Is Anything Cooking Between PM Modi And CM KCR?

This could be the tricky mid-game in political chess being played between Delhi and Telangana & Andhra Pradesh.

K Chandrasekhar Rao meets Narendra Modi = Telangana Rashtra Samiti joins NDA government?

True or False? The two men who know the answer to the question aren't talking but the grapevine has been good enough to set many a heart aflutter. It was the Congress in Telangana that spread the "news" by suggesting that getting his daughter Kavitha - a first-time MP from Nizamabad - a ministerial berth was the real reason for the CM-PM meeting in New Delhi.


"Just a rumour" was Kavitha's response when asked about the speculation. But having checked the facts with multiple sources, one gathers that some effort has indeed been made for some weeks now and the news deliberately leaked because both the TRS and the BJP stand to gain by such "rumours''.

How does the TRS gain?

The pink party has been unhappy that despite being in power in India's youngest state, it is not a player to reckon with in the power matrix in Lutyens Delhi. What makes it worse is that KCR's bête noire, Chandrababu Naidu enjoys a far better equation with Modi and two of his MPs are ministers in the Modi sarkar. The TRS argument is that being on Modi's right side may just help it get more goodies from Delhi.

Two, KCR can get a ministerial berth for Kavitha and that will raise KCR's daughter's profile. The CM is not one to bother about criticism that his son and nephew are already high-profile ministers in Hyderabad.

Three, it will neutralise whatever little opposition the BJP can mount to the TRS in Telangana.

Four, a decent performance in the ministry will elevate the national image of the TRS.

Does the BJP gain?

Very little. Modi does not need numbers in the Lok Sabha and holding the carrot of ministries will be good enough for him to get the miniscule TRS support in the Rajya Sabha. After the Delhi debacle, Modi will not want to make any wrong political move. Annoying Chandrababu Naidu will hurt Modi's image because Naidu is not a Vaiko.

But at the same time, Modi can keep Naidu in check by letting him know that he can choose to travel in the TRS "car"(election symbol) rather than the TDP bicycle, should the need arise. The BJP in Telangana in any case, sees Naidu as a liability. Staying with the NDA has not helped Naidu get too many financial goodies from the Centre. This could be the tricky mid-game in political chess being played between Delhi and Vijayawada.

Will KCR and Modi tango?

Several ifs and buts.

(a) Muslim factor: KCR will stand to lose his Muslim vote in Telangana if he goes with the BJP. The MIM is also a TRS ally which could go its own way or even drift towards the Congress, should KCR and the BJP move closer. By going with the BJP, KCR by default will end up giving a significant vote bank on a platter to the Congress.

(b) Trust deficit: KCR is seen as a very clever politician. Before the decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh was taken, he had made the Congress an offer of "Grant statehood, merge TRS". A greedy Congress fell for the bait but KCR went back on his word after Telangana was created, arguing that the Congress did not read the fineprint that said the offer came with an expiry date.

(c) In the 2019 elections, the BJP hopes to do well in Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, that send 70 Lok Sabha MPs. Doing business with KCR will dent the party in Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for 25 seats. The party is in expansion mode in Andhra Pradesh and is looking at forging a Kapu-Reddy caste combination to even possibly take on Kamma TDP in 2019. The Reddy community isn't too happy with Jaganmohan Reddy and the BJP, if Modi performs well in government and wins state elections, can be a viable option.

(d) KCR, one is told by sources, is in favour of being a Naveen Patnaik - maintaining equidistance from both the Congress and the BJP. And by decimating the opposition systematically, like he is by cutting the TDP to size in Telangana, KCR believes he can be a long-term player. And he thinks that the course correction, if needed, should happen only close to the 2019 elections to the Centre and in Telangana.

Any future decision, could however, hinge on two things. How the BJP-TDP relationship progresses, which will depend on how long Naidu puts up with running a virtually bankrupt Andhra Pradesh government, whose thirst for central help is not being quenched. 

And two, after the Delhi elections exposed a chink in the Modi-Amit Shah armour, the Bihar elections will be the next acid test. A reverse in Patna could push Modi back to the drawing board and you never know, KCR could emerge as one of the choices to nurse him back into the pink of political health.