The Fermenting India

India these days seems to be in ferment. If one picks up a newspaper one gets hit by headlines that certainly do not bode well for the country, at least, not in its immediate future. While one can discern a severe churning taking place in the country’s social, political and economic life, the government, at the same time, is largely perceived to be drifting along.

Protests against governmental actions/inactions both, at the Centre and in some states have been raging for months. Tamilnadu in the South has witnessed an agitation against the Koodankulam nuclear power plant that is only few months away from attaining criticality. The pathetic fate of far-away Fukushima in Japan and its ill-fated victims have justifiably induced fear in the surrounding villages of Koodankulam. People in general have become resistant to the idea of nuclear power and fearful of the nuclear power plants.

Another anti-nuclear protest by villagers earlier this year in the idyllic Konkan region in Maharashtra’s Ratnagiri District against a mega Nuclear Power Park had boiled over for weeks and had even become violent. Acquisitions of fertile lands under an antique law for mining, industry and power – thermal or nuclear – in pursuit of double-digit GDP growth gave rise to agitations of farmers and tribal communities in several states. The government has been hard put to subdue them.

The country has also seen protests in the North-East, in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, as also in the Himalayan states of Himachal and Uttarakhand against construction of dams for irrigation and generating hydro-power. While people, especially rural and tribal communities, have become more alert about safeguarding their rights and livelihoods, the governments, both at the Centre and in the states have been tardy in shedding their autocratic attitudes and have failed to take people into confidence before conceiving projects that impinge on their wellbeing.

Today, with information being available at the remotest of outposts ordinarily people refuse to be taken for granted by governments and their functionaries. A decades-old movement for creation of the Telangana state (to be carved out of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh) has gathered strength and is continuing now for months with no solution in sight. The Congress Party which had merged the region with the then newly-created Andhra Pradesh more than half a century ago against the wishes of the locals and against its own better judgement has now been facing the music. With passions running high, life in the state and its capital, Hyderabad, is paralysed with considerable impact on it administration and economy.

The social activist Anna Hazare’s two successive fasts, with unprecedented country-wide support, for enactment of a strong “Janlokpal” (anti-corruption ombudsman) law and later the government’s capitulation are recent history. India Against Corruption (IAC), led by Hazare and his team, are still hitting headlines. It has decided to canvass against Congress candidates at the 2012 state polls if the Parliament reneged from its commitments given during its last session for legislating for a strong “Lokpal” – the reasoning being the Congress leads the coalition at the Centre.

Although the context might be different, IAC’s efforts of swinging elections away from the Congress remind one of the campaigns of The Tea Party in the US during the 2010 Congressional elections. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government’s first tenure appeared sedate until, of course, the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, insisted on signing the Indo-US Nuclear Deal even at the cost of losing support of one of his important allies – the Left – risking his government’s survival. The government did survive and win the “Confidence vote” only after the “cash-for-votes” scam exploded in the Parliament in 2008. The Congress-led ruling combine’s brazen efforts to soft-pedal investigations into the scandal invited a scorcher from the apex court. And yet, the trial that was hurriedly commenced, based on seemingly skewed investigations, appear to be farcical as none from among the beneficiaries – the Congress-led UPA government – of the scam has so far been hauled up. After IAC’s massive anti-corruption movement the government’s attitude appears somewhat brassy.

UPA I’s survival by dubious means has come to haunt it in its second avatar. All the scams that are currently hogging the headlines are of UPA I-vintage. The biggest of them all – allotment of 2G spectrum – saw a cabinet minister, a member of parliament (both of a southern ally) and a few corporate honchos into the jail, besides embarrassing the Prime Minister who tried to hide behind the nebulous “coalition compulsions”. He was, nonetheless, forced to act by an aggressive Supreme Court. Later, even the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) got into the act, putting the finger at the loss of incredible hundreds of thousands of billion rupees.

The relentless media exposes of scams of another few hundred thousand billion rupees during the run up to the Commonwealth Games in 2010 forced the Prime Minister into action to have it investigated by a former CAG. Having shot himself in the foot, he lost credibility. And, it led to a curious crisis of confidence that stalled governance and induced a policy-paralysis even as sycophants of Sonia Gandhi undermined his stature by repeated assertions about eligibility of her son to occupy the highest executive position.

Today, the busiest organisations are the courts, especially the Supreme Court, and investigative agencies like the Central Bureau of Investigation and other police outfits. While virtually every day there are reports of court orders pulling up a public organisation or an individual, every new day brings also the news of a big wig either being put in the coup or refused bail. A large number of politicians of different hues are in Delhi’s infamous Tihar Jail. While the Law Minister, strangely, feared for drop in investments with so many corporate heads in jail, the apex court was taken aback when warned by a government lawyer of destabilisation of the government if it went after high functionaries like the home minister, a case for whose prosecution contributing to the 2-G scam is also currently being heard.

A recent headline spoke of “scams, graft (are) hitting growth”. Indeed, GDP growth has slowed down. Scams and graft could well have been very important reasons. No less important has been the reason of inflation which has been biting the industry and the common man, the very aam aadmi, whom the UPA swore by. The prices have gone through the roof and what hurts the most is the food inflation that has moved beyond 10%. The declining value of the rupee has pushed a few more millions below the poverty line. And yet, the government unmindfully has sought to peg the poverty line at a ridiculous Rs. 32 .00 and Rs. 26.00 per day in urban and rural areas, respectively, fuelling fresh controversy.

None in the government seems to have bothered to enforce checks on the inflated prices of essentials like vegetables and food grains. While the prices of agricultural produce rule high squeezing the common man the farmers commit suicide and, ironically, the cartels and middlemen make their piles. Even, the middle classes have got the wrong end of the stick with repeated hikes in interest rates to combat the prevailing inflation, pushing, inter alia, housing and automobiles out of the reach of many.

Economic growth has, on one hand, been accompanied by growth in numbers of billionaires, enriched ministers and MPs/MLAs, rising numbers of private aircraft, luxury yachts and high-end luxury cars on the roads and, on the other, by huge numbers of discontented and resentful poverty-stricken, malnourished and hungry – by some estimates around 60 million (77% by the reckoning of the late economist Arjun Sengupta) – in rural and urban India. Jobs remaining scarce, petty and other crimes have shown an inordinate rise. Snatchings, thievery, rapine, kidnappings etc. have become common. Worse, while mafias stalk the honest and whistleblowers, murder and rape have registered a sharp rise. Security of life and property has become tenuous.

Polarisation in politics has bred acute intolerance for a contrarian view. Two prominent IAC activists were assaulted – one was beaten up on camera for holding views on Kashmir disagreeable to the extreme right and the other for canvassing votes against the Congress if it did not fulfil its commitment of legislating for a strong Lokpal. While unbridled pursuit of economic growth has made only the rich and the unscrupulous prosperous and happy, it has spread unhappiness and misery among a very large section of the people. At the same time, it has demolished the anchors of Indian society in a mad rush for money; the get-rich-quick syndrome is eating into its moral fibre. Ethical life in India today has been shoved on to, no, not the back seat, but the boot. Reversing this now well-established unholy trend might well be an impossible proposition.

Thoughts, Actions, Intentions, Outcomes

By Rajvir Patel

There is a Gujarati saying – Putra naa lakshan parnaa maa thi ney ne vahu naa lakshan barnaa maa thi. It translates that the future behavior and nature of a newborn can often be predicted from its first days in the cradle and that of a new daughter-in-law in a joint patriarchal Indian family, from the early moments when she steps into the home of the in-laws.

If one overlooks the nature of the patriarchal joint family Indian society, the adage is a decent predictor the future.

Another fable is that of a monkey and an alligator who become friends while dwelling on a tree on the river bank and the river. The monkey often tossed sweet berries into the river and the alligator learned to love the sweetness thereof. After some time the alligator offered the monkey a ride on his back along the river.

The initially hesitant monkey succumbed to repeated affectionate offers and accepted dependence and interoperability. When the alligator reached the middle of the wide river, he said to the monkey, “Since you eat these sweet berries all the time, your heart must be even sweeter”. The monkey being smarter than Manmohan Singh, promptly replied, “It is very sweet, but I left it back on the tree to prevent it from getting wet. Would you like to see it”? The alligator’s predatory nature triumphed over his guile and he said, “Sure, I wouldn’t mind even licking it to taste its sweetness. The monkey asked him to return to the bank and promised to show him the heart and let him lick it. As soon as the alligator reached the bank, the monkey jumped on to the bank and up the tree and sighed with relief.
The thoughts, words and actions of any agent can often be used to predict the correct outcomes of interactions between two or more parties. For what happens when idiotic puppet leaders act without thinking, and are incapable of figuring out intentions, see my article of a modified version of an old Hindu fable – Educated Fools and Illiterate Nemesis. Below are some examples in developmental embryology and international relations.

Lewis, Nusslein-Volhard and Wieschaus were given the 1995 Nobel Prize for Medicine for their work on genes controlling development. There are a set of genes called Hox genes which are arranged serially from head to neck to thorax to abdomen in an anterior to posterior order even on a chromosome. A gene named Hox-c8 determines the boundary of development between the cervical (neck) vertebrae and the thoracic vertebrae which have a rib attached on each side. A vertebral level where this gene is expressed develops as a thoracic vertebra with a rib on each side. Human beings have seven cervical (without ribs) and twelve thoracic vertebrae (with ribs). Since many Indian politicians are more mice though looking like men, it is not surprising that mice also have seven cervical vertebrae, but they have thirteen thoracic ones. Since Indian leaders sometimes are chickens, it is important to know that chickens have fourteen cervical vertebrae and seven thoracic ones (long neck, short body).

It so happens that the Hox-c8 gene is expressed exactly in the same distribution as the number of thoracic vertebrae. The gene is more or less identical in the chicken, mouse and man. All these animals have the same number of genes which are mostly similar, but their genes have different promotional and inhibition switches and are turned on at different times and sites giving a dessert (halwa or cake), salad and vegetable entree from the same carrot, with different spices added at different times. Occasionally in humans, a mistake occurs and the gene is expressed in the last or seventh cervical vertebral level and these persons have an extra cervical rib on each side. Oh incidentally, in some animals the Hox-c8 gene is expressed in all vertebrae due to a generalized mutation in the switches of all vertebrae. The result is an animal with all vertebrae having a rib on each side and the total number of vertebrae varying in number from individual to individual. If you guessed American Democrats have variable backbones, you are close. The answer is snakes and pythons. They are also venomous or crush their victims like your guess.

Knowing the thoughts, words or location of gene expression should alert a smart thinking person to intentions and outcomes. As the Latin saying goes “Premonitus premunitus”, forewarned is forearmed. In an arms race analysis, the Soviet Union was mortally scared after Truman nuked Japan. In fact one of his reasons for doing so was to warn the Soviets not to engulf more countries and extend the iron curtain. The Soviets by efforts and espionage got their own atom bomb in just a couple of years. American political hawks and scientists like Edward Teller, lobbied to get a fusion weapon (hydrogen bomb). The Soviets were aware of the effort and got their own hydrogen bomb shortly and much quicker after the Americans.

The Soviets then beat the US in the Sputnik satellite, but America’s efforts soon caught up and overtook them. It had more ICBMs than the Soviets and that is why Kruschev tried to put nuclear missiles into Cuba to counter the larger number of US missiles and those closer to Russia, based in Turkey. After that nuclear standoff, the Soviets vowed to and caught up with the US missile numbers on land. The US then led in nuclear submarines and the Soviets made a heroic effort to equal America as documented even in an American movie K-9, starring Harrison Ford.
Eventually, the two sides reached a second strike capability and achieved MAD (mutually assured destruction). Reagan with his star wars pushed the Soviets into breakup and the US on the way to the same. But madcap Bush Jr. Opted to renege on the ABM treaty and started building up a ballistic missile defense.

It is a major offensive not defensive weapon because it allows one side to neutralize and counter missiles attacking it, while leaving its own missiles intact and the other side vulnerable. No wonder Russia and China are upset. The reality is that experts have serious doubts about the effectiveness of a BMD system. This and the attack on Iraq and Libya explains why North Korea and Iran are going nuclear to counter the US and Israel (both for Iran and only US for North Korea). It also explains why India went nuclear to counter China and Pakistan went nuclear to counter India. India’s development of BMD is pushing Pakistan to develop or borrow from China, nuclear tipped cruise missiles, which are invulnerable to BMD because of their low altitude trajectory and short distance between Pakistan and India.

This is why India is more interested in Israeli BMD technology as Israel also faces hostile neighbors immediately adjacent, and needs to neutralize that threat. This also raises an important point about foreign policy and the conflict between principles and realpolitik. For decades after 1947, India under the stupid policies of Nehru tried to pander to its own Muslim minority and other Islamic states even though some of the first and most of the second constantly favored Pakistan on the basis of a common religion. As a matter of truth and justice, it supported the Palestinian cause. It took a long time before the fluorescent light in the minds of its leaders finally lit up and it played the Israeli card to improve its military strength and technology.

The problem India faces is the one that the US falsely applies to Iran by claiming that its government is fanatic and irrational and will nuke Israel or America. The real fanatic irrational and crazy ones are Pakistan, its government, armed forces and population, with its lighted nuclear missile replicas in major cities and suicide bombers and terrorists bent on dying and killing. A joke widely circulated on the internet describes a depressed suicidal American worker bankrupted by the economy and job loss, calling the suicide hot line for help. Unbeknownst to him, the local city government in the US has outsourced the service to a Pakistani call center. The depressed American tells the Pakistani psychologist that he wants to die by committing suicide. Instead of supportive sympathy, the American hears a chuckle and laughter and a query from Pakistan asking whether the American can drive a truck?

There is another US military strategy from which the world can draw worrisome conclusions. The US is buying hundreds of the newest Global Hawk reconnaissance and armed drones at 220 million dollars a piece. This is substantially more than the price of most of its current combat aircraft and almost equal to the F-22 price. These newer Northrop planes can be controlled from Nevada but need to take off near to the target zone, like the Pakistani airbase for Afghanistan and FATA, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for Yemen and Somalia. It is also developing a similar plane which can take off from a carrier or a ship, which could be placed in the Persian Gulf near Iran in case it is unable to get an agreement for bases in Afghanistan and Iraq. It already has long range stealth bombers at Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean. It is also spending nearly ten billion dollars a year to equip and maintain a JSOC (joint special operations command) force of over 60,000 which is currently carrying out night raids in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

These forces are of no use within the US or in Europe or in any war against a regular army of any nation. Thus it will be used to fight insurgencies and terrorists and thus mainly in the Middle East and North Africa. This explains the US strategy of a thousand foreign bases and lily pads. Any country whose neighbor has given the US such military facilities would be vulnerable to aerial assassination or assassination squads. Pakistan which has given the US such facilities is itself not immune from such attacks. India has nothing to fear from all this at present, but should be wary of a closer embrace and the risk of alienating Russia, which is helping it with the FGFA and nuclear ATV. India should be friendly with the US as the two have many common interests, but a suffocating embrace would only hurt India because the US is hell bent on world military dominance and its own caliphate, even at the cost of economic meltdown, bankruptcy and impoverishment of its own citizens.

A final example and analysis is that of China’s strategic foresight. While America was still reeling from a stalemated war in Korea following WW2, China smartly took over Tibet, betting that the US and Britain were unlikely to open another front in another war. By doing this it markedly increased its landmass, got a border next to Afghanistan and Pakistan. It made Pakistan cede a portion of Kashmir. By these actions it achieved a control over the headwaters of its own rivers and those of India and Pakistan (Indus), Bangladesh, India (Brahmaputra), Vietnam, Cambodia (Mekong), Burma (Irawaddy) and Thailand (Salween). Then when the US and the Soviet Union were involved in a nuclear standoff, it attacked India in 1962, knowing that they would be too preoccupied to help India. It then went nuclear in 1964 and got grandfathered as a nuclear state and NPT founding member, while foolish Nehru turned down the American offer to India for China’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

In timely fashion it abandoned and alienated the Soviet Union which was threatening it, by cuddling up to America under foolish Nixon. It used the new relation to build up a three trillion dollar reserve and convert America to a bankrupt debtor. It gave Pakistan arms and nuclear weapons to stunt India’s growth and ambition and now claims Arunachal Pradesh, gives separable visas to Indian Kashmiris, challenging India’s claim to Kashmir.

It is going to build a rail line to Gwadar from Sinkiang and may develop a string of pearls naval bases to surround India. It has begun deep ocean mining in the Indian ocean. It has built rail lines right up to the Indian border and even in Nepal. Our idiot leaders did not even build roads or rail lines in the northeast and failed to maintain airbases along the Chinese border. Their insanely idiotic strategic thinking was that such roads or rails would allow a Chinese offensive to thrust even deeper into India after a successful invasion, as they had failed to adequately provide defensive capability to our armed forces. The current UPA government delayed purchase of aircraft, ships, tanks and instead spent money on enriching the ministers. Our foolish present prime minister announced that China’s building of a dam on the Brahmaputra would not hurt India, as the fluid in his brain would more than compensate for any water loss. Furthermore the prime minister wants to concentrate on appeasing Pakistan by open borders, to ease any inconvenience to those terrorists who desire to blow up the cities of India.

In the meantime China is flush with money to rescue the sinking periphery of Europe and US economy, buy technology and hack and steal what it cannot buy (recent McAfee report) and it is time for the bamboos to flower in Mizoram (when every 48 years there is a rat proliferation induced famine).

The modified version of the eighth verse in the fourth chapter (adhyaya) of the Gita – "paritranaya pakistananam (sadhunam) vinasaya ca murkham (dushkrutam) adharma-samsthapanarthaya (no a) sambhavami yuge yuge" - Whereas the original Verse from the Gita reads as: "paritranaya sadhunam vinshaye cha dushkrtaam dharma-samsthapanarthaya sambhavami yuge yuge".

Today, Solar Power is the Best Bet

By M H Ahssan

Recently we had a 16-hour power outage commencing from midnight until 4.00 next afternoon. The inverter saw us through the hot and stuffy night but it, too, lost its energy by the next afternoon. There was no alternative but to bear the acute discomfort of an air-less hot afternoon. Outages are frequent but this was out of the ordinary.

Lazing around through the day drenched in sweat in the sweltering heat my mind wandered and sauntered down the years that have gone by. In the early 1940s I used to be a child in Gwalior which was the capital of the eponymous princely state. Although we had electricity in our rented house there were many others in the neighbourhood, including that of a minister, which did not. Apparently, even then it took quite a bit to have one’s house electrified. Living off the arterial road, we still had gas lamps to light up our rather broad, generally, deserted lane. Every evening a man would trudge down the lane with a ladder on his shoulders to light up the lamps mounted on somewhat low posts. He would repeat his trip in the early mornings to put out the lights. The lane got its electric streetlights much later.

Apart from lighting up the houses and streets electricity had very little non-industrial use in those days. Hardly any electrical appliances were available for domestic purposes except, of course, fans – table or ceiling. Right through the ‘40s, I recall, we managed the hot Gwalior summers with two table fans in combination with thick khas curtains with water dripping on them through perforated pipes. Radios, symbol for the well-to-do then with their roof-top antennas, were very few. The per capita carbon footprint was, naturally, negligible.

As I grew older radios became ubiquitous, so much so that they would be raucously blaring out film songs from paan shops. Even during the first few post-Independence decades of “Hindu rate of (economic) growth” (of around 3%) the middle classes were inflating, though tardily, and electrical equipment and appliances appeared in the markets to feed their demand. Soon electric kettles, hot plates, mixer-grinders to refrigerators made their appearance for making things easier in the kitchen. For the living rooms there were radios, of course, followed by electrically operated turn-tables, record-changers, even radiograms and tape (spool) recorders. To meet the exigencies of the weather there were either heaters or coolers, even an occasional air conditioner.

All these were confined to a very thin upper crust of the society – the rich and upper middle classes. Liberalisation of the economy in the early 1990s brought about a sea change. Not only MNCs descended in the country in large numbers, transfer of modern sophisticated technology also took place. The rapidly expanding middle classes accessed a whole new range of electrical appliances known as “white goods” and luxury items at prices that were competitive owing to the phenomenon of “globalisation”. What were confined to a small segment progressively came within the reach of a much larger section of the population. As a result, electricity today doesn’t simply light up the houses; it runs kitchens, helps in washing clothes, crockery and utensils, cools and heats the houses, entertains the family and provides 24X7 connectivity. No wonder, the per capita carbon footprint rose from 0.8 in 1990 to 1.3 in 2006 and yet nowhere near the footprint of giants like US which was 32.8 in 2006.

The veritable explosion of the middle classes and the accompanying growth of industry and commerce preordained a rise in demand for power. The supply, however, could never match the demand making shortages endemic. The country currently lives through a regime of extensive power cuts and prolonged outages. All talks of sufficiency in the near future are misleading as, firstly, there are not enough power projects in the pipeline and, secondly, in the current times of faster economic growth demand is always likely to outstrip the supply.

The problem is likely to get compounded as environmental considerations may inhibit the country’s efforts to install many more coal-fired power plants unless it is able to, miraculously, find a cleaner thermal power technology. Similar considerations may hamper development of hydro power. Already there are protests, for example, against proposals for scores of hydro-power projects in the states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh. The current government seems to be banking on nuclear energy. That too carries its own rather heavy baggage. Apart from the long gestation, not only there are concerns relating to security of the plants, there would also be difficulties in locating safe sites for disposal of the nuclear wastes.

So far coal has been the main source of our energy. Evidently the country has to now go after renewable energy in a big way. Among the renewables are solar, wind, tidal and biomass. However, for reasons that are obvious, solar power holds the key and could be the best bet for India. With about 300 clear and sunny days in a year India’s theoretical solar power reception just on its land area is enough to produce energy that could be a thousand times greater than the likely demand in 2015, even if conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules is pegged at a modest 10%.

Currently solar energy in the country works out to merely 0.4% of the total energy produced. The grid-interactive solar power as of June 2007 was merely 2.12 MW. Government-funded solar energy in India in 2005 accounted only for approximately 6.4 megawatt. However, the generation is disintegrated for applications that are mostly off-grid and petty in nature like street-lighting, water-heating, solar lanterns and so on.

Since the potential is enormous what is now required is a huge push for solar power generation that can be integrated, at least, with localised and regional grids. It is said that more energy falls on the world's deserts in six hours than the world consumes in a year. Africa's deserts receive enough power not only for Africa and Europe, but for the whole world. Hence, the Thar Desert with its locational advantages could become India’s solar-energy hotspot

Instead of entirely depending on the photovoltaic technology, which proves to be costlier unless subsidised like in Europe, concentrating solar (thermal) power needs to be given a big push. There are varied technologies that produce energy by concentrating the light rays onto a small surface to generate heat and use that heat to drive a turbine, which in turn drives a generator. Experts believe solar thermal power can play a significantly important role in meeting the yawning demand-supply gap (claimed to be 12% but actually is much more) for electricity.

While the Clinton Climate Foundation is mulling huge solar power initiatives of around 3000 MW each in the Rann (Gujarat) and Thar (Rajasthan) the Centre has launched the Jawaharlal Nehru Solar Mission. Mercifully, the Mission proposes, apart from striving for global leadership in solar manufacturing, to launch a major R&D programme in solar energy – a crying need for the country, given the availability of surfeit of knowledge-workers.

According to Americans, solar power is no longer an “eco-fantasy”. One wishes we Indians could ape Americans, especially the Californians, at least in respect of production of green energy. Power-starved as we are, like the Californians were in 1970, we need to act like the state by inducing the consumers to use less power, legislating for energy-efficiency in buildings, appliances or whatever, to foster entrepreneurial spirit among the industrialists and require the utilities to provide one-third of their power from renewables by 2020.

Given the circumstances, that shouldn’t be too much to ask for!

Assessing China’s Future

By Rajinder Puri

Most China experts agree that China is changing. But there is little agreement about how it will change. Change in China is compelled by several factors. The one-child policy dictated by the government has led to a demographic imbalance with fewer than desired young people from whom the labour force is recruited. Also, better education and more exposure to global trends has created anger and frustration among workers whose parents were very different – hard working and unquestioning – that helped create China’s economic miracle.

The first sign that China’s workers were getting restive came about from a suicide that was highlighted by New York Times. The dead body of a 19-year-old worker, Ma Xiangqian, was discovered. Investigation revealed that during his last month he worked three times the legal limit of overtime. His work conditions and treatment meted to him were horrendous. Subsequently a dozen other suicide cases among workers occurred. Analysts believe that China’s notoriously cheap and ill treated work force that allowed Beijing to exploit it as a goldmine has ended. Already wages have gone up and are expected rise further. This means goodbye to China’s previous virtual slave labour that attracted foreign investment and enabled multinational corporations to rake in huge profits.

Also, higher wage raises production costs to push up prices of most consumer goods that China exports. Presently Chinese economy runs on its exports. If higher priced exports shrink Beijing must find alternative markets to sustain its economy. The increased wages of workers are not sufficiently high to make them consumers who can replace export markets. And according to experts the workers will remain inadequate consumers for one more decade.

This then is the economic challenge that Beijing faces. But China’s rulers are wisely attempting to convert this challenge into opportunity. Beijing announced a raise in minimum wage to placate the growing assertiveness of workers. This will stimulate domestic consumption, make China less dependent on low-priced exports, and help reduce the dangerous gap between the rich and the poor. One does not see any insurmountable challenge to China’s economy.

The challenge however will be political. As the gap between the rich and the poor, however gradually, continues to narrow, as workers and peasants increasingly question authority and assert their rights, as even a stifled Internet makes dissent more vocal, China will have to soften its system. This is where there could be a few hiccups. Here again, problems in the Communist Party government appear open to solution.

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao belong to an older generation and were earlier members of China’s Communist Youth League that was very active during China’s infamous Cultural Revolution. Even between Hu and Wen there is a distinct difference of nuance. The latter was personal aide to Zhao Zhang who was pro-democracy and strongly opposed the Tiananmen massacre. Hu on the other hand was selected by Deng Xiaoping to administer Tibet which he did with uncommon ruthlessness to lay the foundation of Tibet’s current bitterness. Yet, Hu and Wen seem to get along well enough.

However, soon both will be replaced by a younger leadership. The new leaders are expected to be Xi Jinping and Zhou Youngkang. Both are described as “Princelings”, the progeny of the Communist elite that participated with Mao but disagreed with his hard line approach. Both Xi and Zhou through their public pronouncements hold out hope of a more soft approach.

The problem arises not from China’s Communist Party but from its army. Much before western governments or media publicly recognized the problem this scribe had repeatedly pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was acting as the super boss dictating foreign policy to the Beijing government. Unfolding events have brought this out more in the open. Now it is widely acknowledged that the civilian government and PLA most often do not see eye to eye. And when differences arise, it is the PLA that prevails. As Carnegie Endowment China specialist Michael Swaine was quoted: “Many, if not all, officials of the US government believe the current situation is one in which the military has the bit in its mouth and is taking the lead in the issue (of foreign policy)…the Communist Party and the foreign affairs apparatus is not terribly happy about it, but is going along with it.”

According to reports the Princelings have begun interacting with younger elements of the PLA to modernize and professionalize the army. If they do not succeed in taming PLA China could implode. Taming PLA may not be easy. Witness how North Korean army recently killed three Chinese civilians. Could this have been done by defying PLA? Is that why Beijing’s reaction was so low-key?

The litmus test of a new soft China will manifest from how Beijing handles Arunachal Pradesh, as distinct from the rest of the boundary dispute. In 2005 Beijing gave written assurance that it would not disturb settled populations on the border. Later it reneged on its word. One must also watch how Tibet and Xingjian are handled. Only an inflexible self defeating approach can explain Beijing’s hostility to Dalai Lama despite the latter’s conciliatory statements.

The quicker China changes, the faster it will grow. Will Beijing’s new leaders successfully introduce change? I believe they will. Ultimately China is too big, the stakes are too high, the survival instincts of its smart leaders are too strong, to allow China to implode. But transition to softer China may not be entirely smooth. Soft China would of course promote its hegemonic ambitions more effectively. Beijing, after all, replicates Hitler’s model minus anti-Semitism.

Beijing Fails Korean Test

By Rajinder Puri

Last Sunday in the closing news conference of the trilateral China-Japan-South Korean summit in South Korea, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said: "The urgent task for the moment is to properly handle the serious impact caused by the Cheonan incident, gradually defuse tensions over it and avoid possible conflicts." He was referring to the unprovoked attack and destruction of the South Korean vessel by North Korea. From this it became evident that the Chinese government was unable to either take a hard line against Pyongyang or curb its adventurism. The North Korean action, like several earlier unilateral actions taken by it, did not serve any visible interests of Beijing. Yet, North Korea continues to have its way. Why and how?

For many years circumstantial evidence provided one obvious reason. The government in Beijing is not in full command of its policies. On many occasions it has had to bow down before the dictates of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). To substantiate it this scribe drew attention to various events. On numerous occasions the utterances of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao were rubbished by developments emanating from official sources in Beijing.

One example was provided by Beijing overturning its written commitment given in 2005 to not disturb settled populations for resolving the boundary dispute by later claiming Arunachal Pradesh. Continuous conflicting signals from Beijing indicated that either the Chinese government was brazenly and crudely hypocritical, or that its authority could be challenged from within. The first possibility was ruled out because given Chinese tradition of keeping face no President would willingly allow his own commitments to be rubbished.

The second projection offered by this scribe, that Beijing was thwarted by PLA, was confirmed by America’s prestigious journal, Foreign Affairs. In its May-June 2007 issue two China experts, Bates Gill and Martin Kleiber, analyzing China’s flip-flop policies wrote: “Put bluntly, Beijing’s right hand may not have known what its left hand was doing. The PLA (proceeds) without consulting other key parts of the Chinese security and foreign policy bureaucracy.”

At the global level the most glaring evidence of Beijing ’s impotence in dealing with the PLA is provided by successive actions of the North Korean government. North Korea is the world’s most repressive regime. It can barely feed itself. By stopping food and fuel supplies Beijing can bring North Korea to its knees in less than a week.

Yet, Pyongyang has repeatedly defied President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Earlier it conducted a nuclear test against the expressed wishes of Beijing. It subsequently fired a missile dangerously close to Japan as provocation. On both occasion Beijing could only helplessly wring its hands. How can impoverished North Korea boast of advanced military power and nuclear technology without outside support? From where does it derive its power to defy the leaders of the Chinese government? The obvious inference is that it derives its clout from the PLA. North Korean President Kim Jong II is running a regime that parallels the former Cambodian regime of Pol Pot. The PLA was Pol Pot’s patron and mentor. The overwhelming evidence suggests that PLA controls North Korea.

Despite this, western media and governments keep alive the fiction that North Korea is an in dependent entity outside Beijing ’s control. This hypocrisy arises no doubt from the West’s economic entrapment by China. America has repeatedly failed to assert itself with Beijing on the North Korean question.

North Korea deliberately provoked Japan by firing a rocket along its borders. After that on April 6 2009 this scribe wrote: “The US and Japan had warned Pyongyang that the rocket would be shot down if fired. The rocket was fired. Nothing was done to stop it… North Korea was really testing long-range ballistic missile technology that could be used to carry a nuclear warhead to as far as America… all that Obama could do was to criticize North Korea’s test and propose a summit in Washington to ratify a ban on nuclear testing. He said: "I state clearly and with conviction America 's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”

President Obama’s response was so pathetic that America can be written off as far as dealing with Beijing is concerned. The current standoff with North Korea suggests that President Hu Jinatao and Premier Wen Jiabao are equally impotent in dealing with North Korea because the ultimate power in China continues to flow from the barrel of the gun held by PLA. Therefore Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his misty eyed colleagues who seek ever closer economic and cultural ties with China need a reality check. Until the Beijing government gives visible proof that it can exercise its authority over the PLA, it is foolhardy to trust China . The relationship between the Beijing government and PLA is exactly like that between the Pakistan government and its army. Indeed, it is more likely that Islamabad will eventually prevail over the Pakistan army than there is of Beijing overcoming PLA.

Life has new meaning in the Himalayas

By Raja Murthy

An intrepid tribe of scientific Indiana Joneses has unearthed a remarkable treasure trove of unknown species in the eastern Himalayas, marking one of the biggest-ever series of discoveries of new life forms on Earth.

In a search from 1998 to 2008 that covered the eastern Himalayan regions of India, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet, scientists found 353 new species - including 242 plants, 16 amphibians, 16 reptiles, 14 fish, two birds, two mammals and 61 invertebrates.

The high number of new species found in one sub-region suggests a call for increased investment to learn and care more about terrestrial life forms - before spending billions looking for extra-terrestrial versions in Mars and beyond.

With the major success of the biological brand of Indiana Jones in the eastern Himalayas, the region ranks among the top of famous biological hotspots among 200 globally designated areas rich with animal and plant life, such as Borneo in Asia and the California Floristic Province in North America.

A World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report released on August 10, titled "Collision of Worlds - New Species Discoveries, Eastern Himalayas", gave more details of the fascinating finds over the past decade.

Star discoveries included the leaf deer (Muntiacus putaoensis) which is now the world's smallest deer, standing 60 centimeters to 80 centimeters tall and weighing about 11 kilograms.

Other significant recent finds included the primate Arunachal macaque (Macaca munzala) that is the first new monkey species found in over a century, and a brightly colored bird named the Bugun Liocichla (Liocichla bugunorum) that an Indian astronomer and bird-watcher Ramana Athreya first spotted in 2006.

The discovery of the Arunachal macaque, for instance, was most significant, say scientists. The macaque, a type of monkey, was named after India's Arunachal Pradesh state where it was found. Finding new mammal species, especially primates - the order of beings that include lemurs, apes, monkeys and, allegedly, us humans - is ranked high in the "very rare" list among scientists worldwide.

"The Arunchal macaque is also one of the highest-dwelling primates in the world, and certainly of all macaques, occurring between 1,600 meters and 3,500 meters about sea level," said the WWF report.

The biological exploring of the the eastern Himalayas included the Chinese botanist duo of Yuan Yong-ming and Ge Xue-jun, who discovered the blue diamond impatiens flower in Medog, Tibet, a remote region nearly 1,000 meters above sea level and 100 kilometers from any roads.

The blue diamond impatiens (Impatiens Namchabarwensis) was named after the remote Namcha Barwa canyon where the Chinese duo first spotted it. Growing to 60 centimeters in height, it can blossom all year and its petals dramatically change color according to season. It sometimes appears beautifully blue during cool weather and then turns purple, as if angry in hotter temperatures.

Biologists Yuan and Ge found this highly endemic (meaning region-specific) marine-blue flower in 2005. They had determinedly plunged into the bowels of the Namcha Barwa canyon, a gorge nearly 250km long and with some of its areas nearly twice as deep as the Grand Canyon in the US.

More such fascinating floral life forms could be waiting to be discovered in the Himalayas, for instance in the Valley of Flowers in India's Uttaranchal state.

The Himalayas, the world's largest range of mountains, is already designated home to an estimated 10,000 plant species, 300 mammal species, 977 bird species, 176 reptiles, 105 amphibians and 269 freshwater fish.

More famously, the eastern Himalayas also hosts the highest population of the Bengal tiger and the one-horned rhino in the world, two majestic beasts facing extinction thanks to human greed and foolishness.

The near-mystical snow leopard, too, prowls this region. Myth has it that the Yeti, the un-abominable snowman, resides somewhere in a penthouse cave in the Himalayas.

Much life already teems in the Himalayas. "The world's northern-most tropical rainforests can be found in the eastern Himalayas and nearly half of the flowering plant and bird species known from India," confirms the WWF report "Collision of Worlds". "The plant life of Arunachal Pradesh is considered among the most diverse in the world, ranking second only to Sumatra in Indonesia and greater than Borneo, Brazil and Papua New Guinea."

The title "Collision of Worlds" refers to the creation of the 3,000-km "Himalayas", the word meaning "abode of snow" in the ancient Indian Sanskrit language. The Himalayas arose from a mighty collision of two continental plates - the chunk of earth containing India crashing into the rest of Eurasia - some 50 million years ago.

The collision of the two "worlds" was so emphatic that the pressure is still being felt 50 millions years later. Geologists say the Himalayas continues to grow taller into the skies.

Inevitably, the 30-page "Collision of the Worlds" report listing discovery of so many life forms - in so brief a period in just one region of the Himalayas - makes one wonder how many more life forms await discovery in the rest of the land and water of planet Earth.

Oceans, for instance, from where the mighty Himalayas arose, cover about 70.8%, or 361 million square kilometers, of the Earth's surface. What strange and wonderful creatures do the oceans of the world hide?

"There are more species of animal in the deep sea than beetles in the rainforest," according to Dr John Copley, a deep-sea biologist in the National Oceanography Center, Southampton, quoted in Britain's Telegraph newspaper in its May 11, 2009, edition.

An intriguing hint of what incredible and mysterious life forms lurk in watery depths comes up in deep-sea exploration projects such as HADEEP, in collaboration with the University of Tokyo.

Funded by the Nippon Foundation in Japan since 2006, and by the British Natural Environment Research Council since 2007, HADEEP is the Indiana Jones of the vast ocean depths. The project uses deep-sea machines, or "landers", carrying high-definition video cameras that can operate at ocean depths where no human can survive.

At depths where the mountain of water above is equivalent to the pressure of 1,600 elephants standing on the roof of a small car, HADEEP machines - with their roof made not of glass, but a sheet of sapphire - produced footage that stunned scientists.

They expected to find little or no life at ocean depths of 11,000 meters, a depth vertically more downwards than Mount Everest in height, where there is little oxygen and light for life forms to survive. Yet they found this ocean depth awash with life.

"We got some absolutely amazing footage from 7,700 meters," project leader Alan Jamieson, aboard the Japanese research ship Hakuho-Maru, said in a media release dated October 7, 2008. "More fish than we or anyone in the world would ever have thought possible at these depths."

The incredible life forms included the black dragon fish that emits infra-red light. Another strange creature of the deep, the spookfish, also called barreleye - because its eyes can turn through 90 degrees - has a transparent skull through which its glowing green brain can be seen throbbing.

How many life-filled Himalayas lie in ocean depths? The 353 new species found in the past decade in the eastern Himalayas finds awesome perspective in the "Census for Marine Life", a decade-old global network of researchers in over 80 countries that is studying life in oceans.

The census, a first-of-its kind project undertaken by the Washington-based Consortium for Ocean Leadership, plans to release "the world's first comprehensive census of marine life - past, present and future" in 2010.

Involving an astonishing number of over 400 governmental and private organizations worldwide, the Census for Marine Life is one of the most significant and least-known projects in the world.

Its participants include the New York-based Alfred P Sloan Foundation, Google, the Cousteau Society, the National Institute of Oceanography of India, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, the European Commission, the National Geographic Society, Stanford University, the US Army Corps of Engineers and the World Wildlife Fund, Canada.

Biologists have already identified 1.5 million terrestrial plants and animals in the 23% of land that forms the Earth. But if an average of 30 new life forms is being discovered in one sub-region of the Himalayas, how many more unknown millions of remarkable creatures share our land space?

The remaining 73% of watery Earth hosts a confirmed list of 230,000 species of marine animals, the number a mere fraction of what scientists expect to find in the deep. They estimate a mind-boggling 10 million undiscovered species living in the oceans, undetected perhaps for millions of years. The number might as well be 100 million, given the vast ocean depth terrain.

Vast underwater oceanic mountain ranges, also called sea-mounts, number in the tens of thousands and offer secluded places were it may take centuries of evolved high-technology scientific equipment to detect life forms.

For instance, the deepest place on the surface of Earth is under ocean waters. It's called the Mariana Trench, near Guam in the Pacific Ocean, east of the 14 Mariana Islands, at 11"21' north latitude and 142" 12' east longitude, and near Japan. Scientists say that if Mount Everest were placed in the deepest part of the trench, there would be 1.6 kilometers of water above it.

The "Collision of the Worlds" report and the Census for Marine Life project strongly indicate how many more millions of life forms exist. Sadly, if the endangered Asiatic elephant, the Bengal tiger and the one-horned rhinoceros could hire public relations agencies, they might warn these undiscovered, exotic species to stay hidden from humans.

CRUISES - River Rhapsody

By M H Ahssan

That a river can be a pleasure ground of activities was discovered as early as 19th century when Jerome K. Jerome and his two friends took a leisurely ride down river Thames, vividly depicted in his famous book Three Men In A Boat, giving an iconic status to the simple boating pastime. Boats have now been replaced by exotic cruises. In fact, river cruises score over ocean liners because they sail more into the heartland. Besides, river cruises are more affordable, and offer five-star comfort. Here’s an insight into some of the best international and domestic river cruises...

Global Waters
Exploring Egypt can be any traveller’s dream. How about living the dream by sailing across the Nile? Sounds mystical, doesn’t it? Well, one can explore the magnificence of the Egyptian civilisation and its architecture by cruising down River Nile. The cruise offers a stay of three, seven or eight nights and covers the cities of Cairo, Giza, Aswan, Kom Ombo, Edfu and Luxor. Tourists can explore the temple of ancient Thebes in Luxor, go for an excursion to the valley of the kings where king Tutankhamen rests ensconsed as a mummy, take a camel ride at Giza to visit the pyramids and see the sights around the High Dam at Aswan. One can also opt for the traditional wooden sailboat, Felucca, but it is a slower option than the luxurious motor cruise. Either way, sailing the Nile to unravel the mystery of Cleopatra, the pharaohs and pyramids is a breathtaking experience.

Similarly, there can’t be a better way to explore Germany than by sailing on the rhine. And it is not just the cruise itself but the picturesque cities that it touches that makes the journey an unforgettable experience. On an eight-day tour, tourists can float through Amsterdam and Kinderdijk (Holland), Cologne, Koblenz & Rüdesheim, Heidelberg, Speyer, Strasbourg and Breisach (Germany) and Basel (Switzerland). Some cruises take a detour and sail through Koblenz (Germany), at the convergence of the Rhine and Moselle rivers. The castles and the black forest in Germany, windmills and canals in Holland, the artworks of Pablo Picasso in Switzerland are the other attractions that this river cruise offers. Not to mention the local wines and cuisine enroute.

Some of south-east Asia’s most intriguing cities such as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam can be explored on the Mekong river cruise. An eight-day Mekong river cruise takes travellers along Ho Chi Minh, Cai Be, Sa Dec, Tan Chau, Phnom Penh, Kampong Cham and Tonle river area. Like the other cruises, this one too offers the option of either a three, eight, 10 or a 13-day tour. One can visit floating markets, go ashore to visit the French Gothic Cathedral and colourful port area of Cai Be, resplendent with its colonial buildings, flower gardens and local rice paper manufacturers, explore the pre-Angkorian temple of Wat Hanchey dating back to the 8th century in Kampong Cham, or just laze around in the peaceful surroundings of the Asian waterway.

Home Calling
Exploring India through waterways can be really exciting — more so if the river is the mighty Brahmaputra.

Starting from Tibet through Arunachal Pradesh, Brahmaputra flows across the Assam Valley through Dibrugarh, Neamati, Tezpur, Guwahati, and finally enters Bangladesh to join the river Padma before reaching the Bay of Bengal. The river cruise on Brahmaputra, run by an Indo-British joint venture, is an excellent way to explore the stunning beauty of the north-east. The cruise offers a choice of four, eight or ten night tours.

An eight-night tour begins at Guwahati, and sails upstream to Kurua, Ganesh Pahar, Orang National Park, Tezpur and Kaziranga. A 10-night tour includes visits to Majuli Island (Asia’s largest river island), Sibsagar and Dhansiri Mukh.

For those interested in exploring the cultural riches of India, we recommend cruising along the Ganga. Beginning from Kolkata, the cruise travels upstream to Varanasi, covering 800 miles in 15 days. Travellers can visit the former British cantonment area of Barrackpore, the battlefield of Plassey, terracotta temples in Kalna, before entering the state of Bihar through the feeder canal of Farakka. A two-day trip to the ruins of Nalanda University and Bodh Gaya makes for a nice sojourn. Stoping over at Sarnath for a visit to the Buddhist sites, the cruise finally docks at the ghats of Varanasi.

Sailing through river Hooghly, is like journeying through the heart of Bengal. Exploring the essence of bengal in Belur, Chandannagore, Mayapur, Nabadwip, Murshidabad and Kalna can be an exhilarating experience. Apart from enjoying religious and heritage sites such as the Belur Math, Iskon temple at Mayapur and the fort of nawabs in Murshidabad, on-boat activities add to the thrill.

River basin studies: A half-hearted attempt

By M H Ahssan

Impact assessment studies to understand the consequences of large dam projects have been de-linked from the actual implementation of the projects, thus diluting their value.

The Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) on River Valley and Hydroelectric Projects of the Ministry of Environment and Forests of the Government of India has recently approved the Terms of Reference for conducting basin level studies of the Bichom and Lohit river basins in Arunachal Pradesh. The EAC has been constituted under the EIA notification 2006 to examine projects that apply to the Ministry for environmental clearance.

According to the TOR, the basin studies envisage "providing optimum support for various natural processes and allowing sustainable activities undertaken by its inhabitants". The Bichom and Lohit basins are among the river basins in the Himalayas where massive plans for building large dams and developing hydropower are being rolled out. More than a hundred projects with installed capacities totalling to 54,000 MW are at various stages of planning and implementation just in the state of Arunachal itself.

Often, a large number of dams are planned on single rivers or in single basins. For example, in the Lohit basin, a cascade of six projects totalling to 7918 MW are being planned, all within a length of 86 kms.

Such cascade-type development or a number of dams in a single basin raise the critically important issue of cumulative impacts. Often, the impact of all projects taken together is much greater than the sum of impacts of individual projects. Unfortunately, cumulative impacts are hardly ever assessed, as individual projects are planned and evaluated separately. One of the strongest criticisms against the recent plans of dam building has been the complete lack of any assessment of the carrying capacity - what level of development, and in particular the number of dams a basin can sustain - and of the totality of impacts of the number of dams and projects in the basin.

Indeed, when the impact assessment of even individual projects is patchy at best and often farcical, it would be too much to expect a proper cumulative impact assessment.

Against this background, the decision to undertake basin level studies in the Lohit and Bichom are welcome steps in the right direction. The TORs of the basin studies indicate that wide-ranging and extensive examination has been called for, as is necessary for any such study. The TORs call for "inventorisation and analysis of the existing resource base and its production, consumption and conservation levels, determination of regional ecological fragility/sensitivity based on geo-physical, biological, socio-economic and cultural attributes, review of existing and planned developments as per various developmental plans, and evaluation of impacts on various facets of environment due to existing and planned development."

The studies are to then assess the stress/load due to various activities and suggest environmental action plans that can involve preclusion or modification any activity and measures. Unfortunately, the good part ends with this. The way the studies have been structured ends up defeating the very purpose of carrying them out.

First and foremost, the basin studies have been effectively de-linked from the implementation of the projects as there is no requirement that the projects be conditional to the findings of the basin studies. Neither is there any explicit stay on the consideration and implementation of any of the projects pending the studies.

Logically, the basin studies should suggest what level of development, including hydropower projects, the basin can sustain. The projects should be planned based on this. However, the current planning and decision making turns this on its head. The numbers, locations, capacities, types and other details of the projects have already been decided. Many of these projects have already been allotted to (mostly) private developers who already have or would soon be approaching the Ministry for environmental clearance. In Bichom basin, the 600 MW Bichom (or Kameng) project is already under construction.

It is clear that the Expert Appraisal Committee understood this issue. The Minutes of its meeting dated 15 and 16 December 2008 record that "The committee noted that the study will be completed in two years and M/s WAPCOS has been entrusted with the job. In case, any project on this basin is submitted during this study period for environmental clearance, how the outcome of the study will help to take a decision could not be clarified." The obvious solution is to put on hold the projects till the studies are done. However, what the Committee decided is that "the report may be submitted within six months by reducing the TOR and the study should focus only on hydroelectric projects."

Thus, studies that would need about two years are to be done in six months (later this was extended to nine) with reduced TORs. How the outcome of such truncated studies would help rational environmental decision making is a question. It is clear that the environmental objectives have been sidelined with an eye to build as many dams as possible.

The TOR for the studies does state that they can recommend the "preclusion of any activity", which presumably means that they can call for any or some of the hydropower plants not to be built. In reality, such an outcome is highly unlikely, as is seen from the reluctance to explicitly put on hold the projects in the basin pending the results of the study. While the Committee has from time to time discussed with concern the possible impacts of large number of projects in a single basin, it has fallen shy of taking the right, but hard decision when actually dealing with the problem.

For example, the Lohit basin study was originally envisaged and put forward as a condition while granting clearance for pre-construction activities to the Upper and Lower Demwe projects in March 2008. But the Minutes of the EAC meeting of July 2008, while discussing the basin study note that "Environmental Clearance to Demwe Upper and Demwe Lower HE Project should not be linked up with the completion of basin study." These two projects add up to 3430 MW, a full 43 per cent of the total 7918 MW planned in the basin.

Further, considering that the studies are to be paid for by the project developers - in proportion to the size of the projects they have been allotted - the conflict of interest is clear.

An earlier such basin study - to determined the carrying capacity of the Teesta basin in Sikkim, initiated in 2001 - at least had a condition that no project will be considered for environmental clearance till the carrying study is completed. That study took over five years. However, the MoEF violated its own condition and accorded clearance to several projects even before the study was completed. On the other hand, based on the recommendations of the study, the MoEF has asked the Sikkim Government to drop five hydropower projects above Chungthang, and restrict the height of those below it. This shows that findings of such studies are likely to require significant rethinking of dam building plans in the river basins.

Neeraj Vagholikar, who is with the environmental organisation Kalpavriksh and has studied dam projects in the North-East since 2001 says about the Bichom and Lohit studies: "The reluctance to put on hold individual project clearances till comprehensive river basin studies are completed puts a question mark on the utility of the entire exercise. Moreover, the river basin studies will now be much shorter exercises instead of the comprehensive ones envisaged earlier, which are necessary for proper environmental decision-making. It appears that the Bichom and Lohit studies are more likely to be used to create a justification for the large scale hydropower development already planned than protect the ecological integrity of these river basins. One of the two key outcomes proposed for the studies - to provide sustainable and optimal ways of hydropower development - is a clear indication that the environmental objectives are of secondary importance."

The silver lining to this is that the second key outcome specified by the TOR is to "assess requirement of environmental flow during lean season with actual flow, depth and velocity at different level". It is significant that the Committee has recognised the importance of environmental flows, the flows necessary to maintain the ecological existence of the river, an issue that is increasingly being acknowledged as critical to sound river basin planning. One has to wait and see if the studies would have the independence to recommend preclusion or modifications to some of the hydropower projects if this is found necessary to maintain environmental flows, and if so, whether such recommendations could be implemented.

While there are several other important issues with the basin studies not discussed here, there is one that is essential to point out. The TORs for the basin studies lay out in detail many parameters that need to be studied, field data that needs to be collected, but fail to require that the local communities be consulted and involved in the process. This is a major shortcoming, and an indicator that the studies are reinforcing the technocratic approach instead of a participatory one that is the essence of environmental decision-making.

The basin studies for Bichom and Lohit are examples of a good initiative gone awry. The Committee's recognition of the need for basin studies is a welcome step. It is clear that this is an acknowledgement of issues of cumulative impacts and carrying capacity that activists, researchers, academics, dam affected people and others have been consistently raising for the last many years. At the same time, it does not go to the logical conclusion and hence has become self-defeating.

What the Committee needs to do is to re-define the TORs for the studies allowing them the two years that the committee itself feels are necessary, and redesigning them to require meaningful participation of local communities and civil society. Meanwhile it should put the projects in the basin on hold, and make them conditional to the findings of the study. If this is done, it will be a significant step in the direction of environmentally sustainable and holistic approach to development.

In the cross fire between security and insurgency

By M H Ahssan

Plenty of criticism has been levelled at excess use of force and abuse of human rights by the Army in Manipur. And yet, with much infighting and corruption, insurgents themselves have lost the moral high ground.

As we are driven out of Imphal for sight-seeing to Loktak Lake (one of the largest fresh water lakes in northeast India) or to Moreh (a town at Manipur’s border with Burma), we are stopped a couple of times by the security forces to check us up. The vehicle stops almost equal number of times and the driver goes down to a shop or in some alley, comes back and we drive on. Later we learn that driver has to go to pay the ‘tax’!

In Manipur, a ten-sitter vehicle pays Rs.100 and a truck pays Rs.500-1000 as ‘tax’ to the local underground groups. And there are many along the route! Drivers quietly pay up as they factor it in as cost which is charged to us – clients. No wonder then, vehicle-hire in Manipur is an expensive part of the tour! A three hour drive from Imphal to Kohima (147 kms) costs Rs.6000-8000 for a non-AC ten-sitter. The same would cost at the most Rs.1500 for a ride along the Mumbai-Pune super express highway.

Sons of soil turning extortionists
This is just a miniscule glimpse into the extortions by underground groups – UG as they are labeled even in Manipur’s print media. And counting the number of insurgents is like counting stars, says Babloo Loitongbam of Human Rights Alert in Imphal. According to the reply to a recent Legislative Assembly question, the number of armed insurgents is 12000. The highest insurgent to civilian ratio is in Manipur, not Afghanistan or Iraq, says Babloo. The armed forces personnel strength in the state is 55000, which translates to 4-5 armed security personnel for every armed rebel.

And yet, these insurgents are literally holding entire state to ransom demanding ‘tax’ at every walk of life and resorting to violence. There is an organised racket of taking a share from government spending under every head – be it for road construction or water scheme or even salaries of government employees. Some people reckon, as high as 70 per cent of funds allocated for any development project go in distributing ‘cuts’ to underground groups. What work can be done in the balance 30 per cent is anybody’s guess!

It is not surprising then that the infrastructural set up in Manipur is in dire state with just four hours of power every day and roads are in broken condition soon after laying. Any resistance to extortions is met with the grave consequences as in case of Dr Kishen Singh Thingam. He was an upright civil servant who refused to the demands of an underground group, and was brutally killed in February this year in Ukhrul district.

Media in the line of fire
Even media in Manipur is not spared with UGs dictating their terms. A senior media person from a leading daily from Imphal who survived insurgents’ bullet injuries, says “if we print something criticizing a particular UG, they force us to retract the statement and threaten with dire consequences. They dictate what we write and what we don’t.” Another media person narrated how his newspaper was caught in the conflict between two warring UGs. One group ordered writing against the other and the other ordered an apology for doing that, he says.

“These terrorists think they are the sons of soil, then why they make their mothers and sisters suffer in their business of extortions”, says a wellknown member of the local elite in Imphal, requesting anonymity.

In the meantime, tales after tales circulate of atrocities inflicted upon common people by security personnel and also by insurgents. Villagers in Manipur come in the line of fire between insurgents and security forces – each suspecting them to be informers or accomplices.

Civil society groups do protest. The protests that are loud and clear are against the establishment – the security forces -- and not so loud against the umpteen insurgent groups. It is easy to identify the state repressors – the security forces who have unlimited power under the draconian Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA). But excesses have been committed not only by the armed forces but so also by the countless insurgent groups who are fighting each other.

Distrust, apprehension about outsiders
The situation is so complex and appears hopeless to the outsiders. There is a general atmosphere of distrust and everyone is eyed with suspicion. Given this state of affairs in Manipur, there is no tourism worth the name.

All the same time, the people of Manipur look up to the people from mainland, especially media to carry home the message from them about the grim situation and to understand their predicament. The 7th annual meet of Network of Women in Media, India (NWMI) during March 5-7, 09 was an opportunity for both – media from the mainland India and people of Manipur to establish channels of communication. The meet was organised by Manipur chapter of NWMI led by Anjulika Thingam in the face of personal tragedy of loss of her brother Dr Kishen Singh Thingam. About 60 women journalists from all over India got first hand exposure to the grueling issues of the state and also witnessed on March 7th, the release and re-arrest of Sharmila – the iron lady on the fast unto death for last eight years demanding end of AFSPA.

Armed Forced Special Powers Act
The Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) has been in force in many parts of the Northeast and J&K for decades. But nowhere is it protested like in Manipur. Using the provisions in this Act, some security personnel misuse the power to search, destroy any structure and arrest, shoot, kill any suspect without the fear of any prosecution for gross violation of human rights. In 2000, Irom Sharmila witnessed Assam Rifle men shooting down 10 civilians at a bus stand in a town near Imphal in retaliation to insurgents attacking their convoy. Already she had witnessed Manipuri women raped and killed by the armed forces and she decided to go on fast unto death since then demanding repealing of AFSPA. She is arrested and is being force fed through nasal tubes in the custody. But one cannot be detained for more than a year for this ‘crime’, so she is released every year. Since she does not touch water or food, she is rearrested next day.

Sharmila has become an icon of Manipur women’s protest against armed forces with Meira Paibi (meaning Women Torch Bearers) rallying behind her. In 2004, Manorama was raped and killed by Assam Rifles which led to histrionic stripping down by 12 Imas (mothers) from Meira Paibi in front of Kangla – then the head quarters of Assam Rifles in the sprawling erstwhile royal fort. This sent shock waves across the region and the demand for AFSPA repeal was intensified with civil society groups and human rights activists joining the protest.

This moved the Centre too and the Assam Rifles was shifted out of the fort. A committee headed by Justice Jeevan Reddy was appointed to examine the demand for AFSPA repeal. However, while recommending AFSPA repeal, the Jeevan Reddy committee has not looked into the alternative solution to the state’s insurgency.

I spoke to a cross section of Manipuri society and experts and got a mixed response to the issue of AFSPA and insurgency. True, despite AFSPA and 4-5 security persons for each insurgent (going by available data), the insurgency still goes unabated. What will happen if armed forces are withdrawn? Will it not give insurgents a free playing field?

Says Babloo Loitongbam, “The armed forces should be above the law and not under the law, they have to be answerable to the system.” This argument is supported by a woman journalist narrating her experience of high-handedness by the security forces. Traveling in the northeast for a photo feature assignment, she reached a town in Assam late in the evening and had her camera around her neck. Just then, an armed police was beating up a person pulling down the shop shutter. This policeman pulls off the camera from her neck though she had not taken any photos and takes her to the police station where they exposed her film destroying all her painstakingly done work. All they could have done is to develop the film and remove only those they suspected. And there is no recourse for such acts of the security forces under AFSPA as it allows them to destroy anything on suspicion.

As Babloo suggests, if the armed forces were above law then this journalist at least could have sought justice. Yes, police can interrogate her on suspicion but cannot destroy her work! They cannot take law into their own hands, torture, rape and kill civilians.

In response, an army officer on condition of anonymity, says, “During a riot like situation is there time to attest a suspect’s bona fide? Again, is there enough time to get official order to take action against the suspects, if we are not armed with AFSPA? Insurgents are hiding in a structure but we await orders and fall prey to their bullets? Civilians have little knowledge about armed forces operations. On one hand they call for tying our hands and then also have unrealistic expectations from us to finish insurgency. Just for few cases of rape and violence, entire armed force is branded as villain, which irks and demoralizes our men. You must have seen soldiers with rifles keeping a roving eye on the streets of Imphal but have you noticed anyone looking straight at you or any other indication of misbehaviour?”

Most of the elite in Imphal tow the popular line of criticising AFSPA, but in private say that end of Army rule means uncontrolled extortions and a new rein of terror in the state.

But Padmashri A M Gokhale, former chief secretary of Nagaland vehemently opposes AFSPA saying “There is absolutely no need for such a law. You win people through friendship and not through confrontation”. Gokhale made his mark in Nagaland during equally bad situation winning over people’s confidence through his projects ‘Village Development Board – VDB’ and ‘Nagaland Empowerment of People through Economic Development – NEPED’.

Experts, observers and also civil servants accept that a lot of wrong was done in the Northeast states especially because of AFSPA, which gave rise to the current strife.

Genesis of the insurgency
Manipur is like a bowl - valley surrounded by hills. While valley of Imphal was ruled by Vaishnavite Meitei, the surrounding hills were ancestral domain of Nagas and Kukis. Manipur kingdom came under British Rule in 1891. After British left in 1947, Manipur King signed letter of accession and Manipur was merged with India.

However, Manipur, an ancient kingdom with a 2000-year-old recorded history and a magnificent culture, was made a Union Territory and Manipuri, an ancient language spoken and written by all the Meiteis and tribals, was not included in the Eighth Schedule of the Indian Constitution then. It was granted Statehood only in 1972. This had irked the people in Manipur and insurgency in Manipur first started in sixties.

Add to this ferment the Naga-Kuki conflict and Nagas not accepting their hill districts going to the Manipur state. In fact, the seeds of over four-decade old insurgency first started with Nagas resisting Indian government taking over Naga hills from the British Empire and later distributing some Naga hill districts to Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

The situation was very complex and the Centre failed to handle it carefully.

In his report “Manipur: Blue Print for Counterinsurgency”, E N Rammohan, Director General of the Border Security Force (BSF) and advisor to the Governor of Manipur analyses of the bungling:

“The bureaucrats who came from Delhi and other states in 1949 were by and large not sympathetic to the Meiteis and the tribals. With a few exceptions, they did not win the confidence of the Manipuris. The worst was the policy of the party in power at Delhi, as a result of which the Northeast was flooded with funds, indirectly encouraging corruption, on the premise that this would make the people soft and finish off insurgency. On the contrary, it had just the opposite effect. ‘Delhi Durbar’ - a coterie of contractors, all followers of the party in power at Delhi - secured most of the government contracts in the North eastern states. This infamous band of contractors took 95 per cent of the development funds allocated by Delhi back to private coffers in Delhi. Hundreds of kilometers of roads were built on paper and even annually maintained on paper. Food grains from the public distribution system were siphoned off wholesale into the black market. The politicians and bureaucrats of Manipur quickly adapted to this system.”

Unemployed educated youth
With spread of Christianity in Naga Hills especially, education was available in the state. As a result, Manipuri youth are well educated but there are no job opportunities. Each year, some 5000 graduates roll out of the colleges, but there are hardly 50 new jobs in the government. Heavy bribes up to Rs.12 lakhs are paid for these jobs. In the meantime, of you join an underground group, there is a salary of Rs.500 per month!

‘If you don’t want your son to get into that, you sell your ancestral property to raise Rs.12 lakh!’ says Babloo. The ideology with which the insurgency started is dead and now it is a way of survival for thousands of educated unemployed youth, she adds.

Whither peace? The possibilities
Peace has eluded this beautiful state over last four decades. The central government’s solution has been, by far, to send money and armed forces. Per capita annual central grants for Manipur at around Rs.12000 is one of the highest among all states and nearly ten times all states average of Rs.1300. This does not include defence and security expenditure.

In his blueprint for counterinsurgency, Rammohan suggests:

“The first step in the kind of situation we are faced with in Manipur, where there is an undercurrent of secession, rampant corruption led by the politicians and tamely abetted by the bureaucrats, and a complete failure by the state to protect the few upright government servants, is to list out the local civil, judicial and police officers and identify the few who have not been tainted by corruption and who, if protected, are likely to stand up against intimidation. The second step is to post these officials in all crucial posts….The third step is to ensure that reliable judicial officers are posted….”

Perhaps, the first step would be to pacify people by repealing AFSPA and thereafter using existing civil laws more stringently to deal with insurgents. As Rammohan suggests, identify and appoint upright officials who should have knack of developing friendship with the people like Padmashri Gokhale (quoted above). Simultaneously, post-AFSPA, the same brigade of Meira Paibis along with civil society groups should carry on similar pressure on their own sons and brothers to quit extortionist way of making money under the guise of the cause. Alongside, the government, administration and people should work towards economic development generate work opportunities.

One such opportunity is already knocking at the door in Manipur with proposed road link from west of India through Imphal and Burma to South Asia. This will open the corridors for various business activities. But if Manipur’s ‘sons of soils’ keep a myopic view and turn this into another chance of ‘tax’ on vehicular traffic, the caravan will go away with outsiders taking the pie.

China-India equation still uncracked

By Jian Junbo

Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram last month accused China of using the ongoing crisis in Sri Lanka to "expand its sphere of influence", adding that this had "impacted on India's response to the situation". Meanwhile, China in April blocked India's loan efforts at the Asian Development Bank on territory that both nations claim.

Such allegations and suspicion only damages trust between these two Asian giants, which both have reasons to develop a more constructive and friendly partnership. China and India have rapidly growing economies, but they are still developing countries with sizeable segments of the population living in poverty. If there were fruitful bilateral cooperation and a peaceful regional environment, then people's livelihoods could be improved and both nations' economies be strengthened.

As developing countries striving for modernization, China and India could in theory be closer with each other than each is with Western countries. And any confrontation between them instantly becomes leverage for other world powers to use and gain influence over them.

Many people in the two countries, especially in India, like to compare the nations' achievements in various aspects of modernization. Some compare the development of Mumbai to that in Shanghai, while others like to compare levels of industry or political systems. But critics say these types of comparisons only lead to nationalistic emotions overtaking the more important aspects of bilateral relations.

There is a danger of Sino-India relations becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the attitude of one country leading the other to take the same attitude. Unfortunately, issues such as the decades-old border dispute are not easy to resolve.

China claims India has occupied more than 90,000 square kilometers of its territory since the 1940s. In 1913, the British-Indian authority signed a secret agreement with the then Tibetan authority in China to draw the so-called McMahon border line between China and India, which ceded several large parts of Chinese territory to India. Neither the Republic of China (ROC) or the People's Republic of China (PRC) recognized the legitimacy of the McMahon Line.

In 1947, India's Jawaharlal Nehru administration, encouraged by the idea of a great Indian federation, declared its compliance with the McMahon Line. In 1962, partly supported by the Soviet Union, Indian troops invaded the area. A border war broke out. India swiftly lost, but China's military pulled out of the disputed areas to minimize the impact of the war and to avoid superpowers becoming involved.

China has hoped India would withdraw from the territories. But India has controlled them since and many Indian nationals have migrated there, with one large part of the territories becoming an Indian state - Arunachal Pradesh - that China does not recognize.
For the sake of solidarity among developing countries, the then-Chinese government under Mao Zedong showed tolerance towards India, just as it ceded the sovereignty of a small area to North Korea and rented out an island to Vietnam, both of which were so-called brothers of the "great family of socialism".

But the wounds of the brief Sino-India border war have not healed. China has often been cited as a potential enemy of India's military, with ties worsened by China's friendship with Pakistan. India's defense minister publicly stated the threat after India's first successful nuclear-bomb test in 1998.

Any small action on one side of the disputed section of the border arouses the other's suspicion. India, for example, is sensitive to China's infrastructure projects in Tibet or even in Hainan province, assuming that they could be used in any potential conflict against India.

This mutual suspicion runs counter to the long history of good Sino-India relations. As Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said during a visit to India in 2007, the history of China-India relations is more than 2,000 years old. The long history consists of cultural communications based on Buddhism. Thus, to some degree, China and India share similar cultural values.

The friendship was also consolidated in the last century in two different stages: through fighting colonialism and seeking independence in the 1920s to the 1940s to co-advocating the five basic principles among sovereign states in the 1950s.

The current level of trade between the nations is too low, given the huge size and fast growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, and economic exchanges are still imbalanced. It was reported in 2008 that India was only China's 10th-largest trade partner and the eighth export market. However, in the same year, China was India's biggest trade partner and the third-biggest export market.

Important international issues could also be resolved through cooperation between China and India. For example, the Indian Ocean has increasingly become an important thoroughfare amid more frequent economic exchanges between Asian, African and Arabian countries. With more and more pirate activities on these waters, China and India could jointly help police the waters. Other issues, such as international infrastructure projects and anti-terrorism cooperation, could be achieved through effective cooperation.

Fortunately, both countries have realized the importance of good relations for national interests and regional prosperity. The Chinese government in 2002 issued the "three policy principles toward neighboring countries - harmony, security and prosperity", which included India as an important neighbor of China.

India in the 1990s started to implement the "Look East" policy, which partly aimed at the expansion of India's influence in Southeast Asia. Yet the policy at the same time implied that India was paying more attention to East Asia, including China. As Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said when he visited China in January, China was one focus of the Look East policy.

These overtures indicate that the countries have gradually begun to understand the importance of having each other as a neighbor. Perhaps India should not be too sensitive to Chinese activities overseas, especially in the Indian Ocean and its neighboring countries, as these are mainly related to China maintaining its fast-growing economy.

China and India should look beyond seeing each other as strangers or enemies, and look towards the ideal Indian Minister of State for Commerce Jairam Ramesh encapsulated in the word "Chindia". He coined the phrase to describe a future in which China and India are united peacefully and together keep regional stability and promote regional prosperity, an idea which be a continuation of a great historic relation and shared culture.