ANALYSIS The Lok Sabha elections 2014 is almost half-way over, with 122 seats having gone to the polls across the country today. A feature of this election that makes this year's polls stand out is the unprecedented voter turnout. For the seats that have gone to polls till now, an average increase of 10% voter turnout has been reported.
For the BJP this is a 'Narendra Modi wave'. Critics of the UPA suggest that such a high turnout will only be natural against the incumbent government that has been embroiled in many scams, blamed for high inflation and policy paralysis.
However, while there plenty of constituencies that are still to vote, is it too early to call it a wave that has swept the electorate? "Half way down the mark, a 10% increase is a very large increase in turnout. This might may be a record increase in terms of turnout. Such a phenomenon always goes against the incumbent.
It is if you will, bad news for the incumbent and good news for the BJP," Chairman of Oxus investments, Surjeet Bhalla, during a election debate said. But is this wave only manufactured hype ? Political editor of The Telegraph, Manini Chattejee said, "Unlike other waves in the past, the waves have always taken us by surprise be it AAP or NTR because they are silent.
This has been a very vocal wave, but the end result might be the same. The hype around it is huge and it continues." But for Bhalla, the high turnout is a definite sign of a political wave. Bhalla aruged, "Since 1989 we have had the eighth election and no single party has gone above 224 seats. And if opinion polls are to be believed, then 220-234 seats are likely for the BJP. If that does not constitute a wave, then I don't know what is."
But not all are convinced it will be the BJP that benefits the most from this high turnout. "It is a wave when it is a sweep in a favour of a party or a combine. The BJP seems to be doing well in some pockets, but there are other places where it is doing only marginally well," Lokniti's Sandip Shastri said. According to Shastri, the clear demarcation in stands between the two parties is what is fuelling the high turnout.
"The nature of competition is clear, two sides of the contest have taken clear positions. This has given greater interest in voters to cast their votes," he said. He pointed out that a high turnout didn't always mean the opposition would win. "There is no proof that an increase in voter turnout is a message for change. Sometimes higher voter turnout has been for the incumbent.
We may be making a wrong assumption that it is going all to the BJP. It is simply sign of more sharp, clear contest. But in the context of the 2014 elections we have seen the attitude of voters has been against the UPA. But the beneficiaries also could also be for regional players," Shastri said. Meanwhile, this time around there is a high number of first time voters and youth who are voting for change.
When asked about this phenomenon, Chatterjee said, "There is no doubt the BJP has an edge in this election. More than Modi what will help the BJP is their alliances in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It is a long drawn out election it is not minorities against Modi, there are other factors as well." "All the evidence suggests a 290 plus figure for the NDA," said Bhalla, while Shastri said, "There has not been much change since the last pre-poll survey and I will stick the the numbers in the poll that favour the BJP."
As the polls progress, the Congress has gone all guns blazing against the BJP. Sonia Gandhi was seen in an unusual address to the nation canvassing for her party. Rahul Gandhi too has been attacking Modi at every opportunity. To top it off, P Chidambaram today slammed the BJP's prime ministerial candidate calling him an 'encounter CM'.
This points to the clear shift in Congress' strategy, which the parties critics have termed as desperate. Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala continued to defend his party and said that it would prove all the pre-poll surveys wrong, like in the past. "Between 2004-2009 similar increase was seen in voting percentages, but the UPA was voted to power.
Lets not undermine the majesty and intelligence of the voter. As far as Modi and the BJP are concerned they have lost the momentum. A venomous agenda has been unleashed by Amit Shah, Subramanian Swamy and Uma Bharti, who have gone for the jugular," he said. "Our strategy is simple. We are stating the fact for people to judge. The party is pointing out the various dangers of voting a leader who is polarising the country on communal lines.
His track record of destruction speaks for himself," Surjewallah added. While the Congress may be desperate, the BJP seems to have become complacent with leaders already speaking of the portfolios they want. BJP spokesperson Sambit Patra said, "Unlike the Congress, the BJP is a cadre based party, and such a party has no space for relaxation and the party structure advises you not to be complacent. Declaring the truth does not mean we are complacent."
"Look at the desperation and depreciation of the one who is going to be hit by the wave. On one side Sonia bought air time to give out her ideas and on the other Modi gave an interview that media wanted to buy. Now we know who the country wants to listen to," Patra said. Pointing out BJP's marketing acumen, Chatterjee said, "The BJP has been good at cracking up the hype machine and the Congress has been poor at that.
They have known how to work the media. As a result is that some people see it as wonderful news, equally there are a lot of people who are disturbed by the divisive image of Modi also by the personality cult."
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