Saturday, February 22, 2014

Telangana: Will Andhra Split Ring The Death Knell For TDP?

By Prabhakar Reddy | Hyderabad

Telugu Desam party supremo Chandrababu Naidu did not mince words in holding the Bharatiya Janata Party equally responsible for its “failure” in protecting the interests of people of Seemaandhra. He asserted that the BJP had “failed” in its responsibility as the main Opposition. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the TDP is opposed to carving out of a separate Telangana, according to Naidu himself. 
He always was “very clear…from the beginning” that he demanded an 'equal justice', a demand that was jeered and derided by the TDP cadres when raised by YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s mother YS Vijayalakshmi during her dharna in Guntur. For a leader of Naidu’s stature, who ruled the state without interruption for close to nine years, it is painful to remain a mute witness to its bifurcation. But is it true that he is losing ground fast in both regions – Seemaandhra and Telangana – which will soon be two new states. 

The answer isn’t that simple. There are two sides to this querulous question. On the face of it, the party’s position appears to be tottering. But given its strong cadre rooted in every nook and cranny of the state, the political astuteness of the party cannot be brushed aside.

The most pertinent question being raised by Naidu’s critics at this point in time is that can he ever say that his party strongly demanded a United Andhra Pradesh, an aspiration that the people of Seemaandhra always nursed. What buttresses the criticism are the observations of the TDP party leaders themselves, listed as follows: 

1. Telugu Desam Parliamentary Party leader Nama Nageswara Rao claimed that he had cast his first vote in the Lok Sabha in favour of the bifurcation. 
2. TDP MLA Mandava Venkateswara Rao from Nizamabad district had the temerity to say that the creation of Telangana would not have been possible, but for the “nod” given by the party on more than one occasion. 
3. Telangana TDP forum head Errabelli Dayakar Rao pointed out that the party would soon be a ‘national party’ with two units in two different States. 

While the Telangana TDP leaders are gloating that the credit of bifurcation should go to Naidu, the Seemaandhra TDP leaders detest the idea bitterly. With the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, at the head of agitation, apportioning the credit to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Telangana Congress leaders for the creation of Telangana, the Telangana TDP leaders’ claims may not hold much water. 

But they have surely embarrassed the party in its original bastion – the Seemaandhra region. Ironically, the TDP’s claim -  that it had developed Hyderabad -  did not cut much ice with voters of the capital city, if the poll verdict of 2009 assembly elections is any indication. The party hardly won even a single seat in the state capital. However, its performance was surely impressive in the erstwhile Assembly polls in rest of Telangana.

But the political chemistry that had worked for the TDP with other parties like the TRS and the Left parties in 2009 is a thing of the past now. Despite that, TDP’s strong cadre base never showed the signs of erosion, though senior leaders like Kadiyam Srihari (TRS), Pocharam Srinivas Reddy (TRS), Nagam Janardhan Reddy (BJP) and others quit and joined the TRS or the BJP. 

In Seemandhra region too, some leaders and a few MLAs bade adieu to the party and joined the YSR Congress in search of greener pastures, but the cadre strength remained intact. A snap-survey by Headlines Today-C Voter found that Chandrababu Naidu came a poor second with 27.5 per cent of surveyed audience favouring him, lagging far behind YS Jaganmohan Reddy (50.9 per cent) in Seemaandhra region as the best suited leader to develop the region. In Telangana region, 49.1 per cent people favoured K Chandrasekhar Rao, while 10.4 per cent preferred Jagan Reddy and 9.4 per cent, Chandrababu Naidu. 

The survey may or may not epitomize the ground reality, considering its small sample size. It is also not right to sit over a judgment on whether the poll outcome would match the survey result. Though the TDP has an undeniably strong and committed cadre base in both regions of Andhra Pradesh, whether Naidu will be able to buck up to impress the electorate in both regions that his fight for “equal justice” for both regions in the process of bifurcation is sincere and genuine becomes a moot point. 

Most surveys in the recent past put YSR Congress ahead in Seemaandhra region and the TRS in Telangana. Chandrababu Naidu himself said at a press conference on Friday that Jagan was “the happiest man” with the passage of the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, 2013 by the Parliament. 

Why should Jagan be happy? Is it because he can work with full focus to stay ahead in the race at the hustings, for his party “doesn’t exist” in Telangana region, as repeatedly suggested by Naidu himself? In asserting that Jagan is the happiest man, is Naidu conceding anything? Naidu is not notorious for making off-the-cuff remarks. He demonstrates his political legerdemain in assessing situations and expressing his standpoint, for he is not a political novice. 

Another important aspect now being discussed in the State is whether Naidu has shelved the idea of joining hands with the BJP in the upcoming elections. A senior Telugu Desam Party leader Kodela Siva Prasada Rao asserted that the question of a tie-up with the BJP was now ruled out. 

The TDP seems to be now convinced that any truck whatsoever with the BJP would be detrimental to its own original vote base in Seemaandhra region -- or Andhra Pradesh minus Telangana. Will the TDP rise from the ashes like the proverbial Phoenix?

No comments: