By M H Ahssan
Ashok Kumar (name changed) was sounded off for the Secunderabad Lok Sabha by the Prajarajyam. But he declined the offer and instead switched over to another constituency. Reason: He felt that his party was not strong in the assembly segments in Secunderabad. “It would be difficult for me to win from here, even though I may have been a strong candidate. Our electorate is not so mature. They cast their vote for the Lok Sabha for the same party as they do for the assembly,” Kumar told HNN. Ashok Kumar’s opinion was echoed by many other Lok Sabha candidates in the state.
“I know that ultimately my fate depends on the performance of candidates for assembly seats that form part of my Lok Sabha constituency. Therefore, I need to keep them energised,” said a Congress candidate who does not want to be identified.
Political analysts say that this time in Andhra Pradesh, more than ever before, the electorate is unlikely to make a distinction between the assembly and the Lok Sabha elections.
HNN check at the ground level reflected this reality. For example in Tirupati, a manager when asked about the prospects of candidates for the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat was nonplussed.
“Chiranjeevi,” he muttered and had to be reminded that the query was about the Lok Sabha and not about the assembly seat that the mega star is contesting. In the same way when Raju, a waiter at a hotel in Medak quizzed about the polls named - very confidently -the assembly candidate who he thought would win. But remained confused when pressed to reply about his favourite for the Lok Sabha. “I do not know,” he said as if he was not even aware that poll for the Parliament was being held.
Analysts said that this reality of the assembly poll being supreme is the reason for two Union ministers, Renuka Chowdhary and Pallam Raju, moving heaven and earth to change some candidates who had been named to contest assembly segments that formed part of their Lok Sabha constituencies. “The duo understood that with weak or inimical candidates their chances would be marred. Hence their extreme reactions,” an analyst said.
The reasons for the electorate not making a distinction between an assembly vote and a Lok Sabha vote is deeply sociological and a reflection of the way they see the polity. “India is a huge country and each state has an ethos of its own. Each state is also self-contained. This is true of politics as well. Most people do not look beyond Hyderabad. New Delhi is a far off place,” explained an analyst. The reality is also portrayed by the regional press whose front page mostly covers the state of affairs pertaining to Andhra Pradesh.
“Decisions taken by the state government impact the people directly. Centre’s decisions are perceived not to have an indirect effect. That is why the greater interest in assembly elections,” reasons an IAS officer.
The Parliament elections would come into focus, if there is a strong national issue that becomes central to the elections like, say, national integrity.
But this time around there is nothing of this sort, leading to the Lok Sabha poll getting relegated to the background.
On the contrary, the assembly elections have become more interesting what with the expectations of a three way fight.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
INCREDIBLE LEADER - Babu JagJivan Ram
By M H Ahssan
Jagjivan Ram was one of the trusted leaders of the scheduled caster of the pre-independence era. Jagjivan Ram (5 April 1908 - 6 July 1986), known popularly as Babuji was a freedom fighter and a social reformer hailing from the backward classes of Bihar in India. He served as a minister in the Indian parliament with various portfolios for more than forty years, and also served as the Deputy Prime Minister of India.He is also well known for "forgeting" to pay his taxes for 14 years.
Early life
Jagjivan Ram was born at Chandwa near Arrah in Bihar. Jagjivan Ram passed his matriculation in the first division and joined the Banaras Hindu University where he was awarded the Birla scholarship. He received a B.Sc. degree from the University of Calcutta in 1931. When popular rule was introduced in 1935, both the nationalists and the British loyalists sought him because of his first-hand knowledge of the social and economic situation in Bihar. He chose to go with the nationalists, and was elected to the Bihar assembly in 1937. However, he resigned his membership on the issue of irrigation cess. In 1935, he contributed to the establishment of the All-India Depressed Classes League, an organization dedicated to attaining equality for untouchables. He was also drawn into the Indian National Congress, and in the early 1940s was imprisoned twice for his active participation in the Satyagraha and the Quit India Movements.
Parliamentary career
In 1946 he became the youngest minister in Jawaharlal Nehru's provisional government and, as a Labour minister, he was a part of the prestigious high profile Indian delegation that attended the International conference on labour on 16 August 1947 in Geneva along with the great Gandhian Bihar Bibhuti Dr. Anugrah Narayan Sinha;[1] his chief political mentor and also the then head of the delegation. He served as Labour minister until 1952. Later he also held the posts of minister for Communications (1952–56), for Transport and railways (1956–62), and for Transport and communications (1962–63).
In Indira Gandhi's government he worked as minister for Labour, employment, and rehabilitation (1966–67), minister for Food and agriculture (1967–70). When the Congress Party split in 1969, Jagjivan Ram joined the camp led by Indira Gandhi, and became the president of that faction of Congress. He worked as the minister of Defence (1970-74) making him the virtual No. 2 in the cabinet, minister for Agriculture and irrigation (1974-77). It was during his tenure as the minister of Defence that the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was fought, and Bangladesh achieved independence. While loyal to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi for most of the Indian Emergency, in 1977 he along with five other politicians resigned from the Cabinet and formed the Congress for Democracy party, within the Janata coalition.
A few days before the elections, on a Sunday, Jagjivan Ram addressed an Opposition rally at the famous Ram Lila Grounds in Delhi. The national broadcaster Doordarshan allegedly attempted to stop crowds from participating in the demonstration by telecasting the blockbuster movie Bobby. The rally still drew large crowds, and a newspaper headline the next day ran "Babu beats Bobby" . He was the Deputy Prime Minister of India when Morarji Desai was the Prime Minister, from 1977 to 1979. However, he was once again given the defence portfolio. Disillusioned with the Janata party he formed his own party, the Congress (J). He remained a member of Parliament till his death in 1986, after over forty years as a parliamentarian. His uninterrupted representation in the Parliament from 1936 to 1986 was a world record, until Tony Benn overtook him by serving 51 years (1950-2001) in the British parliament.
Scouting
He served as President of the Bharat Scouts and Guides from September 1976 to April 1983.
Legacy
The place he was cremated has been turned into the memorial Samata Sthal, and his birth anniversary is observed as Samata Diwas. His daughter, Meira Kumar, is a prominent INC leader and is the Minister for Social Justice in the Manmohan Singh government.
Recently, prime minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, has said that Babu Jagjivan Ram's legacy of struggle and service to the nation will continue to inspire us for generations to come. Speaking at the Babu Jagjivan Ram Centenary Seminar on Agriculture Revolutions, Inclusive Growth and State Policies, here today, the Prime Minister said that his life of intense struggle, great service and sacrifice will continue to guide all those who suffer deprivation and discrimination. He also said Babuji's lasting message of social equality is of critical significance for our times marked by impressive progress in the economic field. By combining his social vision with our approach to nation building, we can make our growth processes more inclusive as they must be if they are to meet the aspirations of our people, he added.
“It is indeed an honour for me to be here in your midst today and participate in a seminar associated with the birth centenary celebrations of a great national leader the Late Babu Jagjivan Ram. It is all the more relevant that the theme of the seminar being organized today is on agriculture – a sector which is heavily indebted to Babuji for his immense contributions and which is a matter of renewed concern and renewed attention today. It is appropriate that as we commemorate Babuji's centenary, we also remember his contributions across the entire breadth of our economy and polity and Indian society.
Babuji would have been a hundred years old now. Even though he is not with us in physical form, his legacy of struggle and service to the nation continue to inspire us and will continue to inspire for generations to come. A product of our freedom struggle, he was deeply influenced by Mahatma Gandhi. He continued to cherish the values of our independence movement even as he achieved remarkable success in our politics and in our public life. Coming from an extremely deprived background from a region known for its caste consciousness, he showed tremendous determination, tenacity and the will to succeed. His spectacular achievements testify to his merit, hard struggle and exceptional courage. Inspite of the social exclusion he suffered, he demonstrated an iron will in fighting against injustice of all kinds.
Rendering service to those who were on the margins of society remained central to his life and his work. He became one of the key personalities of our freedom movement around whom people gathered to serve the cause of social reform and social justice. While striving for social reform and abolition of untouchability, he stressed on both empowerment of Dalits and a change in the heart among others in the social order. It was demonstrative of an approach which Mahatma Gandhi stressed. Babuji described casteism as a dangerous evil and fervently pleaded for a revolutionary change to put an end to this age old malady. His life was a living example of a long struggle for establishing a casteless society in our country.
Apart from being a great agent of social change, Babuji was an administrator par excellence. The many portfolios he handled for three decades as a Minister in the Union Cabinet demonstrate his administrative calibre, efficiency and sound sense of judgement and leadership. Many of our progressive legislations safeguarding the interests of labour are a result of his initiatives as our Labour Minister. He made history as the Defence Minister of our country, providing remarkable leadership to our armed forces in the Bangladesh war in 1971.
It was during his tenure as the Agriculture Minister that the country achieved self-sufficiency in food grain production. It is indeed apt that, today, as we discuss the challenges confronting our agricultural sector, we once again reflect on the leadership provided by Babuji at a time of grave crisis in an earlier era. We need to understand the role played by visionary leadership in making a difference to our agricultural sector. I am very happy that our great scientist, Dr. Swaminathan is here with us to provide us guidance and support as we chart out a new course for agricultural renovation and revival. We once again need such vision and such leadership of the type provided by Babu Jagjivan Ram if our agriculture is to meet the requirements of the coming decades.
Babuji's political and administrative skills, combined with his vision for a democratic social order, make him stand tall as a crusader for social equality. It is important for us to follow in his footsteps to address the challenges faced by our society in this 21st century. While celebrating his birth centenary, let us rededicate ourselves to his ideals.
Mahatma Gandhi once referred to Babuji and wrote “My heart goes out in respectful admiration to Jagjivan Ram for his having emerged as the purest gold out of fire”. Such was the regard that Mahatma Gandhi had for Babuji. Babuji, who commanded the respect of Gandhiji, later commanded the respect of the whole nation for his role as a freedom fighter, a great statesman and a fighter for a just social order. His life of intense struggle, great service and sacrifice will continue to guide all those who suffer deprivation and discrimination. His lasting message of social equality is of critical significance for our times marked by impressive progress in the economic field. By combining his social vision with our approach to nation building, we can make our growth processes more inclusive as they must be if they are to meet the aspirations of our people. That will be our real tribute to Babu Jagjivan Ram. I join all of you in paying my homage to this great son of our country and a builder of modern India.”
Also Read: Tribute to Babu Jagjivan Ram
Jagjivan Ram was one of the trusted leaders of the scheduled caster of the pre-independence era. Jagjivan Ram (5 April 1908 - 6 July 1986), known popularly as Babuji was a freedom fighter and a social reformer hailing from the backward classes of Bihar in India. He served as a minister in the Indian parliament with various portfolios for more than forty years, and also served as the Deputy Prime Minister of India.He is also well known for "forgeting" to pay his taxes for 14 years.
Early life
Jagjivan Ram was born at Chandwa near Arrah in Bihar. Jagjivan Ram passed his matriculation in the first division and joined the Banaras Hindu University where he was awarded the Birla scholarship. He received a B.Sc. degree from the University of Calcutta in 1931. When popular rule was introduced in 1935, both the nationalists and the British loyalists sought him because of his first-hand knowledge of the social and economic situation in Bihar. He chose to go with the nationalists, and was elected to the Bihar assembly in 1937. However, he resigned his membership on the issue of irrigation cess. In 1935, he contributed to the establishment of the All-India Depressed Classes League, an organization dedicated to attaining equality for untouchables. He was also drawn into the Indian National Congress, and in the early 1940s was imprisoned twice for his active participation in the Satyagraha and the Quit India Movements.
Parliamentary career
In 1946 he became the youngest minister in Jawaharlal Nehru's provisional government and, as a Labour minister, he was a part of the prestigious high profile Indian delegation that attended the International conference on labour on 16 August 1947 in Geneva along with the great Gandhian Bihar Bibhuti Dr. Anugrah Narayan Sinha;[1] his chief political mentor and also the then head of the delegation. He served as Labour minister until 1952. Later he also held the posts of minister for Communications (1952–56), for Transport and railways (1956–62), and for Transport and communications (1962–63).
In Indira Gandhi's government he worked as minister for Labour, employment, and rehabilitation (1966–67), minister for Food and agriculture (1967–70). When the Congress Party split in 1969, Jagjivan Ram joined the camp led by Indira Gandhi, and became the president of that faction of Congress. He worked as the minister of Defence (1970-74) making him the virtual No. 2 in the cabinet, minister for Agriculture and irrigation (1974-77). It was during his tenure as the minister of Defence that the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was fought, and Bangladesh achieved independence. While loyal to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi for most of the Indian Emergency, in 1977 he along with five other politicians resigned from the Cabinet and formed the Congress for Democracy party, within the Janata coalition.
A few days before the elections, on a Sunday, Jagjivan Ram addressed an Opposition rally at the famous Ram Lila Grounds in Delhi. The national broadcaster Doordarshan allegedly attempted to stop crowds from participating in the demonstration by telecasting the blockbuster movie Bobby. The rally still drew large crowds, and a newspaper headline the next day ran "Babu beats Bobby" . He was the Deputy Prime Minister of India when Morarji Desai was the Prime Minister, from 1977 to 1979. However, he was once again given the defence portfolio. Disillusioned with the Janata party he formed his own party, the Congress (J). He remained a member of Parliament till his death in 1986, after over forty years as a parliamentarian. His uninterrupted representation in the Parliament from 1936 to 1986 was a world record, until Tony Benn overtook him by serving 51 years (1950-2001) in the British parliament.
Scouting
He served as President of the Bharat Scouts and Guides from September 1976 to April 1983.
Legacy
The place he was cremated has been turned into the memorial Samata Sthal, and his birth anniversary is observed as Samata Diwas. His daughter, Meira Kumar, is a prominent INC leader and is the Minister for Social Justice in the Manmohan Singh government.
Recently, prime minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, has said that Babu Jagjivan Ram's legacy of struggle and service to the nation will continue to inspire us for generations to come. Speaking at the Babu Jagjivan Ram Centenary Seminar on Agriculture Revolutions, Inclusive Growth and State Policies, here today, the Prime Minister said that his life of intense struggle, great service and sacrifice will continue to guide all those who suffer deprivation and discrimination. He also said Babuji's lasting message of social equality is of critical significance for our times marked by impressive progress in the economic field. By combining his social vision with our approach to nation building, we can make our growth processes more inclusive as they must be if they are to meet the aspirations of our people, he added.
“It is indeed an honour for me to be here in your midst today and participate in a seminar associated with the birth centenary celebrations of a great national leader the Late Babu Jagjivan Ram. It is all the more relevant that the theme of the seminar being organized today is on agriculture – a sector which is heavily indebted to Babuji for his immense contributions and which is a matter of renewed concern and renewed attention today. It is appropriate that as we commemorate Babuji's centenary, we also remember his contributions across the entire breadth of our economy and polity and Indian society.
Babuji would have been a hundred years old now. Even though he is not with us in physical form, his legacy of struggle and service to the nation continue to inspire us and will continue to inspire for generations to come. A product of our freedom struggle, he was deeply influenced by Mahatma Gandhi. He continued to cherish the values of our independence movement even as he achieved remarkable success in our politics and in our public life. Coming from an extremely deprived background from a region known for its caste consciousness, he showed tremendous determination, tenacity and the will to succeed. His spectacular achievements testify to his merit, hard struggle and exceptional courage. Inspite of the social exclusion he suffered, he demonstrated an iron will in fighting against injustice of all kinds.
Rendering service to those who were on the margins of society remained central to his life and his work. He became one of the key personalities of our freedom movement around whom people gathered to serve the cause of social reform and social justice. While striving for social reform and abolition of untouchability, he stressed on both empowerment of Dalits and a change in the heart among others in the social order. It was demonstrative of an approach which Mahatma Gandhi stressed. Babuji described casteism as a dangerous evil and fervently pleaded for a revolutionary change to put an end to this age old malady. His life was a living example of a long struggle for establishing a casteless society in our country.
Apart from being a great agent of social change, Babuji was an administrator par excellence. The many portfolios he handled for three decades as a Minister in the Union Cabinet demonstrate his administrative calibre, efficiency and sound sense of judgement and leadership. Many of our progressive legislations safeguarding the interests of labour are a result of his initiatives as our Labour Minister. He made history as the Defence Minister of our country, providing remarkable leadership to our armed forces in the Bangladesh war in 1971.
It was during his tenure as the Agriculture Minister that the country achieved self-sufficiency in food grain production. It is indeed apt that, today, as we discuss the challenges confronting our agricultural sector, we once again reflect on the leadership provided by Babuji at a time of grave crisis in an earlier era. We need to understand the role played by visionary leadership in making a difference to our agricultural sector. I am very happy that our great scientist, Dr. Swaminathan is here with us to provide us guidance and support as we chart out a new course for agricultural renovation and revival. We once again need such vision and such leadership of the type provided by Babu Jagjivan Ram if our agriculture is to meet the requirements of the coming decades.
Babuji's political and administrative skills, combined with his vision for a democratic social order, make him stand tall as a crusader for social equality. It is important for us to follow in his footsteps to address the challenges faced by our society in this 21st century. While celebrating his birth centenary, let us rededicate ourselves to his ideals.
Mahatma Gandhi once referred to Babuji and wrote “My heart goes out in respectful admiration to Jagjivan Ram for his having emerged as the purest gold out of fire”. Such was the regard that Mahatma Gandhi had for Babuji. Babuji, who commanded the respect of Gandhiji, later commanded the respect of the whole nation for his role as a freedom fighter, a great statesman and a fighter for a just social order. His life of intense struggle, great service and sacrifice will continue to guide all those who suffer deprivation and discrimination. His lasting message of social equality is of critical significance for our times marked by impressive progress in the economic field. By combining his social vision with our approach to nation building, we can make our growth processes more inclusive as they must be if they are to meet the aspirations of our people. That will be our real tribute to Babu Jagjivan Ram. I join all of you in paying my homage to this great son of our country and a builder of modern India.”
Also Read: Tribute to Babu Jagjivan Ram
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Who's afraid of the Third Front?
By Rajdeep Sardesai
Remember the classic Sholay dialogue, "in the night when a child is crying, the mother says, go to sleep or Gabbar Singh will come." A similar warning is now being echoed amongst India's elite: only this time it isn't some gun-toting dacoit who is spreading fear, but the prospect of a third front government that has India Inc and their political patrons scurrying for cover. The BJP calls it a 'parking lot', the Congress a recipe for anarchy; but is a third front government such a frightening idea?
Much of the anxiety stems from the ghost of Deve Gowda returning to haunt the political system. Deve Gowda's rise to prime ministership in 1996 was accompanied by a mix of condescension and contempt. Until he occupied 7 Race Course Road, few outside Karnataka had heard of the humble farmer from Hardanhalli. He didn't know Hindi, had no previous experience at the Centre, and yes, seemed to have a penchant for dozing off in public. A few of us forget that the rustic Gowda had the urbane P Chidambaram as finance minister. What we do remember is a one year period when it seemed that the office of the prime minister had been taken over by a political interloper who a large part of the country simply could not identify with.
Deve Gowda gave way to IK Gujral, another prime minister to be plucked out of anonymity. Atleast Gowda had been nurtured in the cut and thrust of Karnataka politics, Gujral had been a semi-retired seminarist till he was chosen as a 'consensus' candidate by the then (dis)United Front. Like Gowda, Gujral's government too could not last a year, convincing the skeptics that the idea of a Third Front government was synonymous with instability and chaos. Even the former prime minister, and original third front messiah, the late VP Singh was forced to admit, "A third front is feasible, but I am not sure it is desirable."
Take the feasibility quotient first. A third front government would require not just the Congress and the BJP combined to end up with less than 272 seats (a possibility that cannot be ruled out), but would also need the non-BJP, non-Congress parties to come together on a joint platform. In 1996, these groups were able to find a common glue in anti-congressism backed by anti-BJPism. Thirteen years later, this common thread has been weakened considerably. When the avowedly 'secular' DMK becomes a key ally of a Vajpayee government, when the Lohiates of the Samajwadi party prop up a Congress-led government, the ideological divides begin to blur.
A Mulayam-Lalu-Paswan embracing each other may signal a temporary realignment of old allies struggling to survive, but their made-for-television smiles cannot conceal their conflicting ambitions. A Paswan may tie up with Lalu in Bihar, but there is little chance that he will support his fellow Bihari at the center. Ditto the case with the two Yadavs. Which is why, interestingly, each of them still swears by Manmohan Singh as their prime ministerial nominee even while contesting the Congress in the states.
A Mayawati might have been a little more open with her national ambitions than the others, but she too can hardly expect to become a magnet around whom the other regional satraps will revolve. With around 40 MPs in her kitty, the best she can aspire for is a role as a kingmaker who could provide support to one of the two main pre poll alliances. The other power woman in this election, Jayalalithaa too, is similarly constrained: the empress of Poes Garden is unlikely to become a pivot for a dramatic new political alignment.
The only grouping which remains committed to the idea of a Third Front is the left. For the left, the third front is its natural habitat: it provides legitimacy to their claim to be equidistant from the Congress and the BJP. And yet, its obvious that this policy of equidistance cannot dilute the left's primary goal of keeping the sangh parivar out of the power matrix. While individual left leaders may have a problem with Manmohan Singh, as a collective the left is acutely aware that it cannot afford to create a situation that allows the BJP a shot at power. Which is why their so-called leadership of the third front is little more than a stopgap arrangement, designed to increase their own post poll political leverage.
But if the third front is unlikely to take off, why the animosity to its very existence? Partly, it has to do with the fact that the Indian elite still cant come to terms with 'outsiders' like a Mayawati or an Amar Singh seeking space on the political high table. It also has to do with the fact that a majority of the regional bosses have sadly failed to observe the ethical standards expected of those aspiring to the highest office in the country. A regional coalition is now equated with cash and carry politics, where each party offers itself to the highest bidder, where transfers and postings become key areas of decision-making, where governance becomes a casualty in the desperate desire for self-aggrandisement.
And yet, the rise of these leaders is directly co-related to the failure of the two big 'national' parties to adapt, either ideologically or organizationally, to the aspirations of a more federal and diverse polity. The Congress is still struggling to adjust to its status as Lalu Yadav's 'C' team in Bihar even while doing precious little on the ground to revive itself. The BJP, as the Varun episode has revealed, is still unwilling to shed its historical baggage. If the two national parties cannot create the basis for their social and political expansion, then why shouldn't the smaller parties seek their own pound of flesh in any coalition arrangement?
It should be no surprise then that both the UPA and the NDA are going into elections 2009 in a shrunken state. Both, in a sense, are artificial coalitions, driven by political opportunism, and not through any common minimum programme as is claimed . Both reflect the complete dependence of the national parties on regional forces. Both mirror the declining role of the principal poles of Indian politics. Maybe, a non-Congress, non-BJP government will frighten away the investor a la Gabbar. But ironically, it may just be the final wake-up call the two main parties need to get their act together before its too late.
Remember the classic Sholay dialogue, "in the night when a child is crying, the mother says, go to sleep or Gabbar Singh will come." A similar warning is now being echoed amongst India's elite: only this time it isn't some gun-toting dacoit who is spreading fear, but the prospect of a third front government that has India Inc and their political patrons scurrying for cover. The BJP calls it a 'parking lot', the Congress a recipe for anarchy; but is a third front government such a frightening idea? Much of the anxiety stems from the ghost of Deve Gowda returning to haunt the political system. Deve Gowda's rise to prime ministership in 1996 was accompanied by a mix of condescension and contempt. Until he occupied 7 Race Course Road, few outside Karnataka had heard of the humble farmer from Hardanhalli. He didn't know Hindi, had no previous experience at the Centre, and yes, seemed to have a penchant for dozing off in public. A few of us forget that the rustic Gowda had the urbane P Chidambaram as finance minister. What we do remember is a one year period when it seemed that the office of the prime minister had been taken over by a political interloper who a large part of the country simply could not identify with.
Deve Gowda gave way to IK Gujral, another prime minister to be plucked out of anonymity. Atleast Gowda had been nurtured in the cut and thrust of Karnataka politics, Gujral had been a semi-retired seminarist till he was chosen as a 'consensus' candidate by the then (dis)United Front. Like Gowda, Gujral's government too could not last a year, convincing the skeptics that the idea of a Third Front government was synonymous with instability and chaos. Even the former prime minister, and original third front messiah, the late VP Singh was forced to admit, "A third front is feasible, but I am not sure it is desirable."
Take the feasibility quotient first. A third front government would require not just the Congress and the BJP combined to end up with less than 272 seats (a possibility that cannot be ruled out), but would also need the non-BJP, non-Congress parties to come together on a joint platform. In 1996, these groups were able to find a common glue in anti-congressism backed by anti-BJPism. Thirteen years later, this common thread has been weakened considerably. When the avowedly 'secular' DMK becomes a key ally of a Vajpayee government, when the Lohiates of the Samajwadi party prop up a Congress-led government, the ideological divides begin to blur.
A Mulayam-Lalu-Paswan embracing each other may signal a temporary realignment of old allies struggling to survive, but their made-for-television smiles cannot conceal their conflicting ambitions. A Paswan may tie up with Lalu in Bihar, but there is little chance that he will support his fellow Bihari at the center. Ditto the case with the two Yadavs. Which is why, interestingly, each of them still swears by Manmohan Singh as their prime ministerial nominee even while contesting the Congress in the states.
A Mayawati might have been a little more open with her national ambitions than the others, but she too can hardly expect to become a magnet around whom the other regional satraps will revolve. With around 40 MPs in her kitty, the best she can aspire for is a role as a kingmaker who could provide support to one of the two main pre poll alliances. The other power woman in this election, Jayalalithaa too, is similarly constrained: the empress of Poes Garden is unlikely to become a pivot for a dramatic new political alignment.
The only grouping which remains committed to the idea of a Third Front is the left. For the left, the third front is its natural habitat: it provides legitimacy to their claim to be equidistant from the Congress and the BJP. And yet, its obvious that this policy of equidistance cannot dilute the left's primary goal of keeping the sangh parivar out of the power matrix. While individual left leaders may have a problem with Manmohan Singh, as a collective the left is acutely aware that it cannot afford to create a situation that allows the BJP a shot at power. Which is why their so-called leadership of the third front is little more than a stopgap arrangement, designed to increase their own post poll political leverage.
But if the third front is unlikely to take off, why the animosity to its very existence? Partly, it has to do with the fact that the Indian elite still cant come to terms with 'outsiders' like a Mayawati or an Amar Singh seeking space on the political high table. It also has to do with the fact that a majority of the regional bosses have sadly failed to observe the ethical standards expected of those aspiring to the highest office in the country. A regional coalition is now equated with cash and carry politics, where each party offers itself to the highest bidder, where transfers and postings become key areas of decision-making, where governance becomes a casualty in the desperate desire for self-aggrandisement.
And yet, the rise of these leaders is directly co-related to the failure of the two big 'national' parties to adapt, either ideologically or organizationally, to the aspirations of a more federal and diverse polity. The Congress is still struggling to adjust to its status as Lalu Yadav's 'C' team in Bihar even while doing precious little on the ground to revive itself. The BJP, as the Varun episode has revealed, is still unwilling to shed its historical baggage. If the two national parties cannot create the basis for their social and political expansion, then why shouldn't the smaller parties seek their own pound of flesh in any coalition arrangement?
It should be no surprise then that both the UPA and the NDA are going into elections 2009 in a shrunken state. Both, in a sense, are artificial coalitions, driven by political opportunism, and not through any common minimum programme as is claimed . Both reflect the complete dependence of the national parties on regional forces. Both mirror the declining role of the principal poles of Indian politics. Maybe, a non-Congress, non-BJP government will frighten away the investor a la Gabbar. But ironically, it may just be the final wake-up call the two main parties need to get their act together before its too late.
THE BIG VOTE 2009 - 'Bharat ki Aam Aurat'
By M H Ahssan
From Kalawati to Shakuntala, politicians are wooing the aam aurat, but activists say that much needs to be done for women's emancipation
Kalawati, a hapless housewife in a remote village of Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, became a household name when the Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi used her story to make a passionate plea for the Indo-American nuclear deal in Parliament last year. For Kalawati and millions like her, nuclear energy will revolutionise life, he said. More recently, Omprakash Baburao Kadu, an independent legislator from Achalpur, chose a woman named Shakuntala of Rai Ka Purva village in Amethi as his mascot to take on the Gandhi scion.
Almost confined to their kitchens till now, Kalawati and Shakuntala have suddenly become the poster women of political parties. And the run up to the elections will see stories of many more women like them, as candidates highlight their development needs.
They represent the aam aurat (the common woman), a substantial chunk of active voters. Though the participation of women is less than men's in the elections, the gap is narrowing. In the last Lok Sabha elections, more than 300 million women exercised their franchise. This has prompted political parties to include the aam aurat in their election manifestos. But feminists doubt whether anything will come of it.
"It is all a dikhawa (show), it is a betra-yal. What they are trying to do is exploit the women and steal their votes. Unfortunately, women are falling in their trap," says septuagenarian Suman Krishan Kant, national president of the United Women's Front. Her father-in-law, Lala Achint Ram, was member of the Constituent Assembly and the first Lok Sabha.
The pressure of the women's movement and the fact that they are a huge constituency ensure that no party can afford to ignore women or openly make sexist statements, says Dr Indu Agnihotri of the Centre for Women Development Studies, Delhi. But she sees most of the "women's issues" in political manifestos as an "attempt to hijack the women's movement through symbolic gestures."
According to Dr Ranjana Kumari, director of the Delhi-based Centre for Social Research, "Rahul Gandhi may really be considerate towards women, or he is simply smart to have spoken of Kalawati. But at the end of the day, all major political parties have been promising women more or less the same things. But nothing has happened."
Veteran politician Najma Heptullah is "angry with those who could do a lot for women, but did not". In the list of unfulfilled promises compiled by women's activists, the Women's Reservation Bill has top priority. Says senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj: "Last year, when we had a rally for the Women's Reservation Bill, there were over one lakh women participants. We have fully supported the bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha twice when Atalji was Prime Minister. But some parties, particularly the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, were hell-bent on thwarting it. They tore it up, and we could not get the bill passed." She says that the BJP is committed to the bill and would support the UPA if it introduces it. "For the first four years of this Lok Sabha, they did nothing about it. And at the end of the fourth year, they introduced the draft bill. But nothing happened thereafter. That was the first betrayal of women by the UPA government."
CPI(M) leader Hannan Moullah, MP, says women should not vote for a party that cannot give a written commitment in favour of the Women's Reservation Bill. Heptullah feels that since the BJP, the Congress and the Left are ready to see the bill through, it should be put to vote so that the opponents can be unmasked. She regrets that when India got its first woman President, there was no mention of women in her maiden speech.
Pointing at the growing intolerance towards women in society, Agnihotri says it is high time Parlia-ment was packed with women. "The growing intolerance affects women most. That's how incidents in Bangalore and Mangalore happened."
But the million-dollar question is whether a greater presence of women in Parliament can redress the woes of the fair sex. Perhaps not, but things will improve substantially for them. Swaraj recalls how she was invited to the wedding of a party worker's daughter. "She asked me to come, saying the bridegroom's people would realise that her daughter has the support of a political leader. She introduced me to all of them, and was confident that her daughter's in-laws wouldn't dare ill-treat her," she says.
According to Swaraj, reservation for women in the BJP has had a tremendous impact. "There are 27 women in the national executive of the BJP, and nine are central office bearers in the party. Such a huge presence of women is not there in any other political party. Every empowered woman has hundreds of followers, their authority empowers the followers as well." While the BJP plans to include a full chapter on women in its manifesto, Swaraj admits the status of women is pathetic. She is concerned about the growing number of atrocities against women. "Even in the national capital, two or three cases of molestation and rape are reported daily. In the Soumya Viswanathan murder case, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit had suggested that women should stay indoors to be safe and secure," she says.
According to Agnihotri, economic hardships have not been addressed by the political parties, and women have gone to the extreme by becoming surrogate mothers. The UPA's claim that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act has empowered many women has come in for flak. The reality is different, says Bidyut Mohanty of the Delhi-based Institute of Social Sciences. "The implementation of the act suffers from various shortcomings. Women of Madhya Pradesh, for example, complained that there were no crèche facilities and children were either left with family members or were brought to the work site, where they remained unattended," he says.
The ISS found that in Orissa, the work was too arduous for women because of which they could not get minimum wages. In some places, women did not get employment because of gender discrimination. Despite the presence of a woman in Rashtrapati Bhavan, and women heading major political parties like the Congress, the BSP, the AIADMK and the Trinamool Congress, women are largely invisible in the political arena. "How many parties have involved women in leadership? Even parties led by women have done nothing. Do Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalithaa, Mayawati and Mamata Bannerjee have a woman as second in command? They have simply played by the rules to keep themselves going. All the prominent parties led by women have sidelined prominent women leaders. So the aam aurat is only a political need," explains Ranjana.
Apart from women activists, NGOs working for women's empowerment say that women's issues are largely seen only in manifestos. Summing up the general feeling, Arpita Das, programme associate of Delhi-based NGO Tarshi, has lots of questions to ask politicians who seek women's votes. Says Das: "Although there are laws to curb violence against women, how far are they implemented? Why do most police officers treat domestic violence as a personal issue? Does the aam aurat have the legal knowhow to lodge a case against the perpetrators of violence? I don't think so. On the other hand, we have politicians such as Muthalik, who have their own narrow-minded notions of how a woman should behave."
Das says many women become sex workers for lack of employment opportunities. According to her, "Politicians feel the best way to cater to these women is by eliminating sex work altogether. And for this there is a push to get the Immoral Traffic Prevention Act amendment passed so that the client, too, is convicted. It also doesn't allow a sex worker's 18-year-old child to live off her earnings. Politicians should spend more time understanding the nuances of sex workers' lives to make laws for their benefit. Sex workers do not want the ITPA amendments!"
Dr George Mathew, director of the ISS, says women have become a big political force, which a political party can ignore only at its own peril. "So they do make programmes targeted at women, and also try to implement them. But they fail to do it in more than a symbolic manner, by touching the periphery," says the social scientist.
Mathew says it is the combination of their issues, along with the fact that they are increasingly taking their own decision on whom or which party to vote for, that makes them a potent force as an electorate. "The women of India want a commitment from political parties to play a proactive role in giving the highest priority to their safety, health, nutrition, work, education and equal participation in every sphere. Recognising the cultural constraints and inequities among women in India, special attention and provisions need to be made for the marginalised and vulnerable women," says Women Power Connect, an umbrella organisation of a number of NGOs and activists.
They have drafted a 13-point agenda of women's concerns, and have recommended it for inclusion in the Congress manifesto. Kant is trying to field as many women as possible to contest the Lok Sabha elections. "The solution lies in all educated women getting into politics. Unfortunately, that is not happening," she says.
While all this is true, the aam aurat can no longer be taken for granted. "The Panchayati Raj Act has raised their political aspirations, and also has been driving home the point that their issues have to be addressed by the government," says Kumari. "Political parties must not take women's votes for granted."
Also Read:
The Cultural Designation of Feminism
Being a Woman
A New Indian Woman?
Wailing Womb, Weeping Heart
The Fallen Womb
Feminism as a Global Epidemic
In Defense of Dupatta
Women in Metro India
Women in Politics
Women Psyche
From Kalawati to Shakuntala, politicians are wooing the aam aurat, but activists say that much needs to be done for women's emancipation
Kalawati, a hapless housewife in a remote village of Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, became a household name when the Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi used her story to make a passionate plea for the Indo-American nuclear deal in Parliament last year. For Kalawati and millions like her, nuclear energy will revolutionise life, he said. More recently, Omprakash Baburao Kadu, an independent legislator from Achalpur, chose a woman named Shakuntala of Rai Ka Purva village in Amethi as his mascot to take on the Gandhi scion.
Almost confined to their kitchens till now, Kalawati and Shakuntala have suddenly become the poster women of political parties. And the run up to the elections will see stories of many more women like them, as candidates highlight their development needs.
They represent the aam aurat (the common woman), a substantial chunk of active voters. Though the participation of women is less than men's in the elections, the gap is narrowing. In the last Lok Sabha elections, more than 300 million women exercised their franchise. This has prompted political parties to include the aam aurat in their election manifestos. But feminists doubt whether anything will come of it.
"It is all a dikhawa (show), it is a betra-yal. What they are trying to do is exploit the women and steal their votes. Unfortunately, women are falling in their trap," says septuagenarian Suman Krishan Kant, national president of the United Women's Front. Her father-in-law, Lala Achint Ram, was member of the Constituent Assembly and the first Lok Sabha.
The pressure of the women's movement and the fact that they are a huge constituency ensure that no party can afford to ignore women or openly make sexist statements, says Dr Indu Agnihotri of the Centre for Women Development Studies, Delhi. But she sees most of the "women's issues" in political manifestos as an "attempt to hijack the women's movement through symbolic gestures."
According to Dr Ranjana Kumari, director of the Delhi-based Centre for Social Research, "Rahul Gandhi may really be considerate towards women, or he is simply smart to have spoken of Kalawati. But at the end of the day, all major political parties have been promising women more or less the same things. But nothing has happened."
Veteran politician Najma Heptullah is "angry with those who could do a lot for women, but did not". In the list of unfulfilled promises compiled by women's activists, the Women's Reservation Bill has top priority. Says senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj: "Last year, when we had a rally for the Women's Reservation Bill, there were over one lakh women participants. We have fully supported the bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha twice when Atalji was Prime Minister. But some parties, particularly the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, were hell-bent on thwarting it. They tore it up, and we could not get the bill passed." She says that the BJP is committed to the bill and would support the UPA if it introduces it. "For the first four years of this Lok Sabha, they did nothing about it. And at the end of the fourth year, they introduced the draft bill. But nothing happened thereafter. That was the first betrayal of women by the UPA government."
CPI(M) leader Hannan Moullah, MP, says women should not vote for a party that cannot give a written commitment in favour of the Women's Reservation Bill. Heptullah feels that since the BJP, the Congress and the Left are ready to see the bill through, it should be put to vote so that the opponents can be unmasked. She regrets that when India got its first woman President, there was no mention of women in her maiden speech.
Pointing at the growing intolerance towards women in society, Agnihotri says it is high time Parlia-ment was packed with women. "The growing intolerance affects women most. That's how incidents in Bangalore and Mangalore happened."
But the million-dollar question is whether a greater presence of women in Parliament can redress the woes of the fair sex. Perhaps not, but things will improve substantially for them. Swaraj recalls how she was invited to the wedding of a party worker's daughter. "She asked me to come, saying the bridegroom's people would realise that her daughter has the support of a political leader. She introduced me to all of them, and was confident that her daughter's in-laws wouldn't dare ill-treat her," she says.
According to Swaraj, reservation for women in the BJP has had a tremendous impact. "There are 27 women in the national executive of the BJP, and nine are central office bearers in the party. Such a huge presence of women is not there in any other political party. Every empowered woman has hundreds of followers, their authority empowers the followers as well." While the BJP plans to include a full chapter on women in its manifesto, Swaraj admits the status of women is pathetic. She is concerned about the growing number of atrocities against women. "Even in the national capital, two or three cases of molestation and rape are reported daily. In the Soumya Viswanathan murder case, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit had suggested that women should stay indoors to be safe and secure," she says.
According to Agnihotri, economic hardships have not been addressed by the political parties, and women have gone to the extreme by becoming surrogate mothers. The UPA's claim that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act has empowered many women has come in for flak. The reality is different, says Bidyut Mohanty of the Delhi-based Institute of Social Sciences. "The implementation of the act suffers from various shortcomings. Women of Madhya Pradesh, for example, complained that there were no crèche facilities and children were either left with family members or were brought to the work site, where they remained unattended," he says.
The ISS found that in Orissa, the work was too arduous for women because of which they could not get minimum wages. In some places, women did not get employment because of gender discrimination. Despite the presence of a woman in Rashtrapati Bhavan, and women heading major political parties like the Congress, the BSP, the AIADMK and the Trinamool Congress, women are largely invisible in the political arena. "How many parties have involved women in leadership? Even parties led by women have done nothing. Do Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalithaa, Mayawati and Mamata Bannerjee have a woman as second in command? They have simply played by the rules to keep themselves going. All the prominent parties led by women have sidelined prominent women leaders. So the aam aurat is only a political need," explains Ranjana.
Apart from women activists, NGOs working for women's empowerment say that women's issues are largely seen only in manifestos. Summing up the general feeling, Arpita Das, programme associate of Delhi-based NGO Tarshi, has lots of questions to ask politicians who seek women's votes. Says Das: "Although there are laws to curb violence against women, how far are they implemented? Why do most police officers treat domestic violence as a personal issue? Does the aam aurat have the legal knowhow to lodge a case against the perpetrators of violence? I don't think so. On the other hand, we have politicians such as Muthalik, who have their own narrow-minded notions of how a woman should behave."
Das says many women become sex workers for lack of employment opportunities. According to her, "Politicians feel the best way to cater to these women is by eliminating sex work altogether. And for this there is a push to get the Immoral Traffic Prevention Act amendment passed so that the client, too, is convicted. It also doesn't allow a sex worker's 18-year-old child to live off her earnings. Politicians should spend more time understanding the nuances of sex workers' lives to make laws for their benefit. Sex workers do not want the ITPA amendments!"
Dr George Mathew, director of the ISS, says women have become a big political force, which a political party can ignore only at its own peril. "So they do make programmes targeted at women, and also try to implement them. But they fail to do it in more than a symbolic manner, by touching the periphery," says the social scientist.
Mathew says it is the combination of their issues, along with the fact that they are increasingly taking their own decision on whom or which party to vote for, that makes them a potent force as an electorate. "The women of India want a commitment from political parties to play a proactive role in giving the highest priority to their safety, health, nutrition, work, education and equal participation in every sphere. Recognising the cultural constraints and inequities among women in India, special attention and provisions need to be made for the marginalised and vulnerable women," says Women Power Connect, an umbrella organisation of a number of NGOs and activists.
They have drafted a 13-point agenda of women's concerns, and have recommended it for inclusion in the Congress manifesto. Kant is trying to field as many women as possible to contest the Lok Sabha elections. "The solution lies in all educated women getting into politics. Unfortunately, that is not happening," she says.
While all this is true, the aam aurat can no longer be taken for granted. "The Panchayati Raj Act has raised their political aspirations, and also has been driving home the point that their issues have to be addressed by the government," says Kumari. "Political parties must not take women's votes for granted."
Also Read:
Tiger census: four healthy landscapes possible
By Malini Shanker
The Wildlife Institute of India's census report estimated 1,411 tigers in India’s Protected Areas. The report is significant for thorough and precise documentation of habitat loss for the tiger.
The wildlife census report “Status of Tigers, Co-predators, and Prey in India 2008” submitted by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) estimated 1,411 tigers in India’s Protected Areas (PAs), with a maximum 1,657 or a minimum of 1,165 tigers. The report is a scientific estimate of tigers, their prey base and habitat.
WII was commissioned by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) and the Government of India to estimate tiger numbers after the debate surrounding the total number of tigers killed in Sariska Tiger Reserve. "The exaggeration of tiger numbers over the years - the fudging of figures - has meant that the government has been able to avoid reacting to all the other warnings - such as organised wildlife crime and the poaching threat, the loss of all the tigers in Sariska and the Tibet expose," says Belinda Wright of the Wildlife Protection Society of India.
While the report has been critically acclaimed, it is significant more for its thorough and precise documentation of habitat loss for the tiger, than in the enumeration of tigers itself. Equally critically, the report finally buries the older pugmark method of census, which was an alibi for foresters to inflate tiger numbers, given the challenge of prosecuting poachers. “The pugmark method suffers from reliance on experts to identify individual tigers from the characteristics of the pugmarks,” says Dr Y V Jhala, senior faculty and Carnivore Biologist of the Wildlife Institute of India. “The plaster casts of the right rear foot look different on sandy loamy soil like on river beds, from that cast on clayey soil in other landscapes… that is the dilemma of park managers” says Dr Rajesh Gopal, Member Secretary of the National Tiger Conservation Authority. (NTCA)
Jhala led the team of 50 field biologists for the conduct of the largest wildlife census ever undertaken. 88,000 forest staff assisted, according to Jhala. Two levels of data – one at the ground level in tiger beats and other through remote sensing – were combined. The analysis showed that tigers occupy areas where human impacts are minimum; also high tiger densities are achieved only in areas with low human disturbances. “When there is good food there is a higher population of tigers. Night lights signify places that have electricity - centres of urbanisation - it is a very reliable index of the ‘human footprint’ on the planet… Where humans are plentiful wildlife does not survive!” says Jhala.
Substantiating the claim that the tiger is at the head of the faunal spectrum, the report counts atleast 57,419 leopards, 1,34,833 wild dogs, 49,090 Sloth Bears, among carnivores and 69,026 Spotted Deer/Chital 78,861 Sambar (stags/Indian antelopes) and 25,808 Nilgais or (Blue Bulls) among herbivores. These numbers appear to be in line with the prey base theory propounded by renowned wildlife biologist Bangalore-based Ullas Karanth, who is affiliated to the Wildlife Conservation Society of New York.
But Karanth, who had for long criticised the hitherto official pugmark census, remains skeptical. "WII scientists have not produced any scientific publication in which their method is fully described. Only some glossy reports are available at this stage. So at this point I cannot comment further," he says.
In another peer review, Dr John Seidensticker, Conservation Biologist of the Smithsonian National Zoological Park and Dr Ramona Maraj, Conservation Biologist Canadian Department of Environment, Yukon, have criticised the report. “A substantive deficiency we noted in the Framework for Monitoring Tiger Population trends in India is the absence of tiger mortality monitoring,” they say. High feline mortality especially of cubs has been discounted and not computed in this census.
4 healthy tiger landscapes in India
The WII report says that there are only 4 healthy tiger landscapes in India, which, with ‘inter connectivity and inviolate’ corridors’ can offer long term sustenance of the tiger”. These are:
NE Hills: “The landscapes in the NE Hills and the Brahmaputra plains currently report tiger occupancy in 4230 km2 of forests, supporting 200 tigers; forests though fragmented, are connected through the forests of Bhutan. Gopal says “20 - 25 corridor linkages for the 4 identified tiger landscapes have been drawn up based on the conservation recommendations.”
However, this leaves atleast one NGO in Assam a bit skeptical: “Nothing on the ground has happened. It could be just another report for the state government,” says a bit disappointed Dr Bibhab Thalukdar, the Secretary General of Aranyak, wildlife NGO in Kaziranga Tiger Reserve. Most wildlife activists’ refrain is that camera traps were laid only in places where tiger presence was a certainty. Hence it is not entirely accurate they aver.
Nagarhole-Madumalai-Bandipur-Waynad corridor : This is the region that boasts of the best tiger landscape for long term conservation of the tiger gene pool. “The single largest population of tigers in India is within this landscape comprising the landscape of Nagarhole-Madumalai-Bandipur-Waynad” says the census report, thus consolidation of habitat in this corridor is absolutely critical. It hosts 280 tigers across 10,800 square kms.
It serves as a fine example of managing inter-state tiger reserves for establishing populations that have a good chance of long term persistence and provides a source to repopulate neighbouring forests,” says the report. “The voluntary resettlement of people from Nagarhole with positive collaboration between government and non government agencies in the Nagarhole Tiger Reserve must continue to permanently resolve the human wildlife conflict through a win-win solution” says Praveen Bharghav of Wildlife First in Nagarhole.
“We are now focusing attention about where to deploy the Tiger Protection Force, and we have identified the vulnerable source populations of tigers, after the tiger census report,” says Gopal.
The relocation of tribals from the Mudumulai Tiger Reserve commenced a few months ago, amidst noisy protests. The forest department has the responsibility to facilitate resettlement; with the new tiger conservation guidelines being issued, each adult is entitled to a package Rs.10,00,000 or material resources worth the same amount - including land for relocation and title deeds for housing outside the tiger reserves. Whether all these provisions have been made was the focus of the protests against relocation here.
The Central Indian landscape : The Central Indian landscape has vast stretches of tiger habitat and if connected with the Eastern Ghat landscape it will sustain the tiger gene pool remarkably, rendering wildlife management in the hands of mother nature itself. There is the prospect of seamless contiguity of habitat in: Kanha, Bandhavgarh Pench (47 tigers) and Panna (24 tigers) in Madhya Pradesh, Ranthambore Kuno Palpur on the Rajasthan-MP border (24 tigers), Sariska Tiger Reserve, Palamau Tiger Reserve (contiguous from Bandhavgarh in NE MP to Palamau in Jharkhand), Indravati Tiger Reserve in Chattisgarh (contiguous to Kanha in the NW in MP) to Simlipal in Orissa (20 tigers).
By connecting large PAs in Eastern Ghats with the Central Indian PAs, a very big tiger landscape could emerge; the WII report has overlooked habitat connectivity in the Eastern Ghats landscape," says Asif Siddique of Hyticos, wildlife NGO in Srisailam.
Northern Andhra Pradesh has some very thick forests which could possibly be notified as linkages (or corridors) for the Srisailam Nagarjunsagar Tiger Reserve in AP with the Tadoba Andheri Tiger Reserve in Maharastra, which in turn can be connected through corridor notification to Pench Indravati and Simlipal Tiger Reserves.
But Maoist insurgency in most parts of the Central Indian landscape plagues conservation … impeding completion of the census in the Indravati Tiger Reserve. "Advisories have been issued by the NTCA to the state forest departments to link up corridors and a roadmap has emerged; and a time-line has been issued by the NTCA to the state forest departments to deliver the tiger conservation plan," says Gopal.
The Eastern Ghat landscape: The report says that the Eastern Ghat complex is constituted by the Srisailam-Nagarjunsagar Tiger Reserve Andhra Pradesh and supports an estimated population size of 53 in a single contiguous forest block that spread across 15,000 square kms. "Insurgency, biotic pressures, and subsistence level poaching of tiger prey," plague conservation, it points out. The dense forests of this tiger reserve on the Eastern Ghats offers pristine habitat for the entire faunal spectrum of the Royal Bengal tiger. In addition, the tiger in effect protects the unquantified resources hidden in the treasure trove of the biodiversity reserves.
Despite very, very thick forests including crocodile sanctuary, mangrove ecosystems, 4 tiger reserves and impenetrable moist deciduous forests, lack of interconnectivity plagues sustenance of genetic diversity of tigers. The bamboo lobby here is all too powerful defying declaration of reserved forests as buffer zones for the tiger reserves. Inter connectivity offers vast undisturbed habitat. Political will for conservation offers the only hope for the harried Royal Bengal Tiger in its last refuge in India.
An opportunity for redemption, since the Sariska debacle : Since submission of the census report to the Government of India, all tiger reserves have been declared in the financial year 2008-09 as critical tiger habitat, to facilitate speedy relocation of people. 8 new tiger reserves are being notified. In some cases notification have been issued, in some others, demarcation is going on, in some, field directors are yet to be appointed, in some the funding has just been granted -- the new reserves are in various stages of birth pangs. Biodiversity committees have been entrusted with identifying flora and fauna to document peoples' interdependence on forest ecosystems in conformance to the Forest Rights Act.
For the four landscapes mentioned above, “It is upto the state governments now to draw action plans based on the conservation recommendations” says P R Sinha, the director of the Wildlife Institute of India. Consolidation of these 4 landscapes can offer genetic diversity for the highly endangered tiger as it protects tigers and faunal spectrum in inviolate corridors. The tiger and its faunal spectrum need political will in the states, urgently. “We have for the first time a high resolution spatial data set on where India’s tigers are, individual populations, tiger numbers and connectivity with other populations,” says Jhala.
The Wildlife Institute of India's census report estimated 1,411 tigers in India’s Protected Areas. The report is significant for thorough and precise documentation of habitat loss for the tiger.
The wildlife census report “Status of Tigers, Co-predators, and Prey in India 2008” submitted by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) estimated 1,411 tigers in India’s Protected Areas (PAs), with a maximum 1,657 or a minimum of 1,165 tigers. The report is a scientific estimate of tigers, their prey base and habitat.
WII was commissioned by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) and the Government of India to estimate tiger numbers after the debate surrounding the total number of tigers killed in Sariska Tiger Reserve. "The exaggeration of tiger numbers over the years - the fudging of figures - has meant that the government has been able to avoid reacting to all the other warnings - such as organised wildlife crime and the poaching threat, the loss of all the tigers in Sariska and the Tibet expose," says Belinda Wright of the Wildlife Protection Society of India.
While the report has been critically acclaimed, it is significant more for its thorough and precise documentation of habitat loss for the tiger, than in the enumeration of tigers itself. Equally critically, the report finally buries the older pugmark method of census, which was an alibi for foresters to inflate tiger numbers, given the challenge of prosecuting poachers. “The pugmark method suffers from reliance on experts to identify individual tigers from the characteristics of the pugmarks,” says Dr Y V Jhala, senior faculty and Carnivore Biologist of the Wildlife Institute of India. “The plaster casts of the right rear foot look different on sandy loamy soil like on river beds, from that cast on clayey soil in other landscapes… that is the dilemma of park managers” says Dr Rajesh Gopal, Member Secretary of the National Tiger Conservation Authority. (NTCA)
Jhala led the team of 50 field biologists for the conduct of the largest wildlife census ever undertaken. 88,000 forest staff assisted, according to Jhala. Two levels of data – one at the ground level in tiger beats and other through remote sensing – were combined. The analysis showed that tigers occupy areas where human impacts are minimum; also high tiger densities are achieved only in areas with low human disturbances. “When there is good food there is a higher population of tigers. Night lights signify places that have electricity - centres of urbanisation - it is a very reliable index of the ‘human footprint’ on the planet… Where humans are plentiful wildlife does not survive!” says Jhala.
Substantiating the claim that the tiger is at the head of the faunal spectrum, the report counts atleast 57,419 leopards, 1,34,833 wild dogs, 49,090 Sloth Bears, among carnivores and 69,026 Spotted Deer/Chital 78,861 Sambar (stags/Indian antelopes) and 25,808 Nilgais or (Blue Bulls) among herbivores. These numbers appear to be in line with the prey base theory propounded by renowned wildlife biologist Bangalore-based Ullas Karanth, who is affiliated to the Wildlife Conservation Society of New York.
But Karanth, who had for long criticised the hitherto official pugmark census, remains skeptical. "WII scientists have not produced any scientific publication in which their method is fully described. Only some glossy reports are available at this stage. So at this point I cannot comment further," he says.
In another peer review, Dr John Seidensticker, Conservation Biologist of the Smithsonian National Zoological Park and Dr Ramona Maraj, Conservation Biologist Canadian Department of Environment, Yukon, have criticised the report. “A substantive deficiency we noted in the Framework for Monitoring Tiger Population trends in India is the absence of tiger mortality monitoring,” they say. High feline mortality especially of cubs has been discounted and not computed in this census.
4 healthy tiger landscapes in India
The WII report says that there are only 4 healthy tiger landscapes in India, which, with ‘inter connectivity and inviolate’ corridors’ can offer long term sustenance of the tiger”. These are:
NE Hills: “The landscapes in the NE Hills and the Brahmaputra plains currently report tiger occupancy in 4230 km2 of forests, supporting 200 tigers; forests though fragmented, are connected through the forests of Bhutan. Gopal says “20 - 25 corridor linkages for the 4 identified tiger landscapes have been drawn up based on the conservation recommendations.”
However, this leaves atleast one NGO in Assam a bit skeptical: “Nothing on the ground has happened. It could be just another report for the state government,” says a bit disappointed Dr Bibhab Thalukdar, the Secretary General of Aranyak, wildlife NGO in Kaziranga Tiger Reserve. Most wildlife activists’ refrain is that camera traps were laid only in places where tiger presence was a certainty. Hence it is not entirely accurate they aver.
Nagarhole-Madumalai-Bandipur-Waynad corridor : This is the region that boasts of the best tiger landscape for long term conservation of the tiger gene pool. “The single largest population of tigers in India is within this landscape comprising the landscape of Nagarhole-Madumalai-Bandipur-Waynad” says the census report, thus consolidation of habitat in this corridor is absolutely critical. It hosts 280 tigers across 10,800 square kms.
It serves as a fine example of managing inter-state tiger reserves for establishing populations that have a good chance of long term persistence and provides a source to repopulate neighbouring forests,” says the report. “The voluntary resettlement of people from Nagarhole with positive collaboration between government and non government agencies in the Nagarhole Tiger Reserve must continue to permanently resolve the human wildlife conflict through a win-win solution” says Praveen Bharghav of Wildlife First in Nagarhole.
“We are now focusing attention about where to deploy the Tiger Protection Force, and we have identified the vulnerable source populations of tigers, after the tiger census report,” says Gopal.
The relocation of tribals from the Mudumulai Tiger Reserve commenced a few months ago, amidst noisy protests. The forest department has the responsibility to facilitate resettlement; with the new tiger conservation guidelines being issued, each adult is entitled to a package Rs.10,00,000 or material resources worth the same amount - including land for relocation and title deeds for housing outside the tiger reserves. Whether all these provisions have been made was the focus of the protests against relocation here.
The Central Indian landscape : The Central Indian landscape has vast stretches of tiger habitat and if connected with the Eastern Ghat landscape it will sustain the tiger gene pool remarkably, rendering wildlife management in the hands of mother nature itself. There is the prospect of seamless contiguity of habitat in: Kanha, Bandhavgarh Pench (47 tigers) and Panna (24 tigers) in Madhya Pradesh, Ranthambore Kuno Palpur on the Rajasthan-MP border (24 tigers), Sariska Tiger Reserve, Palamau Tiger Reserve (contiguous from Bandhavgarh in NE MP to Palamau in Jharkhand), Indravati Tiger Reserve in Chattisgarh (contiguous to Kanha in the NW in MP) to Simlipal in Orissa (20 tigers).
By connecting large PAs in Eastern Ghats with the Central Indian PAs, a very big tiger landscape could emerge; the WII report has overlooked habitat connectivity in the Eastern Ghats landscape," says Asif Siddique of Hyticos, wildlife NGO in Srisailam.
Northern Andhra Pradesh has some very thick forests which could possibly be notified as linkages (or corridors) for the Srisailam Nagarjunsagar Tiger Reserve in AP with the Tadoba Andheri Tiger Reserve in Maharastra, which in turn can be connected through corridor notification to Pench Indravati and Simlipal Tiger Reserves.
But Maoist insurgency in most parts of the Central Indian landscape plagues conservation … impeding completion of the census in the Indravati Tiger Reserve. "Advisories have been issued by the NTCA to the state forest departments to link up corridors and a roadmap has emerged; and a time-line has been issued by the NTCA to the state forest departments to deliver the tiger conservation plan," says Gopal.
The Eastern Ghat landscape: The report says that the Eastern Ghat complex is constituted by the Srisailam-Nagarjunsagar Tiger Reserve Andhra Pradesh and supports an estimated population size of 53 in a single contiguous forest block that spread across 15,000 square kms. "Insurgency, biotic pressures, and subsistence level poaching of tiger prey," plague conservation, it points out. The dense forests of this tiger reserve on the Eastern Ghats offers pristine habitat for the entire faunal spectrum of the Royal Bengal tiger. In addition, the tiger in effect protects the unquantified resources hidden in the treasure trove of the biodiversity reserves.
Despite very, very thick forests including crocodile sanctuary, mangrove ecosystems, 4 tiger reserves and impenetrable moist deciduous forests, lack of interconnectivity plagues sustenance of genetic diversity of tigers. The bamboo lobby here is all too powerful defying declaration of reserved forests as buffer zones for the tiger reserves. Inter connectivity offers vast undisturbed habitat. Political will for conservation offers the only hope for the harried Royal Bengal Tiger in its last refuge in India.
An opportunity for redemption, since the Sariska debacle : Since submission of the census report to the Government of India, all tiger reserves have been declared in the financial year 2008-09 as critical tiger habitat, to facilitate speedy relocation of people. 8 new tiger reserves are being notified. In some cases notification have been issued, in some others, demarcation is going on, in some, field directors are yet to be appointed, in some the funding has just been granted -- the new reserves are in various stages of birth pangs. Biodiversity committees have been entrusted with identifying flora and fauna to document peoples' interdependence on forest ecosystems in conformance to the Forest Rights Act.
For the four landscapes mentioned above, “It is upto the state governments now to draw action plans based on the conservation recommendations” says P R Sinha, the director of the Wildlife Institute of India. Consolidation of these 4 landscapes can offer genetic diversity for the highly endangered tiger as it protects tigers and faunal spectrum in inviolate corridors. The tiger and its faunal spectrum need political will in the states, urgently. “We have for the first time a high resolution spatial data set on where India’s tigers are, individual populations, tiger numbers and connectivity with other populations,” says Jhala.
Shaky coalitions make good economics
By M H Ahssan
Another high-decibel election season is upon us, and going by the first samplings of hate speeches by upstart politicians, it promises to be as rambunctious a campaign as any that we've seen over the years.
Early opinion polls point to the likelihood that another ragtag coalition of parties will take office and muddle their way through for a full term or for a few years until a bruised political ego or a momentary surge of opportunism causes the arrangement to collapse, warranting yet another high-decibel election season.
There's been much agonising over such unstable and opportunistic political arrangements, which have sort of become par for the Indian electoral course for two decades now. Conventional wisdom has it that weak coalitions at the Centre are bad for the economy because an excessive preoccupation with political survival and with keeping coalition partners in good humour impedes any attempt at initiating bold economic reforms or offering good governance. That's just an extension of the argument that "good" politics makes bad economics and that liberal democracies cannot promote economic growth as fast as authoritarian regimes can.
But, in fact, India's experience of coalition governments at the Centre and with economic growth demolishes that argument -- or, at the very least, underscores an important exception to that rule. For starters, it's no coincidence that the time-cycle of India's move into a higher orbit of economic growth matches pretty closely the period when coalition arrangements have come to occupy centre-stage at the Central level.
Virtually all the economic opening up and reform programs that enabled this speedier growth were carried out when motley, multi-party coalitions were in power: this is just as true of Congress-led arrangements as of those led by the BJP or the extremely nebulous and politically malleable "United Front".
In contrast, the years when one party dominated power politics at the Centre were characterised by the "Hindu rate of economic growth" and a system of political patronage. In particular, the 14 years that Indira Gandhi served as prime minister (over different tenures) -- during which she invoked Article 356 to dismiss elected state governments no less than 39 times -- were politically and economically ruinous.
Even if one concedes that she had to deal with separatist movements in Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East and occasionally irresponsible state governments, her excessive predilection to dismiss elected governments on partisan considerations undermined the federal spirit and impeded state governments from realising their full potential as local-level economic change agents.
In the era of coalition governments, however, the space for such reckless dismissal of state governments has been limited by the realpolitik considerations of managing political arrangements in which typically a constituent at a Central-level coalition may be in power in a state. And although there have been occasional errors of omission -- when there was a fair case for invoking Article 356 but it wasn't (as in Gujarat in 2002) -- coalition politics have generally strengthened the federal structure and the process of decentralisation of power and encouraged state governments to look beyond political survival to advancing economic reforms.
Sure, there have been populist excesses, at the Central and state levels, as coalition partners binge on public money. And, of course, you don't often see shining examples of good governance. But there's nothing to indicate that the record of single-party governments was any better on those counts.
The option, then, is between single-party misrule based on patronage, which delivered low economic growth, and coalition arrangements that, with all their faults, occasionally demonstrated that political liberalism makes good economics. I know which one gets my vote.
Another high-decibel election season is upon us, and going by the first samplings of hate speeches by upstart politicians, it promises to be as rambunctious a campaign as any that we've seen over the years.
Early opinion polls point to the likelihood that another ragtag coalition of parties will take office and muddle their way through for a full term or for a few years until a bruised political ego or a momentary surge of opportunism causes the arrangement to collapse, warranting yet another high-decibel election season.
There's been much agonising over such unstable and opportunistic political arrangements, which have sort of become par for the Indian electoral course for two decades now. Conventional wisdom has it that weak coalitions at the Centre are bad for the economy because an excessive preoccupation with political survival and with keeping coalition partners in good humour impedes any attempt at initiating bold economic reforms or offering good governance. That's just an extension of the argument that "good" politics makes bad economics and that liberal democracies cannot promote economic growth as fast as authoritarian regimes can.
But, in fact, India's experience of coalition governments at the Centre and with economic growth demolishes that argument -- or, at the very least, underscores an important exception to that rule. For starters, it's no coincidence that the time-cycle of India's move into a higher orbit of economic growth matches pretty closely the period when coalition arrangements have come to occupy centre-stage at the Central level.
Virtually all the economic opening up and reform programs that enabled this speedier growth were carried out when motley, multi-party coalitions were in power: this is just as true of Congress-led arrangements as of those led by the BJP or the extremely nebulous and politically malleable "United Front".
In contrast, the years when one party dominated power politics at the Centre were characterised by the "Hindu rate of economic growth" and a system of political patronage. In particular, the 14 years that Indira Gandhi served as prime minister (over different tenures) -- during which she invoked Article 356 to dismiss elected state governments no less than 39 times -- were politically and economically ruinous.
Even if one concedes that she had to deal with separatist movements in Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East and occasionally irresponsible state governments, her excessive predilection to dismiss elected governments on partisan considerations undermined the federal spirit and impeded state governments from realising their full potential as local-level economic change agents.
In the era of coalition governments, however, the space for such reckless dismissal of state governments has been limited by the realpolitik considerations of managing political arrangements in which typically a constituent at a Central-level coalition may be in power in a state. And although there have been occasional errors of omission -- when there was a fair case for invoking Article 356 but it wasn't (as in Gujarat in 2002) -- coalition politics have generally strengthened the federal structure and the process of decentralisation of power and encouraged state governments to look beyond political survival to advancing economic reforms.
Sure, there have been populist excesses, at the Central and state levels, as coalition partners binge on public money. And, of course, you don't often see shining examples of good governance. But there's nothing to indicate that the record of single-party governments was any better on those counts.
The option, then, is between single-party misrule based on patronage, which delivered low economic growth, and coalition arrangements that, with all their faults, occasionally demonstrated that political liberalism makes good economics. I know which one gets my vote.
Editor's Byte - India Elections 2009
By M H Ahssan
When in doubt trust the bookies. While pundits and psephologists are groping in the dark, the bookies (I don't know why most of them are based in Gujarat) have a clear favourite...
When in doubt trust the bookies. While pundits and psephologists are groping in the dark, the bookies (I don’t know why most of them are based in Gujarat) have a clear favourite in Election 2009. According to them, the Congress has its nose just in front and could touch the 140 mark. Congressmen and Congresswomen, in moments of candour, admit that the last two weeks have been terrible. Their erstwhile allies are hitting back with vengeance. Where will it stop?
Lalu has fantasies about the top job in Delhi, so does Sharad Pawar. If the Congress returns as the single largest party, how are Messrs Lalu and Pawar going to achieve their ambitions? Conventional wisdom holds that any party with around 30 seats can blackmail the Congress, not just about support but about the PM’s chair. Is that possible?
The BJP seems to be recovering its poise after the Varun Gandhi nonsense. This is such a calculated, brazen and cynical ploy by the mother and son duo for the latter to emerge as the "real" Hindutva icon, that I am surprised the lad’s antics are being taken so seriously.
Mr Advani has carefully and diligently plotted the BJP’s new governance profile. I hope Varun does not hijack Advani’s sensible agenda.
Is television responsible for creating Varun Gandhi as the BJP’s latest poster boy? I don’t think so. The reporting and the endless debates may have added marginally to his charisma, but he is his own creation. A senior BJP leader confessed to me that the party was taken completely by surprise by Varun’s dangerous gambit.
Tailpiece: A reporter once asked the late British prime minister, Harold Macmillan what he feared most in politics. "Events dear boy, events," replied the crafty old statesman. The Varun event is testimony to that insight.
When in doubt trust the bookies. While pundits and psephologists are groping in the dark, the bookies (I don't know why most of them are based in Gujarat) have a clear favourite... When in doubt trust the bookies. While pundits and psephologists are groping in the dark, the bookies (I don’t know why most of them are based in Gujarat) have a clear favourite in Election 2009. According to them, the Congress has its nose just in front and could touch the 140 mark. Congressmen and Congresswomen, in moments of candour, admit that the last two weeks have been terrible. Their erstwhile allies are hitting back with vengeance. Where will it stop?
Lalu has fantasies about the top job in Delhi, so does Sharad Pawar. If the Congress returns as the single largest party, how are Messrs Lalu and Pawar going to achieve their ambitions? Conventional wisdom holds that any party with around 30 seats can blackmail the Congress, not just about support but about the PM’s chair. Is that possible?
The BJP seems to be recovering its poise after the Varun Gandhi nonsense. This is such a calculated, brazen and cynical ploy by the mother and son duo for the latter to emerge as the "real" Hindutva icon, that I am surprised the lad’s antics are being taken so seriously.
Mr Advani has carefully and diligently plotted the BJP’s new governance profile. I hope Varun does not hijack Advani’s sensible agenda.
Is television responsible for creating Varun Gandhi as the BJP’s latest poster boy? I don’t think so. The reporting and the endless debates may have added marginally to his charisma, but he is his own creation. A senior BJP leader confessed to me that the party was taken completely by surprise by Varun’s dangerous gambit.
Tailpiece: A reporter once asked the late British prime minister, Harold Macmillan what he feared most in politics. "Events dear boy, events," replied the crafty old statesman. The Varun event is testimony to that insight.
OPINION - BJP Maths
By Rajinder Puri
The Varun Gandhi drama gives indication of carefully scripted and calibrated preparation involving several official and non-official actors... Even in the Byzantine intrigue characterizing Indian politics, is a tacit understanding between BJP and BSP possible?
The Varun Gandhi drama gives indication of carefully scripted and calibrated preparation involving several official and non-official actors. The manufactured events and the media hype made Mr Gandhi the focus of national attention in record short time. Mr Advani’s initial diffidence was replaced by an embarrassing degree of enthusiasm in his support for young Mr Gandhi. Is the drama unfolding spontaneously or according to a prepared script? If the latter, Mr Advani clearly was not in the loop to begin with. Is it hard to identify the producer and director of the drama? Suffice it to say that the swelling support among workers and voters for the BJP’s new mascot must have impelled rethinking among the BJP poll strategists.
If the drama is indeed through design and not by default, what is the plot, and what is the intended ending? That should not be difficult to fathom. Observe Miss Mayawati’s role. Her decision to use the NSA against Mr Gandhi achieved two results. It further sharpened the BJP’s Hindu profile; it enabled the BSP to extend its appeal to the Muslims. This heightened polarization of the vote along communal lines, pitching the BJP against the BSP, could marginalize both Congress and the Samajhwadi Party in UP.
Even in the Byzantine intrigue characterizing Indian politics, is a tacit understanding between BJP and BSP possible? And if it is, how will it benefit the BJP after the polls? Ms Sushma Swaraj let the cat out of the bag by stating quite realistically that after the polls the NDA may be short of numbers and would require new partners. She was lambasted for this by politicians and media stuck on the false notion that stating the truth hurts propaganda. If the NDA does indeed obtain the 230 seats for which it is struggling, how will it make up the numbers? Miss Mayawati and Miss Jayalalithaa are the obvious first choices to approach. But after the bitterness created between the BJP and BSP on the Varun drama is rapprochement at all possible?
Of course it is! In fact it is the oldest political confidence trick to hoodwink the voters. Recall early Punjab before NDA was created. The Akalis and Jan Sangh tore into each other during polls to consolidate their respective Sikh and Hindu vote banks. They made a coalition government after the polls. That was how Congress lost Punjab .
It might also be observed that Miss Mayawati’s style of functioning changed noticeably after she got forward caste advisers led by Mr Satish Mishra. She started reading out from a prepared script in her speeches and press conferences. She succeeded in forging an alliance with Brahmins thanks to Mr Mishra. The latter as a distinguished lawyer could also have been of great advantage as adviser to Miss Mayawati in the various court cases that have dogged her. Before joining the BSP Mr Mishra was the Advocate General of Uttar Pradesh. He had been appointed to that post with the blessing of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who was in office then.
It would be reckless of course to attempt any post poll surmise. But it would be best to keep a very open mind. Anything is possible.
The Varun Gandhi drama gives indication of carefully scripted and calibrated preparation involving several official and non-official actors... Even in the Byzantine intrigue characterizing Indian politics, is a tacit understanding between BJP and BSP possible?
The Varun Gandhi drama gives indication of carefully scripted and calibrated preparation involving several official and non-official actors. The manufactured events and the media hype made Mr Gandhi the focus of national attention in record short time. Mr Advani’s initial diffidence was replaced by an embarrassing degree of enthusiasm in his support for young Mr Gandhi. Is the drama unfolding spontaneously or according to a prepared script? If the latter, Mr Advani clearly was not in the loop to begin with. Is it hard to identify the producer and director of the drama? Suffice it to say that the swelling support among workers and voters for the BJP’s new mascot must have impelled rethinking among the BJP poll strategists.
If the drama is indeed through design and not by default, what is the plot, and what is the intended ending? That should not be difficult to fathom. Observe Miss Mayawati’s role. Her decision to use the NSA against Mr Gandhi achieved two results. It further sharpened the BJP’s Hindu profile; it enabled the BSP to extend its appeal to the Muslims. This heightened polarization of the vote along communal lines, pitching the BJP against the BSP, could marginalize both Congress and the Samajhwadi Party in UP.
Even in the Byzantine intrigue characterizing Indian politics, is a tacit understanding between BJP and BSP possible? And if it is, how will it benefit the BJP after the polls? Ms Sushma Swaraj let the cat out of the bag by stating quite realistically that after the polls the NDA may be short of numbers and would require new partners. She was lambasted for this by politicians and media stuck on the false notion that stating the truth hurts propaganda. If the NDA does indeed obtain the 230 seats for which it is struggling, how will it make up the numbers? Miss Mayawati and Miss Jayalalithaa are the obvious first choices to approach. But after the bitterness created between the BJP and BSP on the Varun drama is rapprochement at all possible?
Of course it is! In fact it is the oldest political confidence trick to hoodwink the voters. Recall early Punjab before NDA was created. The Akalis and Jan Sangh tore into each other during polls to consolidate their respective Sikh and Hindu vote banks. They made a coalition government after the polls. That was how Congress lost Punjab .
It might also be observed that Miss Mayawati’s style of functioning changed noticeably after she got forward caste advisers led by Mr Satish Mishra. She started reading out from a prepared script in her speeches and press conferences. She succeeded in forging an alliance with Brahmins thanks to Mr Mishra. The latter as a distinguished lawyer could also have been of great advantage as adviser to Miss Mayawati in the various court cases that have dogged her. Before joining the BSP Mr Mishra was the Advocate General of Uttar Pradesh. He had been appointed to that post with the blessing of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who was in office then.
It would be reckless of course to attempt any post poll surmise. But it would be best to keep a very open mind. Anything is possible.
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