This is it. After more than a month, we’ve got our four semi-finalists: New Zealand, South Africa, India and Australia. Fittingly, it has to be said that the top four teams in the tournaments are here, though Pakistan may beg to disagree.
Halfway through the group stage, we stuck our neck out and predicted the quarter-final line-up.
We got it quite wrong: things went topsy-turvy, Pakistan abruptly found inspiration over South Africa, and Bangladesh channelised their inner tiger against England. We duly ended up with mud on our faces and retreated with our tails between our legs.
So what? We’re back. This time, we’re trying to redeem ourselves by predicting the finalists. Last time, we erred too much by being conservative, this time, we’re going filly out on a limb!
New Zealand vs South Africa
South Africa had Sri Lanka staring at them in the quarter-finals. The added pressure of never winning a knock-out match at the World Cup along with the recent patchiness in their form was also a worry. And yet, how empathically they responded. The South African bowling attack finally came to the party, finally living up to their billing at the start of the tournament as among the best bowling attacks in the world.
New Zealand have romped through to the semis, playing a brand of attacking, aggressive cricket which has won them admirers from all over. There were initial worries over the form of their top order, but Guptill’s epic 237 will have quelled those doubts. McCullum still hasn’t fired in the tournament and South Africa will hope that they can keep him quiet for the semis as well.
The Key Men
Duminy and Tahir for South Africa. After the group stage, the main worry for South Africa was their fifth bowling option. Things came to such a head that De Villiers had to turn his arm over and the genius that he is, even picked up wickets. But Duminy’s hat-trick against Sri Lanka has settled the debate. Duminy has matured from just a tweaker to an intelligent bowler and adds a lot of balance to this South African side.
Before the World Cup, with the kind of quality in the South African ranks, it would have been scarcely unbelievable to think that Tahir would take more wickets compared to Morkel, Philander or Styen. But that’s exactly what’s happened: with 15 wickets, Tahir sits pretty on the list. Having struggled for long in their search for a spinner, South Africa have been richly rewarded for sticking with Tahir: he adds variety to the attack and will fancy his chances against New Zealand who still haven’t been tested by quality spin.
Ross Taylor for New Zealand. Despite New Zealand’s blistering run to the semis, Ross Taylor is one man who still has a point to prove. He hasn’t risen to the occasion yet in this World Cup and has watched other colleagues like Williamson and Guptill walk away with the plaudits. That run-out against West Indies will have frustrated him. As a player though, he can be just as overwhelmingly destructive as a Guptill or McCullum and he’ll want to remind South Africa of that.
Prediction: New Zealand defeats South Africa
South Africa will point out that New Zealand’s home advantage does not matter much in this game, as they’ve defeated the Kiwisin the last five completed matches they’ve played in New Zealand. However, New Zealand have looked in unstoppable form; what tilts the scales in their favour is that someone or the other has stepped up to the plate whenever required.
India v Australia
Maxwell fired the first verbal blow on Saturday as he said that he hoped India would remember their recent dismal record against Australia. India might, quite amusedly, ask him to check the records for this World Cup: India have taken all 70 wickets on offer in all their matches and haven’t even looked close to losing. Contrast that to Australia, who found themselves bowled out within 33 overs against New Zealand, fought a close match with Sri Lanka, and were clutching to straws during the middle overs against Riaz’s onslaught.
India don’t seem to have a weak link. Before the quarters, people spoke about their opening weaknesses; Rohit Sharma took that opportunity to blast off and silence a few detractors. Bhuvaneshwar Kumar, before the World Cup, considered one of India’s best swing bowling exponents, can’t get a place in this team right now, despite being fully fit – testimony to how well the bowlers have performed for India in this World Cup.
Key Players
Mitchell Johnson for Australia. Enough is enough now. The group stages are over, the quarters are done and dusted and the world (except Indian fans) wants to see the old, menacing Johnson. He’s not been doing too badly, quietly picking up wickets in Starc’s shadow but this semi-final is the biggest stage to get back to what he does best: scare batsmen out.
Jadeja and Ashwin for India: Both have poor records against Australia. Ashwin averages 47 against Australia, compared to his overall average of 31 while Jadeja averages 46 compared to his overall of 32. India, though, will count on them to administer the squeeze in the middle overs; Australia don’t have a great reputation for playing spin and might find it easier to play Shami, Yadav and Mohit Sharma.
Prediction: India defeats Australia
History will say otherwise, but in a pressure match like this, history matters little. India has seen enough of Australia over the past few months and know the chinks in their armour. Australia have done well to get here but have struggled at times; India should be able to capitalize on those key moments.
So, will we see a India v New Zealand final?
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