The shadow war between India and Pakistan is set to accelerate as the South Asian neighbours compete for strategic space in the rugged wind-swept mountains of Afghanistan, historically the buffer in the Great Game played out by last century’s imperial powers. Neither India nor Pakistan are imperial powers. Yet, Afghanistan is important for both. As the countdown begins for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces next year, a final big push is being made by Pakistan to roll back Indian interests from what is literally its backyard.
Added to this is the growing tension along the Line of Control, with reports of five Indian soldiers killed by “terrorists” dressed in Pakistan Army uniform on 6 August. With Parliament in session, the government came under attack with the BJP calling for bilateral talks to be scrapped. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif were to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next month.
Some of these problems could have been tackled amicably if India and Pakistan had made a fresh start. But peace efforts have been desultory and may not move forward, thanks largely to Manmohan Singh and the UPA government’s fear of Opposition criticism.
Instead, the bad blood and public anger is stirring up a veritable witch’s brew. None of this is good news for the region at a time when Afghanistan is in transition mode with no clear indication of how the future will pan out. Reconciliation talks have not made a mark so far.
The 3 August suicide attack on the Indian consulate in Jalalabad is perhaps an indication of things to come.
“This is not the first attack on Indian interests in Afghanistan, nor will it be the last,” says former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh, who is part of the Track-II diplomacy between India and Pakistan and a frequent visitor to Afghanistan. “Remember the deadly strikes in the Kabul mission in 2008 where we lost our defence attaché and a young ifs officer?”
That by all accounts was the handiwork of the Haqqani network, said to be close to Pakistan’s spy agency, the ISI. Eight months later, there was another attempt in 2009, but by now, the Indian embassy in Kabul had been fortified. While no damage was done, civilians milling around the Afghan interior ministry, which was next door, were the victims.
As the endgame approaches in Afghanistan, the proxy war is gathering momentum. Indian Ambassador Amar Sinha is said to be on the hit list. In the coming days, not just Indian diplomats but its nationals — doctors, businessmen, contractors and ordinary workers spread across Afghanistan — will be targeted.
This time too, a Pakistan hand is suspect. Much of the chatter on this is coming from the Afghan government. The Haqqani network is again a suspect though there are also reports of the Lashkar-e-Toiba’s involvement. However, an Afghan diplomat based in New Delhi said on the condition of anonymity: “Investigations are on. So far, there is no clarity as to who was behind the attack.”
The Indian establishment believes it is the handiwork of anti-India forces, with the blessings of the Pakistan military’s top brass. Hours after the Jalalabad attack, foreign ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said: “This attack has once again highlighted that the main threat to Afghanistan’s security and stability stems from terrorism and the terror machine that continues to operate from beyond its borders.” Though Akbaruddin did not mention Pakistan or the ISI, the reference to the terror machine that operates beyond the borders is self-evident.
Since Pakistan lost its eastern flank in the 1971 Bangladesh war of liberation, the military’s paranoia over being squeezed by India from both its eastern and western border is understandable. Its doctrine of gaining strategic depth in Afghanistan is to ensure that a pro-Pakistan political alliance is in place in Kabul. The military was able to do so when the Taliban was in power. India had to shut down its main mission in Kabul as well as its consulates. So pushing India back from Afghanistan is important for the generals in Pakistan.
Successive Indian governments have done much to repair ties with Afghanistan since the Taliban was thrown out by the US forces and the Northern Alliance in 2001. Beginning with its equation with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, India has succeeded in making a mark in Afghanistan. It has spent $2 billion in development projects, and reached out to touch the lives of ordinary Afghans. Having invested time, money and patience, New Delhi is in no mood to back off now.
“A proxy war between Pakistan and India has been going on in Afghanistan for many years and it as a new battleground for the two neighbours, whose political leadership are determined to improve bilateral relations,” says Pakistani analyst Mariana Baabar. “It takes on a whole new dimension as NATO troops start to leave next year. Suspicions between New Delhi and Islamabad have to take a back seat and they have to ensure that Afghanistan is a new subject during their dialogue. What the region does not need is carrying animosities to a new theatre of war.”
For a change, India was not caught napping. Intelligence reports had warned of such attacks on Indian interests in Afghanistan. In fact, an Indian team was in Afghanistan just before the Jalalabad attack to review security. The Afghan forces showed their mettle. Though no one in the Indian consulate was harmed, it led to the death of nine Afghan civilians, heartbreakingly many of them children.
Soon after the attack was foiled by the Afghan forces, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid was on the line to his Afghan counterpart Zalmai Rassoul in Kabul, thanking him for the valiant effort that saved Indian lives. New Delhi followed this up with some smart diplomacy.
Ambassador Sinha travelled to Jalalabad and met the families of the suicide attack victims and handed over a token assistance of $10,000 to each family. He also announced a reward of $20,000 for the security team on duty protecting the consulate and $2,000 for the soldier who killed one of the bombers. The local government will get $20,000 for treating the injured, while another $10,000 will be at the disposal of the authorities for repairing the damaged mosques.
Pakistan has always been nervous about the consulate in Jalalabad, which borders its Sind province. It has accused New Delhi of fuelling the Baloch rebellion and using the consulates to keep the fires burning. Pakistan has promised the US that it will do its best to facilitate Afghan reconciliation talks. “Indians have been sceptical of this and know that Pakistan will ask for a price for this. The price is shutting down Indian consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif, Kandahar and Jalalabad. Herat can remain, besides the embassy in Kabul,” says analyst Srinath Raghavan of the Centre for Policy Research based in New Delhi. But India is unlikely to oblige.
India and Pakistan’s rivalry in Afghanistan will spell doom for the region. Luckily, the stakes are too high for the rest of the world to allow this. So, in the coming months, there will be pressure by the US for the two sides to bury their differences.
When Manmohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif meet in New York, atmospherics will be good but it’s unlikely that either leader can afford to go beyond good resolutions. India faces an election next year and unless action is taken against the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the Congress will not take a leap of faith.
“India and Pakistan must talk, but don’t expect any dispute resolution,” says KC Singh, former secretary in the MEA. He feels that Sharif must first deal with his internal problems before he will be in a position to deliver on any of his commitments to India. However, if both sides can restrain themselves in Afghanistan, it would be no mean achievement.
