipping below 10 per cent for the first time in three years. Consumer spending was up 5 per cent year on year, but that was 3 percentage points lower than in the second quarter - also the lowest since 2002. 'With banks also becoming more cautious about lending, India's growth prospects look increasingly poor,' said Kahn, who expects growth to slow to 5 per cent next year. 'Both investor and consumer confidence will have been dented by the terrorist attack on Mumbai, with overseas investors unlikely to rush back in.'
In the heat of last week's crisis, the stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets were all closed, although the central bank continued to pump cash into the interbank lending markets. The last time the stock exchange was shut as a result of a terrorist attack was in 1993, when at least 70 people were killed in a series of explosions.
Raj Nambisan, business editor of Mumbai newspaper DNA, said closing the exchanges was the wrong thing to do as it 'sent out the wrong message to investors. I don't think this incident will affect business sentiment in the long-term. Mumbai is the financial centre, it is not India. There are not many economies growing at 7 per cent'.
Mohan Kaul, director-general of the Commonwealth Business Council agrees: 'Fear will not drive business away from India, if anything it will create a bond between the big financial cities who have all had their confidence shaken. The tube in London and the Twin Towers in New York are just as iconic as the Taj hotel. The bond between British and Indian business leaders will be stronger as they sit down to discuss deals.'
However, the timing of the attack, just as the holiday season gets under way, is expected to hurt India's important tourism economy as countries tighten travel policies. Around the country, hotels increased security controls last week. At the Taj Mahal's sister hotel in New Delhi, all visitors had to pass through a perimeter security checkpoint. Anxious staff, many of whom had friends among those hurt in Mumbai, manned metal detectors and searched bags as they sought to restore faith in their ability to protect those within its marbled walls.
Members of India's growing business elite smiled kindly at Westerners as they huddled nervously in the lobby. 'I worked in New York during 9/11 and that didn't stop me going back,' said Nils Thil, who is determined to continue his holiday in India with his wife, Maggie. 'It doesn't matter where you are, terrorism is international now.'
Earlier that day, few holidaymakers had ventured to the capital's tourist sites with chattering local schoolchildren outnumbering foreign visitors at the atmospheric Qutb Minar, the world's tallest brick minaret.
However, London-based Alpesh Patel, of UK investment fund Praefinium, argues India has more to fear from the credit crunch than extremists: 'Nothing has changed. London, New York and Madrid have all suffered major terrorist attacks, Mumbai is no different. The attacks don't affect whether a real estate project gets built or not.'
It is the global crunch and India's home-grown liquidity constraints that have put the brakes on many of the infrastructure projects which are desperately required.
Although a fifth of India's 1.1 billion population is estimated to be living in poverty, the country's rapid economic growth has swelled the ranks of the middle class to an estimated 50 million, providing consumer goods companies with a sea of demand. Each month 10 million people sign up for a mobile phone. Consultancy McKinsey predicts the middle class will grow to 583 million by 2025, comfortably outnumbering the entire US population of around 350 million. 'Nothing will stop smart global businesses pounding on India's door,' added Kaul. 'The truth is India is not opening up as fast as businesses want.'
Brewer SABMiller is looking to convert a nation of tea drinkers, taking on United Breweries' Kingfisher beer with brands such as Indus Pride and Foster's. The beer market is growing at around 15 per cent per year, the fastest rate in Asia, as young 'metros' in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi use what is an expensive drink as a symbol of their new buying prowess.
Jean-Marc Delpon de Vaux, managing director of SABMiller India, claims the monsoon rains have had a greater impact on business than the global financial crisis. 'Credit-dependent sectors such as cars and property are suffering. But India is less dependent on exports - the potential of the internal market is huge. Also the savings ratio is the highest in the world at 40 per cent.'
But last Thursday morning the vast Ambience mall on the outskirts of Delhi was quiet, with assistants idling on their mobile phones. Dust hung in the air at the half-finished centre, which promises 'room for a million smiles'. Jumbo Electronics was offering large discounts with 19in plasma TVs starting at R17,500 (£230). British import Marks & Spencer was also emphasising value in its windows with mannequins showcasing complete men's and women's outfits at R2,090 (£27) and R1,290 (£17).
Like in Britain, Indians' real income growth has been eroded by inflation - food price inflation is at 9 per cent - while confidence has also been dented by rising jobs losses. Tata Motors is reportedly cutting up to 6,000 jobs as, faced by a collapse in demand, it scales back production. 'There has been a sobering of consumption,' said Nambisan. 'The biggest problem is a lack of confidence, as it means people will not spend, which is the engine that has been firing India.'
Broker Investec argues the uncertain economic outlook could hasten necessary reforms, saying: 'The reforms of the early 1990s were triggered by a balance of payments crisis and deteriorating government finances. Perhaps with liquidity tight and the international economy facing intense dislocation, it will be poor economic conditions that push through much needed reform.'
'We will fight back,' added Noon. 'Tough times do not last long but tough people do. Mumbai will come back from this.'
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Mumbai. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Mumbai. Sort by date Show all posts
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Thursday, June 03, 2010
BORDER BRIDE: It's Tough for Border Brides
By M H Ahssan
"She will not be able to pursue her dreams," observes Karachi-based Shirin Imani, about Indian tennis star Sania Mirza's recent marriage to Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik amidst much controversy and media hype.
Heena Rajabally, however, is a little more optimistic, "If I have sailed through, she can too, if she wants her marriage to work. But it won't be easy." Rajabally, 40, who gives tuitions to Grade 11 and 12 students in Mathematics and Economics, was fresh out of college in Mumbai when she got married and came to Pakistan.
"I don't think she should even try [to settle here]; she will be miserable," warns Maliha Bhimjee, a businesswoman living in Karachi from the last 24 years.
The media attention on Sania and Shoaib may be dying down now, but this celebrity cross border wedding revived a lot of memories in Indian women in Karachi - incidentally all of them from Mumbai - who married Pakistani men and have now spent a good many years in the southern port city.
For many young Asian women marriage is usually a time to embrace life-altering change. They not only have to leave their homes, families and friends but also adjust and get accepted in a new family, which could be traditional in its social mores, even deeply conservative. But this post-marriage upheaval takes a whole new meaning for Indian women who move to Pakistan. While love knows no boundaries, cross border marriages come with their own specific challenges.
Many Indian wives living in Pakistan reveal that initially not only had they to fight the fear of stepping on to 'enemy' soil, but that they suddenly found themselves in an alien culture. They sorely missed the independence that was taken for granted in India - for example, dressing up in any way they fancied. In fact, the one thing they still yearn for is the freedom to be "able to walk on the streets" without being stared at or to "sit in public transport".
Shirin Imani, 50, a Montessori teacher, may have married Zulfiqar Imani 25 years ago and moved to Karachi, but she still pines for Mumbai. She will tell you very candidly that she has still "not accepted Karachi with all my heart". She insists that even now there are days when she feels too suffocated in a culture steeped in "narrow-mindedness" and wants to pack her bags and return "home".
In contrast, Farida Lavingia, 46, a Montessori school director, married to a graphic designer for 28 years, doesn't have many complaints. She says Karachi had accepted her despite an obvious "class difference" and "Islamic-ness" to it. Describing it as "a city of life", she finds herself quite well-settled today.
Masuma Lotia, 51, married now for 30 years, too, says she would move back if given the choice, even if it may entail giving up the perks of a "luxurious" life - living in a spacious bungalow in a city that is still not a concrete jungle. She visits Mumbai often to meet her mother, and Lotia feels that Mumbai has become "just too crowded". But it's still a city that she could settle in.
"I would not be able to survive in Mumbai," says Rajabally, adding quickly, "Not because I love Pakistan but because I can't stand the filth, the stickiness and the congestion of the city."
But it was not roses all the way for Rajabally, after she married her first cousin at the age of 19. She really "didn't know what I was in for". Prior to her marriage, she had visited Karachi for a sneak peek at what it would be like to settle down in the port city. "It was the courtship period when each side is on its best behaviour," she says. A young, impressionable girl Rajabally was quickly taken in by the parties and the special attention that was showered on her.
The reality of life in Karachi emerged a few weeks after her marriage. "I wanted to run a few errands and to my horror I found out that I couldn't even get past my house gate without a car and a chauffeur," she recalls. It was then that Rajabally realised how dependent she would become in this city. "It wasn't just that the city was new and that I didn't know my way around, that was a bit scary, but the fact that I wasn't independent anymore. In Mumbai, I was used to taking a train from Bandra and would happily walk anywhere, take cabs, come home late... I had no concept of fear." But all this changed.
She even had to change her way of dressing. "I used to wear skirts, shorts, dresses or whatever I fancied. The sudden restriction on dressing was seemed like a violation of my way of life."
Moreover, Rajabally also sorely missed Mumbai street foods like 'pani puri', 'aalo chola', 'dhokla' and 'pao bhaji' that were a part of her staple diet as a college student.
All these seemingly insignificant things made adjusting to the new city "horribly difficult" for her. Many times during her initial days of marriage she thought she had made the "biggest mistake" of her life. And did she ever think of running away? "Many times over," she reveals with a chuckle. "And I would have, had it not been for my husband!"
Maliha Bhimjee, 46, who has been married now for 24 years, was also overwhelmed by the strongly religious culture in Pakistan. In the early days of her marriage, during the many tiffs she had with her husband over whose country was better, Bhimjee says she never let go of an opportunity to remind him of the fixation that Pakistanis had with everything imported. "I used to say: 'Pakistan imports everything, including wives!'"
She also noticed that there was a lot of gender segregation, which to her was oppressive, having lived in a "cosmopolitan and tolerant city" that she calls a "melting pot of cultures".
But despite all its faults and flaws, Bhimjee discovered that Pakistan was a "land of opportunity" and that "even a little talent got one very far". She observed that it was far easier to make a living here as there was very little competition. Shirin Imani could not agree with Bhimjee more: "Pakistan is full of opportunities," she says.
While the India-Pakistan cricket matches provide these women with the opportunity to vent their patriotic feelings - they all root for the Indian team - it is when relations between the two nations are at a nadir that they feel most vulnerable.
When the Mumbai terror attack happened, Bhimjee was concerned about her aging mother. Her immediate reaction was that this development would have "tremendous repercussions, manifesting immediately in a strained relationship leading to visa problems".
But hostility between Pakistan and India, she believes, is not the real sentiment of people on both sides of the border. "It's the politicians, with their short-term political agendas, that are creating all the mess," she observes. Her counterparts in Pakistan could not agree more.
"She will not be able to pursue her dreams," observes Karachi-based Shirin Imani, about Indian tennis star Sania Mirza's recent marriage to Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik amidst much controversy and media hype. Heena Rajabally, however, is a little more optimistic, "If I have sailed through, she can too, if she wants her marriage to work. But it won't be easy." Rajabally, 40, who gives tuitions to Grade 11 and 12 students in Mathematics and Economics, was fresh out of college in Mumbai when she got married and came to Pakistan.
"I don't think she should even try [to settle here]; she will be miserable," warns Maliha Bhimjee, a businesswoman living in Karachi from the last 24 years.
The media attention on Sania and Shoaib may be dying down now, but this celebrity cross border wedding revived a lot of memories in Indian women in Karachi - incidentally all of them from Mumbai - who married Pakistani men and have now spent a good many years in the southern port city.
For many young Asian women marriage is usually a time to embrace life-altering change. They not only have to leave their homes, families and friends but also adjust and get accepted in a new family, which could be traditional in its social mores, even deeply conservative. But this post-marriage upheaval takes a whole new meaning for Indian women who move to Pakistan. While love knows no boundaries, cross border marriages come with their own specific challenges.
Many Indian wives living in Pakistan reveal that initially not only had they to fight the fear of stepping on to 'enemy' soil, but that they suddenly found themselves in an alien culture. They sorely missed the independence that was taken for granted in India - for example, dressing up in any way they fancied. In fact, the one thing they still yearn for is the freedom to be "able to walk on the streets" without being stared at or to "sit in public transport".
Shirin Imani, 50, a Montessori teacher, may have married Zulfiqar Imani 25 years ago and moved to Karachi, but she still pines for Mumbai. She will tell you very candidly that she has still "not accepted Karachi with all my heart". She insists that even now there are days when she feels too suffocated in a culture steeped in "narrow-mindedness" and wants to pack her bags and return "home".
In contrast, Farida Lavingia, 46, a Montessori school director, married to a graphic designer for 28 years, doesn't have many complaints. She says Karachi had accepted her despite an obvious "class difference" and "Islamic-ness" to it. Describing it as "a city of life", she finds herself quite well-settled today.
Masuma Lotia, 51, married now for 30 years, too, says she would move back if given the choice, even if it may entail giving up the perks of a "luxurious" life - living in a spacious bungalow in a city that is still not a concrete jungle. She visits Mumbai often to meet her mother, and Lotia feels that Mumbai has become "just too crowded". But it's still a city that she could settle in.
"I would not be able to survive in Mumbai," says Rajabally, adding quickly, "Not because I love Pakistan but because I can't stand the filth, the stickiness and the congestion of the city."
But it was not roses all the way for Rajabally, after she married her first cousin at the age of 19. She really "didn't know what I was in for". Prior to her marriage, she had visited Karachi for a sneak peek at what it would be like to settle down in the port city. "It was the courtship period when each side is on its best behaviour," she says. A young, impressionable girl Rajabally was quickly taken in by the parties and the special attention that was showered on her.
The reality of life in Karachi emerged a few weeks after her marriage. "I wanted to run a few errands and to my horror I found out that I couldn't even get past my house gate without a car and a chauffeur," she recalls. It was then that Rajabally realised how dependent she would become in this city. "It wasn't just that the city was new and that I didn't know my way around, that was a bit scary, but the fact that I wasn't independent anymore. In Mumbai, I was used to taking a train from Bandra and would happily walk anywhere, take cabs, come home late... I had no concept of fear." But all this changed.
She even had to change her way of dressing. "I used to wear skirts, shorts, dresses or whatever I fancied. The sudden restriction on dressing was seemed like a violation of my way of life."
Moreover, Rajabally also sorely missed Mumbai street foods like 'pani puri', 'aalo chola', 'dhokla' and 'pao bhaji' that were a part of her staple diet as a college student.
All these seemingly insignificant things made adjusting to the new city "horribly difficult" for her. Many times during her initial days of marriage she thought she had made the "biggest mistake" of her life. And did she ever think of running away? "Many times over," she reveals with a chuckle. "And I would have, had it not been for my husband!"
Maliha Bhimjee, 46, who has been married now for 24 years, was also overwhelmed by the strongly religious culture in Pakistan. In the early days of her marriage, during the many tiffs she had with her husband over whose country was better, Bhimjee says she never let go of an opportunity to remind him of the fixation that Pakistanis had with everything imported. "I used to say: 'Pakistan imports everything, including wives!'"
She also noticed that there was a lot of gender segregation, which to her was oppressive, having lived in a "cosmopolitan and tolerant city" that she calls a "melting pot of cultures".
But despite all its faults and flaws, Bhimjee discovered that Pakistan was a "land of opportunity" and that "even a little talent got one very far". She observed that it was far easier to make a living here as there was very little competition. Shirin Imani could not agree with Bhimjee more: "Pakistan is full of opportunities," she says.
While the India-Pakistan cricket matches provide these women with the opportunity to vent their patriotic feelings - they all root for the Indian team - it is when relations between the two nations are at a nadir that they feel most vulnerable.
When the Mumbai terror attack happened, Bhimjee was concerned about her aging mother. Her immediate reaction was that this development would have "tremendous repercussions, manifesting immediately in a strained relationship leading to visa problems".
But hostility between Pakistan and India, she believes, is not the real sentiment of people on both sides of the border. "It's the politicians, with their short-term political agendas, that are creating all the mess," she observes. Her counterparts in Pakistan could not agree more.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
India counts the cost of global terrorism
By Ruhena Bahar
The attacks on Mumbai are a new blow to an economy already suffering from internal problems and could spell disaster for tourism
Flanked by the luxurious Taj Mahal Palace, the Gateway is a potent symbol of old and new India. But last week these icons of the Mumbai cityscape earned a new horrific significance as terrorists used them to strike a blow at the heart of India's financial capital.
While visceral footage of what local news networks described as 'Mumbai's 9/11' was beamed around the world, India was forced to confront a new terrorism paradigm, after extremists followed al-Qaeda's example by singling out foreign nationals for attack.
The burnt-out Taj Mahal and Trident-Oberoi hotels will provide a daily reminder of the devastation for those who walk by on their way to work in the nearby financial district, where multinational giants Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and HSBC all have offices.
Analysts are worried that the constant reminder of the attacks will heighten investors' concerns at a time when the Indian economy is slowing and foreign capital is being repatriated. The UK is one of the top three investors in India but in 2008 international funds have been flowing the other way as overseas investors have pulled a record $13.5bn out of Indian stocks, contributing to the 56 per cent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.
'This is the last thing India needs,' said businessman Sir Gulam Noon. The British-based multimillionaire, who made his fortune in ready meals, escaped unhurt from the Taj Mahal after spending a frightening night holed up in his suite on the third floor. 'The attacks will temporarily have an impact. It's clearly not good for the economy at a time when the world is in financial crisis.'
That the Taj Mahal and Oberoi play host to the cream of the international business elite is clear given the high-profile executives caught up in the tragedy. Along with Noon, Unilever chief executive Patrick Cescau and his successor, Paul Polman, escaped the Taj Mahal. The hotel's apparent vulnerability is worrying - Gordon Brown and a delegation of 100 British business leaders, including Sir Richard Branson stayed there earlier this year.
The head of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad, Hemant Karkare, was also among those killed. 'The security landscape has changed overnight,' said Jake Stratton of investment risk consultancy Control Risks. 'This will have a serious effect on how foreign companies perceive India as a business destination.'
In the three decades following independence in 1947, India's GDP growth averaged around 1 per cent, but international links have helped its economy to grow by at least 9 per cent for the last three years. This new success transformed Indian companies into powerbrokers on the main stage; notable deals have included Tata's move on British steelmaker Corus and United Breweries' acquisition of Whyte and Mackay.
Last month Indian finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram insisted economic growth would 'bounce back' to 9 per cent in 2009. But the International Monetary Fund is more cautious, predicting the figure will be closer to 6 per cent.
Capital Economics analyst Tehmina Khan goes further in interpreting last week's GDP figures, which showed India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2004, as the start of a 'potentially severe' downturn.
The figures revealed an economy slowing across the board, with manufacturing growth at its lowest level since 2002 and service sector gains dipping below 10 per cent for the first time in three years. Consumer spending was up 5 per cent year on year, but that was 3 percentage points lower than in the second quarter - also the lowest since 2002. 'With banks also becoming more cautious about lending, India's growth prospects look increasingly poor,' said Kahn, who expects growth to slow to 5 per cent next year. 'Both investor and consumer confidence will have been dented by the terrorist attack on Mumbai, with overseas investors unlikely to rush back in.'
In the heat of last week's crisis, the stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets were all closed, although the central bank continued to pump cash into the interbank lending markets. The last time the stock exchange was shut as a result of a terrorist attack was in 1993, when at least 70 people were killed in a series of explosions.
Raj Nambisan, business editor of Mumbai newspaper DNA, said closing the exchanges was the wrong thing to do as it 'sent out the wrong message to investors. I don't think this incident will affect business sentiment in the long-term. Mumbai is the financial centre, it is not India. There are not many economies growing at 7 per cent'.
Mohan Kaul, director-general of the Commonwealth Business Council agrees: 'Fear will not drive business away from India, if anything it will create a bond between the big financial cities who have all had their confidence shaken. The tube in London and the Twin Towers in New York are just as iconic as the Taj hotel. The bond between British and Indian business leaders will be stronger as they sit down to discuss deals.'
However, the timing of the attack, just as the holiday season gets under way, is expected to hurt India's important tourism economy as countries tighten travel policies. Around the country, hotels increased security controls last week. At the Taj Mahal's sister hotel in New Delhi, all visitors had to pass through a perimeter security checkpoint. Anxious staff, many of whom had friends among those hurt in Mumbai, manned metal detectors and searched bags as they sought to restore faith in their ability to protect those within its marbled walls.
Members of India's growing business elite smiled kindly at Westerners as they huddled nervously in the lobby. 'I worked in New York during 9/11 and that didn't stop me going back,' said Nils Thil, who is determined to continue his holiday in India with his wife, Maggie. 'It doesn't matter where you are, terrorism is international now.'
Earlier that day, few holidaymakers had ventured to the capital's tourist sites with chattering local schoolchildren outnumbering foreign visitors at the atmospheric Qutb Minar, the world's tallest brick minaret.
However, London-based Alpesh Patel, of UK investment fund Praefinium, argues India has more to fear from the credit crunch than extremists: 'Nothing has changed. London, New York and Madrid have all suffered major terrorist attacks, Mumbai is no different. The attacks don't affect whether a real estate project gets built or not.'
It is the global crunch and India's home-grown liquidity constraints that have put the brakes on many of the infrastructure projects which are desperately required.
Although a fifth of India's 1.1 billion population is estimated to be living in poverty, the country's rapid economic growth has swelled the ranks of the middle class to an estimated 50 million, providing consumer goods companies with a sea of demand. Each month 10 million people sign up for a mobile phone. Consultancy McKinsey predicts the middle class will grow to 583 million by 2025, comfortably outnumbering the entire US population of around 350 million. 'Nothing will stop smart global businesses pounding on India's door,' added Kaul. 'The truth is India is not opening up as fast as businesses want.'
Brewer SABMiller is looking to convert a nation of tea drinkers, taking on United Breweries' Kingfisher beer with brands such as Indus Pride and Foster's. The beer market is growing at around 15 per cent per year, the fastest rate in Asia, as young 'metros' in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi use what is an expensive drink as a symbol of their new buying prowess.
Jean-Marc Delpon de Vaux, managing director of SABMiller India, claims the monsoon rains have had a greater impact on business than the global financial crisis. 'Credit-dependent sectors such as cars and property are suffering. But India is less dependent on exports - the potential of the internal market is huge. Also the savings ratio is the highest in the world at 40 per cent.'
But last Thursday morning the vast Ambience mall on the outskirts of Delhi was quiet, with assistants idling on their mobile phones. Dust hung in the air at the half-finished centre, which promises 'room for a million smiles'. Jumbo Electronics was offering large discounts with 19in plasma TVs starting at R17,500 (£230). British import Marks & Spencer was also emphasising value in its windows with mannequins showcasing complete men's and women's outfits at R2,090 (£27) and R1,290 (£17).
Like in Britain, Indians' real income growth has been eroded by inflation - food price inflation is at 9 per cent - while confidence has also been dented by rising jobs losses. Tata Motors is reportedly cutting up to 6,000 jobs as, faced by a collapse in demand, it scales back production. 'There has been a sobering of consumption,' said Nambisan. 'The biggest problem is a lack of confidence, as it means people will not spend, which is the engine that has been firing India.'
Broker Investec argues the uncertain economic outlook could hasten necessary reforms, saying: 'The reforms of the early 1990s were triggered by a balance of payments crisis and deteriorating government finances. Perhaps with liquidity tight and the international economy facing intense dislocation, it will be poor economic conditions that push through much needed reform.'
'We will fight back,' added Noon. 'Tough times do not last long but tough people do. Mumbai will come back from this.'
The attacks on Mumbai are a new blow to an economy already suffering from internal problems and could spell disaster for tourism
Flanked by the luxurious Taj Mahal Palace, the Gateway is a potent symbol of old and new India. But last week these icons of the Mumbai cityscape earned a new horrific significance as terrorists used them to strike a blow at the heart of India's financial capital.
While visceral footage of what local news networks described as 'Mumbai's 9/11' was beamed around the world, India was forced to confront a new terrorism paradigm, after extremists followed al-Qaeda's example by singling out foreign nationals for attack.
The burnt-out Taj Mahal and Trident-Oberoi hotels will provide a daily reminder of the devastation for those who walk by on their way to work in the nearby financial district, where multinational giants Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and HSBC all have offices.
Analysts are worried that the constant reminder of the attacks will heighten investors' concerns at a time when the Indian economy is slowing and foreign capital is being repatriated. The UK is one of the top three investors in India but in 2008 international funds have been flowing the other way as overseas investors have pulled a record $13.5bn out of Indian stocks, contributing to the 56 per cent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.
'This is the last thing India needs,' said businessman Sir Gulam Noon. The British-based multimillionaire, who made his fortune in ready meals, escaped unhurt from the Taj Mahal after spending a frightening night holed up in his suite on the third floor. 'The attacks will temporarily have an impact. It's clearly not good for the economy at a time when the world is in financial crisis.'
That the Taj Mahal and Oberoi play host to the cream of the international business elite is clear given the high-profile executives caught up in the tragedy. Along with Noon, Unilever chief executive Patrick Cescau and his successor, Paul Polman, escaped the Taj Mahal. The hotel's apparent vulnerability is worrying - Gordon Brown and a delegation of 100 British business leaders, including Sir Richard Branson stayed there earlier this year.
The head of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad, Hemant Karkare, was also among those killed. 'The security landscape has changed overnight,' said Jake Stratton of investment risk consultancy Control Risks. 'This will have a serious effect on how foreign companies perceive India as a business destination.'
In the three decades following independence in 1947, India's GDP growth averaged around 1 per cent, but international links have helped its economy to grow by at least 9 per cent for the last three years. This new success transformed Indian companies into powerbrokers on the main stage; notable deals have included Tata's move on British steelmaker Corus and United Breweries' acquisition of Whyte and Mackay.
Last month Indian finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram insisted economic growth would 'bounce back' to 9 per cent in 2009. But the International Monetary Fund is more cautious, predicting the figure will be closer to 6 per cent.
Capital Economics analyst Tehmina Khan goes further in interpreting last week's GDP figures, which showed India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2004, as the start of a 'potentially severe' downturn.
The figures revealed an economy slowing across the board, with manufacturing growth at its lowest level since 2002 and service sector gains dipping below 10 per cent for the first time in three years. Consumer spending was up 5 per cent year on year, but that was 3 percentage points lower than in the second quarter - also the lowest since 2002. 'With banks also becoming more cautious about lending, India's growth prospects look increasingly poor,' said Kahn, who expects growth to slow to 5 per cent next year. 'Both investor and consumer confidence will have been dented by the terrorist attack on Mumbai, with overseas investors unlikely to rush back in.'
In the heat of last week's crisis, the stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets were all closed, although the central bank continued to pump cash into the interbank lending markets. The last time the stock exchange was shut as a result of a terrorist attack was in 1993, when at least 70 people were killed in a series of explosions.
Raj Nambisan, business editor of Mumbai newspaper DNA, said closing the exchanges was the wrong thing to do as it 'sent out the wrong message to investors. I don't think this incident will affect business sentiment in the long-term. Mumbai is the financial centre, it is not India. There are not many economies growing at 7 per cent'.
Mohan Kaul, director-general of the Commonwealth Business Council agrees: 'Fear will not drive business away from India, if anything it will create a bond between the big financial cities who have all had their confidence shaken. The tube in London and the Twin Towers in New York are just as iconic as the Taj hotel. The bond between British and Indian business leaders will be stronger as they sit down to discuss deals.'
However, the timing of the attack, just as the holiday season gets under way, is expected to hurt India's important tourism economy as countries tighten travel policies. Around the country, hotels increased security controls last week. At the Taj Mahal's sister hotel in New Delhi, all visitors had to pass through a perimeter security checkpoint. Anxious staff, many of whom had friends among those hurt in Mumbai, manned metal detectors and searched bags as they sought to restore faith in their ability to protect those within its marbled walls.
Members of India's growing business elite smiled kindly at Westerners as they huddled nervously in the lobby. 'I worked in New York during 9/11 and that didn't stop me going back,' said Nils Thil, who is determined to continue his holiday in India with his wife, Maggie. 'It doesn't matter where you are, terrorism is international now.'
Earlier that day, few holidaymakers had ventured to the capital's tourist sites with chattering local schoolchildren outnumbering foreign visitors at the atmospheric Qutb Minar, the world's tallest brick minaret.
However, London-based Alpesh Patel, of UK investment fund Praefinium, argues India has more to fear from the credit crunch than extremists: 'Nothing has changed. London, New York and Madrid have all suffered major terrorist attacks, Mumbai is no different. The attacks don't affect whether a real estate project gets built or not.'
It is the global crunch and India's home-grown liquidity constraints that have put the brakes on many of the infrastructure projects which are desperately required.
Although a fifth of India's 1.1 billion population is estimated to be living in poverty, the country's rapid economic growth has swelled the ranks of the middle class to an estimated 50 million, providing consumer goods companies with a sea of demand. Each month 10 million people sign up for a mobile phone. Consultancy McKinsey predicts the middle class will grow to 583 million by 2025, comfortably outnumbering the entire US population of around 350 million. 'Nothing will stop smart global businesses pounding on India's door,' added Kaul. 'The truth is India is not opening up as fast as businesses want.'
Brewer SABMiller is looking to convert a nation of tea drinkers, taking on United Breweries' Kingfisher beer with brands such as Indus Pride and Foster's. The beer market is growing at around 15 per cent per year, the fastest rate in Asia, as young 'metros' in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi use what is an expensive drink as a symbol of their new buying prowess.
Jean-Marc Delpon de Vaux, managing director of SABMiller India, claims the monsoon rains have had a greater impact on business than the global financial crisis. 'Credit-dependent sectors such as cars and property are suffering. But India is less dependent on exports - the potential of the internal market is huge. Also the savings ratio is the highest in the world at 40 per cent.'
But last Thursday morning the vast Ambience mall on the outskirts of Delhi was quiet, with assistants idling on their mobile phones. Dust hung in the air at the half-finished centre, which promises 'room for a million smiles'. Jumbo Electronics was offering large discounts with 19in plasma TVs starting at R17,500 (£230). British import Marks & Spencer was also emphasising value in its windows with mannequins showcasing complete men's and women's outfits at R2,090 (£27) and R1,290 (£17).
Like in Britain, Indians' real income growth has been eroded by inflation - food price inflation is at 9 per cent - while confidence has also been dented by rising jobs losses. Tata Motors is reportedly cutting up to 6,000 jobs as, faced by a collapse in demand, it scales back production. 'There has been a sobering of consumption,' said Nambisan. 'The biggest problem is a lack of confidence, as it means people will not spend, which is the engine that has been firing India.'
Broker Investec argues the uncertain economic outlook could hasten necessary reforms, saying: 'The reforms of the early 1990s were triggered by a balance of payments crisis and deteriorating government finances. Perhaps with liquidity tight and the international economy facing intense dislocation, it will be poor economic conditions that push through much needed reform.'
'We will fight back,' added Noon. 'Tough times do not last long but tough people do. Mumbai will come back from this.'
India counts the cost of global terrorism
By Ruhena Bahar
The attacks on Mumbai are a new blow to an economy already suffering from internal problems and could spell disaster for tourism
Flanked by the luxurious Taj Mahal Palace, the Gateway is a potent symbol of old and new India. But last week these icons of the Mumbai cityscape earned a new horrific significance as terrorists used them to strike a blow at the heart of India's financial capital.
While visceral footage of what local news networks described as 'Mumbai's 9/11' was beamed around the world, India was forced to confront a new terrorism paradigm, after extremists followed al-Qaeda's example by singling out foreign nationals for attack.
The burnt-out Taj Mahal and Trident-Oberoi hotels will provide a daily reminder of the devastation for those who walk by on their way to work in the nearby financial district, where multinational giants Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and HSBC all have offices.
Analysts are worried that the constant reminder of the attacks will heighten investors' concerns at a time when the Indian economy is slowing and foreign capital is being repatriated. The UK is one of the top three investors in India but in 2008 international funds have been flowing the other way as overseas investors have pulled a record $13.5bn out of Indian stocks, contributing to the 56 per cent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.
'This is the last thing India needs,' said businessman Sir Gulam Noon. The British-based multimillionaire, who made his fortune in ready meals, escaped unhurt from the Taj Mahal after spending a frightening night holed up in his suite on the third floor. 'The attacks will temporarily have an impact. It's clearly not good for the economy at a time when the world is in financial crisis.'
That the Taj Mahal and Oberoi play host to the cream of the international business elite is clear given the high-profile executives caught up in the tragedy. Along with Noon, Unilever chief executive Patrick Cescau and his successor, Paul Polman, escaped the Taj Mahal. The hotel's apparent vulnerability is worrying - Gordon Brown and a delegation of 100 British business leaders, including Sir Richard Branson stayed there earlier this year.
The head of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad, Hemant Karkare, was also among those killed. 'The security landscape has changed overnight,' said Jake Stratton of investment risk consultancy Control Risks. 'This will have a serious effect on how foreign companies perceive India as a business destination.'
In the three decades following independence in 1947, India's GDP growth averaged around 1 per cent, but international links have helped its economy to grow by at least 9 per cent for the last three years. This new success transformed Indian companies into powerbrokers on the main stage; notable deals have included Tata's move on British steelmaker Corus and United Breweries' acquisition of Whyte and Mackay.
Last month Indian finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram insisted economic growth would 'bounce back' to 9 per cent in 2009. But the International Monetary Fund is more cautious, predicting the figure will be closer to 6 per cent.
Capital Economics analyst Tehmina Khan goes further in interpreting last week's GDP figures, which showed India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2004, as the start of a 'potentially severe' downturn.
The figures revealed an economy slowing across the board, with manufacturing growth at its lowest level since 2002 and service sector gains dipping below 10 per cent for the first time in three years. Consumer spending was up 5 per cent year on year, but that was 3 percentage points lower than in the second quarter - also the lowest since 2002. 'With banks also becoming more cautious about lending, India's growth prospects look increasingly poor,' said Kahn, who expects growth to slow to 5 per cent next year. 'Both investor and consumer confidence will have been dented by the terrorist attack on Mumbai, with overseas investors unlikely to rush back in.'
In the heat of last week's crisis, the stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets were all closed, although the central bank continued to pump cash into the interbank lending markets. The last time the stock exchange was shut as a result of a terrorist attack was in 1993, when at least 70 people were killed in a series of explosions.
Raj Nambisan, business editor of Mumbai newspaper DNA, said closing the exchanges was the wrong thing to do as it 'sent out the wrong message to investors. I don't think this incident will affect business sentiment in the long-term. Mumbai is the financial centre, it is not India. There are not many economies growing at 7 per cent'.
Mohan Kaul, director-general of the Commonwealth Business Council agrees: 'Fear will not drive business away from India, if anything it will create a bond between the big financial cities who have all had their confidence shaken. The tube in London and the Twin Towers in New York are just as iconic as the Taj hotel. The bond between British and Indian business leaders will be stronger as they sit down to discuss deals.'
However, the timing of the attack, just as the holiday season gets under way, is expected to hurt India's important tourism economy as countries tighten travel policies. Around the country, hotels increased security controls last week. At the Taj Mahal's sister hotel in New Delhi, all visitors had to pass through a perimeter security checkpoint. Anxious staff, many of whom had friends among those hurt in Mumbai, manned metal detectors and searched bags as they sought to restore faith in their ability to protect those within its marbled walls.
Members of India's growing business elite smiled kindly at Westerners as they huddled nervously in the lobby. 'I worked in New York during 9/11 and that didn't stop me going back,' said Nils Thil, who is determined to continue his holiday in India with his wife, Maggie. 'It doesn't matter where you are, terrorism is international now.'
Earlier that day, few holidaymakers had ventured to the capital's tourist sites with chattering local schoolchildren outnumbering foreign visitors at the atmospheric Qutb Minar, the world's tallest brick minaret.
However, London-based Alpesh Patel, of UK investment fund Praefinium, argues India has more to fear from the credit crunch than extremists: 'Nothing has changed. London, New York and Madrid have all suffered major terrorist attacks, Mumbai is no different. The attacks don't affect whether a real estate project gets built or not.'
It is the global crunch and India's home-grown liquidity constraints that have put the brakes on many of the infrastructure projects which are desperately required.
Although a fifth of India's 1.1 billion population is estimated to be living in poverty, the country's rapid economic growth has swelled the ranks of the middle class to an estimated 50 million, providing consumer goods companies with a sea of demand. Each month 10 million people sign up for a mobile phone. Consultancy McKinsey predicts the middle class will grow to 583 million by 2025, comfortably outnumbering the entire US population of around 350 million. 'Nothing will stop smart global businesses pounding on India's door,' added Kaul. 'The truth is India is not opening up as fast as businesses want.'
Brewer SABMiller is looking to convert a nation of tea drinkers, taking on United Breweries' Kingfisher beer with brands such as Indus Pride and Foster's. The beer market is growing at around 15 per cent per year, the fastest rate in Asia, as young 'metros' in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi use what is an expensive drink as a symbol of their new buying prowess.
Jean-Marc Delpon de Vaux, managing director of SABMiller India, claims the monsoon rains have had a greater impact on business than the global financial crisis. 'Credit-dependent sectors such as cars and property are suffering. But India is less dependent on exports - the potential of the internal market is huge. Also the savings ratio is the highest in the world at 40 per cent.'
But last Thursday morning the vast Ambience mall on the outskirts of Delhi was quiet, with assistants idling on their mobile phones. Dust hung in the air at the half-finished centre, which promises 'room for a million smiles'. Jumbo Electronics was offering large discounts with 19in plasma TVs starting at R17,500 (£230). British import Marks & Spencer was also emphasising value in its windows with mannequins showcasing complete men's and women's outfits at R2,090 (£27) and R1,290 (£17).
Like in Britain, Indians' real income growth has been eroded by inflation - food price inflation is at 9 per cent - while confidence has also been dented by rising jobs losses. Tata Motors is reportedly cutting up to 6,000 jobs as, faced by a collapse in demand, it scales back production. 'There has been a sobering of consumption,' said Nambisan. 'The biggest problem is a lack of confidence, as it means people will not spend, which is the engine that has been firing India.'
Broker Investec argues the uncertain economic outlook could hasten necessary reforms, saying: 'The reforms of the early 1990s were triggered by a balance of payments crisis and deteriorating government finances. Perhaps with liquidity tight and the international economy facing intense dislocation, it will be poor economic conditions that push through much needed reform.'
'We will fight back,' added Noon. 'Tough times do not last long but tough people do. Mumbai will come back from this.'
The attacks on Mumbai are a new blow to an economy already suffering from internal problems and could spell disaster for tourism
Flanked by the luxurious Taj Mahal Palace, the Gateway is a potent symbol of old and new India. But last week these icons of the Mumbai cityscape earned a new horrific significance as terrorists used them to strike a blow at the heart of India's financial capital.
While visceral footage of what local news networks described as 'Mumbai's 9/11' was beamed around the world, India was forced to confront a new terrorism paradigm, after extremists followed al-Qaeda's example by singling out foreign nationals for attack.
The burnt-out Taj Mahal and Trident-Oberoi hotels will provide a daily reminder of the devastation for those who walk by on their way to work in the nearby financial district, where multinational giants Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and HSBC all have offices.
Analysts are worried that the constant reminder of the attacks will heighten investors' concerns at a time when the Indian economy is slowing and foreign capital is being repatriated. The UK is one of the top three investors in India but in 2008 international funds have been flowing the other way as overseas investors have pulled a record $13.5bn out of Indian stocks, contributing to the 56 per cent fall in the main Bombay Stock Exchange index.
'This is the last thing India needs,' said businessman Sir Gulam Noon. The British-based multimillionaire, who made his fortune in ready meals, escaped unhurt from the Taj Mahal after spending a frightening night holed up in his suite on the third floor. 'The attacks will temporarily have an impact. It's clearly not good for the economy at a time when the world is in financial crisis.'
That the Taj Mahal and Oberoi play host to the cream of the international business elite is clear given the high-profile executives caught up in the tragedy. Along with Noon, Unilever chief executive Patrick Cescau and his successor, Paul Polman, escaped the Taj Mahal. The hotel's apparent vulnerability is worrying - Gordon Brown and a delegation of 100 British business leaders, including Sir Richard Branson stayed there earlier this year.
The head of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad, Hemant Karkare, was also among those killed. 'The security landscape has changed overnight,' said Jake Stratton of investment risk consultancy Control Risks. 'This will have a serious effect on how foreign companies perceive India as a business destination.'
In the three decades following independence in 1947, India's GDP growth averaged around 1 per cent, but international links have helped its economy to grow by at least 9 per cent for the last three years. This new success transformed Indian companies into powerbrokers on the main stage; notable deals have included Tata's move on British steelmaker Corus and United Breweries' acquisition of Whyte and Mackay.
Last month Indian finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram insisted economic growth would 'bounce back' to 9 per cent in 2009. But the International Monetary Fund is more cautious, predicting the figure will be closer to 6 per cent.
Capital Economics analyst Tehmina Khan goes further in interpreting last week's GDP figures, which showed India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace since 2004, as the start of a 'potentially severe' downturn.
The figures revealed an economy slowing across the board, with manufacturing growth at its lowest level since 2002 and service sector gains dipping below 10 per cent for the first time in three years. Consumer spending was up 5 per cent year on year, but that was 3 percentage points lower than in the second quarter - also the lowest since 2002. 'With banks also becoming more cautious about lending, India's growth prospects look increasingly poor,' said Kahn, who expects growth to slow to 5 per cent next year. 'Both investor and consumer confidence will have been dented by the terrorist attack on Mumbai, with overseas investors unlikely to rush back in.'
In the heat of last week's crisis, the stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets were all closed, although the central bank continued to pump cash into the interbank lending markets. The last time the stock exchange was shut as a result of a terrorist attack was in 1993, when at least 70 people were killed in a series of explosions.
Raj Nambisan, business editor of Mumbai newspaper DNA, said closing the exchanges was the wrong thing to do as it 'sent out the wrong message to investors. I don't think this incident will affect business sentiment in the long-term. Mumbai is the financial centre, it is not India. There are not many economies growing at 7 per cent'.
Mohan Kaul, director-general of the Commonwealth Business Council agrees: 'Fear will not drive business away from India, if anything it will create a bond between the big financial cities who have all had their confidence shaken. The tube in London and the Twin Towers in New York are just as iconic as the Taj hotel. The bond between British and Indian business leaders will be stronger as they sit down to discuss deals.'
However, the timing of the attack, just as the holiday season gets under way, is expected to hurt India's important tourism economy as countries tighten travel policies. Around the country, hotels increased security controls last week. At the Taj Mahal's sister hotel in New Delhi, all visitors had to pass through a perimeter security checkpoint. Anxious staff, many of whom had friends among those hurt in Mumbai, manned metal detectors and searched bags as they sought to restore faith in their ability to protect those within its marbled walls.
Members of India's growing business elite smiled kindly at Westerners as they huddled nervously in the lobby. 'I worked in New York during 9/11 and that didn't stop me going back,' said Nils Thil, who is determined to continue his holiday in India with his wife, Maggie. 'It doesn't matter where you are, terrorism is international now.'
Earlier that day, few holidaymakers had ventured to the capital's tourist sites with chattering local schoolchildren outnumbering foreign visitors at the atmospheric Qutb Minar, the world's tallest brick minaret.
However, London-based Alpesh Patel, of UK investment fund Praefinium, argues India has more to fear from the credit crunch than extremists: 'Nothing has changed. London, New York and Madrid have all suffered major terrorist attacks, Mumbai is no different. The attacks don't affect whether a real estate project gets built or not.'
It is the global crunch and India's home-grown liquidity constraints that have put the brakes on many of the infrastructure projects which are desperately required.
Although a fifth of India's 1.1 billion population is estimated to be living in poverty, the country's rapid economic growth has swelled the ranks of the middle class to an estimated 50 million, providing consumer goods companies with a sea of demand. Each month 10 million people sign up for a mobile phone. Consultancy McKinsey predicts the middle class will grow to 583 million by 2025, comfortably outnumbering the entire US population of around 350 million. 'Nothing will stop smart global businesses pounding on India's door,' added Kaul. 'The truth is India is not opening up as fast as businesses want.'
Brewer SABMiller is looking to convert a nation of tea drinkers, taking on United Breweries' Kingfisher beer with brands such as Indus Pride and Foster's. The beer market is growing at around 15 per cent per year, the fastest rate in Asia, as young 'metros' in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi use what is an expensive drink as a symbol of their new buying prowess.
Jean-Marc Delpon de Vaux, managing director of SABMiller India, claims the monsoon rains have had a greater impact on business than the global financial crisis. 'Credit-dependent sectors such as cars and property are suffering. But India is less dependent on exports - the potential of the internal market is huge. Also the savings ratio is the highest in the world at 40 per cent.'
But last Thursday morning the vast Ambience mall on the outskirts of Delhi was quiet, with assistants idling on their mobile phones. Dust hung in the air at the half-finished centre, which promises 'room for a million smiles'. Jumbo Electronics was offering large discounts with 19in plasma TVs starting at R17,500 (£230). British import Marks & Spencer was also emphasising value in its windows with mannequins showcasing complete men's and women's outfits at R2,090 (£27) and R1,290 (£17).
Like in Britain, Indians' real income growth has been eroded by inflation - food price inflation is at 9 per cent - while confidence has also been dented by rising jobs losses. Tata Motors is reportedly cutting up to 6,000 jobs as, faced by a collapse in demand, it scales back production. 'There has been a sobering of consumption,' said Nambisan. 'The biggest problem is a lack of confidence, as it means people will not spend, which is the engine that has been firing India.'
Broker Investec argues the uncertain economic outlook could hasten necessary reforms, saying: 'The reforms of the early 1990s were triggered by a balance of payments crisis and deteriorating government finances. Perhaps with liquidity tight and the international economy facing intense dislocation, it will be poor economic conditions that push through much needed reform.'
'We will fight back,' added Noon. 'Tough times do not last long but tough people do. Mumbai will come back from this.'
Friday, November 28, 2008
Mumbai terror attacks
By M H Ahssan
Mumbai has experienced terror attacks earlier. In March 1993, simultaneous attacks on a number of targets resulted in over 270 fatal casualties. Their origin was traced to Dawood Ibrahim and his associates who were based in Karachi. The multiple bomb blasts on Mumbai trains killed 200 people in July 2005.
Once again the investigations led to a link between those who carried out the blasts and Pakistan. The present batch of terrorists is reported to have landed close to the Gateway of India in rubber dinghies. The equipment, training and sophistication of their planning and the identity of a suspect arrested in Chowpatty would tend to indicate a Pakistani link.
Unlike in previous attacks when the casualties were all Indians, this time there are foreigners among the dead. There are also reports that the terrorists were particularly interested in US, UK and Israeli passport holders.
While an organisation called 'Deccan Mujahideen' has claimed responsibility the Indian agencies do not consider this a genuine claim; they feel that this is a Pakistani jihadi operation.
Since a few terrorists have been captured, their identities would surely be revealed in the next few days. The Mumbai police believe that the sophistication and skill of the terrorists would tend to indicate that they were not locals. It appears that a mother ship had dropped dinghies close to Mumbai. The Indian Navy has intercepted a vessel from Pakistan believed to have been the mother ship. Though in the 1993 operations the explosives came via sea the people who placed the explosives were from Mumbai. In this case, the terrorists landed on the Mumbai waterfront. Though sea-based terrorist attacks have been talked about, presumably those in charge had not paid adequate attention to it.
The counterterrorism efforts in India are fragmented among the state and central agencies. Efforts to have an integrated central agency to deal with terrorism have so far been thwarted by political parties who tend to place their own parochial interests higher than national interests. In the US, where they had a number of federal agencies dealing with different aspects of intelligence in the wake of 9/11 they found that there was inadequate coordination among them.
Hence, there was a failure to assess the 9/11 threat though there were bits of information. Subsequently, a new post of director of national intelligence was created to supervise and coordinate all intelligence agencies. In the biggest bureaucratic reshuffle in US history the department of homeland security was also created with bipartisan support. The terrorist threat India faces is far more severe than the one faced by the US separated from Europe and Asia by two oceans and having friendly neighbours in Mexico and Canada.
India has three unfriendly porous borders and nearly three decades of terrorism and proxy war directed against it. Yet our political parties are not sensitive enough to appreciate the need for intelligence coordination and an integrated internal security structure. Recently the Pakistani government stripped the ISI of its responsibility for political intelligence. Pakistan had to seek a multi-billion-dollar loan package from the IMF and the loan has been sanctioned with conditionalities.
Many in Pakistan have openly resented president-elect Barack Obama's friendliness towards India. The recent friendly remarks of Pakistani president Asif Zardari towards India have also not found approval among sections of the Pakistani establishment. A section of the Pakistani establishment and the ISI have been attempting to bleed India through a thousand cuts.
The ISI was known to create problems for its own government to advance its interests. Therefore, the possibility of rogue elements in ISI and jihadi elements in Pakistan conspiring to create tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad cannot be ruled out. This would keep ISI's pre-eminence in Pakistan's India policy and help it to argue with Washington that increased tension with India rules out Islamabad playing a more effective role on its western front.
The terror attack on Mumbai was aimed at hitting tourist traffic and its commercial relations with the US and other developed countries. It was also intended to club India with the Crusaders (the US and the West) and Zionists (the Israelis). This may look like an act of desperation by the jihadis and their friends in the ISI and Pakistani establishment. In a sense, the jihadis may be attempting to bring the clash of civilisations thesis to its denouement. One should not forget the original 'clash of civilisations' thesis was the two-nation theory which the Indian Muslims repudiated by choosing to stay on in India.
The present acts of terrorism is an attempt by the advocates of this thesis to create tension between the two communities in this country. Till now the US and other western nations were not adequately sensitive to terrorism perpetrated against India. This was partly because the casualties were all Indians. This time it is different.
While all evidence points to the involvement of Pakistani elements in the terror acts, New Delhi should at the same time be careful not to walk into the trap of creating major Indo-Pakistan tensions as a new president takes over in Washington and with India facing a general election in the next few months. The country expects the two national parties to get together to formulate a joint strategy to thwart the jihadi attempt to create a 'clash of civilisations' in this country.
Mumbai has experienced terror attacks earlier. In March 1993, simultaneous attacks on a number of targets resulted in over 270 fatal casualties. Their origin was traced to Dawood Ibrahim and his associates who were based in Karachi. The multiple bomb blasts on Mumbai trains killed 200 people in July 2005.
Once again the investigations led to a link between those who carried out the blasts and Pakistan. The present batch of terrorists is reported to have landed close to the Gateway of India in rubber dinghies. The equipment, training and sophistication of their planning and the identity of a suspect arrested in Chowpatty would tend to indicate a Pakistani link.
Unlike in previous attacks when the casualties were all Indians, this time there are foreigners among the dead. There are also reports that the terrorists were particularly interested in US, UK and Israeli passport holders.
While an organisation called 'Deccan Mujahideen' has claimed responsibility the Indian agencies do not consider this a genuine claim; they feel that this is a Pakistani jihadi operation.
Since a few terrorists have been captured, their identities would surely be revealed in the next few days. The Mumbai police believe that the sophistication and skill of the terrorists would tend to indicate that they were not locals. It appears that a mother ship had dropped dinghies close to Mumbai. The Indian Navy has intercepted a vessel from Pakistan believed to have been the mother ship. Though in the 1993 operations the explosives came via sea the people who placed the explosives were from Mumbai. In this case, the terrorists landed on the Mumbai waterfront. Though sea-based terrorist attacks have been talked about, presumably those in charge had not paid adequate attention to it.
The counterterrorism efforts in India are fragmented among the state and central agencies. Efforts to have an integrated central agency to deal with terrorism have so far been thwarted by political parties who tend to place their own parochial interests higher than national interests. In the US, where they had a number of federal agencies dealing with different aspects of intelligence in the wake of 9/11 they found that there was inadequate coordination among them.
Hence, there was a failure to assess the 9/11 threat though there were bits of information. Subsequently, a new post of director of national intelligence was created to supervise and coordinate all intelligence agencies. In the biggest bureaucratic reshuffle in US history the department of homeland security was also created with bipartisan support. The terrorist threat India faces is far more severe than the one faced by the US separated from Europe and Asia by two oceans and having friendly neighbours in Mexico and Canada.
India has three unfriendly porous borders and nearly three decades of terrorism and proxy war directed against it. Yet our political parties are not sensitive enough to appreciate the need for intelligence coordination and an integrated internal security structure. Recently the Pakistani government stripped the ISI of its responsibility for political intelligence. Pakistan had to seek a multi-billion-dollar loan package from the IMF and the loan has been sanctioned with conditionalities.
Many in Pakistan have openly resented president-elect Barack Obama's friendliness towards India. The recent friendly remarks of Pakistani president Asif Zardari towards India have also not found approval among sections of the Pakistani establishment. A section of the Pakistani establishment and the ISI have been attempting to bleed India through a thousand cuts.
The ISI was known to create problems for its own government to advance its interests. Therefore, the possibility of rogue elements in ISI and jihadi elements in Pakistan conspiring to create tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad cannot be ruled out. This would keep ISI's pre-eminence in Pakistan's India policy and help it to argue with Washington that increased tension with India rules out Islamabad playing a more effective role on its western front.
The terror attack on Mumbai was aimed at hitting tourist traffic and its commercial relations with the US and other developed countries. It was also intended to club India with the Crusaders (the US and the West) and Zionists (the Israelis). This may look like an act of desperation by the jihadis and their friends in the ISI and Pakistani establishment. In a sense, the jihadis may be attempting to bring the clash of civilisations thesis to its denouement. One should not forget the original 'clash of civilisations' thesis was the two-nation theory which the Indian Muslims repudiated by choosing to stay on in India.
The present acts of terrorism is an attempt by the advocates of this thesis to create tension between the two communities in this country. Till now the US and other western nations were not adequately sensitive to terrorism perpetrated against India. This was partly because the casualties were all Indians. This time it is different.
While all evidence points to the involvement of Pakistani elements in the terror acts, New Delhi should at the same time be careful not to walk into the trap of creating major Indo-Pakistan tensions as a new president takes over in Washington and with India facing a general election in the next few months. The country expects the two national parties to get together to formulate a joint strategy to thwart the jihadi attempt to create a 'clash of civilisations' in this country.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
The Crooked Timber Of Humanity: Mumbai’s Real Estate Biz
A CLOSE LOOK Mumbai has the most dysfunctional real estate market in the world. Here we see the crooked timber of humanity - as Kant put it - in all its terrible glory. Originally built for six lakh people, it now houses 18 million. That’s almost the population of the continent of Australia. All cramped into a few square miles of island surrounded by the sea.
There are over 130,000 apartments in inventory. At an average of a thousand square feet per unit, - and priced at even a conservative Rs 20,000 per square foot, - that’s over Rs 250,000 crore of unsold inventory. That’s almost 3 percent of India’s GDP. Yet prices keep rising - defying every law of common sense - let alone economics. And this is just residential property we’re talking about, not commercial.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Focus: Why Mumbai Property Is A Sell Rather Than A Buy?
By Shakeel Khan | INN Live
Why are property prices not falling despite strong evidence that few people are buying? According to a recent INN Live report, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region alone is sitting on 58 months’ inventory, with around 1,40,000 housing units (of an average 1,000 sq ft) remaining unsold.
If few people are buying, and no one is also selling, prices can indeed stay aloft – though these prices are fictitious when no transaction is taking place. But the more important question is this: when property prices are so high, why is no one selling?
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Special Report: How Indian Firms Use Dirty Tricks To Deny Sanitation Workers Rights?
It is no secret that labour laws in India are routinely violated. But if labourers with permanent jobs have a hard time ensuring their rights, those working as contract labour are at a double disadvantage.
For the thousands of conservancy or sanitation workers in India who are illegally employed by government bodies through private contractors, the fight for basic rights is an endless cycle of filing cases in industrial courts.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Rice on Indian Mission to Steady Nerves
By M H Ahssan
United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the Indian capital on Wednesday to try and soothe nerves frayed by last week's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, but is likely to face an uphill task in defusing mounting suspicion and tension between India and Pakistan.
Rice is due to meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other top officials, and arrives as media reports surface claiming US and India's own intelligence agencies had months before warned the government of possible waterborne terrorist attacks on Mumbai.
Rice will use the visit to pressure the two US allies - who have fought three wars since their 1947 independence from British rule - to cooperate in wiping out terrorism, a senior US State Department official was quoted as saying by Agence France-Presse.
"I want to consult with the Indian government on what we can do to help," Rice said in Brussels, Belgium, before leaving for India. "Pakistan needs to cooperate fully and transparently ... I am pleased to see the statements from Pakistan that they intend to do so."
Many Indian policymakers have adopted a hardened stance against Pakistan in the belief its state agencies, such as the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI), were behind the attacks, which killed 171 people, including 28 foreign nationals.
Conservative commentators have unleashed what is fast becoming a media campaign to demand India take serious punitive action against Pakistan for the attacks - to the point of asking for strikes on terrorist training camps Indian spy agencies claim exist across the border.
Liberals, who prefer a diplomatic rather than military approach, have been sharply critical of the conservatives. But it is not clear that they can persuade the Indian government to take a reasoned and sober approach.
''Nobody is talking of military action against Pakistan ... what will be done, time will show,'' India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukerjee said on Tuesday, while speaking at an India-Arab forum.
"If the already fragile India-Pakistan process breaks down, diplomatic and trade relations are frozen, and a conflict breaks out, the consequences will be grim," said Kamal Mitra Chenoy, a professor in the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
"Any conflict that breaks out today between India and Pakistan has the potential, the deadly potential, to escalate to the nuclear level and cause unspeakable destruction."
Under pressure to take a tough stand against Pakistan, New Delhi has summoned Pakistan's ambassador and issued a formal protest. He was told the attacks were carried out by "elements from Pakistan" and "the government expects that strong action would be taken against those elements".
According to the official spokesperson of India's Ministry of External Affairs, the diplomat was told that "Pakistan's actions need to match the sentiments expressed by its leadership, that it wishes to have a qualitatively new relationship with India''.
Many of the hawks who advocate a hardline approach are livid at the attacks, which they see as an insult to, or a slighting of, India. They describe it as India's own "September 11", referring to the terror attacks on the United States in 2001.
They are particularly incensed that gunmen carrying sophisticated arms and explosives could land boats in Mumbai unhindered and proceed to strike at nine or more sites, including a crowded railway station and two luxury hotels.
Like protesters in Mumbai, who blame India's political leaders for their incompetence and indifference to security issues, the hardliners too want the armed forces and security agencies to have a prominent role in deciding how to respond to acts of terrorism.
Some of them focus on the alleged involvement of the jihadi Pakistani extremist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), and by implication, Pakistani state agencies, in the attacks.
India has bluntly told Pakistan that it must hand over to it 20 "most wanted fugitives". The list includes Hafiz Mohammed Said, the founder of the LET, and Yusuf Muzammil, a senior LET operative who reportedly masterminded the attacks.
India's police agencies, which are investigating the attacks and following leads emerging from the interrogation of arrested terrorist Mohammed Ajmal Amir Iman (alias Qasab) in Mumbai, claim to have discovered a conspiracy - at the center of which is LET.
Indian authorities said Tuesday that ex-Pakistani army officers trained the gunmen behind the attacks - some for up to 18 months - and the group set out by boat from the Pakistani port of Karachi, reported the Associated Press.
Qasab told police his group trained for about six months in LET camps in Pakistan, learning close-combat techniques, hostage-taking, handling of explosives and satellite navigation, according to AP.
A satellite phone reportedly found aboard a ship that brought the attackers to Mumbai's shores was used to communicate several times with senior LET members, reported the Los Angeles Times. The phone records reportedly lead back to Yusuf Muzammil.
The United State's National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell, while not mentioning the LET by name, clearly indicated US suspicions on Tuesday by saying the Mumbai attacks were carried out by the same group that bombed trains in the Indian capital in 2006, an attack the Indian government has attributed to the LET.
But Pakistani leaders say no one has offered them any specific evidence of the groups involvement, and that solid, hard, incontrovertible evidence, which can withstand critical scrutiny and on the basis of which the attackers and their co-conspirators can be convicted, is in short supply.
The leads pointing to LET's involvement must be fully established if the international community is to be convinced and Pakistan's cooperation is to be secured. Although in Qasab the Indian authorities have for the first time caught an attacker red-handed who can provide invaluable information, evidence and clues for further investigation.
LET was created and trained by Pakistan's ISI, yet is banned in many countries, including the US. The armed wing of the extremist Pakistan-based religious organization Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-irshad, LET is alleged to have conducted numerous operations against Indian troops and civilian targets in Jammu and Kashmir since 1993.
It was blamed by New Delhi for a terrorist attack on India's parliament house in December 2001, which led to a 10 month-long eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between the two countries, with a million troops amassed at the border.
"Many of the hawks' premises are mistaken," argued political scientist Zoya Hasan. "For instance, it is simply wrong to use the 9/11 analogy for the Mumbai attacks. The two are different in context, scale and impact."
Adds Hasan said that the Twin Towers casualties were 16 times higher than in Mumbai and for the first time in 60 years exposed the vulnerability of the American homeland, where as Indians have long recognized their vulnerability. "India has suffered scores of attacks in the last two decades and 9/11 changed the way the US looks at the world, including Islam. Mumbai probably won't alter India's outlook."
Similarly, the assumption that LET's involvement necessarily implicates the ISI or the Pakistan army, or proves the complicity of the civilian government, headed by President Asif Ali Zardari, is questioned by many former intelligence officials in India.
One of them told Inter Press Service on the condition of anonymity that "it would be wrong to assume that LET enjoys no autonomy and the ISI still fully controls it. Making a direct equation between LET, the ISI, the Pakistan army and the elected civilian government, and accusing them of having colluded to engineer the attacks, would be way off the mark''.
This official's assessment is that Zardari's government would not want to undermine the peace process with India and risk a costly conflict at a time when Pakistan is in dire economic strife and volatile situation due to a growing collapse of governance and rising ethnic strife. Struggles seen in the current Mohajir-Pashtun clashes in Karachi, and the creeping Taliban takeover of the North-Western Frontier Province.
The conspiracy theory also contrasts with Zardari's recent pledge to not use nuclear weapons first against India. He has also often said Pakistan can ill-afford to unleash the very forces of extremism on India which have caused such havoc on its own territory.
After all, Pakistan is also a victim of extremists, who claimed his wife Benazir Bhutto's life, carried out the September 20 attack on the Marriott hotel in Islamabad, and earlier made two major attempts on former president General Pervez Musharraf's life.
On Tuesday, Zardari told the Financial Times that provocation by extremist "non-state actors" posed the danger of a return to war between India and Pakistan, and rhetorically asked: "Even if the militants are linked to LET, who do you think we are fighting?"
"Many will question his claim that Pakistan is seriously fighting LET or its parent organization, Harkat-ul-Dawa (HUD)," said Achin Vanaik, professor of international relations and global politics at Delhi University. "Pakistan imposed a formal ban on the group, but it reappeared under a different name. Its leader, Hafiz Mohammed Said, is a free man. And HUD holds public meetings, according to many credible reports."
Nevertheless, Vanaik added, "India should take Pakistan's offer to help investigate the attacks. Although it has reneged on its earlier offer to send the ISI director-general to India, it has still promised to send a senior agency official. India should respond positively to this and try to build alliances with the saner elements in Pakistan who recognize the dangers of fomenting jihadi terrorism."
The alternative would be to drift towards conflict, insecurity and war. If India insists on its demand about turning in fugitives living in Pakistan, there is a danger that Pakistan will not comply.
"This seriously risks an armed conflict," said Vanaik. "Neither side can win, and is fraught with grave nuclear danger. The only side to gain from an India-Pakistan conflict will be extremists and terrorists - besides the US through a heightened mediatory role. This would only confirm the view that the attacks are a gift from the most criminalized orders of the 'global right' to its most powerful echelons."
However, there is an honorable and peaceful way out. This is to take the Mumbai case to the United Nations Security Council under Resolution 1373, which requires all states to "refrain from providing any form of support to entities or persons involved in terrorist acts", give "early warning to other states" and "deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts ..." all on pain of punitive measures.
This multilateral approach, analysts say, would obviate overbearing US influence and must be explored. But it is not clear that Indian leaders can muster the will to take it.
United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the Indian capital on Wednesday to try and soothe nerves frayed by last week's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, but is likely to face an uphill task in defusing mounting suspicion and tension between India and Pakistan.
Rice is due to meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other top officials, and arrives as media reports surface claiming US and India's own intelligence agencies had months before warned the government of possible waterborne terrorist attacks on Mumbai.
Rice will use the visit to pressure the two US allies - who have fought three wars since their 1947 independence from British rule - to cooperate in wiping out terrorism, a senior US State Department official was quoted as saying by Agence France-Presse.
"I want to consult with the Indian government on what we can do to help," Rice said in Brussels, Belgium, before leaving for India. "Pakistan needs to cooperate fully and transparently ... I am pleased to see the statements from Pakistan that they intend to do so."
Many Indian policymakers have adopted a hardened stance against Pakistan in the belief its state agencies, such as the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI), were behind the attacks, which killed 171 people, including 28 foreign nationals.
Conservative commentators have unleashed what is fast becoming a media campaign to demand India take serious punitive action against Pakistan for the attacks - to the point of asking for strikes on terrorist training camps Indian spy agencies claim exist across the border.
Liberals, who prefer a diplomatic rather than military approach, have been sharply critical of the conservatives. But it is not clear that they can persuade the Indian government to take a reasoned and sober approach.
''Nobody is talking of military action against Pakistan ... what will be done, time will show,'' India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukerjee said on Tuesday, while speaking at an India-Arab forum.
"If the already fragile India-Pakistan process breaks down, diplomatic and trade relations are frozen, and a conflict breaks out, the consequences will be grim," said Kamal Mitra Chenoy, a professor in the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
"Any conflict that breaks out today between India and Pakistan has the potential, the deadly potential, to escalate to the nuclear level and cause unspeakable destruction."
Under pressure to take a tough stand against Pakistan, New Delhi has summoned Pakistan's ambassador and issued a formal protest. He was told the attacks were carried out by "elements from Pakistan" and "the government expects that strong action would be taken against those elements".
According to the official spokesperson of India's Ministry of External Affairs, the diplomat was told that "Pakistan's actions need to match the sentiments expressed by its leadership, that it wishes to have a qualitatively new relationship with India''.
Many of the hawks who advocate a hardline approach are livid at the attacks, which they see as an insult to, or a slighting of, India. They describe it as India's own "September 11", referring to the terror attacks on the United States in 2001.
They are particularly incensed that gunmen carrying sophisticated arms and explosives could land boats in Mumbai unhindered and proceed to strike at nine or more sites, including a crowded railway station and two luxury hotels.
Like protesters in Mumbai, who blame India's political leaders for their incompetence and indifference to security issues, the hardliners too want the armed forces and security agencies to have a prominent role in deciding how to respond to acts of terrorism.
Some of them focus on the alleged involvement of the jihadi Pakistani extremist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), and by implication, Pakistani state agencies, in the attacks.
India has bluntly told Pakistan that it must hand over to it 20 "most wanted fugitives". The list includes Hafiz Mohammed Said, the founder of the LET, and Yusuf Muzammil, a senior LET operative who reportedly masterminded the attacks.
India's police agencies, which are investigating the attacks and following leads emerging from the interrogation of arrested terrorist Mohammed Ajmal Amir Iman (alias Qasab) in Mumbai, claim to have discovered a conspiracy - at the center of which is LET.
Indian authorities said Tuesday that ex-Pakistani army officers trained the gunmen behind the attacks - some for up to 18 months - and the group set out by boat from the Pakistani port of Karachi, reported the Associated Press.
Qasab told police his group trained for about six months in LET camps in Pakistan, learning close-combat techniques, hostage-taking, handling of explosives and satellite navigation, according to AP.
A satellite phone reportedly found aboard a ship that brought the attackers to Mumbai's shores was used to communicate several times with senior LET members, reported the Los Angeles Times. The phone records reportedly lead back to Yusuf Muzammil.
The United State's National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell, while not mentioning the LET by name, clearly indicated US suspicions on Tuesday by saying the Mumbai attacks were carried out by the same group that bombed trains in the Indian capital in 2006, an attack the Indian government has attributed to the LET.
But Pakistani leaders say no one has offered them any specific evidence of the groups involvement, and that solid, hard, incontrovertible evidence, which can withstand critical scrutiny and on the basis of which the attackers and their co-conspirators can be convicted, is in short supply.
The leads pointing to LET's involvement must be fully established if the international community is to be convinced and Pakistan's cooperation is to be secured. Although in Qasab the Indian authorities have for the first time caught an attacker red-handed who can provide invaluable information, evidence and clues for further investigation.
LET was created and trained by Pakistan's ISI, yet is banned in many countries, including the US. The armed wing of the extremist Pakistan-based religious organization Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-irshad, LET is alleged to have conducted numerous operations against Indian troops and civilian targets in Jammu and Kashmir since 1993.
It was blamed by New Delhi for a terrorist attack on India's parliament house in December 2001, which led to a 10 month-long eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between the two countries, with a million troops amassed at the border.
"Many of the hawks' premises are mistaken," argued political scientist Zoya Hasan. "For instance, it is simply wrong to use the 9/11 analogy for the Mumbai attacks. The two are different in context, scale and impact."
Adds Hasan said that the Twin Towers casualties were 16 times higher than in Mumbai and for the first time in 60 years exposed the vulnerability of the American homeland, where as Indians have long recognized their vulnerability. "India has suffered scores of attacks in the last two decades and 9/11 changed the way the US looks at the world, including Islam. Mumbai probably won't alter India's outlook."
Similarly, the assumption that LET's involvement necessarily implicates the ISI or the Pakistan army, or proves the complicity of the civilian government, headed by President Asif Ali Zardari, is questioned by many former intelligence officials in India.
One of them told Inter Press Service on the condition of anonymity that "it would be wrong to assume that LET enjoys no autonomy and the ISI still fully controls it. Making a direct equation between LET, the ISI, the Pakistan army and the elected civilian government, and accusing them of having colluded to engineer the attacks, would be way off the mark''.
This official's assessment is that Zardari's government would not want to undermine the peace process with India and risk a costly conflict at a time when Pakistan is in dire economic strife and volatile situation due to a growing collapse of governance and rising ethnic strife. Struggles seen in the current Mohajir-Pashtun clashes in Karachi, and the creeping Taliban takeover of the North-Western Frontier Province.
The conspiracy theory also contrasts with Zardari's recent pledge to not use nuclear weapons first against India. He has also often said Pakistan can ill-afford to unleash the very forces of extremism on India which have caused such havoc on its own territory.
After all, Pakistan is also a victim of extremists, who claimed his wife Benazir Bhutto's life, carried out the September 20 attack on the Marriott hotel in Islamabad, and earlier made two major attempts on former president General Pervez Musharraf's life.
On Tuesday, Zardari told the Financial Times that provocation by extremist "non-state actors" posed the danger of a return to war between India and Pakistan, and rhetorically asked: "Even if the militants are linked to LET, who do you think we are fighting?"
"Many will question his claim that Pakistan is seriously fighting LET or its parent organization, Harkat-ul-Dawa (HUD)," said Achin Vanaik, professor of international relations and global politics at Delhi University. "Pakistan imposed a formal ban on the group, but it reappeared under a different name. Its leader, Hafiz Mohammed Said, is a free man. And HUD holds public meetings, according to many credible reports."
Nevertheless, Vanaik added, "India should take Pakistan's offer to help investigate the attacks. Although it has reneged on its earlier offer to send the ISI director-general to India, it has still promised to send a senior agency official. India should respond positively to this and try to build alliances with the saner elements in Pakistan who recognize the dangers of fomenting jihadi terrorism."
The alternative would be to drift towards conflict, insecurity and war. If India insists on its demand about turning in fugitives living in Pakistan, there is a danger that Pakistan will not comply.
"This seriously risks an armed conflict," said Vanaik. "Neither side can win, and is fraught with grave nuclear danger. The only side to gain from an India-Pakistan conflict will be extremists and terrorists - besides the US through a heightened mediatory role. This would only confirm the view that the attacks are a gift from the most criminalized orders of the 'global right' to its most powerful echelons."
However, there is an honorable and peaceful way out. This is to take the Mumbai case to the United Nations Security Council under Resolution 1373, which requires all states to "refrain from providing any form of support to entities or persons involved in terrorist acts", give "early warning to other states" and "deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts ..." all on pain of punitive measures.
This multilateral approach, analysts say, would obviate overbearing US influence and must be explored. But it is not clear that Indian leaders can muster the will to take it.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Women In Metros In India
By M H Ahssan
Indian women living in India have come a long way from being the homemaker to being a pivotal player in charting the success of the company they work for. It is inspirational and interesting to learn how these women have overcome arduous struggles, and ventured out of their homes to move to bigger metro cities in order to explore their hidden capabilities. This has been a commendable decision not just for them, but also for the professions they excel in. More importantly, they bring about a sense and sensibility to the corporate world in a way only a woman can.
Aspirations. Dreams. Self esteem. Satisfaction. Independence. These terms are associated with developing your own identity, but were definitely not associated with women some years back. In the past decade, women in India have leap forwarded tremendously and one sees noticeable changes in the desires of a woman to make a mark for her. This is reflected through her choice of attire, or shifting home base to pursue her career, or speaking up confidently in the boardroom of her organization. This is just one part of the story that will unfold in the following paragraphs to come. The other part is that in order to walk closer to their goals, women in India are increasingly moving to metro cities – mainly Mumbai, New Delhi and Bangalore to carve a niche for themselves.
The interesting thing is that this migration to bigger cities is not just limited to popular careers like photography or entering the well acclaimed Bollywood, but is seen across various professional streams like modeling, graphic designing, IT, print and electronic media, education and academics. Women in mini-metros or other smaller cities are not inhibited by the fact that they will leave the sheltered cocoon of their parents and live by themselves in a metro city’s world of its own.
Life in a metro and a smaller town has a huge difference and can be quite a rude shock when you have just begun life in a big city and trying to settle down as quickly as possible. The contrasts in culture, sense of dressing, language used, working at odd hours, nightlife as well as attitude towards life can be as vast as the ocean. Despite prior knowledge to all these factors and more, the fairer sex (well, not accurate anymore in today’s world of metro sexuality and fairness creams for men!), chooses to take the bold decision of moving from the kitchen to the boardroom.
COMMON TEETHING PROBLEMS
To be a part of this mammoth change, Radhika did not have to try hard to convince her parents to let her go to Mumbai to realize her dream of becoming an actor. Hailing from another of the country’s metro cities – New Delhi, Radhika took her own time to adjust to this city of dreams. Coming from an influential political family did not make things easy for her, as she did not want to use her father’s name at every place and make the going easy for her. She wanted to learn things the hard way. Through a friend’s friend, finding her first home was not difficult at all; blissfully unaware of what was in store for her half a year down the line.
Radhika had agreed to battle these nitty-gritties on her own as she knew that no other city in India would give her the kind of opportunity that this metropolitan city offered. As much as she thought of New Delhi every single day and the time she spent there, she knew that it was only in Mumbai that she could realize her dream of being known as an actor. And the very fact of achieving something in life and making herself and her family proud made her keep ticking through the tough initial phase of knocking the doors of producers’ offices, working for lesser money than the market conditions, delayed paychecks and much more.
Around the time that Radhika was getting her way through crowded local trains and serpentine queues for buses, Anushka packed her bags to be known for her writing talent and be a journalist. With a bagful of faith in herself, she too entered the mammoth city. But it was not entirely unknown to her, having come to Mumbai every summer vacation to be with her grandparents. She at first stayed at her relatives’ place and when things didn’t work out in her favor, Anushka moved to a paying guest accommodation. Not once did she feel that she was leaving the big house where she grew up to a smaller apartment. It was at this apartment that Anushka and Radhika met.
Driven by a desire to achieve their goals professionally, Anushka and Radhika learnt not only various new aspects of the other’s professions, but their talks were also a lesson of how professional Mumbai a city is and practical tips to make the teething problems seem easier. Practical tips like not being soft-spoken, being able to negotiate salary, leaving home more than an hour before the scheduled appointment to account for the traffic, keeping make-up and perfume in the purse were really helpful. These things are not a part of any book, but are important in a big city where being presentable is really important, which is not always the case in smaller cities.
If Anushka had decided to continue pursuing her career in her hometown where she had obtained her professional degree in journalism, it was clear that her options were limited to the two big dailies of the state. Nothing more, nothing else. While the scenario in Mumbai, or any other similar metro for that matter, would be entirely different. “I not only had a variety of newspapers to choose from, there were other journalistic options that I had as well. Equally interesting options would have been working at a magazine or as a website content developer or working as an ad copywriter. I knew that there would be no dearth of choices to select from in these big cities. Maybe that is why they are called metro cities,” opined Anushka when asked about her move to Mumbai city.
WANTING TO GO BACK HOME
Meanwhile, as Anushka and Radhika took their first steps in the direction of where they wanted to be, Mili was nervous to step in to this western India’s metro city. From birth, she had always lived in a very small town of Gujarat, another state in western India. Though confident about her talent and work as a graphics designer, she was nonetheless jittery about how she would sustain herself in such a big city that looked exponentially more complex than her hometown. The sheer size of the city with the largest population was enough to make her more timid that what she already was.
Being used to reach any place within five minutes from her home, using three different modes of transport only to reach her work place irked her initially. What made her hold onto staying in Mumbai was the sheer work satisfaction she was getting and the number of different jobs she could hop onto when she felt the need to leave a particular job to climb up the professional ladder. That apart, she was being groomed naturally to a more confident person. A very natural, sub-conscious improvement was her getting better at spoken English.
SOUTHERN MINI-METRO
Moving from the western metro city to an almost southern metro city, there are many who go to Bangalore for their career aspirations to come true. Bangalore, popularly known worldwide as the Silicon Valley of India, is a booming city for Information Technology (IT). Again, there are a large number of options that one can choose from. If you are qualified and lucky, you may land up a job at an IBM or an Infosys. Other job opportunities are that of a call center, or IT solution provider companies as well, or similar professions given a boost by the huge outsourcing wave from foreign-based companies.
“After finishing my masters in German language, I got an offer from a German BPO and now I am working with them. I chose to come to Bangalore as it has more options to choose from than the small city I come from, which is based in western India,” said Harini on the reason she opted to come to Mumbai. For others, who are certain that they are meant to fit themselves in the IT world, then coming to Bangalore is a wise decision as more and more companies are investing their money to set up base in Bangalore, despite the traffic conditions and the city getting over crowded with every passing day.
CAPITAL CITY
Having covered southern and western metros, it’s now the turn of the north Indian metro and the nation’s capital – New Delhi. Like Mumbai, here too one can make a mark for themselves in any field. Being the country’s capital, most news channels have their studios here and it is also home to one of the biggest newspapers of the country – The Hindustan Times. Thus, if you are an aspiring journalist or a media person, then opting for New Delhi is not a bad idea at all.
“I opted to come to New Delhi after my first job stint in Hyderabad because the professionals there lacked in proper attitude and professionalism, which is not the case in a big metro city like Delhi. Plus, I get automatically molded to a stronger person by nature, as we girls brave everyday situations like being eve-teased or being taken for granted in office, or on the roads,” voiced Natasha Mittal from New Delhi, who is a hardcore workaholic who believes in working hard and partying harder.
Tarana too, a Lucknow-based girl, who had graduated in Hotel Management opted to move to New Delhi as she bagged a couple of job offers from some of the biggest names in the hotel industry. When asked if she willingly migrated from home to her paying guest accommodation, she said, “Why not? The idea of living in a metro appealed to me immediately for the main reason being that these big hotels would look very impressive on my resume and it would eventually help me do better when I want to start my own restaurant.” For these ladies to protect themselves from the somewhat uncouth crowd of the capital city, they both learnt basic self-defense techniques in case of any kind of harassment. And these lessons did not go waste when Natasha was being harassed in the bus in Delhi.
What you have just read are stories that give a peek in the life of only a handful of successful women who are treading the path of their dreams and for that have willingly stepped out of home to come out of the protective cocoon and explore the harsh realities of the world. And it is these women who have made aspirations, dreams, self-esteem, satisfaction and independence come true.
Indian women living in India have come a long way from being the homemaker to being a pivotal player in charting the success of the company they work for. It is inspirational and interesting to learn how these women have overcome arduous struggles, and ventured out of their homes to move to bigger metro cities in order to explore their hidden capabilities. This has been a commendable decision not just for them, but also for the professions they excel in. More importantly, they bring about a sense and sensibility to the corporate world in a way only a woman can.
Aspirations. Dreams. Self esteem. Satisfaction. Independence. These terms are associated with developing your own identity, but were definitely not associated with women some years back. In the past decade, women in India have leap forwarded tremendously and one sees noticeable changes in the desires of a woman to make a mark for her. This is reflected through her choice of attire, or shifting home base to pursue her career, or speaking up confidently in the boardroom of her organization. This is just one part of the story that will unfold in the following paragraphs to come. The other part is that in order to walk closer to their goals, women in India are increasingly moving to metro cities – mainly Mumbai, New Delhi and Bangalore to carve a niche for themselves.
The interesting thing is that this migration to bigger cities is not just limited to popular careers like photography or entering the well acclaimed Bollywood, but is seen across various professional streams like modeling, graphic designing, IT, print and electronic media, education and academics. Women in mini-metros or other smaller cities are not inhibited by the fact that they will leave the sheltered cocoon of their parents and live by themselves in a metro city’s world of its own.
Life in a metro and a smaller town has a huge difference and can be quite a rude shock when you have just begun life in a big city and trying to settle down as quickly as possible. The contrasts in culture, sense of dressing, language used, working at odd hours, nightlife as well as attitude towards life can be as vast as the ocean. Despite prior knowledge to all these factors and more, the fairer sex (well, not accurate anymore in today’s world of metro sexuality and fairness creams for men!), chooses to take the bold decision of moving from the kitchen to the boardroom.
COMMON TEETHING PROBLEMS
To be a part of this mammoth change, Radhika did not have to try hard to convince her parents to let her go to Mumbai to realize her dream of becoming an actor. Hailing from another of the country’s metro cities – New Delhi, Radhika took her own time to adjust to this city of dreams. Coming from an influential political family did not make things easy for her, as she did not want to use her father’s name at every place and make the going easy for her. She wanted to learn things the hard way. Through a friend’s friend, finding her first home was not difficult at all; blissfully unaware of what was in store for her half a year down the line.
Radhika had agreed to battle these nitty-gritties on her own as she knew that no other city in India would give her the kind of opportunity that this metropolitan city offered. As much as she thought of New Delhi every single day and the time she spent there, she knew that it was only in Mumbai that she could realize her dream of being known as an actor. And the very fact of achieving something in life and making herself and her family proud made her keep ticking through the tough initial phase of knocking the doors of producers’ offices, working for lesser money than the market conditions, delayed paychecks and much more.
Around the time that Radhika was getting her way through crowded local trains and serpentine queues for buses, Anushka packed her bags to be known for her writing talent and be a journalist. With a bagful of faith in herself, she too entered the mammoth city. But it was not entirely unknown to her, having come to Mumbai every summer vacation to be with her grandparents. She at first stayed at her relatives’ place and when things didn’t work out in her favor, Anushka moved to a paying guest accommodation. Not once did she feel that she was leaving the big house where she grew up to a smaller apartment. It was at this apartment that Anushka and Radhika met.
Driven by a desire to achieve their goals professionally, Anushka and Radhika learnt not only various new aspects of the other’s professions, but their talks were also a lesson of how professional Mumbai a city is and practical tips to make the teething problems seem easier. Practical tips like not being soft-spoken, being able to negotiate salary, leaving home more than an hour before the scheduled appointment to account for the traffic, keeping make-up and perfume in the purse were really helpful. These things are not a part of any book, but are important in a big city where being presentable is really important, which is not always the case in smaller cities.
If Anushka had decided to continue pursuing her career in her hometown where she had obtained her professional degree in journalism, it was clear that her options were limited to the two big dailies of the state. Nothing more, nothing else. While the scenario in Mumbai, or any other similar metro for that matter, would be entirely different. “I not only had a variety of newspapers to choose from, there were other journalistic options that I had as well. Equally interesting options would have been working at a magazine or as a website content developer or working as an ad copywriter. I knew that there would be no dearth of choices to select from in these big cities. Maybe that is why they are called metro cities,” opined Anushka when asked about her move to Mumbai city.
WANTING TO GO BACK HOME
Meanwhile, as Anushka and Radhika took their first steps in the direction of where they wanted to be, Mili was nervous to step in to this western India’s metro city. From birth, she had always lived in a very small town of Gujarat, another state in western India. Though confident about her talent and work as a graphics designer, she was nonetheless jittery about how she would sustain herself in such a big city that looked exponentially more complex than her hometown. The sheer size of the city with the largest population was enough to make her more timid that what she already was.
Being used to reach any place within five minutes from her home, using three different modes of transport only to reach her work place irked her initially. What made her hold onto staying in Mumbai was the sheer work satisfaction she was getting and the number of different jobs she could hop onto when she felt the need to leave a particular job to climb up the professional ladder. That apart, she was being groomed naturally to a more confident person. A very natural, sub-conscious improvement was her getting better at spoken English.
SOUTHERN MINI-METRO
Moving from the western metro city to an almost southern metro city, there are many who go to Bangalore for their career aspirations to come true. Bangalore, popularly known worldwide as the Silicon Valley of India, is a booming city for Information Technology (IT). Again, there are a large number of options that one can choose from. If you are qualified and lucky, you may land up a job at an IBM or an Infosys. Other job opportunities are that of a call center, or IT solution provider companies as well, or similar professions given a boost by the huge outsourcing wave from foreign-based companies.
“After finishing my masters in German language, I got an offer from a German BPO and now I am working with them. I chose to come to Bangalore as it has more options to choose from than the small city I come from, which is based in western India,” said Harini on the reason she opted to come to Mumbai. For others, who are certain that they are meant to fit themselves in the IT world, then coming to Bangalore is a wise decision as more and more companies are investing their money to set up base in Bangalore, despite the traffic conditions and the city getting over crowded with every passing day.
CAPITAL CITY
Having covered southern and western metros, it’s now the turn of the north Indian metro and the nation’s capital – New Delhi. Like Mumbai, here too one can make a mark for themselves in any field. Being the country’s capital, most news channels have their studios here and it is also home to one of the biggest newspapers of the country – The Hindustan Times. Thus, if you are an aspiring journalist or a media person, then opting for New Delhi is not a bad idea at all.
“I opted to come to New Delhi after my first job stint in Hyderabad because the professionals there lacked in proper attitude and professionalism, which is not the case in a big metro city like Delhi. Plus, I get automatically molded to a stronger person by nature, as we girls brave everyday situations like being eve-teased or being taken for granted in office, or on the roads,” voiced Natasha Mittal from New Delhi, who is a hardcore workaholic who believes in working hard and partying harder.
Tarana too, a Lucknow-based girl, who had graduated in Hotel Management opted to move to New Delhi as she bagged a couple of job offers from some of the biggest names in the hotel industry. When asked if she willingly migrated from home to her paying guest accommodation, she said, “Why not? The idea of living in a metro appealed to me immediately for the main reason being that these big hotels would look very impressive on my resume and it would eventually help me do better when I want to start my own restaurant.” For these ladies to protect themselves from the somewhat uncouth crowd of the capital city, they both learnt basic self-defense techniques in case of any kind of harassment. And these lessons did not go waste when Natasha was being harassed in the bus in Delhi.
What you have just read are stories that give a peek in the life of only a handful of successful women who are treading the path of their dreams and for that have willingly stepped out of home to come out of the protective cocoon and explore the harsh realities of the world. And it is these women who have made aspirations, dreams, self-esteem, satisfaction and independence come true.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Editorial: Long War Demands Changed Approach
By M H Ahssan
A week is a long time in a crisis. Last week I wrote about how war should not be our first response and that the India- Pakistan military balance was such that there could be no useful outcome from the use of force. I had argued that if we set out to give Pakistan a bloody nose, we could be bloodied too.
There were three assumptions behind my reasoning. The first was that the government of Pakistan, including its armed forces, were sincere when they said they were appalled by the Mumbai massacre and that they would do everything to help us to get to the bottom of the issue. The second, flowing from the first, was that Mr Zardari and his government were one with India in delivering a bloody nose to the terrorists and non- state actors operating in Pakistan. The third was that India was not keen on any option that could involve some loss to itself.
A week later, it seems that all three of my assumptions were wrong. Pakistan has decided to brazen it out.
After having gone through the motions of proscribing the Jamaatud- dawa ( because of the UN Security Council decision and not to oblige India, as their Minister of Defence insists), the enthusiasm to aid India has vanished. It has been replaced by a systematic and organized campaign of barracking, whose goal seems to be to protect those involved in the attacks by raising the spectre of war.
India’s Prime Minister correctly noted on Tuesday that “ the issue is not war, it is terror and territory in Pakistan being used to promote, aid and abet terror here.” Significantly, the PM noted that “ non- state actors were practicing terrorism, aided and abetted by state establishments.” To me it appears he is saying that the Lashkar were aided by the Pakistan Army’s Inter- Services Intelligence ( ISI) Directorate.
Dynamics
This seems to have a startling confirmation from across the border in Pakistan. One of the most telling responses has been from the real boss of Pakistan — General Pervez Ashfaq Kayani. In the past month, neither he nor the Pakistani military establishment has uttered a single word regretting the Mumbai massacre.
The ISI, which has been mentioned as a co- conspirator, reports to General Kayani. The general could have taken the opportunity to tell the world that since the ISI was mentioned, he had personally looked at the records and could assure everyone that his organization was in no way involved in the horrific event.
But he has said nothing to that effect. Instead, he has blustered about how Pakistan was prepared for war and that the Pakistani armed forces would mount “ an equal response within minutes” if India carried out any kind of strike. This seems to be the behaviour of a cornered guilty party, rather than that of one who has nothing on his or his institution’s conscience.
So, the government in New Delhi is faced with little option but to contemplate a chastisement strategy that could cost India some. But the mood in the country is such that the government would pay a higher price for doing nothing. In other words, it has the public backing for the use of any measure that would send a message to Pakistan that enough is enough.
In my article, I had expressed my hypothesis that the attack had been initiated by elements in the Pakistan army. I still think this is correct. At its lowest point in history, and faced with a debilitating war against people of their own ilk, the ISI came up with the terrible strategy of attacking India and provoking an Indian response. Two months ago, Asif Zardari and his civilian government were riding high; today they have tamely lined up behind Kayani and are hiding behind the national flag.
There is an important subsidiary reason why the international community needs to take the Mumbai massacre very seriously. Terrorist organisations have an internal dynamic. These are dependent on successful operations which enable them to expand their area of influence and boost recruitment. It is important to disrupt this process either by unearthing underground cells by arrest, choking funds, or by military action that targets their overground infrastructure like camps.
If India does not react adequately to the Mumbai strikes, the Lashkar will be tempted to step its attacks up to a higher and presumably more horrifying level. The logic here is that after being formally banned in Pakistan in January 2002, the ISI relocated Lashkar camps to Azad Kashmir.
Simultaneously, it began to use its Bangladeshi proxies and other assets to create the “ Indian Mujahideen” who would be Indian recruits, using local material to make bombs, but under the command and control of the ISI.
Mumbai
But the serial bombing campaign across Indian cities in the past few years has not yielded much return.
There have been no communal riots or signs that India has been seriously hurt economically. Besides their ability to plant the bombs, the IM achieved little in terms of jihadi goals.
This could have been the trigger for the Mumbai attack. And as the logic goes, Mumbai has united rather than disunited the nation, and so there is a need to press home the idea of an even more intense strike. India needs to break these dynamics, and it can do so with the help of the government of Pakistan and the international community.
Pathology
But if this help is not forthcoming, it must go it alone. The price of failure will be an even higher intensity of attacks and could well culminate in the use of nuclear weapons as well. Don’t forget, these are supposed to be in the custody of the Pakistan Army.
A month after the Mumbai strike, we have the strange situation where Pakistan has seized the mantle of victimhood. The issue, according to its leaders, is not that of a terrorist strike struck at a premier metropolis of a neighbour, killing nearly 200 people, injuring hundreds and terrorizing thousands, whose origins are in Pakistan, but that that neighbour is now allegedly threatening military action against Pakistan.
There is a strange pathology at work here and New Delhi needs to carefully feel its way towards a response. But being careful does not necessarily mean that it should be indecisive. It should not to be pushed to military action, but it should not rule it out either.
The issue should be seen from the perspective of the outcome. At present there is nothing more important than ending the dynamic of terrorist violence in the country. One part of this requires an internal response in terms of institutions, doctrines and action. The other part is external.
India has been found wanting in both because it has so far seen terrorist attacks as episodic distractions.
The unfortunate reality is that we are in the midst of a long war which requires changed strategies and tactics. The sooner we begin to act on this realisation, the better.
A week is a long time in a crisis. Last week I wrote about how war should not be our first response and that the India- Pakistan military balance was such that there could be no useful outcome from the use of force. I had argued that if we set out to give Pakistan a bloody nose, we could be bloodied too.
There were three assumptions behind my reasoning. The first was that the government of Pakistan, including its armed forces, were sincere when they said they were appalled by the Mumbai massacre and that they would do everything to help us to get to the bottom of the issue. The second, flowing from the first, was that Mr Zardari and his government were one with India in delivering a bloody nose to the terrorists and non- state actors operating in Pakistan. The third was that India was not keen on any option that could involve some loss to itself.
A week later, it seems that all three of my assumptions were wrong. Pakistan has decided to brazen it out.
After having gone through the motions of proscribing the Jamaatud- dawa ( because of the UN Security Council decision and not to oblige India, as their Minister of Defence insists), the enthusiasm to aid India has vanished. It has been replaced by a systematic and organized campaign of barracking, whose goal seems to be to protect those involved in the attacks by raising the spectre of war.
India’s Prime Minister correctly noted on Tuesday that “ the issue is not war, it is terror and territory in Pakistan being used to promote, aid and abet terror here.” Significantly, the PM noted that “ non- state actors were practicing terrorism, aided and abetted by state establishments.” To me it appears he is saying that the Lashkar were aided by the Pakistan Army’s Inter- Services Intelligence ( ISI) Directorate.
Dynamics
This seems to have a startling confirmation from across the border in Pakistan. One of the most telling responses has been from the real boss of Pakistan — General Pervez Ashfaq Kayani. In the past month, neither he nor the Pakistani military establishment has uttered a single word regretting the Mumbai massacre.
The ISI, which has been mentioned as a co- conspirator, reports to General Kayani. The general could have taken the opportunity to tell the world that since the ISI was mentioned, he had personally looked at the records and could assure everyone that his organization was in no way involved in the horrific event.
But he has said nothing to that effect. Instead, he has blustered about how Pakistan was prepared for war and that the Pakistani armed forces would mount “ an equal response within minutes” if India carried out any kind of strike. This seems to be the behaviour of a cornered guilty party, rather than that of one who has nothing on his or his institution’s conscience.
So, the government in New Delhi is faced with little option but to contemplate a chastisement strategy that could cost India some. But the mood in the country is such that the government would pay a higher price for doing nothing. In other words, it has the public backing for the use of any measure that would send a message to Pakistan that enough is enough.
In my article, I had expressed my hypothesis that the attack had been initiated by elements in the Pakistan army. I still think this is correct. At its lowest point in history, and faced with a debilitating war against people of their own ilk, the ISI came up with the terrible strategy of attacking India and provoking an Indian response. Two months ago, Asif Zardari and his civilian government were riding high; today they have tamely lined up behind Kayani and are hiding behind the national flag.
There is an important subsidiary reason why the international community needs to take the Mumbai massacre very seriously. Terrorist organisations have an internal dynamic. These are dependent on successful operations which enable them to expand their area of influence and boost recruitment. It is important to disrupt this process either by unearthing underground cells by arrest, choking funds, or by military action that targets their overground infrastructure like camps.
If India does not react adequately to the Mumbai strikes, the Lashkar will be tempted to step its attacks up to a higher and presumably more horrifying level. The logic here is that after being formally banned in Pakistan in January 2002, the ISI relocated Lashkar camps to Azad Kashmir.
Simultaneously, it began to use its Bangladeshi proxies and other assets to create the “ Indian Mujahideen” who would be Indian recruits, using local material to make bombs, but under the command and control of the ISI.
Mumbai
But the serial bombing campaign across Indian cities in the past few years has not yielded much return.
There have been no communal riots or signs that India has been seriously hurt economically. Besides their ability to plant the bombs, the IM achieved little in terms of jihadi goals.
This could have been the trigger for the Mumbai attack. And as the logic goes, Mumbai has united rather than disunited the nation, and so there is a need to press home the idea of an even more intense strike. India needs to break these dynamics, and it can do so with the help of the government of Pakistan and the international community.
Pathology
But if this help is not forthcoming, it must go it alone. The price of failure will be an even higher intensity of attacks and could well culminate in the use of nuclear weapons as well. Don’t forget, these are supposed to be in the custody of the Pakistan Army.
A month after the Mumbai strike, we have the strange situation where Pakistan has seized the mantle of victimhood. The issue, according to its leaders, is not that of a terrorist strike struck at a premier metropolis of a neighbour, killing nearly 200 people, injuring hundreds and terrorizing thousands, whose origins are in Pakistan, but that that neighbour is now allegedly threatening military action against Pakistan.
There is a strange pathology at work here and New Delhi needs to carefully feel its way towards a response. But being careful does not necessarily mean that it should be indecisive. It should not to be pushed to military action, but it should not rule it out either.
The issue should be seen from the perspective of the outcome. At present there is nothing more important than ending the dynamic of terrorist violence in the country. One part of this requires an internal response in terms of institutions, doctrines and action. The other part is external.
India has been found wanting in both because it has so far seen terrorist attacks as episodic distractions.
The unfortunate reality is that we are in the midst of a long war which requires changed strategies and tactics. The sooner we begin to act on this realisation, the better.
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Preacher Zakir Naik's Peace TV And Its Videos Are Banned, But Where They Made?
By NEWS KING | INNLIVE
Zakir Naik's now-infamous Peace TV has its offices in Dubai, Saudi Arabia, the USA and UK, but none in India. Officially speaking.
However, India - more specifically, the tiny area of Dongri in South Mumbai - is actually where Naik's videos are made.
A bit of background: Naik's 'provocative' Peace TV speeches and videos are said to have inspired some of the Bangladeshi terrorists, who killed 22 people, mostly foreigners, in the month of Ramzan at an upscale restaurant in Dhaka on 1 July.
For the past 11 years,
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Debt-Ridden Property Hangover Showers Discounts Galore
Now outstripping China as the world's fastest-growing major economy according to official data, India has a real estate market mired in debt piled up in a 2006-2007 construction boom that gave way to slowdown.
Thursday, August 01, 2013
Team India: Where Are From India’s Stars Coming?
In the 50s, playing for Bombay was almost as difficult as playing for India. There were times – six to be exact — when as many as seven cricketers in the Indian cricket team between 1952 and 1955-56 were from Bombay.
Cricket then was largely a sport played and patronised by princes and businessmen in urban centres. Cities like Bombay (now Mumbai), Bangalore (now Bengarulu), Madras (now Chennai), Baroda, Hyderabad, Delhi used to pull in talented cricketers from everywhere.
Wednesday, June 01, 2016
Food Talk: When Did The Bao Become The New Cronut?
By AEMAN NISHAT | INNLIVE
Everybody is serving the steamed buns filled with sweet-savoury odds and ends. Where did the trend start? And why?
Somewhere around 2011, Mumbai discovered the cupcake. What was really just cake and frosting in a not-even-so-new shape was suddenly everywhere – topped with delicate cream cheese on the shelves of fancy new patisseries, crowned with lurid buttercream on the display windows of old local bakeries. And of all cupcakes, red velvet was the most venerated – lauded for its mysterious crimson hue, extolled for its velvetiness. Tell an impassioned red velvet fan that it’s just boring old sponge cake with a dash of cocoa and a smidge of artificial food colouring – or worse, beet juice – and you’ll shatter their hopes and dreams.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Focus: Bengaluru Is The King Of India’s Real Estate Market
In a recent survey, the hi-fi city of India - Bengaluru tops the chart by becoming the most favourite place to live and invest in real estate followed by Hyderabad and Gurgaon.In 2009, at least five cities were ahead of Bengaluru—India’s technology heartland—on the list of the country’s top real estate markets. Not anymore.
A survey by property data company, PropEquity, has found that the southern Indian city is now the country’s leading real estate destination, beating Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Noida and Chennai, which were ahead of it six years ago.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
Axis Bank Refunds Mumbai Police 'Hacked' Accounts
Axis Bank has refunded the amount that was fraudulently withdrawn from 37 accounts, including 12 being operated by Mumbai police, through multiple withdrawals at ATMs in Greece. Yesterday INN carried a story in these columns captioned 'Mumbai Police Salary Accounts Hacked, Withdrawn Abroad' and immediately police officials and Axis Bank initiated inquiry and taken the issue on priority to solve. As an impact today, Axis Bank announced to compensate the 'hacked' salaries to the concerns.
Saturday, March 08, 2014
New Trend Of Marketing In Politics Is Gaining Momentum
In the wildest of Dream, the founding father of Marketing would not have imagined such an innovative, creative, out of the box application of Marketing concept!! Yes, the readers of this blog are thinking right it is a unique marriage between Marketing and Politics.
Ever since politics has become synonymous with the power, marketing has been used widely by politician for own advantage. In fact, now a days political pundit is hiring multitude of professionals to work for their cause in fact marketing has been used increasingly in politics.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Disaster averted at Mumbai airport
By Manjula Kala
A major disaster was averted at the Mumbai airport on Monday when an Air Force helicopter of president Pratibha Patil's fleet landed on the runway as an Air India plane was about to take off for Delhi.
The pilot of the Air India flight to Delhi--IC 866-- aborted take off when he saw the helicopter landing on the runway he was about to use, official sources said.
It was not immediately clear whether Patil was on board the helicopter.
A fleet of three helicopters including the one carrying Patil, along with Maharashtra governor SC Jamir and some other dignitaries, had taken off from Mumbai's Naval base 'INS Kunjali' and were on their way to the airport since the president was to fly to Gondia by her special IAF plane to attend a function.
"At around 09.00 hrs today, an Air Force chopper landed on the same runway from which Air India flight IC 866 (with 150 passengers on board) was taking off for Delhi, forcing the pilot of the plane to abort take off at the last minute," a Mumbai Airport official said here.
The Air India aircraft, he said, was taxiing to reach the main runway for the take off when the Air Traffic Control talked to the pilot regarding the helicopter. The pilot applied the brake to bring the aircraft to a halt, he said.
Official sources later said that the president was not on board the helicopter and she later took off by her special aircraft for the schduled function.
Mumbai International Airport authorities did not comment on the incident, saying that, "this is purely an issue concerning the Mumbai Air Traffic Control, which had allowed both the landing and the take off."
A probe into the incident has been ordered by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, the sources said. A senior DGCA official is coming from New Delhi to Mumbai to join the investigation, they said.
Pilot of IC 866 Captain SS Kohli wondered how the chopper landed when he had been given a clearance by the ATC to take off. "The chopper just landed without taking a landing clearance. I cannot say much more," he said.
An IAF spokesman said, "the pilots of the chopper had followed the instructions from Bombay approach meliculously. The presidential entourage was cleared to take off from INS Kunjali and land at Santa Cruz between two taxiways". An inquiry has been ordered by the IAF into the incident, he said.
A passenger on board the Air India flight said, "We were going to Delhi and there were few seconds left for take off and at that time the chopper came from the upper side."
"Emergency brakes were applied by the captain," he said, adding that the passengers saw the chopper which had the Indian flag embossed on it.
A major disaster was averted at the Mumbai airport on Monday when an Air Force helicopter of president Pratibha Patil's fleet landed on the runway as an Air India plane was about to take off for Delhi.
The pilot of the Air India flight to Delhi--IC 866-- aborted take off when he saw the helicopter landing on the runway he was about to use, official sources said.
It was not immediately clear whether Patil was on board the helicopter.
A fleet of three helicopters including the one carrying Patil, along with Maharashtra governor SC Jamir and some other dignitaries, had taken off from Mumbai's Naval base 'INS Kunjali' and were on their way to the airport since the president was to fly to Gondia by her special IAF plane to attend a function.
"At around 09.00 hrs today, an Air Force chopper landed on the same runway from which Air India flight IC 866 (with 150 passengers on board) was taking off for Delhi, forcing the pilot of the plane to abort take off at the last minute," a Mumbai Airport official said here.
The Air India aircraft, he said, was taxiing to reach the main runway for the take off when the Air Traffic Control talked to the pilot regarding the helicopter. The pilot applied the brake to bring the aircraft to a halt, he said.
Official sources later said that the president was not on board the helicopter and she later took off by her special aircraft for the schduled function.
Mumbai International Airport authorities did not comment on the incident, saying that, "this is purely an issue concerning the Mumbai Air Traffic Control, which had allowed both the landing and the take off."
A probe into the incident has been ordered by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, the sources said. A senior DGCA official is coming from New Delhi to Mumbai to join the investigation, they said.
Pilot of IC 866 Captain SS Kohli wondered how the chopper landed when he had been given a clearance by the ATC to take off. "The chopper just landed without taking a landing clearance. I cannot say much more," he said.
An IAF spokesman said, "the pilots of the chopper had followed the instructions from Bombay approach meliculously. The presidential entourage was cleared to take off from INS Kunjali and land at Santa Cruz between two taxiways". An inquiry has been ordered by the IAF into the incident, he said.
A passenger on board the Air India flight said, "We were going to Delhi and there were few seconds left for take off and at that time the chopper came from the upper side."
"Emergency brakes were applied by the captain," he said, adding that the passengers saw the chopper which had the Indian flag embossed on it.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Why Pakistan's Military is Gun Shy?
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
The attack on Mumbai on November 26 by Pakistan-linked militants opens a similar opportunity for India to what happened to Washington after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. The US was able to further its regional designs with global support and was able to coerce Islamabad into cracking down on its own strategic partner, the Taliban in Afghanistan.
New Delhi also now has the international community on its side, but Pakistan is in a very different position from where it was seven years ago, and the new political and military leaders are not in a position to take similar steps to those of their predecessors.
In a new round of international pressure following the Mumbai attack, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, arrived in Pakistan this week to meet with senior Pakistani officials. The chief of Interpol was also scheduled to visit Islamabad on Tuesday to discuss the mechanism for the arrest and interrogation of wanted people such as Zakiur Rahman, the chief of the Lashka-e-Toiba (LET), which was connected to the militants who attacked Mumbai; Maulana Masood Azhar of the outlawed Jaish-e-Mohammed and former Mumbai underworld kingpin Dawood Ibrahim.
India is reported to have mobilized forces near the Rajasthan-Sindh Pakistani border areas and Pakistani intelligence sources have talked of possible surgical strikes on militant bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and in Lahore, at the central offices of the Jamaatut Dawa, which this month was declared by the United Nations Security Council a front for the LET, which is banned as a terror group. The Pakistan Air Force has been placed on red alert.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, both in public statements and private meetings, urged Pakistan to understand the gravity of the current situation and to take immediate steps to stop terrorists from using its soil for attacking others. The US warned Pakistan that in the absence of appropriate steps, it would be hard for the US to prevent Delhi from carrying out strikes inside Pakistan in retaliation for the Mumbai attack in which 10 militants held the city hostage for three days and killed 175 people, including top police officials.
In a speech at Washington's Council on Foreign Relations, Rice said what Pakistan had done so far to catch those responsible for the attacks in Mumbai was not enough. "You need to deal with the terrorism problem," she said when asked what her message was to Pakistan. "And it's not enough to say these are non-state actors. If they’re operating from Pakistani territory, then they have to be dealt with."
According to reports, Islamabad has assured Indian leaders and international leaders such as British Prime Minister Gordon Brown that it is ready to take all steps demanded by the world community to avoid a war.
All the same, actions speak louder than words and the prevailing opinion in Western capitals and in New Delhi is that Pakistan will not undertake any real crackdown on militants.
This view is reinforced by the contradictory statements of Pakistani officials. On December 7, Pakistani authorities issued a statement that Azhar, the founder of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, had been placed under house arrested at his Bahawalpur residence in Punjab. But on December 17, first the Pakistan envoy to New Delhi and then Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi stunned everybody by saying that Azhar was at large and not in Pakistan.
Azhar, a firebrand orator in favor of jihad although he has never been a combatant, was arrested in India in 1994 over his connections with the Kashmiri separatist group Harkatul Mujahideen. In December 1999, Azhar was freed along with separatist guerrillas Mushtaq Zargar and Omar Shiekh (the abductor of US reporter Daniel Pearl in Karachi in 2002) by the Indian government in exchange for passengers on the hijacked Indian Airlines Flight 814 that was held hostage in Kandahar, Afghanistan, under Taliban control.
In 2000, Azhar, claimed by Pakistan to have never entered Pakistan, announced the formation of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, at a press briefing at the Karachi Press Club, along with the now slain Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai. Jaish was banned in 2002 under US pressure, but Azhar remained close to the Pakistani establishment, mainly because he refused to support al-Qaeda against the Pakistan military.
Following the Mumbai attack, Delhi has demanded that Azhar, along with others such as Dawood, be handed over. This was refused by Pakistan, which said Azhar was a Pakistani national and had never been tried by Indian authorities. Then came the surprise announcement that he was not even in Pakistan.
What complicates the situation is the lack of unity between the civilian government in Islamabad and the military. The government managed to get the international community to support it by having the Jamaatut Dawa declared a front for the LET to justify a crackdown on the organization against the will of the army. (See Pakistan's military takes a big hit Asia Times Online, December 13.)
But the military establishment, which has been humiliated over the past seven years, has good reasons not to back the government.
The problems started after September 11, when the US forced the then-military government of president General Pervez Musharraf to abandon the Taliban. Up to 2001, Afghanistan had virtually been a fifth Pakistani province for which Pakistan arranged day-to-day expenditures. Even the communications network was run by the Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation Limited.
By 2003, Pakistan had been forced to send the army into the restive tribal areas bordering Afghanistan to crack down on al-Qaeda and militants, in breach of its agreements with the tribes.
In 2004, Pakistan was forced to shut militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and to accept India's fencing of the Line of Control that separates the two Kashmirs. As a result, militant operations into India-administered Kashmir were badly interrupted.
When Pakistan changed its Afghan policy, Musharraf, who was also chief of army staff, informed all jihadi organizations that the policy was necessary to preserve Pakistan's interests in Kashmir. However, when the Kashmir policy changed and operations started in the tribal areas, the jihadi organizations reacted.
By 2005, all the big names in the LET had left the Kashmiri camps and taken up in the North and South Waziristan tribal areas. The same happened with Jaish and other organizations. The most respected name of the Kashmiri struggle, Maulana Ilyas Kashmiri, the commander of Harkatul Jihad al-Islami, also moved to Waziristan.
This was the beginning of serious problems for Pakistan and also resulted in a change in the dynamics of the Afghan war. Trained by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence's India cell, these disgruntled militants caused havoc in Afghanistan and played a significant role in bringing the latest guerrilla tactics to Afghanistan. They also introduced major changes in the fighting techniques of the tribal militants against the Pakistani forces.
By 2006, the Taliban had regrouped and launched the spring offensive that paved the way for significant advances over the next two years. At the same time, militants escalated their activities in Pakistan and forced Pakistan into virtual neutrality in the US-led "war on terror".
An unprecedented number of attacks were carried out on Pakistani security forces in 2007 and by February 2008 suicide attacks in Pakistan outnumbered those in Iraq. Militants carried out dozens of attacks on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) supply lines from Karachi, virtually bringing them to a halt. According to Strategic Forecasting, a Texas-based private intelligence entity: "Pakistan remains the single-most important logistics route for the Afghan campaign. This is not by accident. It is by far the quickest and most efficient overland route to the open ocean."
In this situation, the only peaceful place in Pakistan is Punjab, the largest province and the seat of government. But this peace can only be ensured through central Punjabi jihadi leaders like Hafiz Muhammad Saeed of the LET and southern Punjabi jihadi leader Azhar. Azhar has influence in the jihadi networks in Punjab and he convinced jihadis, after a wave of suicide attacks in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad, to go to Afghanistan and spare Punjab.
The highly demoralized Pakistan army has failed in the tribal areas and in the Swat Valley it has had to solicit peace accords. Opening up a new front in Punjab, which could spread to the port city of Karachi - the financial lifeline of the country - would be a disaster.
This explains the military's resistance to the government push to go full out against militancy, a move that would also compromise NATO's lifeline to Afghanistan.
The attack on Mumbai on November 26 by Pakistan-linked militants opens a similar opportunity for India to what happened to Washington after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. The US was able to further its regional designs with global support and was able to coerce Islamabad into cracking down on its own strategic partner, the Taliban in Afghanistan.
New Delhi also now has the international community on its side, but Pakistan is in a very different position from where it was seven years ago, and the new political and military leaders are not in a position to take similar steps to those of their predecessors.
In a new round of international pressure following the Mumbai attack, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, arrived in Pakistan this week to meet with senior Pakistani officials. The chief of Interpol was also scheduled to visit Islamabad on Tuesday to discuss the mechanism for the arrest and interrogation of wanted people such as Zakiur Rahman, the chief of the Lashka-e-Toiba (LET), which was connected to the militants who attacked Mumbai; Maulana Masood Azhar of the outlawed Jaish-e-Mohammed and former Mumbai underworld kingpin Dawood Ibrahim.
India is reported to have mobilized forces near the Rajasthan-Sindh Pakistani border areas and Pakistani intelligence sources have talked of possible surgical strikes on militant bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and in Lahore, at the central offices of the Jamaatut Dawa, which this month was declared by the United Nations Security Council a front for the LET, which is banned as a terror group. The Pakistan Air Force has been placed on red alert.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, both in public statements and private meetings, urged Pakistan to understand the gravity of the current situation and to take immediate steps to stop terrorists from using its soil for attacking others. The US warned Pakistan that in the absence of appropriate steps, it would be hard for the US to prevent Delhi from carrying out strikes inside Pakistan in retaliation for the Mumbai attack in which 10 militants held the city hostage for three days and killed 175 people, including top police officials.
In a speech at Washington's Council on Foreign Relations, Rice said what Pakistan had done so far to catch those responsible for the attacks in Mumbai was not enough. "You need to deal with the terrorism problem," she said when asked what her message was to Pakistan. "And it's not enough to say these are non-state actors. If they’re operating from Pakistani territory, then they have to be dealt with."
According to reports, Islamabad has assured Indian leaders and international leaders such as British Prime Minister Gordon Brown that it is ready to take all steps demanded by the world community to avoid a war.
All the same, actions speak louder than words and the prevailing opinion in Western capitals and in New Delhi is that Pakistan will not undertake any real crackdown on militants.
This view is reinforced by the contradictory statements of Pakistani officials. On December 7, Pakistani authorities issued a statement that Azhar, the founder of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, had been placed under house arrested at his Bahawalpur residence in Punjab. But on December 17, first the Pakistan envoy to New Delhi and then Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi stunned everybody by saying that Azhar was at large and not in Pakistan.
Azhar, a firebrand orator in favor of jihad although he has never been a combatant, was arrested in India in 1994 over his connections with the Kashmiri separatist group Harkatul Mujahideen. In December 1999, Azhar was freed along with separatist guerrillas Mushtaq Zargar and Omar Shiekh (the abductor of US reporter Daniel Pearl in Karachi in 2002) by the Indian government in exchange for passengers on the hijacked Indian Airlines Flight 814 that was held hostage in Kandahar, Afghanistan, under Taliban control.
In 2000, Azhar, claimed by Pakistan to have never entered Pakistan, announced the formation of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, at a press briefing at the Karachi Press Club, along with the now slain Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai. Jaish was banned in 2002 under US pressure, but Azhar remained close to the Pakistani establishment, mainly because he refused to support al-Qaeda against the Pakistan military.
Following the Mumbai attack, Delhi has demanded that Azhar, along with others such as Dawood, be handed over. This was refused by Pakistan, which said Azhar was a Pakistani national and had never been tried by Indian authorities. Then came the surprise announcement that he was not even in Pakistan.
What complicates the situation is the lack of unity between the civilian government in Islamabad and the military. The government managed to get the international community to support it by having the Jamaatut Dawa declared a front for the LET to justify a crackdown on the organization against the will of the army. (See Pakistan's military takes a big hit Asia Times Online, December 13.)
But the military establishment, which has been humiliated over the past seven years, has good reasons not to back the government.
The problems started after September 11, when the US forced the then-military government of president General Pervez Musharraf to abandon the Taliban. Up to 2001, Afghanistan had virtually been a fifth Pakistani province for which Pakistan arranged day-to-day expenditures. Even the communications network was run by the Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation Limited.
By 2003, Pakistan had been forced to send the army into the restive tribal areas bordering Afghanistan to crack down on al-Qaeda and militants, in breach of its agreements with the tribes.
In 2004, Pakistan was forced to shut militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and to accept India's fencing of the Line of Control that separates the two Kashmirs. As a result, militant operations into India-administered Kashmir were badly interrupted.
When Pakistan changed its Afghan policy, Musharraf, who was also chief of army staff, informed all jihadi organizations that the policy was necessary to preserve Pakistan's interests in Kashmir. However, when the Kashmir policy changed and operations started in the tribal areas, the jihadi organizations reacted.
By 2005, all the big names in the LET had left the Kashmiri camps and taken up in the North and South Waziristan tribal areas. The same happened with Jaish and other organizations. The most respected name of the Kashmiri struggle, Maulana Ilyas Kashmiri, the commander of Harkatul Jihad al-Islami, also moved to Waziristan.
This was the beginning of serious problems for Pakistan and also resulted in a change in the dynamics of the Afghan war. Trained by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence's India cell, these disgruntled militants caused havoc in Afghanistan and played a significant role in bringing the latest guerrilla tactics to Afghanistan. They also introduced major changes in the fighting techniques of the tribal militants against the Pakistani forces.
By 2006, the Taliban had regrouped and launched the spring offensive that paved the way for significant advances over the next two years. At the same time, militants escalated their activities in Pakistan and forced Pakistan into virtual neutrality in the US-led "war on terror".
An unprecedented number of attacks were carried out on Pakistani security forces in 2007 and by February 2008 suicide attacks in Pakistan outnumbered those in Iraq. Militants carried out dozens of attacks on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) supply lines from Karachi, virtually bringing them to a halt. According to Strategic Forecasting, a Texas-based private intelligence entity: "Pakistan remains the single-most important logistics route for the Afghan campaign. This is not by accident. It is by far the quickest and most efficient overland route to the open ocean."
In this situation, the only peaceful place in Pakistan is Punjab, the largest province and the seat of government. But this peace can only be ensured through central Punjabi jihadi leaders like Hafiz Muhammad Saeed of the LET and southern Punjabi jihadi leader Azhar. Azhar has influence in the jihadi networks in Punjab and he convinced jihadis, after a wave of suicide attacks in Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad, to go to Afghanistan and spare Punjab.
The highly demoralized Pakistan army has failed in the tribal areas and in the Swat Valley it has had to solicit peace accords. Opening up a new front in Punjab, which could spread to the port city of Karachi - the financial lifeline of the country - would be a disaster.
This explains the military's resistance to the government push to go full out against militancy, a move that would also compromise NATO's lifeline to Afghanistan.
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