By Neeta Lal
It is a sad reflection on the world's largest democracy - the one that gave the world its second female prime minister, Indira Gandhi - that despite 14 general elections and six decades of independence, Indian women still have an abysmal representation in parliament.
In other words, a demographic that constitutes over 50% of India's 1.1 billion population - or 340 million voters out of a total electorate of 710 million in 2009 - constitutes a lowly 9% of the total strength of the Lok Sabha (Lower House). Voters will head to the polls for this year's national election in phases from April 16 to May 13.
The lack of women's representation in India is all the more ironic considering it currently has a woman president, Pratibha Patil and the capital, New Delhi, has a female chief minister well into her third term, Sheila Dixit, and a female mayor, Arti Mehra.
Even at the national level, the head of the ruling Congress coalition - the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) - is Sonia Gandhi.
Regional politics has several women in leadership. Tamil Nadu has the chief minister Jayalalithaa Jayaram - leader of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party - while in India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, there is Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati - a likely prime minister candidate. In West Bengal there is the leader of the Trinamool Congress Party, Mamata Banerjee.
However, this is more or less where female supremacy ends in India. Because when it comes to actual power - say the berths in council of central ministers - barely 9% of the people at ministerial rank are women. Surveys have repeatedly highlighted that in the councils of ministers - both at national and state levels - Indian women are under-represented, with the country never having had more than one female cabinet minister at one time.
Furthermore, none of the major portfolios (External Affairs, Home or Finance) have ever been in the hands of women. If they have been, this has been due to makeshift arrangements. Similarly, in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House), where members are appointed and therefore can be more easily chosen to represent a wide spectrum of India, only 28 of the 242 seats currently are held by women.
The recent list of candidates for the upcoming general elections announced by major Indian political parties contain disproportionately low numbers of the fairer sex. In the Communist Party of India list, for instance, only three out of the 60 contesting candidates are women. The Congress Party's list of 24 candidates for Uttar Pradesh features only five women, while the main opposition party - the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party - has only 26 women among its 166 candidates. The Samajwadi Party has just six women candidates out of a total of 71 standing for election.
This unequal representation of Indian women in national and regional politics is all the more disquieting given that the Indian constitution guarantees gender equality in the Articles 325 and 326.
The Women's Reservation Bill, which seeks to reserve 33% of seats for women in parliament, has stalled in the absence of political consensus. Although in the recent past heated debate has been raised over the bill by women activists and different sections of Indian society, support for it has not gathered enough momentum to ensure its passage.
Women's organizations sent a memorandum to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in May 2008 demanding that the bill is voted on urgently, arguing that election year is a good opportunity for the government to ensure its passage. But there's been no action on this front. The incumbent UPA government has often been accused of betraying the commitments made in its programs to bring more women into the legislative process.
Repeated attempts to ensure places for women in parliament have invariably invoked stiff resistance amongst parliamentarians, mostly male, who feel threatened by the move. No sooner is the issue raised than pejorative terms like "caste" and "gender-based reservation" are deliberately raised to inflame tempers and prevent its passage.
This is concerning as most countries across the globe - including India's neighbors - provide a fair quota for women. Nepal has 33% reservation for women, Pakistan 22% and Bangladesh 14%. In March 2007, statistics released by the Inter-Parliamentary Union revealed that India ranked very low - 108 - among 189 countries so far as the percentage of women lawmakers in its Lower House was concerned.
This is not to say that India has not witnessed some growth in the participation of women in politics. In 1952, there was only 22 (4.4%) in the Lower House, but this reached 34 (6.7%) after the next general election. However, the trend reversed in the next three elections with women representing a meager 19 (3.4%) in the sixth Lower House in 1977, the lowest ever. Subsequent elections witnessed some growth, except in 1989 when the number of women in parliament plummeted to 27 from 44 . From 1991, the number has been on an upward trajectory, reaching 44 in 1998 and 49 in 1999.
Interestingly, poorer states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan seem to have elected a higher number of women members of parliament than more developed and urbanized states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
Brinda Karat, a Rajya Sabha member of parliament and a politburo member of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), recently told Indian media that the low presence of women in the Indian legislature stems from the perception that they will be unable to mobilize adequate funds and, hence, are not considered "winnable".
"The Indian system has repeatedly sent out a message that unless there is a legal mandate on political parties, we will continue with this dismal picture," said Karat. "It is a shame on our democracy that even after 60 years of independence less than 10% of women get elected in state elections across five states and that we haven't been able to pass the Women's Reservation Bill. This will continue unless there is a change in the mindset of political parties," she added.
It would be a good idea for Karat to begin by changing the "mindset" of her own party, which didn't field even a single woman candidate out of the 34 seats it contested in Rajasthan. However, she raises a valid point, that the Indian "system" will have to politically empower its women if it is to one day achieve holistic national development.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
India begins uphill journey with the SCO
By M K Bhadrakumar
A shift in India's approach to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become unavoidable as Indian regional policy in Central Asia painstakingly works its way out of a cul-de-sac. Tentative signs first appeared during the visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Delhi last December and formed part of a rethink against the backdrop of the transition of power in Washington.
In a manner of speaking, Delhi began a slow, painful process of edging away from the George W Bush era. A top Indian official said over the weekend that it has become an "uphill task" for Indian diplomacy to cope with US President Barack Obama's Central Asia policy with regard to Afghanistan.
The shift in Indian thinking comes not too soon as the government's lackadaisical approach to the SCO through the past five-year period is increasingly becoming unsustainable. The heart of the matter is that the SCO is much more than a mere clearing house for the Caspian hydrocarbon reserves but is a security organization first and foremost. (The SCO comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.)
Not that the Indian government did not realize this. But it pretended otherwise since Delhi was striving to harmonize India's regional policies with the George W Bush administration, and the SCO was anathema to Washington, being a challenge to the US strategy to propel the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the prime security framework in the Central Asian region.
The Bush administration's "Great Central Asia" strategy attributed a pivotal role to India insofar as it envisaged India as a balancer to the traditional Russian (and increasingly Chinese) influence in that strategically vital region. Senior officials of the Bush administration and noted American regional experts and think-tankers dropped by in Delhi on a regular basis and nudged the Indian establishment toward the "Great Central Asia" strategy.
The main thrust of the US diplomacy was to use Afghanistan as a strategic bridge between Central Asia and South Asia and to encourage the Central Asian states to forge economic and political bonds with India. On a parallel track, the Bush administration's strategy strove to involve India gradually in the NATO processes so that the alliance's agenda of isolating Russia and containing China received a fillip.
In the kind of worldview - or "global vision" - that the present Indian government (which is completing its five-year term in May) claimed to possess, the US's regional strategy aimed at building up India as a major regional player and as a counterweight to China.
The Bush administration carefully nurtured these Indian aspirations - though Washington also quietly kept encouraging Beijing to make inroads into the Russian preserves in Central Asia and began developing common ground between the US and China on the contentious agenda of energy security.
At any rate, the Indian government followed a policy of masterful inactivity towards the SCO. The most glaring sign of this was that India was the only country among the SCO's member and observer countries that was not represented at head of state/government level at the organization's gala fifth anniversary summit meeting in June 2006 in Shanghai. In an appalling insensitivity toward the SCO's political agenda, Delhi kept insisting that petroleum minister Murali Deora, in the Indian cabinet, was the most appropriate official to advance the country's interests within the SCO.
For these reasons, the SCO's conference in Moscow on March 27 holds special significance for Delhi. The conference underscores that regional security and stability have been and always will remain as the raison d'etre of the organization. The agenda of the Moscow conference focuses on the situation in Afghanistan and how a regional initiative can be structured for stabilizing that country. The Indian decision to participate in the conference at the level of the prime minister's special envoy duly takes note that the SCO is placing itself in a key role in any Afghan settlement.
The main challenge for Indian diplomacy is that among the regional capitals, Delhi faces potential isolation apropos the Afghan problem. This is partly because of the centrality of Pakistan in any Afghan settlement, and most big powers are chary of Islamabad's aversion to including Delhi at the high table of conflict resolution in the Hindu Kush. Furthermore, India's adversarial relationship with Pakistan somehow has come to figure as a major template of the Afghan problem.
Such a linkage, historically, has no basis and must be counted as a failure of India's Afghan policy in the past seven years. Delhi now has to grapple with growing international opinion - especially among Western experts - that a regional solution to the Afghan problem must include a settlement ("grand bargain") of India-Pakistan differences, including Kashmir.
In retrospect, the propensity of Indian policymakers to view Afghanistan as a "second front" against Pakistan and build up an axis with the Kabul government has come to haunt them. India should have known that the government of President Hamid Karzai was too fragile as an ally. The irony is that the Obama administration itself has lately put a distance between itself and Karzai.
The SCO conference in Moscow, therefore, provides a window of opportunity for India to harmonize its Afghan policy with Russia, China, Iran and the Central Asian states. But this also poses challenges to Delhi insofar as India's US-centric foreign policy during the recent years has not gone down well in the region. Indian diplomacy must strain every nerve to recapture the verve of strategic understanding that India used to enjoy with Russia and Iran.
Nonetheless, the Moscow conference provides India with an opportunity to become part of a major regional initiative on Afghanistan's stabilization. It is highly unlikely that the SCO will be inclined to take a stance that is confrontational vis-a-vis the US's strategy. This provides comfortable space for India to negotiate. (Incidentally, India is also participating in the US-sponsored conference on Afghanistan scheduled to be held at The Hague on March 31.)
The bottom line of current Indian diplomacy is that Delhi should find a berth in the mainstream international and regional efforts in search of an Afghan settlement. Clearly, India shares the SCO's concerns over the ascendancy of the forces of religious extremism and militancy in Afghanistan. Having said that, the Indian stance towards the Taliban remains rooted in the past, whereas international opinion has evolved and nuances have appeared in Russian, Iranian and Chinese thinking. Whereas India remains stuck in the argumentative contention that there is nothing like "good" or "bad" Taliban, the Russian and Chinese stances seem to take note of the fact that the Taliban do not constitute a monolithic movement.
Moscow and Beijing seem to appreciate that there could be "moderate" elements within the Taliban, and the issue is really how practical will be any attempt to distinguish the moderate elements in the present climate of violence where the hardliners call the shots. In comparison, as a top Indian official maintained, Delhi insists that the task ahead is to "isolate the Taliban and deal with Afghanistan". He added wryly, "We do not accept this 'good-Taliban-bad-Taliban' theory because how do you decide who is a 'good Taliban'?"
All the same, India would share with Russia and China a deep sense of disquiet over any US attempts to bring about a regime change in Kabul. All three countries have made sustained efforts to cultivate Karzai and will be loathe to forfeit their political capital if the Obama administration chooses to replace him. All three, equally, would like to see that any change of leadership in Kabul should be a matter left to the Afghans themselves to decide rather than for the international community to prescribe.
The SCO, in fact, has taken a consistent position on the subject of regime change. On the Andijan uprising in Uzbekistan in July 2005, and the failed "Tulip" revolution in Kyrgyzstan earlier in the same year, in March, the SCO took a clearcut position opposing the US's intrusive regional policies. This was one of the main issues for the SCO's extraordinary call at its summit meeting in Astana in July 2005 for the termination of the American military base in Manas, Kyrgyzstan.
But Delhi assesses that a sense of realism is finally prevailing in the Obama administration about the importance of Karzai and there is no longer any compelling urge felt within the Obama administration to rush through a regime change in Kabul.
Another area of similarity in the Indian, Russian and Chinese approaches will be the three countries' emphasis on the "Afghanization" of the war. That is to say, all three countries are of the opinion that enduring peace cannot come to Afghanistan unless the capacity of the Kabul government is strengthened and the importance of economic reconstruction duly recognized. Similarly, all three countries share an aversion towards deploying troops in Afghanistan, but are prepared to make substantial contributions as "stakeholders" within that threshold.
Finally, India is developing proximity with the SCO at a time when NATO and Pakistan are getting close to establishing a formal relationship. NATO is keen on stepping up its cooperation with Pakistan, and Islamabad also wants to engage more with the alliance. NATO is working on improving its lines of communication through Pakistan, despite the availability of a northern corridor through Russian territory.
This is understandable, as NATO would like to keep in check the dependence on Russia, which has implications for European security and US-Russia relations on the whole. But 80% of NATO supplies for Afghanistan pass through Pakistani territory. Thus, NATO is under compulsion to seek a qualitatively new level of relationship with Pakistan, making it a partner in the alliance's operations in the region. NATO's decision to establish a "liaison office" in Islamabad will be seen from this perspective.
Without doubt, the developing NATO-Pakistan tango will be closely watched in Delhi. Also of concern to Delhi is NATO's plan to develop a new matrix of intelligence-sharing with Pakistan, even as the alliance is in the process of setting up six border cooperation centers along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The idea is to conduct joint NATO-Pakistan military operations along the border and make it a regular process with set agendas. Incidentally, Pakistan is already operating an intelligence cell in Kabul which coordinates with NATO.
Obviously, there is a divergence of opinion between NATO and Delhi regarding Pakistan's role in the stabilization of Afghanistan, where India views Pakistan as part of the problem. But NATO sees things differently. A senior Indian official said over the weekend, "Our view is that Pakistan should not use extremism as a strategic instrument and that it should make that choice clear."
But the NATO perspective on Pakistan lacks any such cutting edge. On the contrary, it is manifestly sanguine. The aide to NATO's secretary general and the director of policy planning, Jamie Shea, said recently, "We've [NATO] got to bring Pakistan as closely as we can into a regional approach in order to be successful in Afghanistan ... We want the closest possible relationship with [Pakistan] on the basis that the threat we face is also the threat they face - and that they can't face it without us and we can't face it without them. So there is the logic of working more closely together."
Fair enough. But what is bound to raise eyebrows in Delhi are the nascent moves by NATO - under active US and British encouragement - to have a long-term bilateral security cooperation program with Pakistan within an institutionalized framework. Shea broadly admitted, "There have been some ideas that have been around about assistance the [NATO] allies could provide to the Pakistani armed forces ... So I don't rule it [formal structures such as the Partnership for Peace program] out. But we're going step by step."
In short, NATO disagrees with Delhi's bleak view regarding Pakistani intentions. Shea said, "I think it would be very unfair to claim that they [Pakistani military] are not putting their shoulder to the wheel, as we say, in terms of making an effort. They could perhaps benefit from assistance and training, or whatever, that could be given by allies. That's something we may discuss with them in the future. But, of course, we cannot impose that upon Pakistan."
The Pakistani military being raised to NATO standards? Arguably, it is a logical move if viewed in the context of the struggle against terrorism. But then, India holds an altogether different sort of prism for viewing the Pakistani military.
At the Moscow conference, the Indian special envoy is almost certain to realize that there are virtually no takers in the region to any campaign to isolate or "pressure" Pakistan. The SCO - like NATO - will in all probability also visualize Pakistan as part of the solution rather than berate it as the problem. None of the SCO member countries will be interested in isolating Pakistan. Curiously, Pakistan may find itself being courted by NATO and the SCO alike. The region's geopolitics are dramatically changing.
A shift in India's approach to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become unavoidable as Indian regional policy in Central Asia painstakingly works its way out of a cul-de-sac. Tentative signs first appeared during the visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Delhi last December and formed part of a rethink against the backdrop of the transition of power in Washington.
In a manner of speaking, Delhi began a slow, painful process of edging away from the George W Bush era. A top Indian official said over the weekend that it has become an "uphill task" for Indian diplomacy to cope with US President Barack Obama's Central Asia policy with regard to Afghanistan.
The shift in Indian thinking comes not too soon as the government's lackadaisical approach to the SCO through the past five-year period is increasingly becoming unsustainable. The heart of the matter is that the SCO is much more than a mere clearing house for the Caspian hydrocarbon reserves but is a security organization first and foremost. (The SCO comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.)
Not that the Indian government did not realize this. But it pretended otherwise since Delhi was striving to harmonize India's regional policies with the George W Bush administration, and the SCO was anathema to Washington, being a challenge to the US strategy to propel the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the prime security framework in the Central Asian region.
The Bush administration's "Great Central Asia" strategy attributed a pivotal role to India insofar as it envisaged India as a balancer to the traditional Russian (and increasingly Chinese) influence in that strategically vital region. Senior officials of the Bush administration and noted American regional experts and think-tankers dropped by in Delhi on a regular basis and nudged the Indian establishment toward the "Great Central Asia" strategy.
The main thrust of the US diplomacy was to use Afghanistan as a strategic bridge between Central Asia and South Asia and to encourage the Central Asian states to forge economic and political bonds with India. On a parallel track, the Bush administration's strategy strove to involve India gradually in the NATO processes so that the alliance's agenda of isolating Russia and containing China received a fillip.
In the kind of worldview - or "global vision" - that the present Indian government (which is completing its five-year term in May) claimed to possess, the US's regional strategy aimed at building up India as a major regional player and as a counterweight to China.
The Bush administration carefully nurtured these Indian aspirations - though Washington also quietly kept encouraging Beijing to make inroads into the Russian preserves in Central Asia and began developing common ground between the US and China on the contentious agenda of energy security.
At any rate, the Indian government followed a policy of masterful inactivity towards the SCO. The most glaring sign of this was that India was the only country among the SCO's member and observer countries that was not represented at head of state/government level at the organization's gala fifth anniversary summit meeting in June 2006 in Shanghai. In an appalling insensitivity toward the SCO's political agenda, Delhi kept insisting that petroleum minister Murali Deora, in the Indian cabinet, was the most appropriate official to advance the country's interests within the SCO.
For these reasons, the SCO's conference in Moscow on March 27 holds special significance for Delhi. The conference underscores that regional security and stability have been and always will remain as the raison d'etre of the organization. The agenda of the Moscow conference focuses on the situation in Afghanistan and how a regional initiative can be structured for stabilizing that country. The Indian decision to participate in the conference at the level of the prime minister's special envoy duly takes note that the SCO is placing itself in a key role in any Afghan settlement.
The main challenge for Indian diplomacy is that among the regional capitals, Delhi faces potential isolation apropos the Afghan problem. This is partly because of the centrality of Pakistan in any Afghan settlement, and most big powers are chary of Islamabad's aversion to including Delhi at the high table of conflict resolution in the Hindu Kush. Furthermore, India's adversarial relationship with Pakistan somehow has come to figure as a major template of the Afghan problem.
Such a linkage, historically, has no basis and must be counted as a failure of India's Afghan policy in the past seven years. Delhi now has to grapple with growing international opinion - especially among Western experts - that a regional solution to the Afghan problem must include a settlement ("grand bargain") of India-Pakistan differences, including Kashmir.
In retrospect, the propensity of Indian policymakers to view Afghanistan as a "second front" against Pakistan and build up an axis with the Kabul government has come to haunt them. India should have known that the government of President Hamid Karzai was too fragile as an ally. The irony is that the Obama administration itself has lately put a distance between itself and Karzai.
The SCO conference in Moscow, therefore, provides a window of opportunity for India to harmonize its Afghan policy with Russia, China, Iran and the Central Asian states. But this also poses challenges to Delhi insofar as India's US-centric foreign policy during the recent years has not gone down well in the region. Indian diplomacy must strain every nerve to recapture the verve of strategic understanding that India used to enjoy with Russia and Iran.
Nonetheless, the Moscow conference provides India with an opportunity to become part of a major regional initiative on Afghanistan's stabilization. It is highly unlikely that the SCO will be inclined to take a stance that is confrontational vis-a-vis the US's strategy. This provides comfortable space for India to negotiate. (Incidentally, India is also participating in the US-sponsored conference on Afghanistan scheduled to be held at The Hague on March 31.)
The bottom line of current Indian diplomacy is that Delhi should find a berth in the mainstream international and regional efforts in search of an Afghan settlement. Clearly, India shares the SCO's concerns over the ascendancy of the forces of religious extremism and militancy in Afghanistan. Having said that, the Indian stance towards the Taliban remains rooted in the past, whereas international opinion has evolved and nuances have appeared in Russian, Iranian and Chinese thinking. Whereas India remains stuck in the argumentative contention that there is nothing like "good" or "bad" Taliban, the Russian and Chinese stances seem to take note of the fact that the Taliban do not constitute a monolithic movement.
Moscow and Beijing seem to appreciate that there could be "moderate" elements within the Taliban, and the issue is really how practical will be any attempt to distinguish the moderate elements in the present climate of violence where the hardliners call the shots. In comparison, as a top Indian official maintained, Delhi insists that the task ahead is to "isolate the Taliban and deal with Afghanistan". He added wryly, "We do not accept this 'good-Taliban-bad-Taliban' theory because how do you decide who is a 'good Taliban'?"
All the same, India would share with Russia and China a deep sense of disquiet over any US attempts to bring about a regime change in Kabul. All three countries have made sustained efforts to cultivate Karzai and will be loathe to forfeit their political capital if the Obama administration chooses to replace him. All three, equally, would like to see that any change of leadership in Kabul should be a matter left to the Afghans themselves to decide rather than for the international community to prescribe.
The SCO, in fact, has taken a consistent position on the subject of regime change. On the Andijan uprising in Uzbekistan in July 2005, and the failed "Tulip" revolution in Kyrgyzstan earlier in the same year, in March, the SCO took a clearcut position opposing the US's intrusive regional policies. This was one of the main issues for the SCO's extraordinary call at its summit meeting in Astana in July 2005 for the termination of the American military base in Manas, Kyrgyzstan.
But Delhi assesses that a sense of realism is finally prevailing in the Obama administration about the importance of Karzai and there is no longer any compelling urge felt within the Obama administration to rush through a regime change in Kabul.
Another area of similarity in the Indian, Russian and Chinese approaches will be the three countries' emphasis on the "Afghanization" of the war. That is to say, all three countries are of the opinion that enduring peace cannot come to Afghanistan unless the capacity of the Kabul government is strengthened and the importance of economic reconstruction duly recognized. Similarly, all three countries share an aversion towards deploying troops in Afghanistan, but are prepared to make substantial contributions as "stakeholders" within that threshold.
Finally, India is developing proximity with the SCO at a time when NATO and Pakistan are getting close to establishing a formal relationship. NATO is keen on stepping up its cooperation with Pakistan, and Islamabad also wants to engage more with the alliance. NATO is working on improving its lines of communication through Pakistan, despite the availability of a northern corridor through Russian territory.
This is understandable, as NATO would like to keep in check the dependence on Russia, which has implications for European security and US-Russia relations on the whole. But 80% of NATO supplies for Afghanistan pass through Pakistani territory. Thus, NATO is under compulsion to seek a qualitatively new level of relationship with Pakistan, making it a partner in the alliance's operations in the region. NATO's decision to establish a "liaison office" in Islamabad will be seen from this perspective.
Without doubt, the developing NATO-Pakistan tango will be closely watched in Delhi. Also of concern to Delhi is NATO's plan to develop a new matrix of intelligence-sharing with Pakistan, even as the alliance is in the process of setting up six border cooperation centers along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The idea is to conduct joint NATO-Pakistan military operations along the border and make it a regular process with set agendas. Incidentally, Pakistan is already operating an intelligence cell in Kabul which coordinates with NATO.
Obviously, there is a divergence of opinion between NATO and Delhi regarding Pakistan's role in the stabilization of Afghanistan, where India views Pakistan as part of the problem. But NATO sees things differently. A senior Indian official said over the weekend, "Our view is that Pakistan should not use extremism as a strategic instrument and that it should make that choice clear."
But the NATO perspective on Pakistan lacks any such cutting edge. On the contrary, it is manifestly sanguine. The aide to NATO's secretary general and the director of policy planning, Jamie Shea, said recently, "We've [NATO] got to bring Pakistan as closely as we can into a regional approach in order to be successful in Afghanistan ... We want the closest possible relationship with [Pakistan] on the basis that the threat we face is also the threat they face - and that they can't face it without us and we can't face it without them. So there is the logic of working more closely together."
Fair enough. But what is bound to raise eyebrows in Delhi are the nascent moves by NATO - under active US and British encouragement - to have a long-term bilateral security cooperation program with Pakistan within an institutionalized framework. Shea broadly admitted, "There have been some ideas that have been around about assistance the [NATO] allies could provide to the Pakistani armed forces ... So I don't rule it [formal structures such as the Partnership for Peace program] out. But we're going step by step."
In short, NATO disagrees with Delhi's bleak view regarding Pakistani intentions. Shea said, "I think it would be very unfair to claim that they [Pakistani military] are not putting their shoulder to the wheel, as we say, in terms of making an effort. They could perhaps benefit from assistance and training, or whatever, that could be given by allies. That's something we may discuss with them in the future. But, of course, we cannot impose that upon Pakistan."
The Pakistani military being raised to NATO standards? Arguably, it is a logical move if viewed in the context of the struggle against terrorism. But then, India holds an altogether different sort of prism for viewing the Pakistani military.
At the Moscow conference, the Indian special envoy is almost certain to realize that there are virtually no takers in the region to any campaign to isolate or "pressure" Pakistan. The SCO - like NATO - will in all probability also visualize Pakistan as part of the solution rather than berate it as the problem. None of the SCO member countries will be interested in isolating Pakistan. Curiously, Pakistan may find itself being courted by NATO and the SCO alike. The region's geopolitics are dramatically changing.
Even a 12-year-old has a voter ID in Hyderabad
By M H Ahssan
A 12-year-old has an electoral photo identity card (EPIC), a Marredpally resident has two voter IDs and a couple who have been voting for decades are at a loss to find only the husband’s name in the voters’ list. These anomalies have come to light during verification of the voters’ list by some non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
During the verification of electoral rolls in the old city, Election Watch, an NGO, found a minor having an EPIC card. “At Haribowli near Shahalibanda, 12-year-old Kaustubh Nanajkar was given a voter identity c a rd (DMR4379061). The EPIC shows him to be 19 years of age and a resident of 973, Shahalibanda. We have also brought it to the notice of the chief electoral officer (CEO),” said Election Watch state convenor M Veda Kumar. S Srinivasa Reddy, project director of Association for Promoting Social Action (APSA), said in the Secunderabad cantonment constituency it was found that a person, O Lingaiah, 65, with an EPIC (GBZ7991326), was issued another voter card with his photo.
However, the EPIC (GBZ7995152) had a different name, Kanakaiah, 29, with his neighbour’s address. Similarly, A Krishna, a resident of C-3-35-231, East Marredpally, was issued multiple cards with different names. Likewise, during verification of voter’s list, United Federation of Resident Welfare Associations (UFerwas) found members of same families were in two different polling stations. Also, the volunteers found that people who had died several years ago were still eligible to vote.
At Valmiki Nagar in East Marredpally, the volunteers found one M Ravinder ( ID: GBZ1534056) died two years ago, but his name was still there in the voter’s list. “Names of four persons who died two years ago are still in the voter’s list, but the name of my mother, who has been a voter for over 30 years, is missing. We have registered her name again a year ago, but she is yet to get EPIC,” P Srihari of Valmiki Nagar said. When contacted, Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) additional commissioner (Elections) Neetu Prasad told TOI that till now they had not received any complaints of multiple cards in the name of one person.
“If any such irregularities are brought to our notice, we will look into it,” she added. “Till now, we did not get any complaint about multiple cards issued to the same person. If such cases are reported it should be surrendered,” said assistant returning officer, Secunderabad Contonment Board O Gajjaram.
A 12-year-old has an electoral photo identity card (EPIC), a Marredpally resident has two voter IDs and a couple who have been voting for decades are at a loss to find only the husband’s name in the voters’ list. These anomalies have come to light during verification of the voters’ list by some non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
During the verification of electoral rolls in the old city, Election Watch, an NGO, found a minor having an EPIC card. “At Haribowli near Shahalibanda, 12-year-old Kaustubh Nanajkar was given a voter identity c a rd (DMR4379061). The EPIC shows him to be 19 years of age and a resident of 973, Shahalibanda. We have also brought it to the notice of the chief electoral officer (CEO),” said Election Watch state convenor M Veda Kumar. S Srinivasa Reddy, project director of Association for Promoting Social Action (APSA), said in the Secunderabad cantonment constituency it was found that a person, O Lingaiah, 65, with an EPIC (GBZ7991326), was issued another voter card with his photo.
However, the EPIC (GBZ7995152) had a different name, Kanakaiah, 29, with his neighbour’s address. Similarly, A Krishna, a resident of C-3-35-231, East Marredpally, was issued multiple cards with different names. Likewise, during verification of voter’s list, United Federation of Resident Welfare Associations (UFerwas) found members of same families were in two different polling stations. Also, the volunteers found that people who had died several years ago were still eligible to vote.
At Valmiki Nagar in East Marredpally, the volunteers found one M Ravinder ( ID: GBZ1534056) died two years ago, but his name was still there in the voter’s list. “Names of four persons who died two years ago are still in the voter’s list, but the name of my mother, who has been a voter for over 30 years, is missing. We have registered her name again a year ago, but she is yet to get EPIC,” P Srihari of Valmiki Nagar said. When contacted, Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) additional commissioner (Elections) Neetu Prasad told TOI that till now they had not received any complaints of multiple cards in the name of one person.
“If any such irregularities are brought to our notice, we will look into it,” she added. “Till now, we did not get any complaint about multiple cards issued to the same person. If such cases are reported it should be surrendered,” said assistant returning officer, Secunderabad Contonment Board O Gajjaram.
A battle for the Muslim in Hyderabad
By M H Ahssan
A middle-aged woman in an autorickshaw stops Asaduddin Owaisi as he is on a vote seeking padayatra in the Habeebnagar area of Chandrayangutta. “Why haven’t you been seen here for years?” she asks. Asad, trained to be a lawyer, is quick to reply: “But everything is working fine here, isn’t it? Why do you need to see me when everything is ok?”
“We take care of all problems. So MP saheb does not have to come here,” Mohammed Khaja Moinuddin, area president of Majlis-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (MIM) tells this correspondent in an aside as Asad continues on his padayatra through an area where brightly painted houses with electricity meters and closed drains does not convey the impression of it being a lower middle class neighbourhood. “Much of this development is due to us. We made the state government part with funds,” Asad claims as boys hired by the party beat drums to announce that the big man is around. Asad’s assertions may be right or wrong but the 38-year-old MP contesting the first election post the demise of his father and founder of MIM is locked in a tough battle.
Twenty kilometres away from where Asad is walking, another man is out on a padayatra too. He is Zahed Ali Khan, editor of Urdu daily Siasat who, fed up by the state of affairs, has decided to jump into the electoral fray challenging Owaisi from the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat. Accompanied by CPM Rajya Sabha MP, P Madhu and his gang of red activists in the Hakimpet area of Tolichowki, Khan asserts powerfully from a hand mike: “Yahan koi mahfooz nahin, bache bhi nahin. Darusalam ki toli khud kha peekar so rahi hai, aur aap ke baare koi sochta nahin...Yeh goondagardi ka raaj hai.” (Here nobody is safe. The MIM bosses are enjoying themselves not bothered about you. This is a regime of violence).
In an aside Madhu tells TOI: “The evil empire of MIM has to be broken, the empire that is based on zabardasti, on land grabbing, violence and intimidating people. Their game is based on keeping the Muslims poor and dependent on them. And they use might as their right and ask for votes claiming that Islam khatre mein hai”. Madhu has been working in the Old City area for two years and has had numerous clashes with MIM.
Sixty-two-year-old Khan, scion of an aristocratic family whose daily Siasat along with its rival Munsif has had a long duel with the MIM is supported by the Grand Alliance, but a little bird tells us that the TDP cadres have not really been active in campaigning for him. Prajarajyam and the Majlis Bachao Tehreek is also supporting Khan even as the Congress (supporting the MIM) has put up a weak candidate. The BJP is, for the first time, is mulling about fielding a Muslim candidate from the Hyderabad seat that— after delimitation— has 13.31 lakh voters. Of this, 9 lakhs are Muslims and 4 lakhs are Hindus. There are seven assembly segments of which one -Bahadurpura has 92 per cent Muslim voters. The other assembly segments are
Karwan, Ghoshamahal, Charminar, Yakutpura, Chandrayangutta and Malakpet. “In the past, there were not so many Muslim voters in this Lok Sabha constituency that has elected an MIM MP without break since 1984. But delimitation has made it in impregnable Muslim fortress, so much so that the BJP has to field a Muslim from here,” says an analyst.
“We are happy that an intense contest is being fought and this is so for the first time in many years. This is what democracy is all about,” writer Ali Zaheer says. Other analysts point out that although MIM has cadres who have been working at the grassroots level, Siasat and Munsif with its writings have kept a check on them to ensure that things don’t go awry. “In that sense Zahid Ali Khan’s contesting is a logical progression of his work but whether he has the grassroots organisation is the issue,” an old city resident says.
Talking to HNN, Zahid Ali Khan himself says: “I want to restore the glory of Hyderabad, the days of composite culture, of celebrating festivals together. Also I am campaigning for development of the Old City in areas of education and business.”
Asaduddin Owaisi is more candid. “Muslims have very little representation in politics. This is the only Muslim seat in the state, only a real Muslim should be elected from here. We are asking for votes on this ground,” he says.
Clearly then it is a battle for the Muslim mind in the Lok Sabha constituency of Hyderabad.
A middle-aged woman in an autorickshaw stops Asaduddin Owaisi as he is on a vote seeking padayatra in the Habeebnagar area of Chandrayangutta. “Why haven’t you been seen here for years?” she asks. Asad, trained to be a lawyer, is quick to reply: “But everything is working fine here, isn’t it? Why do you need to see me when everything is ok?”
“We take care of all problems. So MP saheb does not have to come here,” Mohammed Khaja Moinuddin, area president of Majlis-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (MIM) tells this correspondent in an aside as Asad continues on his padayatra through an area where brightly painted houses with electricity meters and closed drains does not convey the impression of it being a lower middle class neighbourhood. “Much of this development is due to us. We made the state government part with funds,” Asad claims as boys hired by the party beat drums to announce that the big man is around. Asad’s assertions may be right or wrong but the 38-year-old MP contesting the first election post the demise of his father and founder of MIM is locked in a tough battle.
Twenty kilometres away from where Asad is walking, another man is out on a padayatra too. He is Zahed Ali Khan, editor of Urdu daily Siasat who, fed up by the state of affairs, has decided to jump into the electoral fray challenging Owaisi from the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat. Accompanied by CPM Rajya Sabha MP, P Madhu and his gang of red activists in the Hakimpet area of Tolichowki, Khan asserts powerfully from a hand mike: “Yahan koi mahfooz nahin, bache bhi nahin. Darusalam ki toli khud kha peekar so rahi hai, aur aap ke baare koi sochta nahin...Yeh goondagardi ka raaj hai.” (Here nobody is safe. The MIM bosses are enjoying themselves not bothered about you. This is a regime of violence).
In an aside Madhu tells TOI: “The evil empire of MIM has to be broken, the empire that is based on zabardasti, on land grabbing, violence and intimidating people. Their game is based on keeping the Muslims poor and dependent on them. And they use might as their right and ask for votes claiming that Islam khatre mein hai”. Madhu has been working in the Old City area for two years and has had numerous clashes with MIM.
Sixty-two-year-old Khan, scion of an aristocratic family whose daily Siasat along with its rival Munsif has had a long duel with the MIM is supported by the Grand Alliance, but a little bird tells us that the TDP cadres have not really been active in campaigning for him. Prajarajyam and the Majlis Bachao Tehreek is also supporting Khan even as the Congress (supporting the MIM) has put up a weak candidate. The BJP is, for the first time, is mulling about fielding a Muslim candidate from the Hyderabad seat that— after delimitation— has 13.31 lakh voters. Of this, 9 lakhs are Muslims and 4 lakhs are Hindus. There are seven assembly segments of which one -Bahadurpura has 92 per cent Muslim voters. The other assembly segments are
Karwan, Ghoshamahal, Charminar, Yakutpura, Chandrayangutta and Malakpet. “In the past, there were not so many Muslim voters in this Lok Sabha constituency that has elected an MIM MP without break since 1984. But delimitation has made it in impregnable Muslim fortress, so much so that the BJP has to field a Muslim from here,” says an analyst.
“We are happy that an intense contest is being fought and this is so for the first time in many years. This is what democracy is all about,” writer Ali Zaheer says. Other analysts point out that although MIM has cadres who have been working at the grassroots level, Siasat and Munsif with its writings have kept a check on them to ensure that things don’t go awry. “In that sense Zahid Ali Khan’s contesting is a logical progression of his work but whether he has the grassroots organisation is the issue,” an old city resident says.
Talking to HNN, Zahid Ali Khan himself says: “I want to restore the glory of Hyderabad, the days of composite culture, of celebrating festivals together. Also I am campaigning for development of the Old City in areas of education and business.”
Asaduddin Owaisi is more candid. “Muslims have very little representation in politics. This is the only Muslim seat in the state, only a real Muslim should be elected from here. We are asking for votes on this ground,” he says.
Clearly then it is a battle for the Muslim mind in the Lok Sabha constituency of Hyderabad.
Face the Elections: BJP must deny Varun ticket
By M H Ahssan
Varun Gandhi does not know his Hinduism, says cousin Priyanka Gandhi, in a first time Gandhi family attack on Varun's alleged communal speech. But while his cousin was unsparing in her attack, Varun found support too.
The BJP on Monday came out strongly against the Election Commission (EC) for advising the party not to give Varun a ticket. The BJP questioned the EC's jurisdiction in advising parties on their candidates. The BJP said it stands firmly united behind Varun and that he is their candidate from Pilibhit.
The question that was being asked on CNN-IBN's show Face the Elections was: Should BJP deny Varun Gandhi a ticket to contest elections?
On the panel of experts were MP and Congress Spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi; Rajya Sabha MP and BJP Spokesperson Balbir Punj and senior lawyer Ashok H Desai.
SMS polls at the beginning of the show stood at 62 per cent saying 'Yes' and 38 per cent saying 'No'.
THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE CD
The BJP's aggressive stand appears like an attack on the EC. The EC has advised BJP not to let the candidate contest and this advice carries an enormous amount of weight. There is an argument, therefore, that the BJP should respect the EC's advice.
Balbir Punj started the debate by replying to the above statement. He said that the EC has taken an unprecedented step by advising the BJP not to allow a particular candidate from contesting the Pilibhit seat. "The EC did not give a chance to the accused to come and clarify, it decided by itself in three days. This is not the right way to do things," he said.
The EC perhaps took an unprecedented step because Varun's speech was shocking, and no one before has ever made statements like Varun did.
An article recently stated: "Varun Gandhi has used the language that is so appalling, so violent, so vicious that even a most hardened communalist would blush". Therefore, observers feel the EC was justified in taking such quick steps and in such a scenario, the BJP should be fighting against the alleged hate speech and not against EC.
Balbir Punj said that EC's methodology for accusing Varun is unknown. "Varun Gandhi has repeatedly said that the CD which has been shown on TV channels definitely has his face but it doesn't have his voice," he stated. He emphasised that the investigation was done in three days without any technical assistance to analyse the CD.
If Balbir Punj's point is considered, it appears that that EC has over-stepped its brief and is guilty of interfering in the democratic process.
At this point, Ashok Desai joined the debate and said that the EC very clearly stated that it knows its limitations. "They are conscious of the code of conduct, but this speech diminishes a large number of our fellow citizens. In such a case if the EC is alerting people that such speeches are dangerous, it is nothing unusual," he firmly said. "Varun Gandhi may not only sink himself but also his party," he added.
This, however, is ironical that someone violating the Constitution - if elected - will have to swear on the same Constitution and uphold its values. And if the BJP does not take any stern measure, it could lead to a disaster in the future, giving any politician the right to say anything in the future.
Balbir Punj chipped in saying that Varun Gandhi is only an accused and not guilty and therefore one should not pass judgment against him at this stage.
However, looking at the contents of the CD, nobody would say that it is morphed. BJP is only trying to ignore the matter and not admit that it needs to control the hate speech that emanates from its party. But Balbir Punj was adamant, stating that the BJP was not shying away from the subject. The party, he said, was simply unclear on the authenticity of the source itself.
For those who wanted to know whether the Congress thought in the same way as the BJP - that the EC should have spent more time on analysing the credibility of the CD rather than jumping on to conclusions - Abhishek Manu Singhvi had an answer. He said, "BJP's animosity and non-secular attitude does not even deserve to be projected in national programs. It is too petty and deserves to be ignored."
He added that the more the BJP is advising, the more it is getting into exposing itself. "The EC has itself said that it is just sounding an advisory. The BJP is shamelessly supporting Varun Gandhi. Even a blind man can identify the truth in the CD," he said.
THE MORAL DEBATE
This statement of Singhvi's raised questions on the BJP's morality, its conscience and the politics that the BJP is playing. Assuming that Varun Gandhi has actually said what he has been accused of, then the BJP is endorsing his views by giving him a ticket to contest elections.
Balbir Punj replied to the morality debate saying that BJP would distance itself from Varun Gandhi if he is proven guilty. However, he very clearly stated that at this point in time, looking at the way the investigations have been conducted, it is not right to ask questions for the future.
But one must admit that other political parties have given ticket to candidates who have been accused of murder and other crimes, which means the morality ground holds well to all the parties.
Abhishek Manu Singhvi said that BJP is just playing to the rhetoric and nothing more. He also justified the presence of accused leaders within the Congress stating that they were the sitting MPs and were legally viable to do as per law.
"They are given statutory protection under certain sections of the Constitution, they are sitting MPs," he said defensively.
The BJP and Congress are firm on their stands and going by what BJP said, this seems like a loss of face for the EC that the BJP just did not take its advice. However, Ashok Desai clarified the BJP's stand saying that this was just a recommendation by EC and not an order and the BJP was not bound to follow it.
He also said that both the political parties are at fault. He explained that when their party candidates are convicted or are accused, the parties file for a stay order instead of putting their candidature on hold and waiting for a clean chit.
He also explained that instances of hate speeches occur after filing nominations and that there should be measures to curb such actions before the nominations itself.
This is perhaps the problem that in the political tug-of-war during elections there are no laws to control hate speech. In the end, Desai concluded the debate by saying that perhaps India now needed some political amendments.
Varun Gandhi does not know his Hinduism, says cousin Priyanka Gandhi, in a first time Gandhi family attack on Varun's alleged communal speech. But while his cousin was unsparing in her attack, Varun found support too. The BJP on Monday came out strongly against the Election Commission (EC) for advising the party not to give Varun a ticket. The BJP questioned the EC's jurisdiction in advising parties on their candidates. The BJP said it stands firmly united behind Varun and that he is their candidate from Pilibhit.
The question that was being asked on CNN-IBN's show Face the Elections was: Should BJP deny Varun Gandhi a ticket to contest elections?
On the panel of experts were MP and Congress Spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi; Rajya Sabha MP and BJP Spokesperson Balbir Punj and senior lawyer Ashok H Desai.
SMS polls at the beginning of the show stood at 62 per cent saying 'Yes' and 38 per cent saying 'No'.
THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE CD
The BJP's aggressive stand appears like an attack on the EC. The EC has advised BJP not to let the candidate contest and this advice carries an enormous amount of weight. There is an argument, therefore, that the BJP should respect the EC's advice.
Balbir Punj started the debate by replying to the above statement. He said that the EC has taken an unprecedented step by advising the BJP not to allow a particular candidate from contesting the Pilibhit seat. "The EC did not give a chance to the accused to come and clarify, it decided by itself in three days. This is not the right way to do things," he said.
The EC perhaps took an unprecedented step because Varun's speech was shocking, and no one before has ever made statements like Varun did.
An article recently stated: "Varun Gandhi has used the language that is so appalling, so violent, so vicious that even a most hardened communalist would blush". Therefore, observers feel the EC was justified in taking such quick steps and in such a scenario, the BJP should be fighting against the alleged hate speech and not against EC.
Balbir Punj said that EC's methodology for accusing Varun is unknown. "Varun Gandhi has repeatedly said that the CD which has been shown on TV channels definitely has his face but it doesn't have his voice," he stated. He emphasised that the investigation was done in three days without any technical assistance to analyse the CD.
If Balbir Punj's point is considered, it appears that that EC has over-stepped its brief and is guilty of interfering in the democratic process.
At this point, Ashok Desai joined the debate and said that the EC very clearly stated that it knows its limitations. "They are conscious of the code of conduct, but this speech diminishes a large number of our fellow citizens. In such a case if the EC is alerting people that such speeches are dangerous, it is nothing unusual," he firmly said. "Varun Gandhi may not only sink himself but also his party," he added.
This, however, is ironical that someone violating the Constitution - if elected - will have to swear on the same Constitution and uphold its values. And if the BJP does not take any stern measure, it could lead to a disaster in the future, giving any politician the right to say anything in the future.
Balbir Punj chipped in saying that Varun Gandhi is only an accused and not guilty and therefore one should not pass judgment against him at this stage.
However, looking at the contents of the CD, nobody would say that it is morphed. BJP is only trying to ignore the matter and not admit that it needs to control the hate speech that emanates from its party. But Balbir Punj was adamant, stating that the BJP was not shying away from the subject. The party, he said, was simply unclear on the authenticity of the source itself.
For those who wanted to know whether the Congress thought in the same way as the BJP - that the EC should have spent more time on analysing the credibility of the CD rather than jumping on to conclusions - Abhishek Manu Singhvi had an answer. He said, "BJP's animosity and non-secular attitude does not even deserve to be projected in national programs. It is too petty and deserves to be ignored."
He added that the more the BJP is advising, the more it is getting into exposing itself. "The EC has itself said that it is just sounding an advisory. The BJP is shamelessly supporting Varun Gandhi. Even a blind man can identify the truth in the CD," he said.
THE MORAL DEBATE
This statement of Singhvi's raised questions on the BJP's morality, its conscience and the politics that the BJP is playing. Assuming that Varun Gandhi has actually said what he has been accused of, then the BJP is endorsing his views by giving him a ticket to contest elections.
Balbir Punj replied to the morality debate saying that BJP would distance itself from Varun Gandhi if he is proven guilty. However, he very clearly stated that at this point in time, looking at the way the investigations have been conducted, it is not right to ask questions for the future.
But one must admit that other political parties have given ticket to candidates who have been accused of murder and other crimes, which means the morality ground holds well to all the parties.
Abhishek Manu Singhvi said that BJP is just playing to the rhetoric and nothing more. He also justified the presence of accused leaders within the Congress stating that they were the sitting MPs and were legally viable to do as per law.
"They are given statutory protection under certain sections of the Constitution, they are sitting MPs," he said defensively.
The BJP and Congress are firm on their stands and going by what BJP said, this seems like a loss of face for the EC that the BJP just did not take its advice. However, Ashok Desai clarified the BJP's stand saying that this was just a recommendation by EC and not an order and the BJP was not bound to follow it.
He also said that both the political parties are at fault. He explained that when their party candidates are convicted or are accused, the parties file for a stay order instead of putting their candidature on hold and waiting for a clean chit.
He also explained that instances of hate speeches occur after filing nominations and that there should be measures to curb such actions before the nominations itself.
This is perhaps the problem that in the political tug-of-war during elections there are no laws to control hate speech. In the end, Desai concluded the debate by saying that perhaps India now needed some political amendments.
India: Perils of a Fragmented Poll Verdict
By M H Ahssan
Electoral predictions are an imperfect science, yet most poll pundits are predicting a fragmented verdict on 16 May 2009, when results of general elections to the Worlds largest democracy are declared by Mr. Navin Chawla the Chief Election Commissioner then. The perils of a fragmented verdict however have not been examined in depth so far, for the scenarios could well be scary to say the least.
On the larger plane this would set back the coalition experiment in India which has been successful in providing stability to the central polity in the country for the past decade after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 1999 followed by the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress in 2004.
Despite their many imperfections of these alliances succeeded in completing a full term. On the other hand witness what happened before when the National Front a coalition of political parties, led by the Janata Dal between 1989 and 1991 with the late Mr V P Singh as the Prime Minister, survived purely on the good will of its supporting parties and collapsed under its own weight.
The next time a fragmented verdict led to a front coming to power was the United Front which formed India's government between 1996 and 1998. Here again it lasted as long as the previous experiment.
The principal lesson from history therefore is that while in 1999 and 2004 the alliance was based on a single party, the BJP and the Congress respectively acting as a unifying force, the other coalitions failed to last because either their core party was weak or even worse they did not have a core at all.
In 2009, a similar situation seems to be emerging. So let us see the latest poll survey, by Nielsen and Star News quoted in the Indian media on 23 March 2009. The Congress and the BJP between then are predicted to be getting 281 seats with a difference of 7 seats for the Congress in the lead. The Third Front comprising of a mixed group would get 96, which leaves a large number of seats, 164 to the smaller parties of varying hues led by the Samajwadi Party in UP at 30 and the DMK at Tamil Nadu at 24 followed by many others with a history of volatile relations in a coalition such as Ms Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress expected to get 13 seats.
The other dangerous part of the survey indicates a close call between the Congress and the BJP in the general elections with a difference in the seats of less than 10 would imply that this would increase the possibilities of post poll alliance which are not predictable at present.
Thus many parties from the block of 164 seats as well as the Third Front block of 100 seats would have a potential to switch to either the NDA or the UPA and the Third Front. Parties as the RJD of Mr Laloo Prasad have possibly been preparing for just such a switch. The large number of floaters also creates possibilities for the Third Front. If the Front crosses the magic figure of 100, it would certainly be hoping to cobble together a government, with outside support of parties as the Congress. Thus the post poll formulations continue to be dynamic.
Mr Karat, General Secretary of the CPM has also expressed possibility of the Third Front coming to power with the support of the Congress. On the other hand there is also a statement by him that the Left Front could support a Congress led government as it was done in 2004, thereby it is obvious that the Left Front is keeping its options open.
The delay in nominating a candidate for the post of Prime Minster is one of the issues which highlights that parties want to keep their options open for making alliances once the arithmetic is clear after the results are declared. This is particularly true of the Third Front, for as it will from an alliance of a number of parties with major regional leaders, each having only 20 to 30 seats, by projecting a single candidate at this stage, they would desist other big leaders to join them, thus a post poll PM candidate most suits the Third Front.
But coming back to our original hypothesis of instability devoid of a single large core party in a coalition, the other unifying factor in 1999 and in 2004 have been the Prime ministers. Mr A B Vajpayee and Mr Manmohan Singh were both highly respected figures and could inspire other parties and leaders to stay on with the coalition. The same sadly cannot be said about the Prime Ministerial aspirants today ranging from Ms Mayawati to Ms Jayalalitha, Sharad Pawar and Laloo Yadav.
An extreme scenario of a government comprising of a number of parties with the largest party having around 30 plus seats and a prime minister with a giant size ego as Ms Mayawati would lead the country towards instability. Hopefully the Indian electorate is sensible enough to recognize the perils of such a verdict and facilitates a coalition that will work.
Electoral predictions are an imperfect science, yet most poll pundits are predicting a fragmented verdict on 16 May 2009, when results of general elections to the Worlds largest democracy are declared by Mr. Navin Chawla the Chief Election Commissioner then. The perils of a fragmented verdict however have not been examined in depth so far, for the scenarios could well be scary to say the least.
On the larger plane this would set back the coalition experiment in India which has been successful in providing stability to the central polity in the country for the past decade after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 1999 followed by the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress in 2004.
Despite their many imperfections of these alliances succeeded in completing a full term. On the other hand witness what happened before when the National Front a coalition of political parties, led by the Janata Dal between 1989 and 1991 with the late Mr V P Singh as the Prime Minister, survived purely on the good will of its supporting parties and collapsed under its own weight.
The next time a fragmented verdict led to a front coming to power was the United Front which formed India's government between 1996 and 1998. Here again it lasted as long as the previous experiment.
The principal lesson from history therefore is that while in 1999 and 2004 the alliance was based on a single party, the BJP and the Congress respectively acting as a unifying force, the other coalitions failed to last because either their core party was weak or even worse they did not have a core at all.
In 2009, a similar situation seems to be emerging. So let us see the latest poll survey, by Nielsen and Star News quoted in the Indian media on 23 March 2009. The Congress and the BJP between then are predicted to be getting 281 seats with a difference of 7 seats for the Congress in the lead. The Third Front comprising of a mixed group would get 96, which leaves a large number of seats, 164 to the smaller parties of varying hues led by the Samajwadi Party in UP at 30 and the DMK at Tamil Nadu at 24 followed by many others with a history of volatile relations in a coalition such as Ms Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress expected to get 13 seats.
The other dangerous part of the survey indicates a close call between the Congress and the BJP in the general elections with a difference in the seats of less than 10 would imply that this would increase the possibilities of post poll alliance which are not predictable at present.
Thus many parties from the block of 164 seats as well as the Third Front block of 100 seats would have a potential to switch to either the NDA or the UPA and the Third Front. Parties as the RJD of Mr Laloo Prasad have possibly been preparing for just such a switch. The large number of floaters also creates possibilities for the Third Front. If the Front crosses the magic figure of 100, it would certainly be hoping to cobble together a government, with outside support of parties as the Congress. Thus the post poll formulations continue to be dynamic.
Mr Karat, General Secretary of the CPM has also expressed possibility of the Third Front coming to power with the support of the Congress. On the other hand there is also a statement by him that the Left Front could support a Congress led government as it was done in 2004, thereby it is obvious that the Left Front is keeping its options open.
The delay in nominating a candidate for the post of Prime Minster is one of the issues which highlights that parties want to keep their options open for making alliances once the arithmetic is clear after the results are declared. This is particularly true of the Third Front, for as it will from an alliance of a number of parties with major regional leaders, each having only 20 to 30 seats, by projecting a single candidate at this stage, they would desist other big leaders to join them, thus a post poll PM candidate most suits the Third Front.
But coming back to our original hypothesis of instability devoid of a single large core party in a coalition, the other unifying factor in 1999 and in 2004 have been the Prime ministers. Mr A B Vajpayee and Mr Manmohan Singh were both highly respected figures and could inspire other parties and leaders to stay on with the coalition. The same sadly cannot be said about the Prime Ministerial aspirants today ranging from Ms Mayawati to Ms Jayalalitha, Sharad Pawar and Laloo Yadav.
An extreme scenario of a government comprising of a number of parties with the largest party having around 30 plus seats and a prime minister with a giant size ego as Ms Mayawati would lead the country towards instability. Hopefully the Indian electorate is sensible enough to recognize the perils of such a verdict and facilitates a coalition that will work.
Who Will Become PM?
By M H Ahssan
This is for all you dummies who will perform your duty as conscientious citizens and vote. For whom will you vote? You may as most people treat this general election as a municipal poll and vote for the candidate most likely to help your son get admission, or get the authorities to remove jhuggis behind your house. If as a serious voter you are concerned with national policy, forget it. Politicians themselves have given up all pretence about concern with policy. Even poor Prakash Karat after vain attempts to forge a Common Minimum Programme has been reduced instead to preparing a Vision Document.
If policy is not the issue, what is? Well, there will be an election and there will be a future Prime Minister. So why not vote for the best PM? In the absence of policy how might you make a choice? Well, think about the qualities of leadership. Obviously one who shows such qualities best deserves a chance. The most basic quality of leadership is his or her ability to protect the interests of followers. On this criterion who is best?
Certainly not Dr Manmohan Singh! He doesn’t want followers. He is content to remain a follower himself of Sonia Gandhi.
Certainly not LK Advani! The Rajnath-Jaitley spat thoroughly exposed him. It is inconceivable that Sidanshu Mittal could have been appointed to oversee the Northeast states without Advani’s consent. When Jaitley objected, Advani did not defend Mittal. When Rajnath Singh refused to oblige Jaitley, Advani did not defend Jaitley. He could neither promote nor defend any follower. What kind of leadership is that?
Certainly not Mayawati! She dumped her loyalists to give election tickets to newcomers who joined her weeks ago. She used her followers to collect money on her behalf and failed to protect them when they were caught. There was no question of course of her sharing any money with her followers.
Certainly not Sharad Pawar! Look how he betrayed his senior party colleague, P Sangma! He agreed that the Congress dismissed the Meghalaya government unconstitutionally. Yet he refused to back Sangma against the Congress in order to further his interests in his own home state.
Certainly not Laloo Yadav! He promoted his wife as Chief Minister. He refused to promote her protesting brother who joined Congress. Or is it that Sadhu Yadav joined Congress with Laloo’s secret blessing? Remember, all the Laloo dissidents who have joined the Congress will cut the votes of his newfound ally, Ram Vilas Paswan. So either Laloo is betraying his followers or conspiring against his ally. Is he fit to lead?
Certainly not Navin Patnaik! With hopes of becoming PM supported by the CPI-M he scrapped his decades old alliance with the NDA. Without batting an eye he endorsed all the policies of the CPI-M which he had opposed throughout his political career.
Certainly not Nitish Kumar! He refused to accommodate his former leader George Fernandes who as a sitting MP wanted to contest. What kind of loyalty is that?
Certainly not Jayalalithaa! For five years she abused Congress. She then attempted to team up with Congress to isolate Karunanidhi. After that failed she went to the Third Front. Meanwhile Karat promoted Mayawati. Jayalalithaa refused to attend Mayawati’s dinner. Now she is edging away from the Third Front. Can a leader who does not know where to stand help the nation take a stand…?
Enough! There’s no point criticizing all the hopefuls for the top job. Some new dark horse could spring a surprise. The prevalent political culture and confusion are stoking ambition in unexpected places. Anything can happen. The Malegaon blast accused Dayanand Pandey from prison has sought the court’s permission to contest the Lok Sabha poll. He favours a seat in Jammu. He could join another Malegaon blast accused, Major Ramesh Upadhyay, who earlier had sought similar permission to contest. With their rich experience in transnational affairs and explosive politics could they bring peace between India and the ISI…?
For the present, isn’t it best to keep an open mind about the next PM?
This is for all you dummies who will perform your duty as conscientious citizens and vote. For whom will you vote? You may as most people treat this general election as a municipal poll and vote for the candidate most likely to help your son get admission, or get the authorities to remove jhuggis behind your house. If as a serious voter you are concerned with national policy, forget it. Politicians themselves have given up all pretence about concern with policy. Even poor Prakash Karat after vain attempts to forge a Common Minimum Programme has been reduced instead to preparing a Vision Document.
If policy is not the issue, what is? Well, there will be an election and there will be a future Prime Minister. So why not vote for the best PM? In the absence of policy how might you make a choice? Well, think about the qualities of leadership. Obviously one who shows such qualities best deserves a chance. The most basic quality of leadership is his or her ability to protect the interests of followers. On this criterion who is best?
Certainly not Dr Manmohan Singh! He doesn’t want followers. He is content to remain a follower himself of Sonia Gandhi.
Certainly not LK Advani! The Rajnath-Jaitley spat thoroughly exposed him. It is inconceivable that Sidanshu Mittal could have been appointed to oversee the Northeast states without Advani’s consent. When Jaitley objected, Advani did not defend Mittal. When Rajnath Singh refused to oblige Jaitley, Advani did not defend Jaitley. He could neither promote nor defend any follower. What kind of leadership is that?
Certainly not Mayawati! She dumped her loyalists to give election tickets to newcomers who joined her weeks ago. She used her followers to collect money on her behalf and failed to protect them when they were caught. There was no question of course of her sharing any money with her followers.
Certainly not Sharad Pawar! Look how he betrayed his senior party colleague, P Sangma! He agreed that the Congress dismissed the Meghalaya government unconstitutionally. Yet he refused to back Sangma against the Congress in order to further his interests in his own home state.
Certainly not Laloo Yadav! He promoted his wife as Chief Minister. He refused to promote her protesting brother who joined Congress. Or is it that Sadhu Yadav joined Congress with Laloo’s secret blessing? Remember, all the Laloo dissidents who have joined the Congress will cut the votes of his newfound ally, Ram Vilas Paswan. So either Laloo is betraying his followers or conspiring against his ally. Is he fit to lead?
Certainly not Navin Patnaik! With hopes of becoming PM supported by the CPI-M he scrapped his decades old alliance with the NDA. Without batting an eye he endorsed all the policies of the CPI-M which he had opposed throughout his political career.
Certainly not Nitish Kumar! He refused to accommodate his former leader George Fernandes who as a sitting MP wanted to contest. What kind of loyalty is that?
Certainly not Jayalalithaa! For five years she abused Congress. She then attempted to team up with Congress to isolate Karunanidhi. After that failed she went to the Third Front. Meanwhile Karat promoted Mayawati. Jayalalithaa refused to attend Mayawati’s dinner. Now she is edging away from the Third Front. Can a leader who does not know where to stand help the nation take a stand…?
Enough! There’s no point criticizing all the hopefuls for the top job. Some new dark horse could spring a surprise. The prevalent political culture and confusion are stoking ambition in unexpected places. Anything can happen. The Malegaon blast accused Dayanand Pandey from prison has sought the court’s permission to contest the Lok Sabha poll. He favours a seat in Jammu. He could join another Malegaon blast accused, Major Ramesh Upadhyay, who earlier had sought similar permission to contest. With their rich experience in transnational affairs and explosive politics could they bring peace between India and the ISI…?
For the present, isn’t it best to keep an open mind about the next PM?
What's eating at Kolkata's Chinatown?
By M H Ahssan
Chinese red lanterns are dimming in Kolkata's Tangra Chinatown, even as a new India-China rescue effort jointly plans a makeover to add Tangra to the list of famous Chinese communities in San Francisco, New York, Bangkok, Sydney, Toronto and London.
In fact, the February 2009 plans of the West Bengal state tourism board in Kolkata, eastern India, and its counterpart in Kunming, in Yunnan province, southeast China, have not reached many ears in Tangra yet.
"Everyone is going," said elderly caretaker Birasdutt near a faded sign announcing "Chinese Tannery Owners Association" in Tangra.
For the past 25 years, many residents of Birasdutt's vanishing world have referred to their Chinese bosses relocating their lives, leaving behind questions of the future of South Asia's largest Chinatown.
Dhoti-clad Birasdutt sits in front of a stretch of tumbledown buildings with red-tiled roofs. He faces a patch of greenery dominated by an ancient, dusty Banyan tree looking bare and unhealthy, like a balding patient done in from decades of inhaling the toxic fumes of Tangra's leather tanneries.
According to the new Indo-Chinese plans, Tangra will have tourist attractions including two major gateways to its west near Christopher Road and in the south from Park Circus. The gateways will comprise two heavily ornamental Chinese pagodas built by artisans and designers from China.
If the two tourism boards use obvious potential, India's new version of the old Tangra Chinatown could rank among the closest cultural ties between the two neighbors - both ancient civilizations and 21st century economic giants.
For the past 50 of Kolkata's 300-year history, Tangra has hosted South Asia's largest concentration of Chinese restaurants, Chinese-owned leather factories, as well as the Hakka people, a conservative ethnic community tracing its origins to the Han ethnic group, said to be China's earliest settlers.
The restless Hakka Chinese have been migrating for over 2,000 years, from the Yellow River regions of northern China to the southern regions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The Hakka, which means "guests", have migrated out of China, including to Kolkata and India, since the 18th century.
Young Atchew arrived in 1780 as the first known Chinese migrant to Kolkata. Atchew died three years later - heartbroken, according to legend, after a business failure - but not before opening India's gateway to thousands of migrating Chinese.
More Chinese refugees fled to India after Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution of the mid-1960s, joining the Tibetan refugees fleeing from the Chinese invasion of their homeland.
Despite the exodus, India's Chinese population found themselves marginalized following the 1962 India-China war. The Chinese Embassy in Kolkata was closed and reopened only last year.
"The Chinese in India kept a low profile since they faced problems over Indian citizenship," said Ajoy John, a senior media professional and Kolkata resident for over 35 years. "Only recently have they been coming out more into the open, such as the Chinese food festival in Kolkata earlier this year [in January] that the Chinese government organized to celebrate the Chinese New Year."
Today, it is difficult to detect any celebratory airs in Tangra. The long, winding road from Kolkata's mid-town Park Circus quickly dissolves into a narrow river of greyish red, unpainted walls of houses and leather factories that wear a gloomy, derelict air even in the bright sunshine of midday in March.
Still, bright splashes of deep red oddly punctuate this grey world - red gates, red billboards, red Chinese letters on Tangra's grey cement walls, red lanterns, red ribbons and red restaurant signs. Red pictures of Tsai Shen Ye, the Chinese god of wealth, hang from entrances and cash boxes. The rich Chinatown red contrasts with drab unpainted walls, looking as remarkable as giant grey donkeys with red noses.
"It's not like the old days when 15 people used to be sitting here at a time, with a lot of life, chatter, activity and people coming and going all day," said Birasdutt, remembering the glory days in his deserted compound of the Chinese Tannery Owners' Association. "Now, when the shops are shut, even the road in front is deserted."
The emptying of Tangra was largely due to a Supreme Court order to control pollution from Kolkata's tanneries. As a result, 250 of the 538 tanneries in the Tangra, Topsia and Tiljala regions shifted to Bantala near Kolkata's Science City in 2002, and incorporated into the 486-hectare Calcutta Leather Complex - called the world's largest integrated leather facility.
Many Tangra tanneries were born again as restaurants, adding to the estimated 50 Chinese eateries in the area. Birasdutt's Chinese Tannery Owners' Association is also home to India's only Chinese-language daily newspaper.
Between 8.30am and 11.30am each day, 65-year-old editor and publisher K T Cheng, accompanied with two Chinese colleagues, dutifully marches in to produce the Overseas Chinese and Commerce of India.
Their four-page broadsheet carries news from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in large Chinese script sometimes interrupted with English job vacancy ads and social announcements. The March 15 edition, for instance, declares the matrimonial engagement of Mr Teng Shin Mein with Miss Wu Pu Liu in Hyderabad.
"We print only about 180 copies daily," Cheng told Asia Times Online. "But this newspaper is a primary form of connection between the entire Chinese community in India, many of whom are migrating to Canada, Europe, Hong Kong and Korea."
Cheng, who had a long career in a Tangra tannery, now works out of a large, murky room with ancient tables, a tall grandfather clock and framed photographs of Mahatma Gandhi and Sun Zhongshan, more well-known as Sun Yat-Sen, the respective founders of modern India and China.
The 40-year-old Chinese newspaper also finds its way to the Big Boss, perhaps the largest Chinese restaurant in Kolkata, India and South Asia. "We can seat 800 at a time," said Nobby Edwards, an Anglo-Indian waiter in Big Boss. "We have waiting queues over the weekends."
The sprawling Big Boss was once a tannery. It now represents the entrepreneurial spirit of local Chinese, many of whom have made the best of changing circumstances. "I have never seen any community as hardworking as the Chinese here," he said. "I don't know when my boss sleeps."
Yet a sleepy, languid air cloaks the long, winding road through Tangra.
Not many signs of life appear even near the famous Sing Cheung Sauce factory with its closed, formidable iron gates giving more the appearance of a prison than a 54-year-old manufacturer of pungent condiments.
Chinese food, usually sold bathed in such sauces, keeps Tangra alive. Chinese names abound here with an intensity unlike anywhere else in India. The Kim Pau and Kim Ling restaurants stand near the Chungwah cemetery, just beyond China Pearl, China Gate, Hot Wok Village and Shun-Li eateries.
"Nothing much has changed in Tangra in my lifetime," said Mathew Cheng, owner of the Shun-Li. "My family is fourth-generation Chinese born and brought up in India."
Cheng has an Indian passport, a document that was tough for Chinese residents in India to own even two decades ago. He visits China frequently, he says, during the course of which he first met Xiao Cheng, who became his wife Cheng Xiao Cheng.
According to Cheng, about 15,000 Chinese once lived in Tangra and Kolkata. But that number has dwindled so much in recent times that even 5,000 now seems an optimistic estimate. The survivors largely stick to the leather and food industries.
There is little doubt, however, that Chinese food has become Kolkata's favorite street food, more so than in any other Indian city. Almost every Kolkata cafe, including pushcart vendors, serve various and remarkable versions of noodles, called chow mein, and fried rice. An ample plateful costs US$0.25.
Further away from Cheng's Shun-Li, is Zhong Hua restaurant. The manager explains that the "owner is in Beijing", and adds helpfully, "If you go now, you can meet her there, sir." Beijing, of course, turns out to be another restaurant in Tangra Chinatown.
Nearly as big as a basketball court, Beijing has tables set more spaciously apart than its competitor Big Boss. "More Chinese in China want to come and settle down in India," said owner Monica Liu, defying the dire predictions for her dwindling community in Kolkata. "But they don't know how to apply."
Liu, a sharp-eyed, self-made businesswoman who says her working day starts at 5.30am and ends at midnight, was born in Kolkata after her parents migrated from Guangdong. "I speak Hakka, Cantonese, Mandarin, but when I go to China, the Chinese there know I am Chinese but not from China," she said. "We speak differently, dress differently and think differently than the Chinese in China."
Liu says the Tangra community is more conservative in outlook than the orthodox Hakka Chinese in China. "We will be opposed to our young people marrying Indians, for instance," she said, yet emphasizing she has always considered the country of her birth, India, as her home country, not China. "We are a minority community in India, and we have to preserve our identity."
Overseas Chinese and Tibetans in India share this generational struggle to protect cultural character, with the Tibetan version playing out in New Delhi, 1,400 kilometers away. While many Indian-born Tibetans say they wish to return to Tibet should China grant freedom to the province, few Chinese born in India intend to return to mainland China.
The intertwined India-China roots of Tangra Chinatown get more culturally entangled with each passing generation. Liu's two-year-old granddaughter shyly whispers to me that her name is "Preity Zinta", the name of a popular Indian actress, much to the mirth of all around. "Her name Jia Ye means 'pretty' in Chinese," laughed Liu. "But she tells everyone she is 'Preity Zinta'."
But the Bollywood-loving toddler won't be going to the local Chinese school in Tangra, the only one of its kind in India. Instead, Jia Ye will join her brother in La Martiniere, one of Kolkata's well-known English medium schools.
Liu's nephew, 25-year-old Thomas Hsu, said he was born and brought up in Kolkata and is happy to live here. His aunt, however, sternly insists he might disappear any day to join his brothers in Canada.
The remaining Tangra Chinese have set the China-India melting pot boiling. There is even a temple in Tangra called the "Chinese Kali Temple", perhaps the only Chinese temple named after the Hindu goddess in the world.
Inside the little temple's bright red gates are two idols of Kali next to the blue-colored idol of Shiva, the god who destroys evil.
Under the Chinese Kali Temple entrance sits Dilip Chakraborty selling guavas out of a cane basket for three and four rupees a fruit. "Tangra is in decline and I have been here for over 20 years," he said. "Many of the Chinese business are shutting down one by one, and people are going away."
Other Tangra Chinatown residents share Chakraborty's gloom, never mind development dreams being hatched in Indo-China tourism ministries. "Neither the state government, nor the Calcutta Municipal Corporation, have ever done anything for us and we live in the same neglect today as we did five decades ago when I arrived here," 65-year old P L Chen complained on "Dhapa", the Kolkata Chinese community blog.
Chen, one of Tangra's leather merchants, said he came to Kolkata's Dum Dum airport as a 13-year-old, arriving from Hong Kong squeezed into a small, crowded propeller plane.
"Almost all of us came from the Meihsien district in the [former] state of Canton. It was an arduous bus ride from Meihsien to Guangzhou, from where we took the boat to Hong Kong," remembered Chen, who calls India home for the past 52 years.
India's Kolkata and China's Kunming tourism boards' grand plans to develop Tangra Chinatown can't come too soon for Chen and his fellow Chinese in India, a rare hybrid community embracing two of humanity's oldest and richest cultures.
Restaurant owner Liu, however, has greater ambitions. "I want to enter politics, and stand for elections," she said. "I'm in discussions with a political party."
The idea of India's parliament resounding with an elected Chinese member's rousing speeches in Mandarin might have bemused Mahatma Gandhi and Sun Yat-Sen, and it could yet be Tangra Chinatown's future gift to India.
Chinese red lanterns are dimming in Kolkata's Tangra Chinatown, even as a new India-China rescue effort jointly plans a makeover to add Tangra to the list of famous Chinese communities in San Francisco, New York, Bangkok, Sydney, Toronto and London.
In fact, the February 2009 plans of the West Bengal state tourism board in Kolkata, eastern India, and its counterpart in Kunming, in Yunnan province, southeast China, have not reached many ears in Tangra yet.
"Everyone is going," said elderly caretaker Birasdutt near a faded sign announcing "Chinese Tannery Owners Association" in Tangra.
For the past 25 years, many residents of Birasdutt's vanishing world have referred to their Chinese bosses relocating their lives, leaving behind questions of the future of South Asia's largest Chinatown.
Dhoti-clad Birasdutt sits in front of a stretch of tumbledown buildings with red-tiled roofs. He faces a patch of greenery dominated by an ancient, dusty Banyan tree looking bare and unhealthy, like a balding patient done in from decades of inhaling the toxic fumes of Tangra's leather tanneries.
According to the new Indo-Chinese plans, Tangra will have tourist attractions including two major gateways to its west near Christopher Road and in the south from Park Circus. The gateways will comprise two heavily ornamental Chinese pagodas built by artisans and designers from China.
If the two tourism boards use obvious potential, India's new version of the old Tangra Chinatown could rank among the closest cultural ties between the two neighbors - both ancient civilizations and 21st century economic giants.
For the past 50 of Kolkata's 300-year history, Tangra has hosted South Asia's largest concentration of Chinese restaurants, Chinese-owned leather factories, as well as the Hakka people, a conservative ethnic community tracing its origins to the Han ethnic group, said to be China's earliest settlers.
The restless Hakka Chinese have been migrating for over 2,000 years, from the Yellow River regions of northern China to the southern regions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The Hakka, which means "guests", have migrated out of China, including to Kolkata and India, since the 18th century.
Young Atchew arrived in 1780 as the first known Chinese migrant to Kolkata. Atchew died three years later - heartbroken, according to legend, after a business failure - but not before opening India's gateway to thousands of migrating Chinese.
More Chinese refugees fled to India after Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution of the mid-1960s, joining the Tibetan refugees fleeing from the Chinese invasion of their homeland.
Despite the exodus, India's Chinese population found themselves marginalized following the 1962 India-China war. The Chinese Embassy in Kolkata was closed and reopened only last year.
"The Chinese in India kept a low profile since they faced problems over Indian citizenship," said Ajoy John, a senior media professional and Kolkata resident for over 35 years. "Only recently have they been coming out more into the open, such as the Chinese food festival in Kolkata earlier this year [in January] that the Chinese government organized to celebrate the Chinese New Year."
Today, it is difficult to detect any celebratory airs in Tangra. The long, winding road from Kolkata's mid-town Park Circus quickly dissolves into a narrow river of greyish red, unpainted walls of houses and leather factories that wear a gloomy, derelict air even in the bright sunshine of midday in March.
Still, bright splashes of deep red oddly punctuate this grey world - red gates, red billboards, red Chinese letters on Tangra's grey cement walls, red lanterns, red ribbons and red restaurant signs. Red pictures of Tsai Shen Ye, the Chinese god of wealth, hang from entrances and cash boxes. The rich Chinatown red contrasts with drab unpainted walls, looking as remarkable as giant grey donkeys with red noses.
"It's not like the old days when 15 people used to be sitting here at a time, with a lot of life, chatter, activity and people coming and going all day," said Birasdutt, remembering the glory days in his deserted compound of the Chinese Tannery Owners' Association. "Now, when the shops are shut, even the road in front is deserted."
The emptying of Tangra was largely due to a Supreme Court order to control pollution from Kolkata's tanneries. As a result, 250 of the 538 tanneries in the Tangra, Topsia and Tiljala regions shifted to Bantala near Kolkata's Science City in 2002, and incorporated into the 486-hectare Calcutta Leather Complex - called the world's largest integrated leather facility.
Many Tangra tanneries were born again as restaurants, adding to the estimated 50 Chinese eateries in the area. Birasdutt's Chinese Tannery Owners' Association is also home to India's only Chinese-language daily newspaper.
Between 8.30am and 11.30am each day, 65-year-old editor and publisher K T Cheng, accompanied with two Chinese colleagues, dutifully marches in to produce the Overseas Chinese and Commerce of India.
Their four-page broadsheet carries news from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in large Chinese script sometimes interrupted with English job vacancy ads and social announcements. The March 15 edition, for instance, declares the matrimonial engagement of Mr Teng Shin Mein with Miss Wu Pu Liu in Hyderabad.
"We print only about 180 copies daily," Cheng told Asia Times Online. "But this newspaper is a primary form of connection between the entire Chinese community in India, many of whom are migrating to Canada, Europe, Hong Kong and Korea."
Cheng, who had a long career in a Tangra tannery, now works out of a large, murky room with ancient tables, a tall grandfather clock and framed photographs of Mahatma Gandhi and Sun Zhongshan, more well-known as Sun Yat-Sen, the respective founders of modern India and China.
The 40-year-old Chinese newspaper also finds its way to the Big Boss, perhaps the largest Chinese restaurant in Kolkata, India and South Asia. "We can seat 800 at a time," said Nobby Edwards, an Anglo-Indian waiter in Big Boss. "We have waiting queues over the weekends."
The sprawling Big Boss was once a tannery. It now represents the entrepreneurial spirit of local Chinese, many of whom have made the best of changing circumstances. "I have never seen any community as hardworking as the Chinese here," he said. "I don't know when my boss sleeps."
Yet a sleepy, languid air cloaks the long, winding road through Tangra.
Not many signs of life appear even near the famous Sing Cheung Sauce factory with its closed, formidable iron gates giving more the appearance of a prison than a 54-year-old manufacturer of pungent condiments.
Chinese food, usually sold bathed in such sauces, keeps Tangra alive. Chinese names abound here with an intensity unlike anywhere else in India. The Kim Pau and Kim Ling restaurants stand near the Chungwah cemetery, just beyond China Pearl, China Gate, Hot Wok Village and Shun-Li eateries.
"Nothing much has changed in Tangra in my lifetime," said Mathew Cheng, owner of the Shun-Li. "My family is fourth-generation Chinese born and brought up in India."
Cheng has an Indian passport, a document that was tough for Chinese residents in India to own even two decades ago. He visits China frequently, he says, during the course of which he first met Xiao Cheng, who became his wife Cheng Xiao Cheng.
According to Cheng, about 15,000 Chinese once lived in Tangra and Kolkata. But that number has dwindled so much in recent times that even 5,000 now seems an optimistic estimate. The survivors largely stick to the leather and food industries.
There is little doubt, however, that Chinese food has become Kolkata's favorite street food, more so than in any other Indian city. Almost every Kolkata cafe, including pushcart vendors, serve various and remarkable versions of noodles, called chow mein, and fried rice. An ample plateful costs US$0.25.
Further away from Cheng's Shun-Li, is Zhong Hua restaurant. The manager explains that the "owner is in Beijing", and adds helpfully, "If you go now, you can meet her there, sir." Beijing, of course, turns out to be another restaurant in Tangra Chinatown.
Nearly as big as a basketball court, Beijing has tables set more spaciously apart than its competitor Big Boss. "More Chinese in China want to come and settle down in India," said owner Monica Liu, defying the dire predictions for her dwindling community in Kolkata. "But they don't know how to apply."
Liu, a sharp-eyed, self-made businesswoman who says her working day starts at 5.30am and ends at midnight, was born in Kolkata after her parents migrated from Guangdong. "I speak Hakka, Cantonese, Mandarin, but when I go to China, the Chinese there know I am Chinese but not from China," she said. "We speak differently, dress differently and think differently than the Chinese in China."
Liu says the Tangra community is more conservative in outlook than the orthodox Hakka Chinese in China. "We will be opposed to our young people marrying Indians, for instance," she said, yet emphasizing she has always considered the country of her birth, India, as her home country, not China. "We are a minority community in India, and we have to preserve our identity."
Overseas Chinese and Tibetans in India share this generational struggle to protect cultural character, with the Tibetan version playing out in New Delhi, 1,400 kilometers away. While many Indian-born Tibetans say they wish to return to Tibet should China grant freedom to the province, few Chinese born in India intend to return to mainland China.
The intertwined India-China roots of Tangra Chinatown get more culturally entangled with each passing generation. Liu's two-year-old granddaughter shyly whispers to me that her name is "Preity Zinta", the name of a popular Indian actress, much to the mirth of all around. "Her name Jia Ye means 'pretty' in Chinese," laughed Liu. "But she tells everyone she is 'Preity Zinta'."
But the Bollywood-loving toddler won't be going to the local Chinese school in Tangra, the only one of its kind in India. Instead, Jia Ye will join her brother in La Martiniere, one of Kolkata's well-known English medium schools.
Liu's nephew, 25-year-old Thomas Hsu, said he was born and brought up in Kolkata and is happy to live here. His aunt, however, sternly insists he might disappear any day to join his brothers in Canada.
The remaining Tangra Chinese have set the China-India melting pot boiling. There is even a temple in Tangra called the "Chinese Kali Temple", perhaps the only Chinese temple named after the Hindu goddess in the world.
Inside the little temple's bright red gates are two idols of Kali next to the blue-colored idol of Shiva, the god who destroys evil.
Under the Chinese Kali Temple entrance sits Dilip Chakraborty selling guavas out of a cane basket for three and four rupees a fruit. "Tangra is in decline and I have been here for over 20 years," he said. "Many of the Chinese business are shutting down one by one, and people are going away."
Other Tangra Chinatown residents share Chakraborty's gloom, never mind development dreams being hatched in Indo-China tourism ministries. "Neither the state government, nor the Calcutta Municipal Corporation, have ever done anything for us and we live in the same neglect today as we did five decades ago when I arrived here," 65-year old P L Chen complained on "Dhapa", the Kolkata Chinese community blog.
Chen, one of Tangra's leather merchants, said he came to Kolkata's Dum Dum airport as a 13-year-old, arriving from Hong Kong squeezed into a small, crowded propeller plane.
"Almost all of us came from the Meihsien district in the [former] state of Canton. It was an arduous bus ride from Meihsien to Guangzhou, from where we took the boat to Hong Kong," remembered Chen, who calls India home for the past 52 years.
India's Kolkata and China's Kunming tourism boards' grand plans to develop Tangra Chinatown can't come too soon for Chen and his fellow Chinese in India, a rare hybrid community embracing two of humanity's oldest and richest cultures.
Restaurant owner Liu, however, has greater ambitions. "I want to enter politics, and stand for elections," she said. "I'm in discussions with a political party."
The idea of India's parliament resounding with an elected Chinese member's rousing speeches in Mandarin might have bemused Mahatma Gandhi and Sun Yat-Sen, and it could yet be Tangra Chinatown's future gift to India.
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