Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Congress Crisis Deepens As Its Support Base Crumbles

Decimated in Delhi, the party draws solace from humiliation heaped on Modi.

Once it became clear that the Congress was all set for a wipe-out in the Delhi assembly polls, a group of party workers gathered outside the party office headquarters on Tuesday morning to demand that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra play a more active role in politics.

The all-too familiar slogans, “Priyanka lao, Congress bachao” were again raised, similar to the demand made after the party was routed in last year’s Lok Sabha election and subsequently in the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls.

These recurring demonstrations demanding Priyanka’s greater involvement in the party reflect the growing disenchantment with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and his style of functioning. Having been repeatedly mauled in a series of elections over the last year, demoralised Congress workers have lost confidence in Rahul Gandhi who, they believe, does not have the temperament or the potential to resurrect the party.

Already in the grip of a serious crisis, the churning in the Congress is expected to intensify further after it failed to win even one seat in the Delhi assembly polls. To begin with, it could have an impact on the  ongoing organisational polls, which will culminate in the election of a party president later this year.

There have been strong indications that Rahul Gandhi would take over from Sonia Gandhi, who is said to be keen on handing over the baton to her son. However, the party’s latest electoral debacle could make it difficult his succession difficult.

Rahul Gandhi and his advisors are already under attack from the party’s old guard, who owe allegiance to Sonia Gandhi. The Delhi result may well embolden the seniors to step up their resistance to Rahul Gandhi’s elevation and press for Sonia Gandhi to continue as party president. A senior Congress leader went as far to state that the internal tussle in the party was reminiscent of the challenge mounted against Indira Gandhi by “the syndicate”.

Besides dealing with its leadership crisis, the Congress has a lot to introspect over if it is serious about reinventing itself. To begin with, the party has to improve its communication skills and come up with fresh ideas as it has been unable to establish a connect with voters. Sonia Gandhi appears tired and has nothing new to offer, while Rahul Gandhi has become a subject of ridicule.

The Congress has paid a heavy price for this disconnect. Its big concern today is the steady erosion in its support base. It had already ceded space to regional parties in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telangana  and Andhra Pradesh.

The Congress has now been upstaged in Delhi, which witnessed a mass migration of  traditional Congress supporters to the Aam Aadmi Party. As a result, its vote share slumped to under 10%. It must be particularly galling for the grand old party as political observers have been quick to describe AAP as the new Congress.

“This is indeed a matter of concern for us,“ said PC Chacko, Congress general secretary incharge of Delhi.  "The erosion in our support base is not good…we have a tough time ahead." Chacko admitted that the party in Delhi had become lethargic while AAP had succeeded because it had been in constant touch with the people.  “We didn’t do it... so we lost,” he added.

The Congress is aware that its slide will continue if it fails to put its house in order. The party will face its next big challenge in the Punjab assembly elections in 2017 as the party has been depending on this state to stage a comeback by cashing in on the strong anti-incumbency against the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP government.

The Aam Aadmi Party had defied all national trends and surprised pollsters by winning four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab last year. If the AAP government delivers on its election promises in Delhi, there is every possibility that the Congress could give way to AAP in the next assembly polls in Punjab since the party already has a base in the state. The Congress had hoped to begin its revival from Punjab as it has virtually no presence in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, where assembly polls are to be held over the next year.

While the Congress mulls over its bleak future, it is drawing solace from the fact that its chief political rival, the BJP, has also been decimated in the Delhi election. “The result today is not good for us in Delhi, but the BJP’s loss should prove to be a gain for the Congress and other anti-BJP parties at the national level,” claimed a senior Congress leader.

The Congress is especially relieved as this election has proved that the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo is not as invincible as it has been made out to be. It is still early to say whether the BJP’s rout in Delhi will affect elections in Bihar and West Bengal – the saffron party’s next targets. But today’s verdict will galvanise their opponents like the Janata Dal (U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress into putting up a good fight.

As for the Congress, it is happy if regional players succeed in halting the Modi juggernaut. In fact, it is counting on them to do so. 

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