POINT BLANK Is there a Modi factor in the residual state of Andhra Pradesh, comprising Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra, which goes to polls on May 7th? To check the facts for myself, I chose to visit Madanapalle in the Rayalaseema region, which was part of Modi’s itinerary on May First. I had indulged in a similar exercise in Tamil Nadu, when I attended a rally in Krishnagiri, addressed by Narendra Modi, the Gujarat Chief Minister and the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate. Unlike TN where the BJP is in alliance with small parties, here, in AP, it has tied up with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a regional giant. Both Seemandhra and Telengana are having simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and to their respective state assemblies.
Like I usually do to gauge the public mood, I travelled by bus. My fellow passenger was a retired school teacher. “The mood is distinctly pro-Modi, especially among the young and the educated. People are desperate for a change,” he said. Halfway through, he got down, and the seat was taken up by a burqa-clad girl. She was a Biotech student and quite friendly. Was she politically savvy? “No, we don’t have a TV at home, and I haven’t stepped into a cinema hall since birth.” Theirs was an orthodox Muslim family, very religious. “Whom will you vote for, uncle?” she asked. I said it was a secret, nevertheless, revealed it. I asked her the same question. “No, I don’t have the vote,” she replied, cleverly.
Around 9.15 a.m., we reached Madanapalle. There seemed to be no evidence in the town of the big event. No posters, no flexi-boards, no town-crier. I asked a policeman for directions and he said the meeting was on the Bangalore highway. I walked some distance, before taking a share-auto. As we neared the maidan, I found there were hardly any buses or trucks transporting the faithful to the ground. Instead, I saw people walking towards it from all directions. BJP caps and scarves were being given away free on the sidewalk. It was 9.45 a.m., fifteen minutes beyond the scheduled start of the programme.
There were three long queues in front of the maidan. I took the middle one, but the going was too slow. Periodically, people, unused to any kind of discipline, would barge into one of the queues. The policemen would pull them out, but they would be back again. It took me about 30 minutes to reach the metal detector. Wiser by the Krishnagiri experience, I carried no bag, but my water-bottle was confiscated. Entry into the covered enclosure too was strict. Irritated policemen closed one entry after another, as they found the crowd surging towards them. Truth be told, I still can’t remember how I gained entry into the enclosure.
MLA aspirants were holding the stage, reminding the audience on why they should vote for the BJP-TDP combine. Around 11 a.m. a helicopter whirred over the enclosure, sending the audience into a tizzy. It turned out to be a decoy. Ms. D. Purandeshwari, the BJP candidate from Rajampet to the Lok Sabha, took the mike. She is the daughter of the late matinee idol, NTR, the founder of the TDP. She was in the Congress and was a union minister. She was part of the huge exodus of Seemandhra leaders and cadres from the Congress, after the party self-destructed itself on the Telengana issue. She joined the BJP and was immediately rewarded with an MP seat. Rajampet is part of the Rayalaseema region, the bastion of the YSR Congress.
Another helicopter flew in around 11.30, and this time it was the leaders, fresh from a visit to the celebrated temples in Tirumala and Srikalahasti. I sat next to a giant TV screen and saw Modi, TDP supremo, Chandrababu Naidu, and the current darling of the NDA in AP, Pawan Kalyan, the popular Telugu films star, walk up to the dais. By now the huge enclosure was full, with more people struggling to get in. There was a mild lathi-charge too. A BJP functionary then told the police to allow people in freely. A massive crowd surged in on all sides. It was gross interference with the security apparatus; just that morning, we were told, two bombs had gone off on a train in Chennai Central, killing one and injuring many.
Pawan Kalyan spoke to rapturous ovation from his fans. He worked up the crowd nicely, condemning Jaganmohan Reddy and KCR. He said he would not attack local Congressmen, including K. Chiranjeevi, his brother and union minister. “Their views were ignored by the party high command,” he said, referring to the creation of the separate state of Telengana. I am not sure whether it was due to the crowd surge, but halfway through his speech, the giant LEDs conked. And, as in Krishnagiri, people climbed over the chairs for a better view. Pawan’s fans began to leave, as soon as he concluded his speech. Speaking next, Naidu dwelt on the sanctity of the alliance. He pointed out that rebel candidates had been expelled from the party.
Modi asked the people whether they wanted a “scam Andhra or a scheme Andhra,” in a veiled reference to the corruption cases against Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, leader of the YSR Congress. He invoked Telugu pride, stating that the Congress had made it a habit to insult Telugus. Like at most of his meetings, he had done his homework well and referred to local problems. Madanapalle is part of the tomato belt, and farmers periodically suffer when prices plunge. He spoke about how tomatoes could be processed, to add value to their produce.
The speeches over, the leaders flew away, an hour after they arrived. I made my way to the highway. It was a sea of heads, as far as the eye could see. Traffic was stranded for miles. A young man was telling his friend about a one lakh-strong crowd. I put it at half that number. “Is it a mobilized crowd?” I asked, in jest. “Would people walk in this hot sun, if they had been mobilized?” the guy countered, sneeringly.
The last time I attended a mammoth meeting, where people had not been bussed in, was way back in 1972, when the late MGR launched his AIADMK (then ADMK) in Tamil Nadu. The DMK was in power then, and M. Karunanidhi was the CM. The government banned transport of people by trucks on the eve of the meeting, and, allegedly, threatened to cancel the permits of omnibus owners who lent their buses to MGR’s fans. Yet, the Marina, in the then Madras, was a sea of humanity when he launched his party that night.
On this blazing summer afternoon, I couldn’t buy a glass of juice from a Bihari vendor, despite waiting for 15 minutes. I rejoined the sea of humanity, but it was slow-going. I dived into a small eatery, in a side lane, where I had breakfast that morning. Could give me time till the crowd dispersed, I thought. I was right. Twenty minutes later, the crowd had dissipated. I made my way to the bus station, found a bus and a seat. Sat next to a guy who said he was a maths lecturer in a private college, in Anantapur, about 200 kms away. He had come all the way to hear Modi.
“The youth are for Modi, in my college and outside,” he said. How did he feel about the political situation in AP? “TDP will win.” But all opinion polls a couple of months backs were showing Jagan winning easily. “Yes, he would have won, if he were still in jail. He had a lot of sympathy then. That is gone now. The BJP is not a big force here, but Modi is bringing in the votes of the younger generation.” “Providing incremental value?” I asked, using a mathematical simile. “Exactly. And the BJP will win a few seats it would have never won had it gone alone.
“It will also benefit by cross-voting?” Cross-voting! “Yes,” he replied. What he meant was that even people, who would vote for the YSR Congress to the state assembly, would vote for the BJP Lok Sabha candidate. “The Jai Samaikandhra Party (JSP) is openly asking its voters to do so,” he added. The JSP was floated by N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, the last CM of united AP. The BJP is contesting in four of the 25 seats in AP, while the TDP is fighting in the rest.
Naidu is a weather vane, in other words, a practical politician. After the 2004 debacle, he walked away from the NDA, blaming it for his defeat. However, the late YSR pointed out, rightly, that the TDP won in 1999, riding on the Vajpayee wave, after the Kargil victory. The TDP forged an alliance with the left and remained together, until recently. In December 2012, when Modi’s office tried to invite him for the CM’s swearing-in ceremony, they got his brother-in-law and movie star, N. Balakrishna, instead. Balakrishna, NTR’s son, accepted the invitation and hastened to the airport. The left leaders, meanwhile, got in touch with Naidu, and Balakrishna was literally pulled out of the plane, just as it was about to take off.
But that was about 16 months ago. In 2014, Naidu sensed the way the wind was blowing and surfaced at a Modi rally in UP, in February. Upcountry writers have been writing about how the BJP badly needed the TDP. Not quite true. Naidu has made all kinds of promises to the people to regain power. His party has been out of power for ten years. Another five years out in the cold, and Naidu would have found it difficult to hold on to his flock. He not only needs an ally to win the elections, but also a friendly centre to help him out with funds. The YSR Congress too was looking for an alliance with the BJP. But the BJP had worked with the TDP before and felt more comfortable working with it. After all, the TDP did not dump the BJP midway. That way, Naidu is more dependable than a Jaya or a Mamata. Today, Modi sings in praise of Naidu, almost making him blush. Naidu, in turn, gushingly reciprocates.
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