India intelligence agencies are worried about the peace deal between the Taliban and the Pakistani Government in the Swat Valley.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) believes that it needs to convince the West that a Talibanised Pakistan with nuclear weapons would be a huge threat to the world.
On February 1, almost two weeks before the imposition of the Sharia law and the truce between the Taliban and Pakistani forces came into effect, National Security Advisor MK Narayanan has said that India was concerned about the stability of Pakistan
"As far as India is concerned as much as that we don't allow our neighbour to go under forces which will definitely be much more inimicable to India than the civilian government there," Narayanan had said.
But those words conceal a mountain of worries. India's intelligence establishment has no doubt that a Taliban takeover will inspire and encourage like-minded groups within India.
They will find safe haven and sanctuaries in Pakistan, the intensity and sophistication of terror strikes will increase and communal polarisation will grow.
So how does India measure up to the challenge of a Talibanised Pakistan?
The most obvious would involve beefing up the armed forces, upgrading counter-terror capabilities and tightening internal security.
But pre-emptive strikes of some kind or even armed conflict are seen as a risky alternative for India.
"The option for India would be either to sit back and wait for this Talibanisation to slowly creep towards us or to go to Afghanistan and help fight it," says Former MEA secretary KC Singh.
The thinking in South Block is that India needs to convince the West that a Talibanised Pakistan is a threat to the world.
Pakistan has nuclear weapons, has expertise in chemical and biological warfare and could be dangerously appealing to a Muslim diaspora in the West that has been under pressure since 9/11.
"That is the big danger and is the big threat which causes panic in the capitals of all western countries because they all believe that if there is a dirty bomb or a nuclear bomb exploded by a terrorist, the source would be Pakistan," former R&AW chief Anand Kumar Verma says.
Intelligence experts believe the West knows and understands the danger.
The US missile strikes in Pakistan's tribal territories is a small-scale war that has taken a heavy toll on Taliban capabilities.
Alongside, Indian diplomats say, the US should bring in key Pakistan allies like China and Saudi Arabia to stabilise and bring peace to Pakistan.
But in the event the Taliban are seen to be moving in on Islamabad or there is a danger of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into their hands. America's mini war in the tribal territories could escalate into a full-scale war with uncertain consequences.
Sharia imposed, peace returns to Pak's Swat Valley
The beautiful Swat Valley, also known as the Switzerland of Pakistan, is now under the control of Taliban. For the past many years, it has been the scene of fierce battle between the Taliban and Pakistani forces.
Following the imposition of Sharia law and the peace deal, guns have finally fallen silent in the region.
Cheerful voices have replaced the gunfire and laughter has replaced cries but not without a mix of ground realities.
The Pakistan government signed a truce with the Taliban and local hardliners accepting imposition of the Islamic law in an attempt to curb terror in the Swat Valley.
While the world has been sceptical of the deal, residents are rejoicing as children can now go back to schools, vehicles are back on the roads and the markets abuzz with activity.
"We are very happy with the accord between the TSNM and the government," a resident of the region says.
Even as critics have warned of repercussions, the Pakistan Government made it clear that the deal was reached keeping in mind the interests of the people of the Swat valley region.
Now people are seen crowding streets and markets without fear. Mingora witnessed open markets till late evening almost after one and a half year.
Traders, too, are happy with the boom at the local markets...
"Now that the curfew has been lifted our business will definitely do well. We are very happy," says a trader.
People staying in relief camps are now returning back to their homes in the Swat Valley.
Residents are also hoping that peace persists for a long time to come.
But though the truce may have brought temporary peace to the area, with a thriving arms market and lawless society, will peace just be a pause in the long history of violence in this north western region of Pakistan is left for time to tell?
Meanwhile, Chairman of Pakistan National Security Committee Raza Rabbani says he supports the truce in the Swat Valley
"Our ruling elite must come to terms with the truth that what we consider to be our Western values cannot hold grounds all the time. You have to mix values with ground realities and give it a touch which is Pakistani," says Rabbani.
