In this scenario, will Hyderabad based Majlis party (AIIM) led by Owaisi brothers will grow up to a national party by uniting Indian muslims? This is a million dollar question. Let's peep into the recent past and try to get the answer.
There was a lot riding on the Aurangabad civic poll results – All India Majlis Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) or Majlis, which until recently was considered only a regional party in and around Hyderabad, was hoping to score big.
The spectacular performance of Majlis was important for its attempt to true to its name become an “all India” political party and to politically unite all Muslims.
With its success in Maharashtra and talks of contesting polls in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, Majlis may go on to eventually become a national party but what explains its less than expected performance in Bandra by-poll earlier this month?
But first Aurangabad. There, Majlis won 25 of the 53-seats it contested in the civic polls becoming the second largest party. Four of the Majlis winners are dalits, one is from the OBC and rest 20 are Muslims. Twelve of the 25 new Majlis corporators are women. This comes after last year’s Maharashtra assembly election where for the first time Majlis was able to win a seat outside its home base of Hyderabad. Majlis had contested at 24 seats in the 2014 assembly election in Maharashtra, out of which they won two seats, three of its candidates came second and eight others finished third – impressive by any standard. One of the places where AIMIM candidate finished third was Bandra East, where Rahbar Siraj Khan of the party polled 23,976 votes and came in third after Shiv Sena and BJP candidates.
With the death of Bala Sawant, Shiv Sena MLA from Bandra East, the constituency went for by-polls earlier this month. Sawant’s wife Trupti Sawant contested this seat and retained it for the Shiv Sena. However, the data for Bandra East three elections – 2009, 2014, and 2015 provides an interesting insight into the question of who is supporting Majlis and what will be the long-term implication of Majlis growth in Indian politics.
Let’s look at the numbers first: if you don’t count NOTA (None of the above) votes, then as many as 1,19,463 votes were polled in 2009; 1,23,672 in 2014 and 1,02,242 in 2015. If we combine Shiv Sena (SS), Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) votes into ‘Hindutva votes’ category, then we see that in 2009, 54.2% were Hindutva votes which grew to 58.7% in 2014 but came down to 51.6 % in 2015. Similarly, combining votes for non-Hindutva parties into “secular votes,” we get 42.5% in 2009, 39.6% in 2014, and 47.7% in 2015.
Majlis didn’t contest the election 2009 so the “secular vote” was divided between Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In 2014, Majlis led the secular block with over 19% of all votes polled. However, in 2015 election, it lost about 8,000 votes and could get 15% of the total votes. Majlis share in “secular votes” was 49% in 2014, which got reduced to 31% in 2015, a significant drop considering “secular votes” share of the total votes actually grew in 2015. If we look at the actual numbers, then we have 50,784 “secular votes” in 2009; 48,949 in 2014; and 48,753 in 2015 – which means that “secular votes” have remained consistent in the past three elections while “Hindutva votes” have fluctuated from 64,768 in 2009 to 72,580 in 2014 and 52,711 in 2015.
These numbers suggests that Majlis is not getting new “secular votes” to the polling booth. It has robbed other political parties such as Congress and Samajwadi Party for the votes without adding any new votes to the mix. Notwithstanding the slogan of “Jai Meem, Jai Bheem,” BSP was not only able to hold on to its vote base, but in fact, improved its performance from 1,619 in 2009 to 1,891votes in 2014. BSP didn’t contest the 2015 by-polls. Samajwadi Party was the worst sufferer of Majlis performance in 2014. In 2009, it got over 10,000 votes but could gather only 1,000 in 2014. It also chose to skip 2015. It is not clear from data how to explain Congress recovering in 2015 grounds that it lost to Majlis in 2014 election of Bandra East.
So what does all this mean for the future of Majlis and Muslim politics in India? Frequent appearance Asaduddin Owaisi, president of Majlis and party’s lone Member of Parliament, in the media along with his parliamentary speeches have created a fan following for him among the Muslim youth. They see him as someone who is able to articulate Muslim views fearlessly.
Muslim leadership so far has been of either religious background or enforced from above, either speaking difficult Urdu that general population cannot understand or leaders who are so elite who have no idea what an average Muslim goes through. Owaisi, who dresses in traditional attire and can speak in fluent Urdu. He is also equipped with modern education (he studied law in UK) and has the ability to debate in English, which has provided a ray of hope for the Muslim youths. He reminds the Muslims that they have a stake in India and they should fight for their rights here.
Muslims youth, otherwise, may have been completely disillusioned by discrimination that they face as a community in India, are finally excited about the political process and electoral victories.
But Majlis is a political party; it is not a political or social movement and it cannot bring about a reform among Muslims (not all problems of Muslims are political). It can help generate some political leadership among Muslims, which other political parties have either failed or neglected to do. Irrespective of religious-toned speeches of its leaders, Majlis works within the Indian political and legal system. Elder brother Asaduddin Owaisi tirelessly raises the issues of Muslims in the Lok Sabha by speeches and questions while younger brother Akbaruddin Owaisi led his party legislators in Andhra Assembly raising issues of importance to Muslims.
Majlis has been winning Hyderabad parliamentary seat since 1984. People of Hyderabad are well aware of how much work Majlis has been able to do in these 30 years. Majlis doesn’t believe in election manifestos and therefore there is nothing for them to be held accountable to. Listen to speeches of Majlis leaders and it’s clear that they are not pretending to ask for votes based on their work on the ground.
So, here is a warning for new fans of Majlis – be prepared for a lot of rhetoric but also demand actions from your leaders. Get yourselves into leadership positions. Forget international and national topics and focus on local issues and learn how to negotiate with the local administrations. Get more people excited about the political process. Mobilize people, organize on rights-based issues, and join common cause with other marginalized people as well.
Majlis leaders have a lot of responsibility on their shoulders. They should invest in members with training and education; teach them the art of politics and develop leaderships at all levels – from local to regional to national. The party should give ample representation to different sections of Muslims as well as Dalits, the other constituency that it claims to represent. Muslim women have been ignored for a long time; Majlis can get that untapped energy channeled for the development of the community.
Majlis as a political party has the potential to become an all India party as long as it is able to deliver. Its failure will be a loss for Muslims and by extension for India too.
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