Who will hold the offshoring crown in 2020?

How India could lose its grip on the market without an education and innovation overhaul.

Noshir Kaka is a director in the Mumbai office of analyst house McKinsey & Company. In an exclusive interview, Newsindia's Nick Heath spoke to Kaka about his forthcoming report on how India's 50 per cent share of the global offshore technology and business services market could slip away by 2020.

What will happen to India's share of global IT and BPO market by 2020?
Dropping market share is one of scenarios that we have projected by 2020 if India chooses not to release the capacity in its education system.

India produces about three million graduates a year. The entire offshoring industry across IT and BPO is 2.1 million people, so clearly there're enough graduates - the real issue is the suitability of candidates. Effectively we are using a tenth of our workforce that is suitable for this industry. If that trend continues you will have a shortage of suitable talent.

The primary cause is the quality of communications and language skills, the second is that some people are not educated well enough to be able to serve a multinational corporation.

The combined market share of 50 to 53 per cent, which is what India has today, you could see that combined market share decline because India does not have the supply side availability.

But today the new Indian education minister has proposed a public-private partnership in India's education system, where 2,500 model schools would be created, which is something we have been shouting from the rooftops for for a long time.

When will the decline begin to happen?
We have seen an increase in India's market share in 2008.

The global financial crisis has given India a bit of breathing room, it's dropped the growth rates. In 2009/10 we will see low growth, so a supply side constraint will not come through in the next two years.

Beyond that, if gets back to original growth rate and we don't see any change in the education system, we could see those supply shortfalls happening very quickly thereafter.

Which countries look most likely to take that market share?
You have got to separate out those countries that are the volume hubs and those that offer more niche services.

When you look at the volume hubs, it's very hard to get away from China and Russia, which are two of the largest by population locations. China tends to be a lot more engineering, design and infrastructure services led, more catering to North Asia. Russia tends to be outstanding for software product development.

In Latin America, Brazil is one of the few nations that offers an emerging working population of that size. [Much of Latin America] is Spanish speaking, southern-US focused.

In Eastern Europe the talent pools are not as deep as in India and China and more fragmented by language.

Vietnam and Egypt has a reasonable talent pool and a lot of government support to promote this industry, support by real initiatives on the ground making changes to the education system and infrastructure to support this industry.

Which location will be the first offshoring destination choice for the UK and Europe in 2020?
For the Anglo Saxon world, the US and UK predominantly, India will continue to be the country of choice. Even with its talent constraints that I talked about, India continues to introduce about a third of the suitable talent in the world. I don't think that India's dominant position is by any means threatened in the near future.

Which of the global outsourcing companies will dominate by 2020?
You will see global systems integrators that will be very successful, some of them already have very large global footprints and have embraced a global delivery model and are moving to scale very rapidly.

You will also find a few of the Indian top tier companies, in the BPO and on IT services space, among the world's top ten - if you project their growth rates out.

You will see also the stabilisation in growth of the captives [inhouse offshore operations] turned third parties, such as Convergys did many years ago spinning out from Bell South. You will find you will have a few captives that have achieved the scale and size and become very successful third parties.

Will companies still be setting up their own inhouse offshore operations or captives by 2020?
As the market matures for commoditised services it gets tougher and tougher to establish the cost structure or attract the talent that would be viable in a country like India.

When you go for a commoditised service the case for outsourcing that in an offshore environment is growing as the capability of the vendor base grows.

For example there are very few IT captives on the application development and maintenance side. The ones that are there are very large, have been there for some time and can warrant the scale economies.

You will begin to see a very similar trend on the business services side.

What sectors will outsource the most work by 2020?
Fast forward to 2020 and we see almost 80 per cent of the incremental growth coming outside of today's core verticals of banking, insurance, telecoms and manufacturing. They won't decline but there are other areas that will assume greater or as much significance for outsourcers.

Today, in terms of outsourcing, government or public sector is slightly smaller than BFSI [financial sector]. The second sector we are excited about is healthcare, with the demographic changes imminent in US and most of Europe we think that healthcare provision are going to go through the roof. Automation and offshoring is one of the levers that government and companies will use to take care of that.

The two others are utilities and media.

Outside of the verticals we think the Bric [Brazil, Russia, India and China] nations are going to be a great source of domestic outsourcing growth for many companies.

The offshoring industry has largely focused on Fortune 1000 clients and we think going forward small and medium business will be a very interesting source of growth.

What type of new tech services will be being outsourced by 2020?
Energy efficiency and climate change, mobile applications and clinical products are just three examples.

In energy efficiency, another McKinsey study estimated that up to a third of the carbon abatement potential worldwide in greenhouse gases will be directly or indirectly induced by technology. If you look at the innovation around smart grids, industrial innovation or green buildings, a lot of this is technology enabled. That is a huge opportunity to innovate from a low cost environment.

Or it could be another product innovation such as the Tata Nano car.

If you look at what's happening in India or any other of the low-cost countries, a lot of the work that we do is replication of a service done somewhere else.

We have a whole new opportunity on to offer new products and services that have not been created somewhere else.

What effect will protectionism have on the offshoring industry?
We saw it in 2001 after the dot com bubble burst and we are seeing it again.

As economic cycles go up or down and unemployment grows you will see some degree of noise and bills being introduced.

We did some research showing the economic growth enabled by offshoring $1 of work from North America to India creates wealth worth more than that value in North America. It's an economic win-win.

So far I have not seen major political movements being pursued in earnest by both governments and we are very hopeful that the trade barriers stay down and we don't get a whiplash effect that will hurt both countries.

The Iron Man’s Masque

By Neelabh Mishra

Forced by the RSS to outright deny any prime ministerial ambitions behind his planned anti-corruption rath yatra, and outmanoeuvred by Narendra Modi and his choreographed fast, Lal Krishna Advani has now decided to play a different hand. The senior BJP leader’s rath yatra will now make a detour: he has now decided to make a bid for his long-cherished goal of becoming prime minister via the NDA route.

Modi, it must be said, has elbowed Advani about a bit, and jostled the compulsive charioteer even for his taken-for-granted mantle of Loh Purush Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel. He even made Advani change his original plan of starting the yatra from the Sardar’s hometown, Karamsad, in Gujarat. Not only that, for the first time in 20 years, Advani was made to miss his September 25 date with Somnath, from where he had begun his only ‘successful’ rath yatra, the 1990 one, which took the BJP to victory with the Ayodhya campaign.

Advani would have us believe the missed date does not matter, the purpose being fulfilled by the Allahabad High Court verdict on Ayodhya. But everyone knows the real reason: by announcing his own rally on September 25, Modi had displaced the old veteran.

Advani has had to content himself with planning his rath yatra from Sitab Diara in Bihar, the birthplace of Jayaprakash Narayan. Sending out a patent signal, he has invited Modi’s bete noire and rival in the NDA, Bihar’s chief minister Nitish Kumar, for the flagging-off. The decision to start from an NDA-ruled state (in which the BJP is a junior partner) rather than BJP-ruled Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka or Uttarakhand is his reaction to the lukewarm fashion in which the Sangh parivar and the BJP have welcomed his idea of starting again on a rath yatra.

Given Nitish’s political distance from Modi, Advani is driving a point home to his own political parivar. Nitish would rather project himself as the NDA leader nationwide than have Modi claiming prime ministerial candidacy, and till then, he would gladly suffer Advani’s leadership than that of any other BJP leader. So Advani’s message in kicking off from Bihar is that he’s the BJP leader most likely to be acceptable to all allies.

Going by the way the RSS made Advani publicly shed his prime ministerial ambition in Nagpur recently, it wouldn’t like being outflanked like this, even though it might publicly go along for fear of showing dissension within the parivar. Taking lessons from some disappointments during Vajpayee’s NDA regime, the RSS would like a firmer grip on the alliance next time round. This is not possible without a firmer grip on the party it mentors, the BJP.

Hence, it has gradually been tightening its hold on the BJP, first by installing its man Nitin Gadkari at the helm, and then, through him, people at every organisational level. But a major obstacle it faced was stagnation in the Sangh’s own organisation. Because of this, the RSS had failed to provide a new generation of efficient, enthusiastic and committed foot soldiers for the BJP. The RSS saw this, and also the fact that its pet Ramjanmabhoomi agenda had run out of steam. Its outdated communal mobilisation and the Hindutva-nationalism hyphenation had failed to connect with a young and increasingly aspirational middle class.

The RSS saw an opportunity in Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption campaign, even though it was not the agitation’s prime mover. Dismayed with the mainstream political class on corruption and unexposed to any alternative political vision, aspiring young Indians enthusiastically followed voices proclaiming their ‘civil society’ status in what was put out as an apolitical fight against corruption.

So it lent unconditional support to the agitation without staking any claims to leadership. Its youth wing, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, more active in the agitation, was careful in pushing an anti Nehru-Gandhi family agenda. In the long term, the RSS, through its ideological combination of nationalism with an anti-corruption platform, hoped to find new recruits from the milling crowds of youths. In the short term, the RSS possibly believed that the anti-UPA and anti-Congress fervour generated by the anti-corruption agitation would benefit the BJP by default at the time of voting.

As an arrogant and blundering Congress seemed to walk into this trap, an impatient Advani jumped the gun, in the process prompting Modi to outbid him with his farce of a fast and bringing the RSS and Nitish openly into the power-play, thereby exposing the fissures in and between the BJP, the Sangh parivar and the NDA.

There are more bad eggs than good in engineering colleges

By M H Ahssan

“IITians lack quality. IIT aspirants somehow get through the joint entrance examination. But their performance in IITs, at jobs, or when they come for higher education in institutes in the US is not as good as it used to be,” Infosys chief mentor NR Narayana Murty had lamented recently. This holds true for not just IITs (Indian Institute of Technology), but for engineering colleges in general. Over time, the quality of students getting through in engineering colleges has deteriorated.

Academicians opine that the ease with which a candidate is able to get an engineering seat is what is lowering the quality of tech education. “It’s happening across the country. The level of education is coming down,” they said.

With the cut-off percentage set at 45 % for general merit students and 40 % for SC/ST, getting into an engineering college does not require much effort. “The cut- off must be restored to at least 50 %, so that the intake of students is up to the mark. Candidates scoring below this must not be made eligible,” said MR Doreswamy, founder-chairman of PES College.

Of 188 engineering colleges in the state, only 40 are up to the mark, which is basically about 25 % of the colleges, he said.

“There are far too many engineering colleges in the state, because of which there are more seats available. If the number of colleges is restricted, the number of students who can opt for the course will also come down,” said KR Venugopal, principal of University Visvesvaraya College of Engineering (UVCE).

“In autonomous colleges, even if a student has scored poor marks, they will not fail him, fearing, if they do, their reputation will be at stake. So, after the course, when the candidate gets into a job, he ends up being a poor performer,” he added. Summing up, he said that more number of colleges along with institutions refusing to fail a poor performer has left the level of employability at less than 20 % currently.

Many academicians blame it on the quality of teachers at engineering colleges. “The biggest challenge is getting teachers. These days, a student who has completed his BE securing a first class can teach, without having much knowledge about teaching methodologies and communication skills. More effort should be made in the direction of improving teachers, which will see an improvement in the quality of education,” said Doreswamy.

Venugopal agrees that the poor pay scale for teachers adds to the deterioration in the quality of the staff. “Many colleges do not have enough student strength, because of which teachers are paid a low salary,” he said.

Varun Melanta, director, MVJ College of Engineering, feels that there is only a marginal difference between academics and industry requirements. “If colleges add on internships, it would enhance the quality even further,” he said.

'Long kurta with collars always look classic'

By M H Ahssan

Designer duo Varun and Nidhika talk about the uniqueness of their label and the freshness they bring into fashion.

Your line is known by your names Varun and Nidhika. Why is that?We’re married and equal partners in the designing process. Our work and our designs involve both of us — and we wanted a brand name to reflect that.

When did you start?We both went to NIFT, Mohali. We graduated in 2006. I worked with Manish Arora and Rohit Bal, putting in two years with each. Nidhika worked with Namrata Joshipura and Abhijit Khanna in that time too. After putting in four years in the industry, we felt ready to come up with our own line. We started in 2010.

What defines the style trends of the moments?
Fashion has become more individualistic. Since we work on a prêt line, let’s talk about the trends here. Bright and yet offbeat colours are doing great and the emphasis is on interesting theme elements. This means, no bling and no more usual kurtas. The cuts are edgy, the details are quirky and the silhouettes are unusual. Women want to experiment these days and this is what is being reflected in the trends these days.

What is the future forecast for Indian fashion?
In India, we have a long summer. It’s hot for almost nine or ten months. We’re going to see more blends of cotton and linen, with light fabrics like chiffons and georgettes. Bling embellishments will not be seen and when it comes to colour combinations, the palate will be bright, but these colours will be paired with nude or neutral tones. Say, instead of pairing a fuchsia with mustard, we’ll see a fuchsia and mustard paired with nude overtones.

Are you going to go beyond clothes and venture into accessories?
We have already done some of that, including designing spaces. It’s all about the aesthetics. We’ll try our hands on whatever comes our way - it could be home décor, it could be cookware, it could be interiors. One never knows.

What is a classic look for an Indian woman?
One look that always works is a really long kurta with collars and a keyhole neck. This is a classic one.

A Customer-centric Content Marketing Approach

By M H Ahssan

The pressure of competition and desire for business growth pushes marketers towards tactics that promise quick wins. Pundits advocate strategy first (been there) but doing so in a comprehensive way isn’t always practical, especially when it comes to areas like social media and content marketing.

For marketers in need of practical advice on customer-centric, practical content marketing, a solid framework can be invaluable for an adaptive approach that is thoughtful about overall direction and measurable short term impact at the same time.

An increasing number of Search Engine Marketers are advocating both Content Marketing and Social Media in concert with achieving SEO objectives which is a great sign, but often lacking a customer-centric approach.

Here’s a Content Marketing framework that proves to be customer-centric as well as SEO and Social Media savvy that I think any smart online marketer can follow.  Keep in mind, with a holistic approach, this 4 part framework can be applied to any type of online content that a company produces: HR, Customer Service, Public Relations, etc.

I talked about this approach at Content Marketing World recently and will be elaborating on it at several future events as well. Of course I drill down even deeper in “Optimize“.  But since that book won’t be out until the first part of next year, here is a bit of an elaboration.

Customers - Optimize for keywords or optimize of customers? It may be semantics and it’s certainly not a mutually exclusive situation with customer segments and individual search keywords. Many online marketers focus on keywords that are popular and relevant to products and services without ever considering things like customer pain points, behaviors and position within the buying cycle and how that manifests as a search query.

Content Marketers organize their campaigns according to customer needs and how to influence those customers to buy. Add keyword optimization (SEO) to that mix and you have a very powerful combination.
• Identify customer segments – What do they care about? What is their context?
 
• Document pain points & information needs during buying cycle.
 
• Build a path of content including triggers that inspire purchase and social sharing.

Keywords – As you understand the language of your customer, the opportunity to optimize content for search “findability” becomes very important. What better place to connect with customers than at the moment they proactively seek a solution? Build relevant keywords according to customer interests into a content creation plan with key messages and you’ll be one step closer to “relevant ubiquity” .

Besides search keywords, it’s worth considering social topics. The interplay between searching and social referrals is becoming more standard as buyers navigate information resources online.
 • Brainstorm and research keywords with tools like Google AdWords Keyword Tool, Wordtracker and Ubersuggest.
 
• Tap into social media monitoring tools to gauge what topics cluster together on social networks, blogs and Twitter, relevant to your search keywords.
 • Organize search keywords and social topics into a keyword glossary shared with anyone in your company that creates online content.

“Content – is King and Creativity is Queen”, according to Pan Didner of Intel. I happen to agree. Content Marketing is growing and soon “everybody will be doing it” but certainly not doing it well. Through a combination of keen customer insight, analytics and smart creativity, online marketers can stand out amongst the 27 million pieces of content shared in the U.S. each day or the 5 Exabytes of information created every 2 days around the world.

Keywords and topics can fuel a Content Plan that provides a calendar of planned content publishing, topics, optimization focus, promotion channels and planned repurposing. Allow for wildcards and spontaneous content creation according to real-time opportunities and current events.

 • Plan content according to customer segments, keyword topics and business services/product offering.
 
• Leverage search keywords for content optimization on the website, blog and on social media sites.
 
• Create modular content that can serve its purpose individually, as part of a matrix of topics and as repurposed content in the future.

Optimize & Socialize - Armed with customer insight, a keyword glossary and a content plan, it’s time for those Social SEO smarts to see some action.  With content staff and social media teams trained on SEO best practices, new content will be easier for prospects and customers to find – when it matters. They’re looking for it!   Monitoring search analytics for refinement of on-page optimization helps keep your investment in optimized search and social content high impact and current.

In today’s online marketing world, there is no “Optimize” without a smart dose of “Socialize”.  Social network development and content promotion is essential to inspire sharing, traffic and links. Social links and web page links to your content provide a powerful combination for search engines to use when finding and ranking helpful information that leads your customers to buy and share.

 • Train copywriting and social media staff on keyword glossaries and SEO best practices. Keep social topics up to date!

 • Optimize web and social content on and off the corporate websites while engaging and growing social networks.

 • Create, optimize and share useful content that will inspire customers to buy and share with their social friends.

The particular strategy, goals and methods of measurement will vary according to your situation of course, but as I mentioned above, this framework is applicable to any area of online content that a company might be publishing: Marketing, Sales, Customer Service, Human Resources, Public and Media Relations.

Have you seen examples of companies doing a great job of going from basic SEO to more robust content marketing optimization? Have you implemented or observed some great examples of “optimize and socialize”?

Bigg Boss 5 - Launched with Bashing Duo, Sanjay & Salman

By M H Ahssan

Actor Sanjay Dutt, who makes his debut on televison as the host for the fifth season of reality show Bigg Boss, says he was nervous initially but co-anchor and friend Salman Khan built his confidence.

The Bollywood celebrities made a splashing entry at a promotional event here last night, where they played anchors and questioned each other on various things including Khan's recent surgery and talk of an alleged tiff between the star-duo sometime back.

"As an anchor I enjoyed and liked it. I got confidence from Salman. Since this is the first time I am hosting a show so there was nervousness backstage. I was nervous but when we came on stage and Salman started the act and then I became comfortable....and we went with the flow," Sanjay said.

Both Salman and Sanjay have worked together in films like Saajan and Chal Mere Bhai, and share a great friendship.

Sanjay says he considers Salman like his younger brother. "We share a great chemistry, there is a great bond and friendship so all this is fun to do," he said.

Salman, who is hosting the show for the second time, won't be there for few episodes. When asked Sanjay how will he manage the show alone, he said, "I will call up Salman and take his help...we will be in touch. And I have seen the previous season as well."

Sanjay even asked for suggestions on how he should present himself on the show. The response was to perform his famous 'Munnabhai' act and do 'Gandhigiri', considering that the show starts from October 2. The show will be aired from Monday to Friday at 10.30 pm and on weekends at 10 pm on Colors channel.

The fifth season of TV reality show Bigg Boss promises to get bigger and better with two star hosts - Salman and Sanjay - who will be welcoming 14 new inmates including probables like boxer Mike Tyson and pop singer Shakira.

The show sees celebrity contestants stay in a house for about three months, cut off from the outside world. They are overseen by a "mysterious person" known as Bigg Boss.

This time, the location of Bigg Boss house has been shifted to Karjat from Lonavala. Interior designer Shayam Bhatia has designed the 9,000 square feet house.

This year there are two separate bedrooms as against the single bedroom last time where all 14 housemates stayed. The bedrooms have been done in shades of green and fuchsia with a hint of white, brown and yellow. The confession room varies with a shade of royal green and the jail concept is back and black.

The beautifully designed open kitchen is connected to a dining room that extends to the garden area. The outdoor spot consists of a pool, the activity area, gymnasium and the kitchen sink.

This season there will be over 55 cameras following every move of the contestants 24x7. Like last year there will be a special bedroom for the Head-of-House who will get special privileges.

Also, the show will also see two hosts for the first time --Bollywood stars Salman Khan and Sanjay Dutt. Salman, who hosted the fourth season, is the only celebrity who will be repeating the feat for the second time.

Fourteen handpicked strangers, locked in the house for about three months will have to perform all the household chores right from cleaning to cooking to tasks.

The names that are doing the rounds include - former world heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson, Colombian singer and dancer Shakira, former cricketer Navjot Singh Sidhu, Nihita Biswas (wife of convicted murderer Charles Sobhraj) Mexican actress Barbara Mori, former South African cricketer Jonty Rhodes, British singer-rapper Jay Sean, stand-up comedian Sudesh Lehri, Jaspal Bhatti, Shekhar Suman's actor son Adhyayan, TV actors Parul Chauhan (of 'Bidaai' fame), Karan Singh Grover (of 'Dil Mill Gayye') and Amar Upadhyay.

However, the names of the housemates will be out soon as the reality show is set to hit the small screen on October 2 on Colors channel.

"I feel this is the best time to do TV. Earlier I was little afraid to do it. When I went as a guest on Salman's show Dus Ka Dum he had told me that I must host a show. And if there is a good opportunity then he will ensure I do it. It is Salman who told me about Bigg Boss and that is how I came on board," Sanjay said.

Nitish or Modi - Who will make a better PM of India?

By M H Ahssan

When Narendra Modi threw his hat into the ring to become India's next prime minister, he never bargained for the fact that he would stumble on a skull cap. The now famous "cap incident" was a rare instance of spontaneity in a carefully choreographed Sadbhavna fast in Ahmedabad, when the Gujarat Chief Minister, in a gesture of spare-me-the-honour, rejected the cap offered by Maulana Hazrat Sufi Imam Sahi Sayeed Mehendi Husain. For a leader desperate to reach out to the Muslims of Gujarat and to Indians at large, that moment preserved by cameras was heavy with meaning, especially so when Modi displays a penchant for wearing a variety of colourful headgear that display the country's ethnic diversity.

The three-day amity fast was designed by India's most popular state administrator as a Gandhian short-cut to gain political acceptability needed for a national leader-and to announce his own ticket for the top job in 2014. The queue of BJP stalwarts, all as ambitious as Modi but with less credentials, was a sign of his rising clout as frontrunner. But when the curtain dropped on the drama, did Modi look merely desperate-an impatient player overdoing the part?

The question became inevitable as the noise accompanying the self-canonisation in Ahmedabad was in stark contrast to the silence in Patna. Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, shares only one passion with Modi: development. When Modi hard-sells his own mythology as a 21st century Sardar Patel who deserves a space larger than Gujarat, Nitish quietly waits in the wings, biding his time, patiently sure of himself. When Modi performs his way into front pages and onto prime time television, intimidating his colleagues in BJP and allies in NDA, Nitish takes backstage in Patna and refuses to supply the mandatory soundbites. If the flamboyance in Ahmedabad was divisive, the silence in Patna was reassuring. When the show was over and Modi had his lemonade, one man stood between him and his unhidden prime ministerial ambition: Nitish Kumar.

What is it that makes Modi, unarguably the most popular leader on the Right, a polarising figure in spite of his commendable achievement in bridging the communal divide in post-2002 Gujarat? Why is it that he is still a haunted man, forever struggling for acceptability beyond Gujarat? In opinion polls conducted by india today and even other publications, Modi consistently maintains his lead as India's best chief minister and the best possible prime minister in a non-upa government, but he still cannot take a break from the project of makeover: he is always a work in progress. Modi is trapped in his own image as an uncompromising Hindutva leader. That may be fine with the faithful but in India the gold standard of a right-wing prime minister was set by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the abiding embodiment of inclusive leadership.

Modi is still the proverbial hardliner, and hardline can get you success, not final success. Then, there is the legal labyrinth of riot-related cases which he continues to navigate, and it is unlikely that he or anyone knows till when. Modi has his rebuttal ready for the harrumphers. "When I took over, many felt I was too inexperienced to lead the government but today the same people say I have proved myself. So opinion can change over a period of time. But there is a vested interest group in India with intellectual ability that opposed Sardar Patel, Morarji Desai, Atalji, Advaniji and now me. So the belief that I am a polarising figure is not justified," he tells Newsindia.

This indomitable faith in himself is not totally misplaced, for he is still the BJP's best bet for 2014. A Modi showcased as India's best administrator with a mass base, and communication skills to match, will be a formidable force. His strength is Gujarat, as much as it is his curse. He now wants a bigger gallery to mount his bestselling portrait as a clean ruler and a development fanatic. Gujarat is the development model that industry moguls continue to toast and The Economist writes about. Under Modi's stewardship, the state has become an economic powerhouse whose growth rate is higher than the country's. Gujarat generates 16 per cent of India's industrial output and 22 per cent of its exports. From infrastructure to agriculture, from education to green technology, Gujarat has taken huge strides, showing the rest of India what focused leadership can achieve.

Says industrialist and president of the Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mahendra Patel: "Modi's greatest asset is his missionary spirit, which has forced the bureaucracy and industry to act. His development model has a trickle-down effect to the lowest levels." A tough administrator, he refused to slow down the drive against farmers indulging in theft to draw ground water for irrigation on the eve of the 2007 polls despite pressure from BJP MLAs. He has become an apostle of participative development. "If you look at India's past 40 years, you will find that ruling parties tailored their budget with a view to strengthen vote banks. They created models that made people dependent on Government. But in Gujarat, we rejected the vote-bank based model and created a new model," he says.

As an organiser and a campaigner who can play with the mass mind, he now wants to sell the slogan "Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas" to a wider audience. And within the BJP, in spite of the charioteer-in-chief Advani's refusal to retire from the roadshow, no one is more qualified to do so. As a senior BJP leader tells Newsindia, "Ultimately, who else is there?" Publicly, though, party leaders maintain that it is too early for the party to choose a prime ministerial candidate.

Arun Jaitley, in the run-up to the 2009 elections, had queered the pitch by endorsing Modi's name for prime ministership in 2014. Today the opposition leader in the Rajya Sabha, who is himself emerging as a national leader worthy of the top job, says the focus is on putting the BJP house in order. "The elections are still three years away," he adds. Party president Nitin Gadkari too says no decision has been taken yet to project anybody as the prime minister candidate for 2014. "We have not decided on Narendrabhai's name. His fast was not to become the prime minister. It is to clear the misunderstanding about Gujarat," he says.

He admits that there are problems in endorsing Modi's name because of the 2002 riots taint. "He cannot do much about it" but the party is making efforts to focus more on his development agenda, administrative skills and dynamic leadership, he says. "If Modi can prove that he can defeat Congress by a decisive margin in the Assembly elections, it will become a little easier for him," Gadkari says. But he is categorical about the possibility of Nitish as usurper: "He may be a key ally but remains an outsider. No worker in the party will campaign for him." Will allies accept Modi? "Ultimately votes count. If we get more votes, allies will automatically come. BJP reaching 165-170 seats is important. And when you go to war, you go with your best General. Modi is the best General that the party has," says a senior party leader.

The General must first win the war within. Modi has hardly been on talking terms with Gadkari ever since rss pracharak Sanjay Joshi was reinducted into the party to strengthen BJP in Uttar Pradesh against the Gujarat strongman's wishes. His weight-reducing bariatric surgery was a well-timed excuse for the party boss to avoid the photo-op with Modi during the Sadbhavna mission. Sushma Swaraj, who made it to Ahmedabad, was visibly uncomfortable in the company of the man who she thinks is responsible for her stint in the wilderness after her defeat from Bellary in 1999. Party insiders feel that Modi agreed to give a Rajya Sabha berth to Smriti Irani only to counter Swaraj.

Apart from Advani, Jaitley is the only central leader with whom Modi enjoys a good rapport, though Jaitley himself has prime ministerial ambitions. The rss is already working on a succession plan for Gujarat as Modi is convinced that he deserves an office higher than the one he occupies now. The new generation, swayed by the political zeitgeist, is sceptical about the Modi brand. "While the youth of the country may be on a warpath against corruption, demanding an honest administration, they are also looking for a more inclusive social structure. In this day and age, Modi may never be able to wish away the 2002 blot. It is there to stay. The party will have to do better than a Modi," says a young BJP leader.

That is why Modi's desperation is Nitish's hope. Parties like TDP, Biju Janata Dal and agp-traditionally anti-Congress but wary of alienating minority support in BJP's company-would be happy embracing NDA if Nitish Kumar is at the helm. Apart from his proven record in winning Muslim votes, he is winning, like Modi, in the politics of development as well. As an administrator, he has addressed critical areas ranging from restoration of law and order to health, educational services and building roads.

As a leader, he has pushed targeted social welfare schemes. According to his acolytes, if Nitish can make Bihar a functional state, he has the potential to change India too on behalf of NDA. Nitish's biggest disadvantage, though, is his electoral base. He may have the credibility and character to become a national leader, but JD-U, with only 20 members in 543-memberLok Sabha, is not a political force beyond Bihar. Though he has a good political chemistry with leaders like Naveen Patnaik, no regional satrap has come forward to propose his leadership.

The biggest roadblock for him will be Modi himself. With less than six months' age difference-the elder of the two, Modi, turned 61 only last week-the two can neutralise each other. There is no love lost between the two. The relationship worsened on May 10, 2009 when Modi, during an NDA rally at Ludhiana, clasped Nitish Kumar's hand and forcibly raised it as a show of solidarity.

Many considered it as Modi's revenge because Nitish had earlier scuttled Modi's plans for campaigning in Bihar for the Lok Sabha elections. Senior jd-u leaders seeking anonymity maintain that Nitish is mentally prepared to pull the plug on the alliance if Modi is named the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. With 117 jd-u MLAs in the 243-member Bihar assembly-besides a handful of Independent supporters-he thinks he can afford to take the risk. (BJP is his ally in Bihar.) Nitish has succeeded in keeping Bihar offlimits for Modi.

Since taking over as Bihar Chief Minister in November 2005, Nitish has put his foot down on Modi campaigning in the state. Nitish does not even mention Modi's name on public platforms, and considers the Gujarat chief minister as a communal leader unacceptable to his inclusive brand of politics. In June 2010, Nitish raged against advertisements carrying a picture of them together at Ludhiana which were placed in Bihar newspapers by Modi supporters. The advertisements had boasted about Gujarat's flood-relief aid to Bihar. Nitish took no time to withdraw his dinner invitation to BJP top brass then present in Patna for BJP's national executive meet.

He not only refused to attend the BJP rally held at the conclusion of the meet but also returned the Rs 5 crore given by the Gujarat government. Besides derailing the BJP's national executive meet, Nitish almost rocked the alliance. He knows that BJP cannot afford to lose someone like him who continues to be wooed by the Congress. He now hopes to keep Delhi inaccessible to his rival, though, while talking to Newsindia, he is characteristically diplomatic: "The BJP is yet to officially declare anyone as its prime ministerial candidate. We can express our opinion only after an announcement is made."

The opinion is unlikely to please Modi. Come 2014 and it will be a clash between the socialist and the saffronite in the opposition for the highest political position. It will be a battle to behold.

How ill is Mrs Gandhi?

By M H Ahssan

The news is good. The operation was a success. She is back in India and has begun to defuse the life-threatening crisis within Congress and government at a time when what she really needs is some rest. India doesn't know what exactly ails its most powerful citizen.

The one unanswered question, which continues to fuel speculation ranging from the ignorant to the bizarre, is: why did the authorities keep details of Sonia Gandhi's medical condition such a tightly wrapped secret? Some word has begun to trickle down since Sonia has returned. She has confided to a select few Congress leaders that she had first stage cancer, for which she went through a seven-hour-long surgical procedure. "In June, when Congressmen claimed that she had gone abroad to tend to her ailing mother, she had gone for her own treatment," a Congress leader told India Today. "The good news is that the illness is not life-threatening. However, it will be at least six months before she will be able to handle the normal workload," the source said.

India has substituted news with plenty of conjecture. Since August 4, when bbc and Agence France-Presse broke the news of Sonia Gandhi's surgery, Delhi's politically connected physicians have been in demand. Some have been toeing the Congress line that it's a private matter, some reprimanding nosy reporters, some citing the Hippocratic Oath while most are denying any knowledge. Various theories have been doing the rounds in a season of enforced silence-that it could be gastrointestinal or gynaecological cancer.

At the centre of all this is the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, US, where Sonia reportedly had her surgery. According to some doctors, speaking in strict confidentiality, the seven-hour-long surgery indicates a rare and difficult cancer. They said the 64-year-old Congress president was initially diagnosed with an "unspecified mass" in her pancreas. The tests indicated the probability of the rare neuroendocrine tumour of the pancreas (pNET). The more common pancreatic cancers, adenocarcinoma, are virulent and have a survival rate of about two per cent. But pNET is more slow-spreading and treatable. "The long ot time could be because pNET is so rare. It affects less than one person in 100,000 in the US," the doctors told Newsindia.

The operation could have taken long, says a doctor who refuses to be identified, because, post-operation, the biopsy revealed that it wasn't probably a cancer at all. "It was most likely an unusual disorder, pancreatic tuberculosis, which very often mimics pNET," he said. The symptoms for pancreatic tb and cancer can be surprisingly similar, making diagnosis virtually impossible: from fever and fatigue to weight loss to upper abdominal pain radiating to the back.

Radiological imaging techniques, ultrasonography, CT scan and other tests usually fail to make a clear distinction. "It's a very lucky and extremely rare misdiagnosis but not totally unheard of," says the doctor. At the world's top cancer facility, a patient with an unspecified mass can get a biopsy, an ultrasound for size and surgical procedure, all in a day. The doctors took time to detect it correctly and put Sonia on heavy-duty anti-tb therapy (reportedly for the next six months). "She should be fine after that," he says.

Beyond pNET and pancreatic tuberculosis is another theory. It stems from her physician of choice in the US. Internationally-known cancer specialist, Dr Dattatreyudu Nori, is professor and executive vice chair of radiation oncology at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City hospital. Nori is an acclaimed expert in women's cancer. He has been named as one of the top doctors in the US for the treatment of women by one of the most popular women's magazines, The Ladies Home Journal. Nori was on vacation in Iceland at that time, but was apparently called back urgently and returned to New York to coordinate the entire procedure for Sonia. Nori has neither confirmed nor denied that he was treating her.

There is no final official word on the Congress President's health but what can be confirmed is that the Congress party seems to have become suicidal. The most obvious manifestation of it is the sight of a hapless prime minister reduced to a bystander while the turf war between two of his senior Cabinet colleagues, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Home Minister P. Chidambaram, takes a heavy toll on governance.

Sonia remains the absolute authority where all arguments stop. The PM has fallen from grace, while Rahul has failed to rise to the occasion. According to a party official who met Sonia recently, "she is not happy with the handling of the 2G letter conflict by the prime minister." He was referring to a March 25, 2011, note written by the finance ministry to the PMO which stated that Chidambaram could have prevented the 2G scam by insisting on an auction.

Mukherjee is blaming the PMO for giving such a detailed response to an otherwise general RTI inquiry, as well as for demanding such a note in the first place. In a four-page letter written to the Prime Minister, he has said that it was at the behest of the then Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar that such a note was prepared. According to finance ministry sources, the letter states "the finance ministry sent a 12-paragraph note apprising the cabinet secretary of the facts but this was sent back with paragraphs added." Whether he wanted it or not, the Prime Minster has become party to the deepening crisis.

Though Mukherjee rushed to New York on September 25 to meet Manmohan, who was attending the UN General Assembly, and Chidambaram had been in touch with the Prime Minister on the phone, Sonia still had to step in for damage control. On her return home on September 8 from the medical treatment in the US, there was hardly any political news to cheer her up. She has questioned her colleagues about the fallout of the Anna Hazare fiasco. Saddled with a Prime Minister who lacks political authority and a son whose disinterest is only matched by his diffidence, an ailing Sonia does not have the luxury of a quiet recuperation.

There has been speculation ever since she left for treatment that she would appoint Rahul as Congress working president. That has not happened. The main reason for this is Rahul himself. He is not sure of himself, and now it looks like even the party is coming to terms with the reality of a reluctant prince. Soon after the 2G letter crisis broke, Rahul flew to Srinagar where, for two days, he dabbled in Youth Congress matters and breakfasted with his pal, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. Just as he refused to play an active role during the Anna Hazare agitation he has gone out of his way to distance himself from this crisis too.

The four-member core group that Sonia had appointed to run the party when she left for her treatment on August 4 has already been disbanded. It held no structured meetings during the 36 days she was away. This was again an indication of Rahul's reluctance to take charge. When the Hazare agitation was at its peak in August, Rahul led a delegation of MPs to the Prime Minister to talk about the land acquisition bill. Impatient with his disconnect, the MPs surrounded him at 7 Race Course Road after the meeting with Manmohan and pleaded with him to step in. They complained about the Government's mishandling of the Hazare campaign. Though Rahul spoke in Parliament the next day, he did not offer any resolution or display leadership.

What aggravates Sonia's agony is the fact that, set against an heir apparent who is a permanent work in progress is a prime minister who has lost his elan. When Manmohan complained that the Opposition was trying to destabilise his government, Janata Party leader Subramanian Swamy asked, "Does he mean opposition within or outside the Congress?"

The dominant feeling within the Cabinet is that there is a growing need for a political Prime Minister. "All the crises have been political, not economic. We don't need an economist, we need a politician," says a Congress Cabinet minister. There are also few takers for Manmohan's economic policies. "The two arms of the Prime Minister are the pmo and the Planning Commission. Both are out of sync with the party," says the Cabinet minister.

He rattles off a list of Congress Cabinet ministers-Kamal Nath, Jairam Ramesh and M. Veerappa Moily-who are upset with Planning Commission chief Montek Singh Ahluwalia. "To solve the problems of the rural poor, the Planning Commission has hired a team of the urban rich," adds a party general secretary. "Once Pulok Chatterji joins the PMO, then the party will have its man in place there. Right now, there is no connect between the party and the Prime Minister's Office," he said. Added to this leadership vacuum is the mystery about Sonia's illness.

Since the party has not yet been officially briefed about it, the field has been left open to conspiracy theorists. "Even public personalities are entitled to privacy in so far as their personal life is concerned," says Congress spokesperson Manish Tewari. Sonia has never functioned as a 'visible' leader; yet never was the need for her party to get a glimpse of its president greater.

Her spin doctors organised a well-choreographed meeting of the Central Election Committee on September 15, ostensibly to discuss candidates for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls. It provided an ideal showcase of a leader in control. When the Prime Minister drove up to 10 Janpath, she was at the door to receive him and see him off. "She looked at the candidate list and her immediate reaction was why there were so few Congressmen on it," said a senior Congress leader, pointing out that most of the candidates were former bsp and sp politicians. "Rahul then said he would talk to the Youth Congress to suggest some names," added the Congress leader. What he didn't voice was the relief that his party president seemed 'okay'. Later, Congress General Secretary Janardhan Dwivedi told the media that "she looked normal... but it will take her a little time to fully recover".

Until the Pranab vs Chidambaram letter bomb landed in her in-tray, Sonia was content with routine party work such as nominating pcc teams for Goa and Maharashtra and taking a decision on whether the Congress should go it alone in the Tamil Nadu local elections. She has also begun meeting Cabinet ministers and party officials, managing four-five meetings daily.

"She is watching a lot more television than she does normally and is worried about party turf wars," says a Congress leader. Considering the malady afflicting the Government, it could be a long while before the Congress president sees something she likes on TV.