Recession in India: Challenges & Opportunities Galore

By Javid Hassan

The global economic recession has taken its toll on the Indian economy that has led to multi-crore loss in business and export orders, tens of thousands of job losses, especially in key sectors like the IT, automobiles, industry and export-oriented firms. It has also shaken up the investment regime, which is being restructured, with the telecom sector likely to be declared off-limits for foreign investors.

Although the next two years or more are expected to usher in a difficult phase for the national economy, there are silver linings still amid the dark clouds looming on the horizon. The stimulus package unveiled by the central government should boost exports, especially to the Gulf states, which are still awash in petro-dollars, even if the oil prices have plummeted from $142 to $42 within six months.

Restrictions on exports of food, textiles and construction material to the Gulf have jacked up the prices there. Easing on export curbs should be welcome news to some 30 million people in that region. The scope and size of the export market to Saudi Arabia, the biggest market in the GCC, will be discussed later in this article.

Before the crisis erupted, there were more than 1500 software firms in the country, while the employee base of the sector had grown to 553,000 (from 415,000 in FY 06). More than 1300 IT companies were operating in Bangalore alone.

This sector has been adversely affected by the global crisis—a fact acknowledged by Bangalore-based Infosys Technologies Co-Chairman, Nandan M. Nilekani. He believes that even though the tech sector would see the impact of the economic slowdown in terms of growth rate, the IT industry will continue to grow and recruit manpower.

Interestingly, his observation finds support from the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey which ranks India second after Peru in terms of the recruitment programme. The survey, which covered 33 countries, reveals that although the global slowdown will certainly impact the hiring plans of employers in India over the next three months, it has the second strongest hiring capacity globally, with a Net Employment Outlook of 19 percent.

This outlook represents a sharp decrease of 24 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 27 percentage points year-over-year. Of the 33 countries covered by the survey, employers in Peru have been found to be the most upbeat with Net Employment Outlook of 24 per cent. Peru is followed by India, Costa Rica, Canada, Romania, Colombia, South Africa, Australia, Poland, the United States and China. The slowest hiring activity is expected in Singapore and Taiwan.

As for the IT industry, Nasscom had initially projected a 21-24 per cent growth rate for the current financial year, but the software association revised it downward in the wake of the global financial meltdown. Nasscom will complete the ‘review process’ of the FY09 export growth targets, sometime in December.

Similar was the projection of Infosys, when it lowered its dollar revenue guidance for FY09 by six percentage points. It now expects revenue to be between $4.72-4.81billion. “There is a global scenario which is unprecedented and it will have an impact on everyone. But the IT industry has demonstrated time and again that it is resilient enough to deal with these challenges,” said a Nasscom spokesman.

But for now heads continue to roll in the IT sector. In February this year, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) had asked about 500 employees to leave due to non-performance. Patni Computer Systems (PCS) has already laid off around 400 employees, or nearly 3% of its 14,800 workforce, on the same ground, while IBM Corp. followed suit in the case of 700 freshers. Wipro, the country’s third largest IT exporter, is considering firing 3,000 employees over performance-related issues. However, this is yet to be confirmed by the company.

More trouble seems to be in store for this sector. This time the news is that the relatively liberal visa regime in the US that enabled IT services companies to send employees on client work is under review following the job losses in the US. The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), the visa controlling agency, is tightening the screw on screening and issuing L1 visas and L1 extensions.

L1s are three-year visas meant for intra-company transfers, with some 50,000 Indians estimated to be currently in the US on these visas. About a third of them are coming up for renewal this year for a further two-year extension.

Nasscom has said that the proposed legislation by the US House of Representatives to restrict the use of L1 visas by Indian companies will affect the Indian IT industry in the long term, as about 10 per cent of Indian software professionals in the US avail themselves of L1 visas.

Away from IT firms, the IT-Enabled Services sector may also face the crunch, since a majority of Indian IT firms derive 75% or more of their revenues from the US. Thus, if the Fortune 500 companies slash their IT budgets, Indian firms could feel the heat. The sector should review its priority and focus on product innovation (as opposed to merely providing services). If this is done, India can emerge as a major player in the IT products category as well.

As a result of putting all their eggs in one basket, developers, consultants, trainers, team leaders have all become victims of the recession facing the IT/Ites sector. A fresh entrant—the bloggers—are in for trouble as well. With corporate budgets getting trimmed, professional bloggers may be the next to come under the hatchet.

Advertisements, sponsored listing and ‘pay per post’ have been affected by the slowdown. For Pranav Dharma, a part-time blogger, the recession has shrunk ad contracts. “I was running an ad campaign on my blog for the past three months. When time came for extending the contract, the advertiser said they are re-evaluating the contract campaigns due to the slowdown.”

However, business process outsourcing firms believe they will be less impacted by the global crisis than their IT counterparts, since they are involved in facilitating day-to-day operations. Avinash Vashistha, MD of technology consultancy firm Tholona, says the slowdown impact on BPOs will be limited. “BPOs are about core transactions and day-to-day functioning and clients will find it tough to delay these projects or make cuts in them,” adding that applications support and maintenance and project implementation services of IT may be slashed by over 30 percent.

Currently, processing services account for 60% of the industry, while the rest comes from core services (business analysis, financial planning etc). Last year the ratio was 70:30 and it’s likely to be in the 50:50 range next year. Also, the share of voice-based services has fallen from 95 % two years ago to 80% now and is expected to slide further. India will not be much affected, since it accounts for only 5% of the global voice market.

Industry-wide indications after September are also uniformly gloomy. There are reports of significant declines in output of automobiles, commercial vehicles, steel, textiles, petrochemicals, construction, real estate, finance, retail activity and many other sectors. Exports fell by 12 percent in dollar terms in October, while core industries slowed to 3.4 % during the same month from 4.6 % a year ago.

Giving his assessment, Jasjit Sawhney, CEO, net4 India Ltd., told the SME Times: "The major impact of recession or economic slowdown is with the small exporters and importers in the country as most of them are facing the problem of heavy duties."

Continuing further, he observed: "The US slowdown will immensely hit the mid-sized IT companies and also the big players to some extent. On the higher end, you have scenarios where people are cutting back on contracts. They are reducing the fees per manpower in their contracts.”

A survey of 125 companies by the commerce department in New Delhi has revealed that Indian companies lost export orders worth Rs.1,792 crores during August-October 2008 and were forced to lay off 65,000 workers.

The manufacturing sector, especially the auto industry, has also sustained a severe hit. As a result, the global credit rating agency, Standard &Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded Tata Motors rating for the foreign market. The company witnessed a 30 % drop in sales in India compared to last year.

The manufacturing sector had been calling for action in this regard to cushion the recessionary impact. In the meantime, it has impacted the entire spectrum of the automobile industry. Dunlop India Ltd, for instance, asked all 1,171 permanent employees at its Sahagunj unit and 917 staffers at Ambattur (in West Bengal ) "not to report for work" for an indefinite period.

What's strange about this management move is that it is an 'informal directive' with neither suspension of work (mandating a notice period) nor a lay-off, that obliges the management to pay the basic salary and a portion of the dearness allowance. The Dunlop management, meanwhile, will pay each employee a monthly allowance to support their families.

As the company’s senior executive Pawan Kumar Ruia put it: "The tyre market is facing a slump due to the global meltdown, forcing us to take the decision. The Tatas have left Singur. We do not want to ruin our chances by operating the factory now. We could have announced a shutdown. But we didn't take that route. Instead, we are working on a revival package and have asked the workers to stay away for the time being."

The textile giant, VF-Arvind, has started releasing employees, especially from the imported brands section, as there are few takers. Around 80 employees have been pink-slipped under its downsizing programme. An offshoot of this impact is being felt on warehouses, which are being vacated due to inventory control.

Along with warehouses, other sectors of the real estate market have also tumbled, with property prices dropping by 10-15% in addition to various incentives that are being offered. For NRIs, this is the prime time to invest in the real estate market, which is bound to rally once it gets over the hump.

On the educational front, bank officials point out that there is no impact yet on the grant of loans for higher education. Students of IIM, IIT, medicine, engineering and other professional courses continue to receive educational loans repayable after the student has completed his/her course.

Foreign students, too, will stay put, since security measures are being beefed around hotels, prestigious institutes and other places frequented by foreigners. Countries from Southeast Asia and the West have also advised their nationals to consider deferring their visit to India till the situation improves.

In line with this policy, the Singapore government issued a temporary travel ban on schoolchildren coming to Bangalore for a leadership conclave. The Malaysian government has also cautioned its citizens against travelling to India for the time being. However, new educational projects could be on hold for a while, since the banks’ lending rates continue to be high despite the stimulus package.

The tourism sector has been affected, too. Hotels have already reported 20-25 % cancellation from international tourists who were booked to visit over the next one year. Airlines, including low cost carriers (LCCs), may lower their fares by 10-12 % to extend the benefit of lower fuel prices to the customers and rein in the sagging demand.

With hotel occupancy levels and room rates dipping by 20 % and 50 % respectively in just two weeks, the sector is clamouring for a substantial cut in luxury tax slabs. The industry also wants that the luxury tax on rooms be charged on the actual rates rather than on the printed rack rates. According to market sources, guests are paying 20-25% higher room rates because of this tax structure.

The reduced purchasing power of Indian consumers in the current situation has revved up competition among shopping malls. They now have to step up their ad spend along with discounts to lure consumers who have restricted their shopping list to essentials, such as food and other consumables. After all, the purchasing power of 350 million Indians cannot be glossed over. Together with the package of incentives offered by the government to kick-start the economy, good management practices and self-imposed check on profiteering, the retail sector can hold its own.

However, for the time being, the growth of this sector will be stunted as overseas investors will be on guard for two reasons. The financial meltdown has burnt a hole in millions of Indian pockets. With their shopping budget on a tight leash, one should not expect overseas malls to make forays into the Indian market anytime soon. The second important factor is that overseas retailers, especially from the US and other western countries, would not like to take the plunge given the fact that the terrorist attacks in Mumbai on selected targets were politically motivated.

All these factors will have to be weighed in by an overseas investor till the economic and security situation improves. The Prime Minister’s National Security Council (NSC) is coordinating efforts between various government departments to finalise draft legislation which is being piloted by national security advisor M K Narayanan. The thrust of this legislative exercise is to boost national security by restricting foreign investment in sensitive areas like ports, airports, defence equipment and telecom.

The proposed law will be drafted on the model of the Exxon-Florio Act of the US which arms the US government with powers to block acquisition of any American company by a foreign investor. This Act gained international attention during 2006 when Port Dubai’s attempt to acquire a majority stake in the US for ports management was blocked by the US Congress citing security reasons.

Prior to the terrorist attacks, India was in a comfortable position with Foreign Direct Investment flows shooting up by a whopping 124% during the first five months of 2008-09 to $14.6 billion. Despite the global financial turmoil, it is set to surpass the FDI target of $35 billion during 2008-09. “The country will achieve about $35-40 billion in the current fiscal. The first quarter has crossed $ 10 billion. Last year, it was $24 billion for the entire fiscal year,” a senior official in Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) said.

The sectors that attracted maximum FDI inflows in 2007-08 were services, telecom, housing, construction activities, real estate, electrical equipment, computer software and hardware. The year before, India ranked fourth after China, Hong Kong and Singapore as a major investment destination in Asia.

The situation on the ground has since changed in the aftermath of economic recession and the current security threat. The government has already unveiled a Rs.300,000 crore package to pump prime the economy with specific measures for various sectors.

This amount is to be spent on revitalizing stake holders such as exporters, housing, infrastructure and textiles. A four-percent cut in Value Added Tax has also been announced to help the corporate sector in general. This apart, additional allocation has been made towards various incentives for exporters, guarantee of export credit, full refund of service tax to foreign agents and refund of service tax under the duty drawback scheme.

Relief for exporters includes a 2% interest subvention up to March 2009 for pre- and post-shipment export credit for all exports. Additionally, a Rs.350-crore booster for schemes like Market Development Assistance (MDA) and Market Assessing Scheme has been granted to help exporters develop new markets. This will be applicable to all exporters. As a result of these measures, the Centre’s direct tax collection in November was Rs.10,347 crore against Rs.16,189 crore in the same month last year, a fall of 36 %.

Given the market turbulence that will grip the world economy in 2009, there is no prospect of a quick turnaround in India. Broadly, the 4% relief on ex-factory cost is likely to result in ex-showroom price reduction in the range of Rs.8,000 to Rs.45,000 for different passenger vehicles (cars and SUVs).

Similarly, prices of cars, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles are set to come down by around 3.5 percent due to duty cut announced by the government. Almost all the major manufacturers, including Maruti, Hyundai, M&M, Tata Motors, Ford, Skoda and TVS said they would be passing on the benefits of the reduced duty to customers immediately.

The techno-savvy group will also benefit as the IT hardware industry has decided to pass on the 4% across-the-board excise duty cut to consumers which will help bring down the prices of IT products like TFT monitors, printers and projectors as well as computers and notebooks.

With this, desktops and notebooks will attract 8% excise duty, while all other hardware equipment would attract 10%, according to MAIT executive director Vinnie Mehta.

In the construction sector, ACC Ltd., the country’s biggest cement manufacturer, slashed prices by up to Rs.5 on account of reduction in cement prices by 4 %. The demand for appliances, consumer electronics, apparel, and other products is still huge and can be tapped by adopting appropriate pricing strategies. This should be possible thanks to the 4 % cut in excise duty and subsidy on export credit.

Other measures in the offing include easy access to the credit market for exporters, textile manufacturers and farmers collectively to the tune of Rs.9,000 crore. Of the total outlay, a Rs.4,000 crore line of credit will be extended to the National Housing Bank (NHB) and a similar allocation for the Exim Bank. The remainder of the rescue package will be utilised for the relief of farmers and infrastructural projects.

Besides these measures, a public-private partnership (PPP) could be launched to tap the investment potential in various sectors. Health tourism is one of them. In the past, most of the patients coming to India were from the SAARC region. However, in the aftermath of Nov. 26 terrorist attacks, this catchment area will dry up necessitating a new market. There needs to be a shift in priority towards the Gulf states, with more focus on medical tourism combined with the pleasures of sun, sea and sand plus visits to spas and wildlife sanctuaries as part of the itinerary.

These nationals are already coming to India for manpower recruitment. Air-India and other airlines operating on the Gulf sector should coordinate with the Indian diplomatic missions in the Gulf states, so that applicants going there for visa endorsement could also be handed tourist brochure in Arabic along with their passports. This facility should also be available at the offices of national carriers of India and the GCC states.

It is important to remember that while upscale Gulf citizens prefer the US, western and some West Asian countries (UAE, Egypt and Lebanon) as their tourist destination, only the budget-conscious group comes to south Asia. Malaysia has emerged as a hot spot for Arab tourists due to its lush greenery, spas and overall picture postcard look, which they rave about.

Given the availability of talented professionals along with the added attraction of the cheap cost factor, a coordinated drive could go a long way in bringing more Gulf tourists to India, especially for health and eco-tourism. It is worth noting that whereas a heart valve replacement surgery would cost $10,000 in Thailand, $12,500 in Singapore, $ 200,000 in the US and $ 90,000 in Britain, in India it would just cost $8,000.

As for overseas investment, the remittance channels are beginning to diversify. Apart from FDI, third countries like Mauritius and Cyprus are serving as conduits for channeling foreign investment into India. Mauritius thus emerged as the top investing country in India during 2007-08, with inflows from there more than doubling to $1.6 billion from $578 million in 2006-07. The total FDI inflows into the country in April-June period amounted to $10.073 billion, nearly $1 billion more than the total in 2005-06.

Another major player was Cyprus, which became the eighth-largest FDI contributor to the Indian economy, up from the 14th slot in the list of top source countries a year ago. It has benefited from the European tax regime by becoming the favoured destination for facilitating FDI into India.

As recently as July this year, the IMF foresaw the world economy growing at 3.9 percent in 2009, advanced economies at 1.4 percent and developing countries at 6.7 percent. By early November (just four months later) these forecasts had been slashed down to 2.2 percent, minus 0.3 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. The official estimates of India’s GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2008/9 stayed above 7.5 percent, with future projections indicating the same growth trajectory.

According to the Executive Summary of Angel Broking’s “India Education Sector Report2008", “India’s GDP has grown at a compounded grate (CAGR) of around 8.5 % over FY 2003-08, growing at over 8% in four of the five fiscals. GDP growth in FY 2007 accelerated and came in at an impressive 9.6%. Even for FY 2008, India logged in GDP growth of 9%, commendable by any standards. This makes it a hat-trick for India’s GDP, which has now recorded in excess of 9% GDP growth in each of the last three fiscals.”

Yet, the report expresses dismay over India’s literacy rate of just 61%, ranking the country “a disappointing 172nd. In fact, there is a huge requirement of talent in the field of hospitality, IT services, retail, financial services and aviation, to name a few. We believe India will have to significantly gear up its educational infrastructure to meet this demand.”

In this context, an Indian Institute of Technology survey points out that every IIT alumnus has created 100 jobs and that every rupee spent on an IIT-ian has “created an economic impact of Rs 50 at the global level, half of which is India's share.” The study is a global Internet-based survey that attempts to gauge the impact of IIT-ians on the global economy across areas like entrepreneurship, scientific and technological achievement, social transformation, research, educational and business leadership.

But challenges still remain. One of these is the massive scale of corruption that has diverted crores of tax payer’s money into the pockets of corrupt politicians and officials. This has strained the economy, tarnished India’s image abroad, and sapped the investor’s confidence.

Another problem is the sluggish bureaucracy that taxes an investor’s patience to the hilt. There is no active single window clearance mechanism in place where business decisions could be expedited. Therefore many potential investors have been moving away to greener pastures in the country or outside. Bangalore, which once served as a magnet for investors due to its operational efficiency, among other factors, has nose-dived on several counts, including poor infrastructure, traffic bottlenecks, culture of corruption and casteism. It is losing out to Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu as the country’s IT hub.

If these challenges represent one side of the coin, there are opportunities galore on the other. The stimulus package that the Centre is offering to the state governments presents an exciting opportunity to the private sector to resume exports to the Gulf states as Indian exporters are being offered credit facilities.

For exporters from Hyderabad, now is the time to strike a deal in view of the incentives being offered. In this context, it is worthwhile considering the Saudi market which, unlike a major segment of the international market, still remains vibrant as it gears up for the expansion mode.

Right now, the growth areas are real estate, renewable sources of energy, especially solar, and seasonal market like pilgrimage, when nearly 2.5 million pilgrims become consumers of electronic, household and food items that are available at cheap prices. The immense market potential of the Haj season should not be underestimated, since the impact of recession will be felt at least over the next two years or more.

On the export front, Indian businessmen might be interested to note that Alshoula Holding and Bayt Al-Mal Investment, two major Saudi investment companies, signed in October this year an agreement with Awan Real Estate Investment & Development Company to execute an ambitious $ 2 billion real estate project in Riyadh for setting up a shopping complex in the Saudi capital.

Covering an area of 2.348 million square meters, the project will have 3,350 commercial shops and 1,380 housing units designed to meet the requirements of Saudi citizens. It will also have 97 palaces, while residents of these housing units will have access to recreational facilities.

According to Suleiman Al-Qamlas, chairman of Bayt Al-Mal, investment in the Saudi real estate sector is projected to increase in the coming years. He points out that Riyadh alone needs 5.5 million housing units by 2020, with annual requirement standing at 145,000 houses, while Jeddah needs 18,000 new houses annually. He estimates real estate financing in the GCC countries at about $750 billion and real estate loans at around $1.3 trillion.

Similarly, in the non-oil energy sector, new windows of opportunity are opening in the sun belt countries like Saudi Arabia which are among the sunniest of the lot, with temperatures shooting up to 50 degrees C during summer.

In March this year Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Nuaimi, went on record as saying that the country hopes to find its place under the sun as a solar power in addition to being among the top oil exporters. It has already set up a solar village near Riyadh for harnessing solar energy for heating and lighting purposes. With oil prices ruling currently at $42 bpd, down from a high of $147 bpd in July this year, Saudi authorities are seeking to diversify their energy base away from oil.

Such a course of action is also dictated by the need for illuminating homes in far-flung desert areas beyond the power grid. The other imperative is to provide power for small projects coming up in remote townships as Saudi Arabia strives to promote such units for extending the benefits of oil boom to the interior of the country. While solar firms have already sprung up in the Kingdom, there is space for others as well in this burgeoning market.

In this context, Surana Ventures Ltd of Hyderabad, the city’s new kid on the block in the field of solar energy, should stay tuned to new developments on the anvil. The company has begun production of solar modules in the 3 watt to 220 watt range with an installed capacity of 20 MW per annum. Set up in Hyderabad in February this year with an investment capital of around Rs.300 crores, the company is a joint venture between Surana Telecom & Power Ltd and Bhagyangar India Ltd.

Narendra Surana, Managing Director, Surana Group, points out that production of solar cells would begin in three-four months, now that module production has got under way. The Andhra Pradesh Industrial Infrastructure Corporation Ltd recently allotted 25 acres of land for the project within the Fab City, Hyderabad.

The export-oriented facility is coming up in a SEZ-designated area and will enjoy fiscal benefits. Around 10 acres of land will be utilized initially with the remaining area allocated for future expansion. Its joint venture partner, Eco Progetti from Italy, will supply a 19-mw solar photovoltaic cell production line, while a 38-mw module facility will be sourced from P. Energy SRL. It could contact the Economic and Commercial wing of the Indian Embassy in Riyadh by logging on to its website www.indianembassy.org.sa for customs duties on products exported to Saudi Arabia as well as other rules and regulations.

As for dealers in food and consumer items, Haj is the right time to export their goods to the Kingdom. To this end, they need to contact the Consulate General of India in Jeddah by logging on to its website, which contains useful information on doing business with Saudi Arabia. This is an exciting time of challenges and opportunities. Only those with a strong will, sound technological base and innovative solutions can ride out the crisis.