If certain poll surveys are to be believed, then the Aam Aadmi Party can easily be expected to cross the magic figure of 36 in the 70-member Delhi Assembly and stake claim to form a government in the city-state.
AAP has hit a hat-trick with surveys conducted in the run-up to the election. Two poll surveys done in the past one week have given a clear edge to AAP over its nearest rival, the BJP, while the third survey predicts that AAP would fall just one seat short of the majority. The Economic Times-TNS survey predicts AAP getting 36-40 seats. According to the survey, AAP is likely to get 49 percent of the votes. The same survey shows the BJP ending up with 28-32 seats.
Another survey conducted by Hindustan Times in collaboration with C-Fore shows AAP as winning 36-41 seats, with the BJP finishing second with 27-32 seats. The third survey conducted by ABP News-Nielsen has predicted that AAP would win 35 seats and the BJP, 29.
Though the poll surveys have clearly lifted the mood of AAP supporters, they have predicted a complete rout for the Congress party. All the three surveys indicate that the Congress would be reduced to single digits in the Delhi Assembly election.
The BJP may outrightly dismiss all surveys but within the party, the reality seems to be sinking in. Though the BJP’s internal surveys have predicted a clear win for the party, some in the top rung of its leadership are in panic mode.
“We have clearly underestimated the reach of AAP among Delhi voters… it will be a tough contest,” a senior BJP leader told INNLIVE.
The votes are yet to be cast and the results are yet to be announced, and in Indian politics, things are known to change overnight. However, irrespective of who wins, there are enough reasons for the BJP to introspect. As the Delhi election campaign draws to a close, some political analysts say that the BJP might have erred in treating AAP as a non-entity at the beginning of the campaign.
Riding on its consecutive successes after the 2014 Lok Sabha election, including a string of Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP may have fallen prey to complacency. In sharp contrast, Arvind ‘Mufflerman’ Kejriwal slowly and steadily worked his way to grab eyeballs and the subaltern vote.
Initially, Kejriwal kept a low profile and consistently communicated with the voters.
He made it a point to acknowledge, with all the humility at his command, that quitting the Delhi government after a 49- day stint was a mistake and promised not to repeat the same. It worked wonders for AAP; Kejriwal gained an image of a reformed leader whose integrity was beyond reproach.
Parachuting a retired IPS officer, Kiran Bedi, also did not go down well with a section of the BJP rank and file. Jittered by the fact that the party lacked a credible face in the Delhi election, and with AAP taking its Delhi state unit president, Satish Upadhyay, head-on by accusing him of corruption, the BJP decided to rope in Kejriwal’s friend-turned-foe Bedi. A clear voice of dissent was heard from within the party after the BJP top brass announced an ‘outsider’ as the party’s chief ministerial candidate.
From a tough-talking cop, Bedi, in the run-up to the election, was restricted to a prop and was gradually sidelined by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. BJP insiders say that if the party leadership had propped up Dr Harsh Vardhan instead, it could have been a game-changer. Vardhan enjoys the confidence of the state BJP leaders and by projecting him as the face of the party’s election campaign, it could have nipped the rebellion in the bud. However, the BJP bigwigs decided to look the other way.
Sandeep Bhushan, a senior journalist and a research fellow at the Centre for Culture, Media and Governance, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, points out another major issue that the BJP might have failed to look into. “It is the middle class and the BPL (Below Poverty Line) households that decide the fate of the Delhi election and most of these voters have migrated from other states and made this city their home.
Their issues are far more practical. They desist from personal attacks and are keen to elect a party that best addresses their core issues. In the 2013 election, these voters were fence-sitters and were not sure that AAP would get the numbers. But the results showed otherwise. This time, they see AAP as a formidable force and an alternative to the BJP. Clearly, a regional political power has emerged in the shape of AAP,” Bhushan told INNLIVE. “AAP seems to have captured the angst of voters, who are still waiting for the acche din promised by the BJP.”
Another factor that could backfire on the BJP are some of the advertisements personally attacking Kejriwal. For instance, in one advertisement, a cartoon showed Kejriwal standing between his two children, with his hands placed over their hands. “For power, I will dishonestly swear on my children as I beat the drum of honesty,” it read.
The advertisement was a dig at Kejriwal, who made a pledge on his children after the 2013 Assembly poll results that he would not enter into an alliance with either the Congress or the BJP. Another advertisement showed Kejriwal holding a broom — AAP’s symbol — and threatening to disrupt the Republic Day celebrations in the capital. It contained a reference to Kejriwal’s gotra (caste). AAP responded by taking on the BJP over the “casteist” political advertising and dragged the issue to the Election Commission.
However, the high point of the campaign was when a breakaway section of AAP, namely AAP Volunteer Action Manch (AVAM), accused the party of receiving funds to the tune of Rs 2 crore from four dubious companies — Goldmine Buildcon, Skyline Metal and Alloys, Infolance Software Solutions and Sunvision Agencies.
“We have four transaction IDs under which donations of Rs 50 lakh each were made by four companies at 12 am on 5 April 2014. The companies have fake addresses, a common set of directors and no business at all. They do not buy or sell anything. They make no money and only pay auditors,” AVAM representative Gopal Goel said at a press conference.
Goel alleged that it was a case of organised money laundering. The BJP was quick to latch on to the controversy and sought to capitalise on it. Shazia Ilmi, who joined the BJP after quitting AAP, coined a phrase for it; she called it “ Hawala at Midnight”. For its part, AAP said it was ready for a probe and dared the BJP and the Congress alike to get their source of funds probed by the same investigating agency. It even challenged the BJP to a public debate on the source of funding, to which the BJP was seen looking askance.
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