The latest India Today Group-Cicero Mood of The Nation Survey shows that the BJP would lose at least 27 Lok Sabha seats from its current tally if elections were held today.
In the opinion poll, 38 per cent of the 12,000 respondents rated Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s performance as ‘good’.
Of those who participated in the opinion poll, 22 per cent categorised it as ‘excellent’ and only 11 per cent said they were ‘unhappy’ with the first 10 months of the National Democratic Alliance government.
The findings of the opinion poll should come as a wake-up call for the Union government as people might be satisfied overall with its performance on the counts of governance, economy and foreign affairs, but the communal tag is pulling its image down.
A direct fall-out of the government’s image taking a beating is evident in terms of seat projections for the BJP. The survey shows that the ruling party will lose 27 seats while others will gain 24.
The Congress is expected to increase its tally by nine seats after its worst performance in the 2014 elections, when it returned only 44 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
The number of seats for the BJP, which delivered its best-ever performance winning 282 seats, shows a downward spiral stopping at 255.
The news is not good for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, where it is seemingly losing ground to the Samajwadi Party. For the Congress, the gains will come from states like Rajasthan.
There is a slight dip in Narendra Modi’s own popularity as well. His popularity as ‘best suited to become the prime minister’ has come down from 57 per cent in August 2014 to only 36 per cent in the latest survey.
Modi has a new contender in Arvind Kejriwal as the best suited leader to become the prime minister. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader took the second place on this list, with 15 per cent of respondents supporting him.
However, 40 per cent of the respondents believe that Kejriwal is a maverick, while 47 per cent want AAP to go national.
A major section of the voters wants Kejriwal to target corruption as his first priority and then move to reducing the prices of electricity and water.
But, in what must come as good news to him, Modi has emerged the best prime minister ever, displacing Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Indira Gandhi.
Showing that they are not overly enthused by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s Hindu Rashtra theory, many of the respondents feel that price rise is the biggest issue affecting them.
Another interesting aspect that emerged from the survey is that 60 per cent of respondents favour an anti-conversion law.
It appears that the results of the Delhi Assembly elections on February 10 were a turning point of sorts for the BJP government at the Centre as well.
A majority of the respondents feel that the defeat in the Delhi elections should be a wake-up call for the prime minister.
There is near unanimity among the respondents that Kiran Bedi’s projection as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate in Delhi was the single largest factor behind the party’s defeat.
The survey has thrown up interesting prospects for the Congress, which is currently down and out. As many as 48 per cent of respondents now believe that the party can bounce back in five years. In August 2014, only 38 per cent voters had said they believed in such a resurgence.
At least 47 per cent of respondents believe that Rahul Gandhi should be the next Congress president and an almost similar percentage feels he can lead its revival.
Among the ‘most popular chief ministers’, Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal has emerged the winner. In Odisha, however, Naveen Patnaik was the most popular choice.
As per the survey, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the ‘most honest politician’. The opinion poll also shows that cross-border terrorism and Pakistan are the main concerns for many respondents, while 26 per cent favour closer ties with the US.
Nearly 18 per cent say that India should have better ties with China.
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