Wednesday, February 11, 2009
India 2009 Elections - Information
The India Election 2009 will be contested on new constituency boundaries for the first time in over 30 years and the change was implemented on the findings of the Delimitation Commission.
Some of the major changes include merging of areas of various constituencies to eradicate population inconsistencies between different seats and reservation and de-reservation of seats. But, for the time being, the Government of India has postponed delimitation in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Manipur and Nagaland.
The National Democratic Alliance comprising the BJP and its allies officially elected L. K. Advani as their candidate for Prime Ministership for general election 2009 on January 23rd, 2008.
The Indian National Congress (INC) and its allies though haven�t officially announced their candidate for Prime Ministership for India Election 2009; one speculation is Rahul Gandhi, the son of the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi.
Apart from them, the other political parties haven't yet officially announced their Prime Ministerial candidates for the 2009 India election.
Monday, February 17, 2014
Naxal Corridor Becomes Suicide Zone For Security Forces
India's Red Corridor has turned into a suicide zone for our security personnel fighting Maoists of central and south-central India. Death can surprise our soldiers any time as rebels in the Red zone are inducting experts to carry out explosions in the most innovative ways. The terrain of the area itself poses extreme danger as the rebels manage to operate from deep inside the jungles.
Rebels in the Red zone are killing more soldiers than are dying in all insurgency-hit areas put together. A soldier fighting Maoists deep inside the jungles of central and south-central India is far more likely to be killed than his uniformed brothers taking on militants in Jammu and Kashmir or insurgents in the North-East.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Making Pakistan Bleed By A Thousand Cuts
By M H AHSSAN ! INNLIVE
India must now step up, not ease up, its multi-pronged strategy against terrorism.
The hit-and-run terrorist attack in Baramulla on October 2 left one BSF jawan dead and another critically injured. Following India’s precision surgical strike in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on September 29, ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) have risen sharply.
India must now step up, not ease up, its multi-pronged strategy against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
Strategic restraint as an anti-terrorism doctrine has been given a quiet burial. Two issues stand out. First, further Pakistani retaliation: what form it will take and how to neutralise it. Second, India’s unfolding counter-terrorism strategy.
Renewed Pakistani retaliation could take two forms. One, attacking soft targets like malls, theatres, markets and other populated urban areas by activating sleeper cells and terrorists who had crossed over into India before the Uri terror attack.
Two, more hit-and-run attacks by Pakistani terrorists on Indian border posts and increased LoC shelling.
India must be prepared for both forms of retaliation by a Pakistani army humiliated by India’s precision surgical strike.
Meanwhile, the multi-pronged strategy to counter Pakistan-sponsored terrorism can be broken up into four broad areas:
Military
India’s covert strike on September 20/21 (not officially acknowledged) reportedly killed around 20 terrorists. The surgical strike on September 29 killed an estimated 40 to 55 terrorists, though the actual figure could be higher.
More than the damage inflicted on Pakistan’s terror machine, India’s political will to strike and its military capability to do so have been clinically established.
Doubting Thomases in India abound. Some said the surgical strike was a routine affair. Others bemoaned the dangerous path India had embarked on. A few said economic growth would suffer.
The government should ignore these perennial naysayers. Vested interests in India are sometimes more beholden to Pakistan’s national interest than India’s. That is the nature of a subverted ecosystem. It will unravel in the fullness of time.
Economic
Implement the full ambit of the Indus Waters Treaty. India must optimise the water it is legally entitled to under the treaty. Pakistan can object only to abrogation of the treaty, not its full legal implementation.
As a result, Jammu and Kashmir will receive more water and generate an extra 15,000MW of hydroelectric power. All India needs to do to achieve this without violating the treaty is to build barrages and water storage facilities in J&K.
The Tulbul project (dubbed the Wullar barrage by Pakistan) is a good start. China’s move to block part of the Brahmaputra’s flow into Assam and Arunachal Pradesh should not deter India.
Pakistan will pay in two ways.
On one hand, it will receive progressively less water under the legally incontestable provisions of the Indus treaty. On the other, the principal beneficiary will be the people of J&K. The political capital this can deliver to the J&K government is incalculable.
Simultaneously, Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status granted to Pakistan in 1996 on the principle of reciprocity (a principle brazenly flouted by Islamabad and meekly accepted by Delhi for 20 years) must go.
Official trade between the two countries is low ($2 billion). Unofficial border trade is higher ($15 billion). All this misses the point. You cannot isolate a terror state by retaining its most favoured nation status. The messaging gets blurred, the outcome compromised.
Diplomatic
Isolate Pakistan both internationally and regionally. Admonitory statements from the United States, Russia and other major powers directed at Pakistan after India’s surgical strike have made it clear that the world’s patience with Islamabad has run out. The winter session of Parliament will present an opportunity to pass a resolution to declare Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism.
Meanwhile, the cancellation of the SAARC summit has isolated Pakistan regionally. Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Bhutan have made common cause with India by pointing to Pakistan as the repository of terrorism.
The BIMSTEC forum is the obvious replacement for SAARC. It brings together a group of countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Dubbed the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, BIMSTEC comprises Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan and Nepal.
Five BIMSTEC members are also members of SAARC which comprises eight countries. If Afghanistan and the Maldives (both part of SAARC) are invited as observers in BIMSTEC, the grouping will give India an even wider geopolitical footprint across Asia. Pakistan, the eighth SAARC country, will be isolated.
Concomitantly, China’s move to block Maulana Masood Azhar as a UN-designated terrorist can be used to shame China internationally as a protector of global terror. It will not be easy for an aspiring global power like China to live that down.
Strategic
Grant Baloch dissidents asylum in India and allow them to establish a government-in-exile. The "Free Balochistan" movement will keep Pakistan off balance.
Meanwhile, India must shift its strategic goalposts on J&K. The LoC is no longer sacrosanct. PoK is Indian territory, as a parliamentary resolution in 1994 underlined. The only issue now to be resolved in the "dispute" over Kashmir should be Pakistan’s vacation of PoK.
The Manmohan-Vajpayee doctrine recognised that a dialogue with Pakistan was necessary to demilitarise J&K, thus indirectly legitimising Pakistan’s claim on a part of Kashmir that is in India’s possession.
That argument has now shifted decisively. The only area in dispute and open to dialogue is the part of Kashmir illegally occupied by Pakistan.
This represents a paradigm shift in India’s stand on J&K. More that last week’s surgical strike, it is this shift and its long-term implications that has rattled Pakistan the most.
Myths
Meanwhile, banish three myths that invariably surface when Pakistan is under pressure as it is today. One, that "we are the same people". We are not.
Two, that "the people of Pakistan do not support terrorism against India". Most do. The antipathy towards Indians amongst ordinary Pakistanis is far stronger than most Indians recognise.
Three, "Both India and Pakistan are victims of terrorism". This false equivalence has infected the vocabulary of peace professionals in India. The difference of course is India does not send gangs of terrorists to Lahore and Islamabad to kill ordinary Pakistanis.
This fraudulent equivalence on terror victimhood is a narrative that, like strategic restraint, must be buried forever.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
India 2009 Elections - Information
The India Election 2009 will be contested on new constituency boundaries for the first time in over 30 years and the change was implemented on the findings of the Delimitation Commission.
Some of the major changes include merging of areas of various constituencies to eradicate population inconsistencies between different seats and reservation and de-reservation of seats. But, for the time being, the Government of India has postponed delimitation in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Manipur and Nagaland.
The National Democratic Alliance comprising the BJP and its allies officially elected L. K. Advani as their candidate for Prime Ministership for general election 2009 on January 23rd, 2008.
The Indian National Congress (INC) and its allies though haven�t officially announced their candidate for Prime Ministership for India Election 2009; one speculation is Rahul Gandhi, the son of the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi.
Apart from them, the other political parties haven't yet officially announced their Prime Ministerial candidates for the 2009 India election.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Nepal Earthquake Isn't The Big: Next 'Quake' Maybe More Dangerous And Closer To Home! - World Geo Experts
The quake, which reduced large parts of Kathmandu to rubble, is not the 'great Himalayan quake' that the region has been bracing for. All has to get ready for the worst in the near future, world geo-experts warned.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
China-India equation still uncracked
Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram last month accused China of using the ongoing crisis in Sri Lanka to "expand its sphere of influence", adding that this had "impacted on India's response to the situation". Meanwhile, China in April blocked India's loan efforts at the Asian Development Bank on territory that both nations claim.
Such allegations and suspicion only damages trust between these two Asian giants, which both have reasons to develop a more constructive and friendly partnership. China and India have rapidly growing economies, but they are still developing countries with sizeable segments of the population living in poverty. If there were fruitful bilateral cooperation and a peaceful regional environment, then people's livelihoods could be improved and both nations' economies be strengthened.
As developing countries striving for modernization, China and India could in theory be closer with each other than each is with Western countries. And any confrontation between them instantly becomes leverage for other world powers to use and gain influence over them.
Many people in the two countries, especially in India, like to compare the nations' achievements in various aspects of modernization. Some compare the development of Mumbai to that in Shanghai, while others like to compare levels of industry or political systems. But critics say these types of comparisons only lead to nationalistic emotions overtaking the more important aspects of bilateral relations.
There is a danger of Sino-India relations becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the attitude of one country leading the other to take the same attitude. Unfortunately, issues such as the decades-old border dispute are not easy to resolve.
China claims India has occupied more than 90,000 square kilometers of its territory since the 1940s. In 1913, the British-Indian authority signed a secret agreement with the then Tibetan authority in China to draw the so-called McMahon border line between China and India, which ceded several large parts of Chinese territory to India. Neither the Republic of China (ROC) or the People's Republic of China (PRC) recognized the legitimacy of the McMahon Line.
In 1947, India's Jawaharlal Nehru administration, encouraged by the idea of a great Indian federation, declared its compliance with the McMahon Line. In 1962, partly supported by the Soviet Union, Indian troops invaded the area. A border war broke out. India swiftly lost, but China's military pulled out of the disputed areas to minimize the impact of the war and to avoid superpowers becoming involved.
China has hoped India would withdraw from the territories. But India has controlled them since and many Indian nationals have migrated there, with one large part of the territories becoming an Indian state - Arunachal Pradesh - that China does not recognize.
For the sake of solidarity among developing countries, the then-Chinese government under Mao Zedong showed tolerance towards India, just as it ceded the sovereignty of a small area to North Korea and rented out an island to Vietnam, both of which were so-called brothers of the "great family of socialism".
But the wounds of the brief Sino-India border war have not healed. China has often been cited as a potential enemy of India's military, with ties worsened by China's friendship with Pakistan. India's defense minister publicly stated the threat after India's first successful nuclear-bomb test in 1998.
Any small action on one side of the disputed section of the border arouses the other's suspicion. India, for example, is sensitive to China's infrastructure projects in Tibet or even in Hainan province, assuming that they could be used in any potential conflict against India.
This mutual suspicion runs counter to the long history of good Sino-India relations. As Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said during a visit to India in 2007, the history of China-India relations is more than 2,000 years old. The long history consists of cultural communications based on Buddhism. Thus, to some degree, China and India share similar cultural values.
The friendship was also consolidated in the last century in two different stages: through fighting colonialism and seeking independence in the 1920s to the 1940s to co-advocating the five basic principles among sovereign states in the 1950s.
The current level of trade between the nations is too low, given the huge size and fast growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, and economic exchanges are still imbalanced. It was reported in 2008 that India was only China's 10th-largest trade partner and the eighth export market. However, in the same year, China was India's biggest trade partner and the third-biggest export market.
Important international issues could also be resolved through cooperation between China and India. For example, the Indian Ocean has increasingly become an important thoroughfare amid more frequent economic exchanges between Asian, African and Arabian countries. With more and more pirate activities on these waters, China and India could jointly help police the waters. Other issues, such as international infrastructure projects and anti-terrorism cooperation, could be achieved through effective cooperation.
Fortunately, both countries have realized the importance of good relations for national interests and regional prosperity. The Chinese government in 2002 issued the "three policy principles toward neighboring countries - harmony, security and prosperity", which included India as an important neighbor of China.
India in the 1990s started to implement the "Look East" policy, which partly aimed at the expansion of India's influence in Southeast Asia. Yet the policy at the same time implied that India was paying more attention to East Asia, including China. As Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said when he visited China in January, China was one focus of the Look East policy.
These overtures indicate that the countries have gradually begun to understand the importance of having each other as a neighbor. Perhaps India should not be too sensitive to Chinese activities overseas, especially in the Indian Ocean and its neighboring countries, as these are mainly related to China maintaining its fast-growing economy.
China and India should look beyond seeing each other as strangers or enemies, and look towards the ideal Indian Minister of State for Commerce Jairam Ramesh encapsulated in the word "Chindia". He coined the phrase to describe a future in which China and India are united peacefully and together keep regional stability and promote regional prosperity, an idea which be a continuation of a great historic relation and shared culture.
Sunday, March 08, 2015
Alarming Scenario: 'Brahmaputra Glaciers Are Vanishing'
"Hydrological modelling was carried out in the upstream areas of the Brahmaputra, which indicate the glaciers are likely to reduce by 20 to 55 percent by 2050," Nand Kishor Agrawal, programme coordinator for the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), told INNLIVE.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
CRUISES - River Rhapsody
That a river can be a pleasure ground of activities was discovered as early as 19th century when Jerome K. Jerome and his two friends took a leisurely ride down river Thames, vividly depicted in his famous book Three Men In A Boat, giving an iconic status to the simple boating pastime. Boats have now been replaced by exotic cruises. In fact, river cruises score over ocean liners because they sail more into the heartland. Besides, river cruises are more affordable, and offer five-star comfort. Here’s an insight into some of the best international and domestic river cruises...
Global Waters
Exploring Egypt can be any traveller’s dream. How about living the dream by sailing across the Nile? Sounds mystical, doesn’t it? Well, one can explore the magnificence of the Egyptian civilisation and its architecture by cruising down River Nile. The cruise offers a stay of three, seven or eight nights and covers the cities of Cairo, Giza, Aswan, Kom Ombo, Edfu and Luxor. Tourists can explore the temple of ancient Thebes in Luxor, go for an excursion to the valley of the kings where king Tutankhamen rests ensconsed as a mummy, take a camel ride at Giza to visit the pyramids and see the sights around the High Dam at Aswan. One can also opt for the traditional wooden sailboat, Felucca, but it is a slower option than the luxurious motor cruise. Either way, sailing the Nile to unravel the mystery of Cleopatra, the pharaohs and pyramids is a breathtaking experience.
Similarly, there can’t be a better way to explore Germany than by sailing on the rhine. And it is not just the cruise itself but the picturesque cities that it touches that makes the journey an unforgettable experience. On an eight-day tour, tourists can float through Amsterdam and Kinderdijk (Holland), Cologne, Koblenz & Rüdesheim, Heidelberg, Speyer, Strasbourg and Breisach (Germany) and Basel (Switzerland). Some cruises take a detour and sail through Koblenz (Germany), at the convergence of the Rhine and Moselle rivers. The castles and the black forest in Germany, windmills and canals in Holland, the artworks of Pablo Picasso in Switzerland are the other attractions that this river cruise offers. Not to mention the local wines and cuisine enroute.
Some of south-east Asia’s most intriguing cities such as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam can be explored on the Mekong river cruise. An eight-day Mekong river cruise takes travellers along Ho Chi Minh, Cai Be, Sa Dec, Tan Chau, Phnom Penh, Kampong Cham and Tonle river area. Like the other cruises, this one too offers the option of either a three, eight, 10 or a 13-day tour. One can visit floating markets, go ashore to visit the French Gothic Cathedral and colourful port area of Cai Be, resplendent with its colonial buildings, flower gardens and local rice paper manufacturers, explore the pre-Angkorian temple of Wat Hanchey dating back to the 8th century in Kampong Cham, or just laze around in the peaceful surroundings of the Asian waterway.
Home Calling
Exploring India through waterways can be really exciting — more so if the river is the mighty Brahmaputra.
Starting from Tibet through Arunachal Pradesh, Brahmaputra flows across the Assam Valley through Dibrugarh, Neamati, Tezpur, Guwahati, and finally enters Bangladesh to join the river Padma before reaching the Bay of Bengal. The river cruise on Brahmaputra, run by an Indo-British joint venture, is an excellent way to explore the stunning beauty of the north-east. The cruise offers a choice of four, eight or ten night tours.
An eight-night tour begins at Guwahati, and sails upstream to Kurua, Ganesh Pahar, Orang National Park, Tezpur and Kaziranga. A 10-night tour includes visits to Majuli Island (Asia’s largest river island), Sibsagar and Dhansiri Mukh.
For those interested in exploring the cultural riches of India, we recommend cruising along the Ganga. Beginning from Kolkata, the cruise travels upstream to Varanasi, covering 800 miles in 15 days. Travellers can visit the former British cantonment area of Barrackpore, the battlefield of Plassey, terracotta temples in Kalna, before entering the state of Bihar through the feeder canal of Farakka. A two-day trip to the ruins of Nalanda University and Bodh Gaya makes for a nice sojourn. Stoping over at Sarnath for a visit to the Buddhist sites, the cruise finally docks at the ghats of Varanasi.
Sailing through river Hooghly, is like journeying through the heart of Bengal. Exploring the essence of bengal in Belur, Chandannagore, Mayapur, Nabadwip, Murshidabad and Kalna can be an exhilarating experience. Apart from enjoying religious and heritage sites such as the Belur Math, Iskon temple at Mayapur and the fort of nawabs in Murshidabad, on-boat activities add to the thrill.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Beijing Fails Korean Test
Last Sunday in the closing news conference of the trilateral China-Japan-South Korean summit in South Korea, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said: "The urgent task for the moment is to properly handle the serious impact caused by the Cheonan incident, gradually defuse tensions over it and avoid possible conflicts." He was referring to the unprovoked attack and destruction of the South Korean vessel by North Korea. From this it became evident that the Chinese government was unable to either take a hard line against Pyongyang or curb its adventurism. The North Korean action, like several earlier unilateral actions taken by it, did not serve any visible interests of Beijing. Yet, North Korea continues to have its way. Why and how?
For many years circumstantial evidence provided one obvious reason. The government in Beijing is not in full command of its policies. On many occasions it has had to bow down before the dictates of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). To substantiate it this scribe drew attention to various events. On numerous occasions the utterances of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao were rubbished by developments emanating from official sources in Beijing.
One example was provided by Beijing overturning its written commitment given in 2005 to not disturb settled populations for resolving the boundary dispute by later claiming Arunachal Pradesh. Continuous conflicting signals from Beijing indicated that either the Chinese government was brazenly and crudely hypocritical, or that its authority could be challenged from within. The first possibility was ruled out because given Chinese tradition of keeping face no President would willingly allow his own commitments to be rubbished.
The second projection offered by this scribe, that Beijing was thwarted by PLA, was confirmed by America’s prestigious journal, Foreign Affairs. In its May-June 2007 issue two China experts, Bates Gill and Martin Kleiber, analyzing China’s flip-flop policies wrote: “Put bluntly, Beijing’s right hand may not have known what its left hand was doing. The PLA (proceeds) without consulting other key parts of the Chinese security and foreign policy bureaucracy.”
At the global level the most glaring evidence of Beijing ’s impotence in dealing with the PLA is provided by successive actions of the North Korean government. North Korea is the world’s most repressive regime. It can barely feed itself. By stopping food and fuel supplies Beijing can bring North Korea to its knees in less than a week.
Yet, Pyongyang has repeatedly defied President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Earlier it conducted a nuclear test against the expressed wishes of Beijing. It subsequently fired a missile dangerously close to Japan as provocation. On both occasion Beijing could only helplessly wring its hands. How can impoverished North Korea boast of advanced military power and nuclear technology without outside support? From where does it derive its power to defy the leaders of the Chinese government? The obvious inference is that it derives its clout from the PLA. North Korean President Kim Jong II is running a regime that parallels the former Cambodian regime of Pol Pot. The PLA was Pol Pot’s patron and mentor. The overwhelming evidence suggests that PLA controls North Korea.
Despite this, western media and governments keep alive the fiction that North Korea is an in dependent entity outside Beijing ’s control. This hypocrisy arises no doubt from the West’s economic entrapment by China. America has repeatedly failed to assert itself with Beijing on the North Korean question.
North Korea deliberately provoked Japan by firing a rocket along its borders. After that on April 6 2009 this scribe wrote: “The US and Japan had warned Pyongyang that the rocket would be shot down if fired. The rocket was fired. Nothing was done to stop it… North Korea was really testing long-range ballistic missile technology that could be used to carry a nuclear warhead to as far as America… all that Obama could do was to criticize North Korea’s test and propose a summit in Washington to ratify a ban on nuclear testing. He said: "I state clearly and with conviction America 's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”
President Obama’s response was so pathetic that America can be written off as far as dealing with Beijing is concerned. The current standoff with North Korea suggests that President Hu Jinatao and Premier Wen Jiabao are equally impotent in dealing with North Korea because the ultimate power in China continues to flow from the barrel of the gun held by PLA. Therefore Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his misty eyed colleagues who seek ever closer economic and cultural ties with China need a reality check. Until the Beijing government gives visible proof that it can exercise its authority over the PLA, it is foolhardy to trust China . The relationship between the Beijing government and PLA is exactly like that between the Pakistan government and its army. Indeed, it is more likely that Islamabad will eventually prevail over the Pakistan army than there is of Beijing overcoming PLA.
Monday, February 16, 2015
'Maha Shivaratri'- The Night Of 'Enlightening Ignorant Minds' And Protecting From 'Human Sufferings'
This body-consciousness gives rise to vices such as lust, anger and greed, which are the root causes of all human suffering. Shivaratri thus stands for not just one night but the entire Kaliyug period of ignorance and unrighteousness that is brought to an end by Shiva.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
FROG WEDDING TO APPEASE 'RAIN GOD' IN NORTHEAST INDIA
In a ritual to appease the rain god, villagers in Tripura and Assam married off frogs hoping that it would end their sufferings arising out of a protracted dry spell in India’s northeastern region. Frog weddings are traditionally performed in northeastern India during drought-like situations before the onset of monsoon. “It is believed that the rain god is pleased when a frog wedding is performed. Since there has been no rain for the past couple of months, we have conducted a frog wedding to appease ‘Barun Devata’ (rain god),” said Sandhya Chakraborty, a resident of Fatikroy village, 115 km north of here.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Water Scarcity Increase Tensions Across The World
There are a number of reasons why water will be so critical. Let’s start from Southeast Asia and go all the way to Africa. Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos; then there’s China, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey; then we go south to Israel, Palestine, Egypt and all the way to Tanzania. It’s a mega arc of hydro insecurity.
If water supply drops by 5 percent in 20-25 years in China and India, food production here will also drop, while demand would have gone up substantially. Already there are food crises. The world noticed that in 2008 when prices went up for the first time. Right now, India and China are not in the market in a big way. In another 25 years you have a possibility of these countries entering the food market as buyers. This will wreak huge havoc.
This won’t take place 25 years from now; it’ll start in the next two years as people start noticing these trends. Speculation in commodities will increase substantially.
Water is already emerging as a global issue in the security debate, not in the global economic or food debate. The initial response is short sighted.
They are constantly engaged in negotiating allocation of respective shares, which actually leads to conflicts between upper and lower riparian countries. You have tensions between Turkey and Syria, Iraq; Israel-Palestine; Egypt-Ethiopia. There’s now tension between Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos as well.
Water could emerge as a potential source of conflict. But it could also emerge as a potential source of economic growth and co-operation between these countries. It’s in this context that water is important in 2013.
The solution lies in looking at water from a different point of view. Due to a number of international developments, in 2013, we will see a substantial impetus to the concept of water efficiency of economies.
Eighty percent of water in most developing economies is used for agriculture. Water for drinking and other biological purposes is 5 percent and for industries is 15 percent. By simply reducing the usage of water in agriculture, you will save a lot of water.
Israel has developed IOD [irrigation on demand] where they use software in a field. The control mechanism gets to know if any plants are over- watered or under-watered. The software will communicate between the plant and control mechanism to influence the flow of water. The Israelis estimate this will save 50 percent of water [in agriculture]. This will be a game changer.
Another technological development tackles the problem of leaking pipes. Water which is lost in leakages varies from 10 to 40 percent across the world. South Africa has developed a new technology where the pipes communicate with a control mechanism to identify leakage and that will alert the supervisors immediately.
In 2013, there are a couple of political developments taking place. The World Water Forum will take place in France. This will lead to a major reassessment of the whole water scene in the world. Second, the Swiss Parliament has specially allocated authority and support to the government to find solutions to the world’s water problems. Singapore will also give a big push. They have their annual version of World Water Forum. Third, Israel’s technologies will hit the market.
New agreements are being negotiated. What you require to do in different countries is encourage production of certain crops in some countries and other crops in other countries depending on soil, moisture and other factors. In South Asia, some crops can be grown in Pakistan, some in India and some in China. To do that you need strong economic co-operation and a free trade market in agriculture. That means you have to go for new forms of regional co-operation.
There are a lot of political leaders in all these countries who are open to the idea of using water as an instrument to increase economic growth and develop technology. But there is bureaucratic resistance. They still think of water as ‘my water versus your water’. 2013-2015 will be a crucial period where the will of politicians will be tested against bureaucratic resistance across the mega arc.
Take the Brahmaputra. China wants to develop its Southwest region and India, its Northeast. Both countries need to generate electricity. From India it is easier to take lines to China’s Southwest than to the rest of India. India wants to develop Arunachal Pradesh as a major producer of electricity to develop eastern India. If carefully monitored transit co-operation takes place, India would be doing China a big favour. China doesn’t have too many ports in that region. There can be a multi-modal transport via the Brahmaputra. You have to include Bangladesh in this as well.
If a group of countries decide to take a co-operative approach to exploit the full potential of water and sustain environment at the same time and rejuvenate water itself, they will be the beneficiaries.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Assessing China’s Future
Most China experts agree that China is changing. But there is little agreement about how it will change. Change in China is compelled by several factors. The one-child policy dictated by the government has led to a demographic imbalance with fewer than desired young people from whom the labour force is recruited. Also, better education and more exposure to global trends has created anger and frustration among workers whose parents were very different – hard working and unquestioning – that helped create China’s economic miracle.
The first sign that China’s workers were getting restive came about from a suicide that was highlighted by New York Times. The dead body of a 19-year-old worker, Ma Xiangqian, was discovered. Investigation revealed that during his last month he worked three times the legal limit of overtime. His work conditions and treatment meted to him were horrendous. Subsequently a dozen other suicide cases among workers occurred. Analysts believe that China’s notoriously cheap and ill treated work force that allowed Beijing to exploit it as a goldmine has ended. Already wages have gone up and are expected rise further. This means goodbye to China’s previous virtual slave labour that attracted foreign investment and enabled multinational corporations to rake in huge profits.
Also, higher wage raises production costs to push up prices of most consumer goods that China exports. Presently Chinese economy runs on its exports. If higher priced exports shrink Beijing must find alternative markets to sustain its economy. The increased wages of workers are not sufficiently high to make them consumers who can replace export markets. And according to experts the workers will remain inadequate consumers for one more decade.
This then is the economic challenge that Beijing faces. But China’s rulers are wisely attempting to convert this challenge into opportunity. Beijing announced a raise in minimum wage to placate the growing assertiveness of workers. This will stimulate domestic consumption, make China less dependent on low-priced exports, and help reduce the dangerous gap between the rich and the poor. One does not see any insurmountable challenge to China’s economy.
The challenge however will be political. As the gap between the rich and the poor, however gradually, continues to narrow, as workers and peasants increasingly question authority and assert their rights, as even a stifled Internet makes dissent more vocal, China will have to soften its system. This is where there could be a few hiccups. Here again, problems in the Communist Party government appear open to solution.
President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao belong to an older generation and were earlier members of China’s Communist Youth League that was very active during China’s infamous Cultural Revolution. Even between Hu and Wen there is a distinct difference of nuance. The latter was personal aide to Zhao Zhang who was pro-democracy and strongly opposed the Tiananmen massacre. Hu on the other hand was selected by Deng Xiaoping to administer Tibet which he did with uncommon ruthlessness to lay the foundation of Tibet’s current bitterness. Yet, Hu and Wen seem to get along well enough.
However, soon both will be replaced by a younger leadership. The new leaders are expected to be Xi Jinping and Zhou Youngkang. Both are described as “Princelings”, the progeny of the Communist elite that participated with Mao but disagreed with his hard line approach. Both Xi and Zhou through their public pronouncements hold out hope of a more soft approach.
The problem arises not from China’s Communist Party but from its army. Much before western governments or media publicly recognized the problem this scribe had repeatedly pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was acting as the super boss dictating foreign policy to the Beijing government. Unfolding events have brought this out more in the open. Now it is widely acknowledged that the civilian government and PLA most often do not see eye to eye. And when differences arise, it is the PLA that prevails. As Carnegie Endowment China specialist Michael Swaine was quoted: “Many, if not all, officials of the US government believe the current situation is one in which the military has the bit in its mouth and is taking the lead in the issue (of foreign policy)…the Communist Party and the foreign affairs apparatus is not terribly happy about it, but is going along with it.”
According to reports the Princelings have begun interacting with younger elements of the PLA to modernize and professionalize the army. If they do not succeed in taming PLA China could implode. Taming PLA may not be easy. Witness how North Korean army recently killed three Chinese civilians. Could this have been done by defying PLA? Is that why Beijing’s reaction was so low-key?
The litmus test of a new soft China will manifest from how Beijing handles Arunachal Pradesh, as distinct from the rest of the boundary dispute. In 2005 Beijing gave written assurance that it would not disturb settled populations on the border. Later it reneged on its word. One must also watch how Tibet and Xingjian are handled. Only an inflexible self defeating approach can explain Beijing’s hostility to Dalai Lama despite the latter’s conciliatory statements.
The quicker China changes, the faster it will grow. Will Beijing’s new leaders successfully introduce change? I believe they will. Ultimately China is too big, the stakes are too high, the survival instincts of its smart leaders are too strong, to allow China to implode. But transition to softer China may not be entirely smooth. Soft China would of course promote its hegemonic ambitions more effectively. Beijing, after all, replicates Hitler’s model minus anti-Semitism.
Tuesday, February 05, 2013
Where Are Our Missing Children?
If you are a parent, go hug your child before you read this piece. We have an epidemic on, an epidemic that gets but a passing mention in the newspapers, an epidemic that is real and tangible only for those parents who wait for the call that never comes, the child who never returns, who do the rounds of the police stations, photographs in hand, who put out advertisements in the newspapers, describing what their child was wearing when he or she went missing, who live a life in limbo. Our children are going missing. One child every eight minutes across India.
Nobody’s Missing Children
Wednesday, June 01, 2016
'Aaj Aane Ki Zid Na Karo': India Deserves Better Than Rahul Gandhi
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
INDIA, CHINA FACE OFF AT THE 'GATE OF HELL'
Yarkandi caravan guides on the great Himal’s routes to Leh, might have mapped the journey thus: from the great plains, climb into the pass of the black gravel, the Karakoram. From there, cross the Chip-Chap, the very quiet river, to reach Daulat Beg Oldi, the spot where the great and rich man died,. Then, you reach a long open space, the Depsang plateau, leading on to the Qazi Langar, a qazi, or cleric once ran a kitchen. Then comes the camp at Burtsé, named for shrubs that can heal wounds, and burn well. Now, ahead, lies the Mur-go, the gate to hell.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Logic Of Telangana Is Sound: Why India Needs 50 States?
Yesterday’s Congress decision to allow a new state – Telangana – to be carved out of Andhra Pradesh has a simple logic behind it: electoral math. If Telangana had not been announced, Congress would have been wiped out in both the Andhra and Telangana regions in 2014. The announcement thus is a matter of self-preservation.
If this wasn’t the case, Telangana could already have been a reality by now, for the first announcement on it was made as early as on 9 December 2009 by no less a person than P Chidambaram, then Home Minister. That he reneged on the promise in less than two weeks tells another story. That it took three-and-a-half years and a full-fledged people’s agitation for the Congress to make yet another announcement on Telangana tells the story even more clearly.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Special Report: India-Bhutan Ties At A Start Or An End?
Since Bhutan opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by Tsering Tobgay won last week's National Assembly elections, speculation has grown over the influence that India's decision threats to withdraw certain subsidies had on the vote. Many analysts say India's withdrawal of subsidies on cooking gas, kerosene oil, excise duty refund and hydro-electric projects could have lost the vote for the formerly ruling Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT).
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Opinion: Is Holding Simultaneous Elections For Lok Sabha And State Assemblies Necessarily A Good Idea?
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Where Has All The 'India Defence' Money Gone?
The key heights of the Kargil sector at 16,000 feet to 18,000 feet were under their control. The Indian Army’s answer was the controversial Bofors gun, with its 35-km range, which became its primary weapon to bombard enemy positions relentlessly. The Artillery had even struck upon a new strategy, by changing the angle of the guns to fire more effectively—a manoeuvre that has found its way into US military manuals. The Bofors howitzers were one of the primary factors in India winning the war. Firing three rounds in 12 seconds, they pounded the enemy ceaselessly for nearly two months, as the Indian infantry mounted attacks on the mountain slopes where the ice had melted in summer.