One of the cardinal rules of politics is never to count your chickens before they hatch. It is now clear that the Congress never realised the importance of this dictum and is now repenting. Its leaders, who projected the UPA as the “natural alliance of governance” till the other day, have suddenly lost their swagger and are now reconciled to the possibility of some of their most trusted allies turning spoilers.
The Congress admitted the disintegration of the UPA in Bihar when it said that it would be difficult to do business with the RJD. In a tit-for-tat, the Congress announced an alliance with JMM in Jharkhand leaving just two seats for the RJD. Retribution from Lalu Prasad is likely to be swift and the RJD chief appears set to announce an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP for Jharkhand as well.
Only a political greenhorn would have missed the signals. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has been maintaining that parties within the UPA and outside could gel into a combination after the elections. Citing the fragmented nature of the country’s politics, Mr Pawar has said on more than one occasion that existing political bonding could alter in the event of the two major parties failing to cross the threshold required for winning over allies.
The Congress correctly diagnosed it as an attempt to expose its soft underbelly. The party reacted with its trademark bluster saying that the UPA would remain the favourite vehicle for government formation. This bold assertion was no doubt prompted by BJD’s unilateral snapping of its 11-year-old ties with Congress’s main rival, the BJP.
But the fortunes of the Congress are swinging as wildly as the stock markets on a day of free fall. So far, Mr Yadav has been Sonia Gandhi’s most loyal backer. When others threw tantrums, he stood by her, even going to the extent of saying that none was more suited than her to lead the country. But the Union railways minister rammed in the point that he cannot be expected to align his political interests with that of Congress. He also made the biggest political statement about the Congress marginalisation in the Hindi heartland by allotting it a mere three seats. The Congress retaliated by announcing itself as the bigger player in Jharkhand. But Mr Yadav will not take it lying down and it could lead to a disintegration of UPA in Bihar and Jharkhand that together account for 54 seats.
The widening emotional chasm between the RJD and the Congress has come in handy for the Samajwadi Party. The SP has swiftly moved in with a proposal for an alliance with RJD. The two Yadav leaders have of late been cosying up to each other. This has dashed expectations of the Congress that the incompatibility between the two Yadavs would prevent any political joint venture in the cow belt.
The big picture must be worrying for the Congress. In states where it depends on the crutches that an ally provides, partners have virtually pushed the Congress to the edge. Barring Tamil Nadu where DMK has said that it’s willing to renew the 2004 contract, every other ally wants the marriage terms to be rewritten. And it is no secret that NCP’s chief aim is to cut the Congress to size in Maharashtra.
In what could further sharpen the faultlines within the UPA, the Centre has imposed the President’s rule in Meghalaya. The mentor of the dismissed government, PA Sangma, is sure to force the NCP to turn even more hostile against the Congress in this changed political scenario.
If an out of depth and demoralised BJP was the political screen saver the last week end, the characters are now beginning to swap places. The BJP may be friendless in the two key southern states — Tamil Nadu and Karnataka — but the alliances that it has worked out in other states have come without any baggage. While political parties have every right to feel hopeful, the events in the UPA once again show what usually follows hubris.
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