Since the other parties are represented in several states, the SP, which has fared poorly in states other than UP, gets a chance to claim in its campaign in UP from now afterwards that its model of ‘samajwad’ is all set to conquer new states.
The five parties merging into Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party are Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular). Mulayam will be the president of the new political front.
The fact that the new entity will now focus on Bihar is evident from reports that Nitish Kumar will be its chief ministerial candidate for the assembly polls in Bihar slated for later this year. In Bihar, the existence of parties other then RJD and JD(U) is negligible and the JD(S), SP, INLD and SJP have nothing at stake in that state.
At present, the Samajwadi Party has five seats in the Lok Sabha (all represented by members of one family), 15 in the Rajya Sabha and has its government in UP with 232 members in the UP assembly. The RJD has four Lok Sabha members and one in the Rajya Sabha, while the JD(U) has two in the Lok Sabha and 12 in the Rajya Sabha.
The JD(S) has two seats in the Lok Sabha and one in the Rajya Sabha, while INLD has two members in Lok Sabha, and one in Rajya Sabha. In total, the new party will have strength of 15 members in the Lok Sabha and and 30 in Rajya Sabha.
The announcement has come a day after BJP president Amit Shah launched the party’s campaign in Patna and a day after Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati staged a show of strength in Lucknow.
According to one SP leader, the merger will have “little or no impact in UP since the SP is already a dominant player and other parties are almost irrelevant.” The strength of the new party, he felt, will only be tested in Bihar where two constituents of the new outfit – RJD and JD(U) will now have to “stand by each other instead of against each other.”
Statistics show that in UP, the SP got 29 percent votes in the 2012 Assembly election, whereas RJD got 0.04 percent, JD(U) got 0.36 percent and JD(S) with 0.01 percent votes had a poor performance.
Similarly in Haryana, in the 2014 assembly election, INLD had secured 24.11 percent votes, SP 0.08 percent votes and JD(U) got 0.00 percent votes, despite having contested two seats. In the 2013 Karnataka assembly election, the JD(S) had secured 20.19 percent votes, followed by 0.34 percent for SP and 0.22 percent for JD(U). The SP had managed to win one seat in the state.
Till January, there was little enthusiasm in SP for the proposed merger, and the date for an announcement in this regard was repeatedly delayed. Through January to March, JD(U) and RJD had gone ahead with their independent programmes in Bihar while SP leadership was busy with the Saifai Mahotsav.
Differences among leaders over supporting Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly election and the reluctance of SP to part with its symbol also delayed the merger announcement.
The developments caught some speed with the marriage of Mulayam’s nephew with Lalu’s daughter, and later a meeting Nitsh Kumar had with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After this, it was learnt that it was Lalu who expedited the pace.
According to Prof Rahul Shukla of Lucknow University, "the sentiment of ‘total revolution’ that had been ignited before the emergence of Janata Party in 1977 under the direction of Jayaprakash Narayan or JP, is nowhere to be seen.” He reasons that for a majority of voters who are young, the emergence of a mega front against the Congress in the aftermath of the Emergency is not even part of their memory.
"But what most of these voters do remember is that there was some kind of a united opposition against the then prime minister Indira Gandhi of which the Jan Sangh – now existing as BJP – was a part. The replication of a similar scenario with BJP’s Narendra Modi having replaced Indira Gandhi is a far cry.”
Samajwadi Party spokesperson Shahid Siddiqi, says that with the merger, the SP is now a bigger family and will have the opportunity to spread its wings in other states. "We would also like other secular parties to come with us," he said. He added that SP workers were happy at the turn of events and a befitting welcome and celebration will be held once Mulayam came to Lucknow.
A BJP spokesman termed the merger as of no consequence, saying the parties except SP did not matter in UP and it was only a ploy on SP’s part to add to its campaign.
BJP national spokesperson MJ Akbar said the electorate were tired of the theatrics of Bihar chief minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar.
"It is a temporary alliance of political warlords, who think elections are determined not on the basis of governance, but on the basis of barren (electoral) mathematics. As Amit Shahji has said zero plus zero equals to zero," Akbar said.
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