How to Test Hotel Feasibility?

By M H Ahssan

When designing a hotel, the architect and development team need to create a project that is ultimately economically feasible. Unless the hotel's owner is ego driven rather than economically motivated, most investors are looking for a return on their invested capital. Since feasibility means different things to different people, and as a hotel consultant having prepared thousands of feasibility studies, I have been asked to provide my perspective on this topic.

The process I like to use for determining whether a proposed hotel is economically feasible is to compare the total project cost (including land) with the hotel's estimated economic value on the date it opens. A feasible project is one where the economic value is greater than the cost. Accurately estimating the total project cost is a relatively simple process for the architect and development team. However, determining the economic value is much more complicated.

The first step in the valuation process is to perform a market study where the local hotel demand is quantified and allocated among the existing and proposed supply of lodging facilities. The allocation of roomnight demand is based on the relative competitiveness of all the hotels in the market. The end result is a projection of demand captured by the proposed subject hotel, which is then converted into an estimate of annual occupancy. A similar procedure is used to project the average room rate.

The second step is to project the hotel's operating revenue and expenses based on the previously estimated occupancy and room rate. This results in an estimate of annual net operating income. Most consultants use a five- to 10-year projection period, so this process needs to be repeated for each year.

The last step is to convert the projected NOI into an estimate of value using a weighted cost of capital discounted cash flow procedure. The end result is an estimate of economic value that can be compared to the total project cost.

Some consultants will substitute a net present value calculation or determine the internal rate of return (IRR) for the last step. However, I prefer using the economic value approach because you end up comparing "apples with apples" - i.e. cost with value.

As you can see, this process of determining economic value requires local market knowledge, hotel financial expertise and experience with valuation methodology. Luckily for architects and hotel developers, there are two simple rules of thumbs that will provide a rough approximation as to whether a project is economically feasible.

The first thumb rule tests the cost of the land to determine whether it exceeds a supportable economic land value. The following formula calculates economic land value:
Occupancy x ADR x Rooms x 365 x .04 / .08 = Economic Land Value.

As example, a proposed hotel is being considered on a parcel of land that can be acquired for $3,800,000. Zoning permits the development of 200 rooms. Based on local market conditions, the proposed hotel should achieve a stabilized occupancy of 70% and an average room rate of $150. Using these inputs the Economic Land Value would be calculated as follows:
.70 Occupancy x $150 ADR x 200 Rooms x 365 x .04 / .08 = $3,832,500.

The calculation shows the Economic Land Value is above the cost of the land so the developer is not overpaying for the land. If the land cost was $4,000,000 or above, the developer needs to re-evaluate the project because it's not supported by the hotel's underlying economics. Perhaps additional rooms could be added, which would increase the room count or a higher quality of hotel developed would increase the average room rate. This Economic Land Value formula works well in most markets. For prime center city locations the .04 factor can be moved up to .08.

The second rule of thumb is the Average Rate Multiplier formula. This is a very simple way to approximate a hotel's total economic value. The formula is as follows:

ADR x Rooms x 1,000 = Economic Value
Using the numbers from the example above produces the following Economic Value:
$150 x 200 x 1,000 = $30,000,000

If the hotel's total development cost is over $30,000,000, there could be a feasibility problem. In most cases where the development cost is significantly higher than the economic value it is because the local market's average room rate is too low to support the contemplated improvements. In these situations the proposed plans and specifications need to be scaled back in order to produce a lower total project cost, which might then create a feasible project.

One additional point of reference looks at the percentage relationship between the hotel's land cost and the economic value. In this example, the value of the land is approximately 13% of the overall economic value ($3,832,500/30,000,000 = 13%). This relationship should be no more than 15% to 20%. In other parts of the world where labor cost is low, this percentage relationship can be higher.

Using these hotel feasibility rules of thumb combined with a professionally prepared study will insure the architect and developer are not creating a project that has no economic viability. As with any rule of thumb, there are numerous exceptions that need to be factored into the evaluation. Before abandoning a project because the rules don't produce the desired results, it is a good time to call in a professional consultant to prepare a more in depth analysis to either verify or dispute the conclusions produced by the rules of thumb.

Will India-China Economic Dialogue Help Exporters?

By M H Ahssan

Will China really open up its market further for Indian exporters? This question has again come to the fore with yesterday's first-ever Strategic Economic Dialogue between the two nations. During the India-China Joint Group on Economic Relations last year, China had said that it would give India access to some sectors such as pharmaceuticals and IT, but the promise is hardly kept, at least till now. It is expected that that the new round of talks would spark fresh interest for businesses from both the sides.

In the last few years, India-China trade has witnessed a robust growth, crossing the target of $60 billion in 2010. The two nations have set a trade target $100 billion by 2015, which seems achievable considering the recent pace of bilateral trade growth. But despite this growth, India's trade deficit with China, which stood at $20.02 billion in 2010 increasing from $15.87 billion trade in 2009, is still a concern.

Clearly, the recent growth in India-China bilateral trade is favouring the latter. Another worry is that India's exports to China are primarily non-manufactured goods, particularly raw materials, of which only iron ore comprises a whopping 50 percent, but China's exports to India mostly include value-added finished and semi-finished products. This is, needless to say, against the interest of our economy.

Yesterday's dialogue, held against the backdrop of India's growing trade deficit with China, seems to hold some promise as both the countries have agreed "to deepen bilateral investments, further open up markets and share developmental experiences". According to news reports, the two sides have agreed to strengthen cooperation in infrastructure development, energy efficiency, and communication on macro-economic policies. These are certainly very good developments, and if steps are implemented as proposed, both the countries will benefit from these greater commercial interactions.

I feel that India and China, two of the fastest growing economies in the world, should think beyond the history of rivalry and move faster towards greater collaboration as there is a huge scope for both the economies to benefit from each other. For example, there is a lot for India to learn from China in areas like urban development, power projects, and infrastructure. China, on the other hand, can learn from India's success story in the field of information technology and IT enabled services. Also, there is enough scope for Indian and Chinese businesses to participate in infrastructure, transportation and power distribution projects in both the countries .  
 
As far opportunities that could arise for our exporters from greater India-China collaboration are concerned, I also think that China's large domestic automobile market offers huge opportunities for the Indian automotive sector. Moreover, Indian auto companies can also consider to use China as a low cost manufacturing base. In addition, I feel, with China's recently unveiled 12th Five Year Plan, which signals to the nation's gradual policy shift to a domestic consumer-driven economy, Indian exporters can expect a lot from the Chinese market in the coming days.

TELANGANA RAMULAMMA 'VIJAYASHANTI'

By M H Ahssan

The sleepy village of Ramannagudem in Warangal district came alive last week after South Indian action heroine Vijayashanti launched her movement for a separate Telangana state from there. A veteran of 200-odd films, she received a rousing welcome from the village she claims as her ancestral home. Later, thousands of onlookers lined the 250-km route from Ramannagudem to Hyderabad for a glimpse of her.

How far she's willing to go to create Telangana is anybody's guess. But for now, Vijayashanti is competition for the other vocal proponent of the separate state theory—K. Chandrasekhara Rao of the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi (TRS). Prior to last year's elections, Rao had made tall promises, but many feel he has failed to make any progress in pressurising the Centre on the issue.

That's where the south's very own 'Lady Amitabh Bachchan' comes in. Her fans know her as the angry young woman of the screen. Now, they'll be waiting to see if she has the same passion for the Telangana movement. "It's not a new political party, it's a peoples' movement. Anybody who believes in the cause is welcome to join me," Vijayashanti, who quit the BJP a month ago, said. She claims there's been an overwhelming response to her "clarion call" and that she's received feelers from many Telangana politicians. In reality though, she is yet to attract any big names to her camp. But there's one party watching her uneasily—the TRS.

It's proving to be a trying summer for K. Chandrasekhara Rao. On the one hand, his party has been hit by a flurry of resignations after a couple of junior functionaries were slayed by the People's War. There's an uneasiness and fear within the party, especially among the more vulnerable lower rung, after the Naxal diktat that the TRS sever links with the Congress by July 15 or "face the consequences". While security for senior leaders has been stepped up (many have moved to larger cities), there is little protection for the ordinary party worker from the Naxal wrath.

Now Vijayashanti is adding to KCR's headache, highlighting his party's slow progress on the homeland issue. It's no wonder that KCR spent all of last week visiting key leaders in New Delhi including Sonia Gandhi, PM Manmohan Singh and defence minister Pranab Mukherjee, who heads the upa subcommittee on the Telangana issue, to muster support.

However, Vijayashanti, though critical of KCR, is guarded in criticising the TRS leader. "The people are unhappy...I too feel it is not right. But if the TRS leaders are willing to resign from their ministerial posts, we can come under one umbrella," she says.

Meanwhile, it's been a mixed response from the BJP about her leaving the fold. It was considered a political coup for the saffron party when she joined it in the late '90s, a time when the party was struggling to establish itself in the southern states. However, many in the party feel Vijayashanti is a spent force and her decision to leave is a blessing in disguise given her list of extravagant demands, including five-star accommodation and chopper rides every time she went campaigning. "People like her have a shelf life, and I am afraid the expiry date on this one is over," says a senior BJP leader. On her part, the former actress claims she was disillusioned by the party's flip-flop on Telangana.

Of all the parties, the TDP, opposed as it is to any division of the state, is unflinching in its criticism of the actress-turned-politician. "Telangana is being used as a laboratory for political experiments. Everybody wants to exploit the issue... and then dump it after achieving their personal agendas," says former tdp minister Kadiyam Srihari.

Clearly, Vijayashanti knows that Telangana is an emotive issue she can capitalise on.Her entry, if nothing else, is sure to add sound and colour to a dormant Telangana campaign.

Is Anything More Corrupt Than A Govt Buying MPs?

By Balbir K Punj

During a recent meeting in Ralegan Siddhi, Anna Hazare’s team decided to renew its fight for probity in public life. One could say it is also time to judge the impact of his campaign on the system, asking some relevant questions. Has the first, “successful” phase of the movement really touched the collective conscience of ‘civil society’ and affected the attitude of the ruling establishment towards corruption? Or is its influence superficial?

Stripped of hyperbole, the real achievements of the movement are modest. Nothing has changed for the better on the ground. Our venal rulers continue on their course, smug as ever. Otherwise, the two whistle-blowers, Faggan Singh Kulaste and Mahavir Singh Bhagora, former Lok Sabha MPs (both of the BJP), would not be behind bars for exposing the cash-for-votes scam of July 2008, and their third comrade, Ashok Argal, would not be facing arrest.

The establishment’s vindictiveness is blatant of course, but on predictable lines. What is really shocking is the deafening silence on the part of civil society. Is a meaningful crusade for clean public life possible without standing by those who resist temptation and dare pull the plug on graft at the highest level? These three honourable men had done just that.

Actually, the anti-graft crusade started in the lead-up to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, with BJP leader L.K. Advani constituting a task force to go into the issue of corruption at the top and Indian black money stashed abroad. The task force’s analysis hit the nail on the head: the virus begins with people at the top bartering favours at the expense of the exchequer in order to enrich either themselves, their kin, or organisations they or their kin have links with. One recalls the pledge Advani took not to hold any office till investigations into the hawala diary case did not clear his name. He rejoined Parliament only after he was proved innocent in the courts. It is from this that he derives the initiative and moral strength to take up the fight against corruption.

Approached by dalals of the beleaguered Manmohan regime and the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress at the fag end of the previous Lok Sabha term, when the UPA-I government was facing a trust motion on the nuclear deal, the three MPs promptly informed the BJP high command. They had the option of accepting crores in silence, but did not. Instead, as advised, they decided to expose the sordid drama through a sting operation, with the help of a TV channel. The TV channel let them down and they were left with no option but to bring the cash to the Lok Sabha, display it, and expose the sleazy game in front of the entire country. In any other civilised society, such men would have been hailed as heroes and honoured while those who tried to bribe them would have got their just deserts.

It is just the reverse here. The arrest of Amar Singh in the case is part of a cover-up operation. He was but a mercenary, doing a dirty job at the bidding of those who were the ultimate beneficiaries of this murky enterprise. Obviously, the cash did not belong to him. The investigating agency, the Delhi police, has neither tried to trace the origin of the cash nor brought to book the faceless persons who had written the script and directed this squalid drama. The theatre of the absurd is complete. The Delhi police has spared the faceless crooks and put the fearless crusaders behind bars. The message is clear: Say ‘no’ to temptation offered by the Congress and, to be sure, you’ll be damned.

The shameful event and its aftermath is full of ironies. The rulers, swearing by the sanctity and supremacy of Parliament while dealing with Anna’s team, have subverted that very institution. And Anna’s team, which had received nationwide support in its fight against corruption and the corrupt, has been indifferent to this issue, staring at us in the here and now. Why is that? Because the three heroes of this ignoble saga belong to the much-abused and demonised tribe of politicians. They resisted and exposed graft and are paying for it. So shouldn’t ‘civil society’ have rushed to help them?

In fact, the silence of ‘civil society’ on this stormy issue has to be seen in the backdrop of events leading up to the conclusion of Anna’s fast. There is little doubt that those who manipulate the system to fatten themselves are indeed cunning and ingenious. Otherwise, the recent anti-corruption crusade would not have ended with the issue being reduced to whose Lokpal bill should be the template for action.

The scamsters who are now facing trial in the 2G case are claiming that whatever they did has had the written or tacit approval of the prime minister and the then finance minister and that the two should therefore be summoned as witnesses. There was a report the other day that a SEBI board member has revealed that the current finance minister was trying to influence SEBI in cases involving some leading corporates. Surely, this indicates it is the Congress that is the fountainhead of corruption—more so than officials or bureaucrats at any level. Therefore, the focus of the debate on corruption must be on the Centre.

With 24x7 TV channels focusing on the swelling support for Anna’s team and the countrywide concern for the fasting crusader, UPA-II was able first to delineate the minimal demands of the team for the fast to be called off. The campaigners settled on three points, and the entire debate was turned around: instead of fixing the spotlight on those whose corruption was writ on every wall in Delhi, it was directed against an abstraction—corruption in the future. When it is evident who is corrupt now, at the political level, is it not a bit ridiculous to debate a future Lokpal to look at future corruption and the jurisdiction that body should have?

As the concern for Anna’s health rose across the country, the debate was becoming one of ‘civil society’ versus Parliament. In effect, the contention was reduced to a question of semantics. And finally when it all ended, with the whole Parliament thumping the desks and adopting the joint resolution by this demonstration of support, the Congress must have breathed a sigh of relief. The spotlight on the corrupt had been switched off—even if that was only for the time being—and the entire focus was on restraining countrywide corruption in the future; a parliamentary committee was to design the tools for doing that. In this manner, the Congress was able to lead by the nose the debate on black money and corruption.

For the next three months, the country may watch with bated breath how this standing committee, headed by a Congressman, tackles the several proposed versions of the Lokpal bill and arrives at one acceptable to all stakeholders. Meanwhile, the prime minister, who is said to have approved with his silence the handing of 2G licences to the undeserving, may relax. Delhi chief minister Sheila Dixit, exposed by the Shunglu committee and the CAG report on the CWG contracts—the money spent by her government was ten times what the committee headed by Suresh Kalmadi spent—can also take it easy.

So where does the battle against graft and exposing and punishing the corrupt stand at this juncture? No doubt, the stature of Anna and his team has gone up several notches in the public mind. People at large have a sense of victory over the system. Public awareness on corruption and the need to fight it is high. Especially in the middle class. In real terms, however, despite Anna’s campaign, there’s little to show on the ground. The original goal of bringing back Indian monies stashed abroad seems to have been completely forgotten. While the focus is on corruption in generic terms, the most visibly corrupt faces continue to be safe in their positions of power. They continue to manipulate the system to save the guilty and target innocents. An unscrupulous and a ruthless establishment continues to persecute, slander and vilify those who dared to raise their voice against its venality and frauds.

In its second phase, Anna has decided to focus on the long-pending issue of electoral reforms and performance audit of MPs. These are not metaphysical and abstract issues. They have germinated in the given framework of Indian politics. Can there be any meaningful movement on such issues divorced from the given context? Will Phase 2 of the movement also end in a sense of victory but without any tangible achievements to its credit?

A serious Concern - OVERLOADED PLANET

By J Ajit Kumar

It has been quite clear for sometime now, that Earth is an overloaded planet. The six billion human load is unbearable and making life more and more miserable for an increasing number of people every year, though there exists some organisations making a living out of this business of population growth.

Sustainability is the hottest topic in every international forum now and it is quite surprising that all of us are missing the fact that our own planet has already reached unsustainable proportions. The utopian concept of Socialism can be thought of in two ways – bringing in ‘equality’ either by trying to make all people rich or by making everyone poor. By increasing the denominator, whatever be its justification, the chosen route seems to be the latter. At this rate one of our future children will definitely step on the destruction button for planet Earth.

 
India is one of the most overloaded geographical areas in the whole world and within it the state of Kerala presents the extreme limits of population density. Not a single rainy season passes off in Kerala without the spurts of Dengue fever, Rat fever, Cholera, Jaundice etc., etc. What is the most important reason for this? Nothing but an unsustainable number of human beings per square kilometre.


Kerala has one of the maximum density of population and the ‘safe’ inhabitation land area now available is carrying almost double the advisable number of people. The net result is pollution of all water bodies, lack of safe drinking water, lack of infrastructure to process the human waste etc., etc. Almost three fourths of all human problems relate to population explosion and yet there are no serious attempts to control. The revered Justice V.R. Krishna Iyer has recently come out with a report recommending strong measures against population explosion and as usual all religious retarders have jumped in.

Discourage Overproduction
There is no doubt and no two opinions about the need for children to sustain humanity. Nobody has ever questioned that. And nobody questions the relevance of marriage and family in human lives. All the questions now center around the number of children each family must have. But invariably the religious retarders always succeed in confusing birth control measures with abortion and pro-life slogans and defeat any initiatives in population control. All they want is license for uninhibited reproduction like animals.

All forms of excuses (including God) are drawn into the debate to camouflage and confuse any debate between restrictive reproduction for common good versus wanton reproduction with ulterior motives. Though God often finds a mention in their arguments, the real motives behind increasing ‘tribal’ strength is crystal clear to everyone.

It is always the organized religious groups that oppose any restrictions on population growth. The logic is obvious. The strength of any organization is directly proportional to its strength and all organizations want to be strong and powerful. And all organizations are self-centered and bothered only about their own God, their own office bearers and their own tribe in that order. The point they often miss is that the whole world is interconnected and each of us (including our man-made Gods) are dependent on each other.

Any attempt to grow beyond the limits of sustainability will unleash destruction from within our own system. An overcrowded Earth is an unsustainable entity and no amount of organization or religion can remove the limits. Restriction in numbers is one of the basic requirements in any organic system and Earth is no exception.

Encourage Restriction  
Restrictions are often positive when compared to complete ban imposed by religious doctrinaires. Like animals, every man is born free and what ultimately differentiates man from animal is due to the reasonable restrictions imposed on him or her by the society. Our culture is nothing but a sum total of the impact of these restrictions. But for these restrictions and regulations, man will go down the evolution chain again to the level of animals and birds. Present condition of humanity is even more precarious.

We have in our midst a set of people who are monopolizing the custodianship of all morality and liaison with God. Acceptance of reasonable restrictions, as opposed to illogical do’s and dont’s imposed by such monopolizers, is the need of the hour. If they are not shown their place, perpetrators of such obscurantist ideologies will make our lives unbearable mentally also. While population explosion is putting our physical existence at risk, victory for religious obscurantism will make us animals again.

Imposing reasonable restrictions on the size of families should come natural to any society or government in twenty first century. It is common knowledge that Mother Earth cannot sustain a population of more than say 4 or 5 billion humans, which is just one living species among millions of others in this planet. We simply do not have the natural resources to sustain so many human beings and all natural disasters happening now are indeed man-made in a way. And restricting our numbers is the only way to ensure progress and development with social justice.

This has been proven beyond doubt in almost all European countries and states like Kerala in India. The present high standard of living in colony-dependent European countries and self-sufficient Asian states is additional proof for this. The only mistake that happened is the case of some European countries is that they went into a negative growth in population.

Justice Krishna Iyer’s recommendation to Kerala government to impose restrictions, including penalties, on families with more than two children is a progressive step in the right direction. It is exactly what is needed in a progressive society with cent percent literacy, highest rate of family suicides and complete consumerism.

Kerala is not producing anything sufficient enough for itself other than children which further increase its needs. Thus it is caught in vicious circle and the only way to break it is to restrict its population growth. Other than the petty minded religious hierarchy, no one is expected to oppose it. But the famed Kerala elite must speak out and defeat all the religious obscurantism that is overtaking Kerala these days.

Developing Your Critical Thinking Leadership Skills

By M H Ahssan

By taking responsibility for your own leadership critical thinking processes, you are taking action to analyse and adapt your approach to decision-making and problem-solving. You put yourself - and your company - in a much stronger position to lead and succeed in the "new normal" business world.

There is a growing recognition that the old, pre-crisis way of doing business is never coming back. In its place is the "new normal". While some classic leadership strategies and skills will continue to be effective, leaders in this brave new world will need to lead differently - and think differently.

Critical thinking enables leaders at every level to understand the impact of their decisions on the business as a whole and ensures both alignment with organisational goals and accountability for results. 

The "new normal" is a different kind of competitive landscape, buffeted by geopolitics and global instability, rapid technological change, unique financial pressures, a rising tide of data and information to filter through, and the proliferation of new corporate business models.

The mind-set that made leaders successful in the past probably won't ensure success in the future. In fact, several recent studies and surveys have identified critical thinking as the number one requirement for successful leadership in the 21st century. Yet there is mounting evidence that many current and emerging leaders lack this quality. And it is this competency gap that is shaking up and reshaping leadership as we have come to know it.

 Leadership in the "new normal"
In the wake of the economic crisis, we all know what a failure of leadership looks like. The companies that folded in the GFC serve as stark examples of what happens when decisions are based upon erroneous, partially false or incomplete information and when management fails to think clearly and strategically about the full implications of its actions. The resulting fall-out put an end to business as usual and created a "new normal" that looks markedly different from anything anyone has seen before.

Business organisations must be prepared to do things differently if they expect different results. In this demanding, dynamic landscape, it is only natural that they also require a different mind-set from those in charge.

The equation works like this: Thinking drives behaviour; behaviour drives results. So enterprises that want to change the results - and, indeed, change the organisation itself - can achieve the highest leverage by changing the thinking of leaders and managers throughout the organisation.

But what kind of thinking - or rather rethinking - will be required of leaders if they want to succeed in the "new normal"?

Why critical thinking is critical
Critical thinking appears to be exactly what is needed from leaders who are navigating the volatility of the "new normal". Diane Halpern, an award-winning professor of psychology at Claremont McKenna College and a widely read author on the subject, offers this definition in her seminal book, Thought and Knowledge:

"Critical thinking is the use of those cognitive skills or strategies that increase the probability of a desirable outcome. It is used to describe thinking that is purposeful, reasoned, and goal-directed - the kind of thinking involved in solving problems, formulating inferences, calculating likelihoods, and making decisions ... it's the kind of thinking that makes desirable outcomes more likely."

If ever there was a time for clear, discerning, solution-centric thinking, this is it.

Every two years since 1983, Executive Development Associates (EDA) has conducted an extensive survey on trends, growth and the evolution of executive development. The 2009/2010 EDA Trends in Executive Development: A Benchmark Report revealed trouble on the horizon for corporations seeking future business leaders.

To gauge the readiness of the next generation of leadership talent, EDA asked senior executive development professionals to share their views on the strengths and weaknesses of the incoming leadership group - the people who are most likely to fill executive-level positions in the next three to five years - and the subsequent impact on executive development.

The survey identified "hot topics" in executive development for the next two to three years. At the top of the list was leadership, followed by "business acumen, honing skills in strategy execution, leading / managing change, and talent management."

But when asked "What competencies are your leaders lacking?" their responses indicated little confidence that leaders had what it takes to execute in these critical areas successfully. Here's what they said was missing:

 •Strategic thinking
•Leading change
•Ability to create a vision and engage others around it
•Ability to inspire
•Understanding the total enterprise and how the parts work together
What critical thinking looks like

Having established the need for a mind-set shift to more critical thinking, we need to be clear on what that means in the workplace.

In general, critical thinking is the ability to deal with the contradictions and problems of a tumultuous environment in a reasoned, purposeful, productive way. Decisions are made using an approach that is fair, objective, accurate and based on information that is relevant to the situation.

Critical thinking is also reflective and focused, constantly evaluating the thinking process itself. It is thinking with a purpose. Critical thinking requires a healthy dose of skepticism and an equal measure of good judgement.

For decades, companies have relied on the Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal, a widely used assessment tool for evaluating the cognitive ability of current and future leaders. Developed in 1925, the model identifies factors that are key to critical thinking and decision making and predicts judgment, problem solving, creativity, openness to experience and other leadership behaviours.

Five sub-tests measure critical thinking as a composite of attitudes, knowledge and skills:

 •Inference
•Recognition of assumptions
•Deduction
•Interpretation
•Evaluation of arguments

Professionals with high scores in these sub-tests are able to identify and examine the assumptions, influences and biases that might sway them. They stand back from the fray and strategically assess the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions, conclusions or approaches to problems. They make business decisions that answer the right questions, solve the right problems, mitigate risk and improve productivity. They also lead from a position of strength, being able to motivate and move people both inspirationally and intellectually by providing solid reasons for actions.

Whether they lead teams, departments or entire enterprises, leaders who apply the skills of critical thinking to their roles perform at a higher level and offer their organisations a distinct competitive advantage.

Critical thinkers think differently about their impact on the organisation - understanding how their decisions and actions influence business both inside and outside their narrow functional silos. These leaders are able to balance department or team issues with broader company issues and embrace a larger responsibility for the success of the organisation. This keen sense of accountability is what enables them to execute for results now while fulfilling their obligations to positively impact the future.

Leaders who engage in critical thinking also understand the total organisation and how the individual parts work together. Context is key. Now more than ever, business acumen is foundational to effective leadership. It is impossible to apply critical thinking skills to the business of making money without an understanding of the business drivers that connect day-to-day decisions and actions to key financial and strategic performance goals of the organisation. It is one thing to understand one's role as a leader. It is altogether another thing to understand how to set direction and directly affect the outcomes.

Critical thinking is big-picture thinking too. As Hagemann describes it, "Leaders need to be able to comfortably climb to the 30,000-foot view and analyse a dynamic system, while simultaneously and adeptly analysing information to quickly make decisions across levels." Critical thinkers operate from a broad perspective in order to make sure the correct problems are addressed and they are taking acceptable risk. They recognise the difference between short-term gains and sustainable, long-term results and lead accordingly.

The advantages of this kind of leadership behavior are readily apparent. Critical thinking enables leaders at every level to understand the impact of their decisions on the business as a whole and ensures both alignment with organisational goals and accountability for results. It's exactly the type of leadership behaviour demanded by the "new normal" - and exactly what's missing. And this disconnect is likely to intensify over time.

Given the critical-thinking competency gap exposed by the EDA survey and other research, the obvious assumption is that the traditional development process that businesses have relied upon in the past to prepare leaders simply hasn't kept up. So, what's the solution? To accelerate development and raise leadership accountability to a whole new level of awareness and action, there needs to be a new emphasis on critical thinking in leadership development.

Learning to think like a leader
The good news is critical thinking is a skill that can be taught. According to Halpern, "There is a large body of evidence showing that people can learn to think better. Of course, education makes us all more intelligent, but critical thinking is more focused. Everyone can learn to recognise and use the skills of critical thinking, and we can always get better."

New competencies, however, may require a deeper, more analytical approach. The challenge today is not to discard what has been learned in the past, but to build upon traditional competencies with a whole new and more complex set of skills, tools and sensitivities.

Leaders in the new normal need to learn how to be discerning, how to think clearly and wisely, and how to be accountable for their impact on the business.

Discovery learning in leadership courses
Critical thinking can be impacted by the right leadership courses. However, the process can be more challenging than improving a behavioural skill, because you can't easily measure it. Success is demonstrated in results.

As with any skill, intellectual or otherwise, the key to building critical thinking - and achieving successful results - is practice. Research has demonstrated that people learn best when they are actively involved in the learning process and engaging in the behaviours they want to learn. But what's vital in developing critical thinking skills is framing the concept of practice within a relevant, job-related context.

Acquiring critical thinking skills requires participating in learning experiences that force you to consider new ways of thinking about and acting within complex situations that are directly related to the work you do. You need the opportunity to respond to issues, reflect on and reframe your experiences, develop new thinking, and, in turn, engage in new behaviours and actions that are relevant to your position and objectives.

Developing your critical thinking skills
In addition to participating in these types of leadership courses, leaders can take charge of their own critical thinking development by taking these actions:

 •Get some feedback about your critical thinking skills from a trusted boss, colleague or coach
Are you jumping to conclusions or using a reasoned, analytic process as you work toward a goal? Are you able to put aside biases and assumptions during analysis and decision-making? What kind of "thinker" are you perceived to be and why?

•Challenge yourself to develop a deeper understanding of your company's business, especially its financial and strategic drivers of success
Are you clear about what drives the organisation's decisions, how financial success is achieved and how you impact both strategy and the bottom line? Are you making decisions that are aligned with this understanding? Is your knowledge of the business strong enough to drive behaviour and to engage teams and employees?

•Use multiple sources of data to form an "information web" before making a decision or forming a conclusion
Are you asking a lot of questions? Identifying stakeholders and their issues and opinions? Separating facts from assumptions? Are you using the Internet as "one" source of information rather than "the" source? Can you analyse information from different perspectives and viewpoints?

•Take time to think
Are you rising above the fray when it's important to make a decision, take action or form an opinion? Are you aware of the distractions getting in the way of your thinking time and taking action to minimize these distractions? Are you finding time and space to let your mind focus and reflect on important issues?

•Ask for input, critique and opinions from others as you analyse alternatives
Are you checking tentative conclusions with others? Using peers, coaches or mentors to critique your thinking process? Are you willing to open your mind to other ideas or alternatives?

KINGMAX Unveils 128 GB Huge Capacity USB 3.0 Flash Drive

By M H Ahssan

▲ KINGMAX 128GB Huge Capacity USB 3.0 Flash Drive, the ED-01 KINGMAX, a renowned leading memory and flash drive manufacturer, has recently unveiled 128GB huge capacity USB 3.0 flash drive, the ED-01. With huge capacity, the ED-01 flash drive not only meets the market’s demands for large media file storage and transferring, but also transports the user to a super-speedy experience that every second counts. The ED-01 sports a sleek contoured design that stands out from its competitors and wins design award from media. It has a delicate read/write LED indicator to display the flash drive’s status while in use and the unique Clip-Cap design that prevents the cap from accidental drop-offs or loss. Besides, made with durable plastic combined with a special finishing procedure, the leather-like texture of the ED-01 is warm and smooth to the touch. Its elegant, low-profile design will demonstrate your taste for luxury and that you appreciate and use only the latest in technological advances. When the era of USB 3.0 comes, the demands of super speed and huge capacity storage device increased. Using USB 3.0 full-duplex bidirectional synchronization data transfer technology, the ED-01 read speed at 66 MB/sec and write speed at up to 41 MB/sec. Moreover, its capacity upgrades to 128GB and backward-compatible with USB 2.0. Whether data is HD movies, photos or large presentation files with rich media, the ED-01 will transfer and storage large data in a short period of time. The ED-01 USB 3.0 flash drive is fully compliant with the European Union’s RoHS (Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive) standards. It also passed CE certification in the EU, met the United States’ FCC criteria and was awarded the latest Windows 7 certificate that guarantees its compatibility with operating systems. All KINGMAX products are manufactured under the most stringent quality control measures and rigorous tests, to ensure each and every product meets the highest standards for quality. The ED-01’s product warranty further ensures consumers that they’ve purchased a reliable and reassuring experience. Specifications: ‧ Interface: USB 3.0 ‧ Storage: 8GB/16GB/32GB/64GB/128GB ‧ Dimensions: 74.5 x 20 x 9 mm (L x W x H) ‧ Weight: 10.5 g ‧ Color: Black Features: ‧ Compatible with USB 2.0 ‧ LED light indicator ‧ Clip-Cap design to prevent cap loss ‧ 5-year product warranty

BEST WRITING IN ARCHIVES - 'Raw is Training 600 Baluchis in Afghanistan'

THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW OUR READERS THE BEST WRITINGS OF OUR WRITERS.  - SOME EXCLUSIVE PICKS FROM THE BEST WRITINGS.  PLEASE READ ON.. EDITOR

Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed is a man who wears many caps: he is the Pakistan Senate foreign relations committee chairman, the secretary-general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, and widely regarded as Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's right-hand man. A former editor of a major national daily, Hussain knows a thing or two about the unrest in Baluchistan. It was a parliamentary committee headed by him that had recommended that the government grant autonomy to the Baluchis, and ensure their province wasn't forgotten in the rapid economic development of Pakistan.

M H AHSSAN met Hussain at his residence in Islamabad's upscale E-sector, recently on his visit to Pakistan. Though the joke here is that the E is for Extremely Rich, Hussain's own home is modest. His phone keeps ringing as he takes calls from politicians of all ideological hues. Between calls, he talks about the Great Game India's playing inside Afghanistan and its possibility of destabilizing the region.  << CLICK HERE >>