ELECTION ANALYSIS Polling ended in the five-phased elections in the south on May 7th, and we would know the results, with a degree of certainty on May 12th, when the exit poll results would be out, and with certainty on the 16th, when the votes are counted. However, you can say with a good deal of accuracy—barring a miracle, like tampering of EVMs on a massive scale—that the Congress is in for a bashing in 2014.
Paradoxically, this bash-up could happen, unlike in the north and the west, without even the so-called Modi-wave touching the shores of the south. And if the wave breaches the seawalls, the Congress’ plight could be worse.
Congress and its allies won 82 of the 131 seats at stake in the south in 2009. If opinion polls are any indicator, the UPA would be hard put to retain even one-third that figure. For it to reach the half-way mark, it has to do exceedingly well in the Telengana region of Andhra Pradesh, the reason why it split the state.
Kerala was the first to vote in the south, on Tenth of April. The voting percentage was marginally higher this time, up from 73.37, in 2009, to 73.8. The UDF, of which the Congress is a constituent, won 16 of the 20 seats in 2009. For that to take place in 2014, the BJP’s vote-share has to go up significantly, without winning a seat. If that happens, the worst hit would be the left, which traditionally thrives on the Hindu vote. The minorities, who constitute 45 per cent of the population, are expected to stay with the UDF.
Polling took place on the 17th of April in Karnataka. The voting percentage was significantly higher at 67.28, against 58.81, in 2009. The BJP did exceedingly well in 2009, bagging 19 of the 28 seats, the Congress picking up six and the JD-S three. Opinion polls are divided about the outcome in 2004. While some predict that the BJP would win a majority of the seats, others say that the Congress would get 14 to 15. Only a Modi-wave can reverse the trend for the BJP, which did badly in the 2013 Assembly elections. The Congress won comfortably then.
Tamil Nadu went to the polls on 24th of April. So did Pondicherry for its lone seat. The voting percentage was 73.67 in 2014, against 72.98 last time. In 2009, the DMK and the Congress, in alliance, won 18 and eight respectively of the total of 39 seats. The AIADMK won nine, while the other four were picked up by small parties. Normally, it is said that the state is a psephologist’s nightmare, as the Tamils try to keep their options as secretive as possible. The situation is made worse this time, with the two big Dravidian parties, the AIADMK and the DMK, not seeking any alliances with the national parties. The BJP has tried to make the best of this situation by cobbling together an alliance with smaller parties, like Vijayakant’s DMDK, Vaiko’s MDMK, the PMK, and an assortment of one-man parties. The alliance is banking heavily on the Modi factor to break the four-decade old grip of the AIADMK and the DMK on the Tamil Nadu electorate.
During these decades, the Congress hand was sought by the AIADMK and the DMK, in the belief that the incremental votes the national party brought was enough for their success. The party has fallen on such hard times that the two Dravidian parties did not deign to touch it with a barge-pole this time. The UPA’s poor performance at the centre, coupled with the Sri Lankan Tamil factor, has rendered the Congress almost a non-entity this time. Its only hope lies in Kanniyakumari, the Christian-dominated district. Ms Sonia Gandhi’s lone rally in TN was held here, and, by all accounts, it was a grand success. The BJP’s state president, Pon Radhakrishnan, is in the fray here. The AIADMK, the DMK and the CPI-M have fielded Christian candidates, while Mr. S.P. Udayakumar, the church-back anti-nuclear activist, is the AAP candidate. Mr. H. Vasanthakumar, a prominent businessman, is the Congress candidate. If the Christians vote strategically—as they usually do—to defeat the BJP, Mr. Vasanthakumar should win, despite being a Hindu.
In Pondicherry, the Congress candidate is Mr. V. Narayanasamy, the Minister for State in the Prime Minister’s Office. He faces a formidable challenge from the BJP-backed candidate, Mr. R. Radhakrishnan, the former speaker of the Puducherry Assembly. Mr. Radhakrishnan is the candidate of the ruling All India NR Congress (AINRC).
We finally come to Andhra Pradesh, which gave the Congress a whopping 33 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in 2009. The state, as I mentioned earlier, was bifurcated on the eve of polls, with the Congress’ eyes solely on the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the Telengana region, which went to polls on April 30th. Here again, the Congress’ calculations could not have gone more wrong. It imagined that the TRS would come on all fours, begging for an alliance, if not an outright merger. Mr. K. Chandrasekhara Rao, the TRS leader, is no pushover. He knew the Congress was in a bad shape throughout the country. Any merger or alliance with it would render him a persona non grata with the next government. He made the Congress believe that he would merge the TRS with it, ensured the Telengana bill was passed in parliament, and then led it down the garden-path.
If the Congress bags even seven or eight seats in the Telengana region, it should be extremely happy. It is locked in multi-cornered contests with the TRS and the BJP-TDP combine. Polling here too was on the high side, with 72 per cent voting this time, against 67.71 per cent in 2009.
The Congress’ fortunes are by far the worst in the Coastal districts and Rayalaseema, the Seemandhra duo that constitutes the residual state of AP. “Show me the money,” asked Congressmen, reports said, when they were asked by the high command to contest the polls. The high command, however, told them that money would be given only to candidates with a winning chance. Probably one such lucky person was the Congress candidate from Tirupati, Mr. Chinta Mohan, a six-time MP. The popular Telugu daily, Eenadu, released a series of pictures, showing him address a crowd. A dozen Sumos, packed with his supporters, would go before his convoy started, disgorge their passengers at a spot, where Mr. Mohan would arrive, deliver his speech and leave. The crowd would then be served refreshments at a nearby watering-hole before being driven to the next venue.
Pity Ms. Sonia Gandhi, who was not given such imaginative support, when she addressed her only meeting in AP. Guntur was the selected town. It has a significant Christian population, though not to the extent as in Kanniyakumari in TN. Yet, only 7,000 people turned up for the rally. Newspapers prominently displayed photographs of the rally, focusing on the empty chairs. Mr. K. Chiranjeevi was the Congress’ sole torch-bearer this time. The popular film star founded the Praja Rajya Party before the 2009 elections, won 18 seats, and then merged it with the Congress. How long he will stay with the party after its expected debacle is a debatable point.
Chiranjeevi’s younger brother, Pawan Kalyan, another popular Telugu star, recently founded the Jana Sena, but the party did not contest the elections. Instead, he campaigned vigorously for the BJP-TDP combine, saying that he wants Mr. Narendra Modi to be PM. Initially, he did not back the TDP, but relented, after Mr. Chandrababu Naidu met him and sought his support. The BJP-TDP combine is banking on his charisma, besides the Modi factor, to prevail over the YSR Congress, founded by Mr. Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy. Mr. Reddy is the son of the late Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, the former CM, whose death in 2009 led to the chain of events that ultimately resulted in the formation of a separate Telengana state.
It is a battle royal between the two parties, with the Congress and the Jai Samaikandhra Party of the Mr. N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, the last CM of united AP, bringing up the rear. Voter turn-out in Seemandhra, which went to polls on May 7th, the last phase in the south, was around 80 per cent, against 76 per cent in 2009. The high turnout could be due to the fact that simultaneous elections to the Assembly were held in all three regions.
The YSR Congress had swept the by-elections that were held in the region in June 2012, winning 15 of the 17 seats to the state assembly and the Lok Sabha seat from Nellore. That was nearly two years ago, and much water has flown under the bridge since. Opinion polls are divided on the outcome, with some favouring the BJP-TDP combine and some the YSR Congress. But we don’t have to wait for long to find out the strength of these parties. The reality is only a week away.
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