Before I begin, my thoughts and prayer goes out to the operating crew, the passengers on board and the affected families, relatives and our friends at AirAsia Malaysia and AirAsia Indonesia.
It’s extremely unfortunate that with aviation advanced to a level where aircraft increasingly have proved their mettle both in reliability and safety, that we need to hear of reports surrounding the missing AirAsia Flight QZ8501 operated by an Airbus A320-200 on the Surabaya–Singapore route.
Given what we have, and in the absence of the CFP (Computer Flight Plan), 30 minutes into flight typically indicates that the aircraft did reach, or was almost close to the Top of Climb (TOC), or its expected cruising altitude, based on a conservative 2,000ft rate of climb.
As pilots flying in those regions are specifically tested to fly in regional airspace conditions with an instructor, under conditions such as heavy clouds, weather, traffic and winds, despite having the best weather radar installed on the aircraft, common practice is to fly around weather rather than above it. With 157 passengers on board, it clearly appears that the aircraft was heavy and the fuel uplifted was not entirely burnt to ease a climb action.
In the unfortunate event of entering a cumulonimbus cloud, or thunderstorm at flight levels between FL 310 to 380 (31,000ft to 38,000ft), it is common to see heavy updrafts and downdrafts, icing on control surfaces, which can freeze corrective pilot actions, lightening strikes on the aircraft, which can upset onboard computers, aggressive aircraft maneuvers and the aircraft to dramatically lose altitude in excess of 5,000ft per minute.
As part of the standard training programme and schedules, nearly all airline pilots spend more time learning abnormal procedures and are time and again taught in the simulator how to recover the aircraft and bring it to stable flight. Standard recovery steps as part of training all pilots usually is the rule of “Aviate-Navigate-Communicate” which in simple language means:
1. Aviate - Fly the aircraft to gain control first.
2. Navigate - If control is gained and established, understand and locate your position, to report your position.
3. Communicate - If the situation gets worse, communicate a distress message to ATC, or a broadcast to other aircraft in the region, alerting of your intention, action and present situation. Pilots are also taught to send distress level initiate messages such as:
a. Pan-Pan-Pan - Aircraft getting into a potentially damaging situation and is declaring the first level of emergency, while suggesting the aircraft “might” need support and assistance.
b. Mayday-Mayday-Mayday - Declaring a complete state of emergency, aircraft is in distress, aircraft needs immediate support and assistance.
With a sea mass that spans nearly 2,000 islands, Indonesia maintains and operates one the region’s most formidable search and rescue operations, backed with a well-structured coast guard, maritime surveillance and modern coastal petrol and rescue aircraft and helicopter fleet.
In the unfortunate event of AirAsia Flight QZ8501 crashing into the sea, it does become clear that at least one of the three emergency locator transmitters broadcasting on the universal emergency should have activated, given the search party improved action time to reach the downed aircraft.
Latest reports suggest that neither the last known radar position is known, nor so far there seems to be any reports of anyone of the three emergency locator transmitter’s triggering off. What seems to be extremely strange and did catch my attention is that the sea over which the aircraft was reported missing has a maximum depth of 100 to 200 metres; and in shallow waters as those, it certainly does make identifying the aircraft easier. The first step as part of an aircraft plunging into the sea is the deployment of all four doors slides which double as life rafts plus the overwing floation rafts.
If there would have been an impact, we certainly would have seen floatable debris as paper, cloth, rubber parts, life rafts, plastic parts and specifically designed floatable parts such as the tail or the nose cone of the aircraft. Clearly that does not seem to be reported so far.
At this stage, we should not speculate on any relation between AirAsia Flight QZ8501 and the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 as it is crucial that the Search and Rescue (SAR) efforts continue till the aircraft is found.
Although the two events may seem vaguely similar, with the case of AirAsia Flight QZ8501, a clear intent to request a higher flight level due to weather has been established, suggesting the aircraft was in contact with ATC.
The focus now shifts to Indonesian Air Traffic Control, the director general of Civil Aviation Indonesia and SAR Agency to make public and share vital information surrounding the aircraft before it lost contact and dropped off the en route radars.
Based on our analysis, we will like to point out that the region in which the aircraft was flying in is extremely busy and is well covered by both Secondly Surveillance Radar’s as well as Primary Surveillance Radars, operated by local Air Defence Forces. Be that as it may, I will not like to rule out any possible action of the aircraft slipping under radar coverage in light of lack of evidence and access to ATC tapes and radar video logs.
AirAsia Indonesia is a franchise operation of AirAsia Malaysia and the affected Air Operator Certificate(AOC) is issued by the Indonesian DGCA. Given that the AOC in question is operating under a Brand Franchise Agreement of AirAsia, it becomes critical and relevant of the franchise and brand owner to maintain a constant and consistent audits, operation reviews, safety oversight supervision, frequent training to ensure compliance of airline operating standards are not just met with Indonesian Standards, but also with the highest possible global requirements in safety and oversight.
CommentI maintain the view that air transport today, is, and will continue to be the safest method of travel. Any adverse incident and event affecting the safe operation of aircraft can strike almost anywhere and at anytime and it’s no mystery why the aviation industry spends nearly $6 billion dollars each year to ensure adequate pre-emptive warnings are determined to ensure aircraft fly safer and safety is not compromised in anyway.
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