ELECTION ANALYSIS It’s not new for a political leader of national stature to contest from two seats. Especially, when the leader is projected as prime ministerial candidate, then contesting from two seats should be considered a very normal phenomena, and politically it’s a wise decision. But the question that caught everybody’s attention is that why Benares was picked as contesting seat for Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP. Many people in Benares think that after winning, Modi would choose to retain his Vadodara seat from Gujarat, his home land and he would hardly come back to the city of temples to serve its people.
The BJP parliamentary board could have chosen any safe seat from any state of North or Central India knowing the fact that southern states do not offer any super secure place for the saffron party because of its poor base in the Deccan land. From North and Central India, the BJP had to choose a seat from a big state because smaller states rarely provide a bigger electoral battle landscape. Therefore, in effect, the option was to choose a seat from states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Bihar. In this list, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh were not very interesting options because both these states are ruled by the BJP. From these two states, the BJP would possibly win maximum number of seats thanks to the presence of leaders like Shivraj Singh Chauhan in MP and Vasundhara in Rajasthan. So fielding Modi from these two states could have been not a very smart political decision. By putting Modi in one of these two states might create in a long run a possible confrontation with the chief ministers of the states. So, MP and Rajasthan could not be viable options. And, Punjab, a Sikh state, does not offer a genuine option for a leader who is a mascot for Hindutva politics. Therefore, it remained only UP and Bihar. The latter has two stalwarts, Nitish and Lalu who perhaps could not have been able to cause any big damage to Modi’s possible victory in the state but they would have forced him to dissipate a great amount of his energy in countering the vicious attack posed by the ‘secular’ brigade. So, putting Modi in Bihar would have been a less rational choice for him and a less productive outcome for the party as well.
It remained only one state on the table which was Uttar Pradesh that had all the necessary ingredients to set the political theatre for the saffron hero of the country. The state of UP has always been known for its caste and religion based politics. After selecting UP as target state, the question was which constituency would be picked that could match the Image of Modi. Thus, the city of Kashi came up as the most obvious choice for the battle.
Benares enjoys a special place of affection in the hearts of billions of Hindus living in all corners of the world. Someone, who has been projected as mascot of Hindutva, if gets elected by the people of that city will receive an automatic validation and recognition by religious and emotional Hindus. Though that’s not a rational way of putting a stamp over the legitimacy of a right wing leader who has been painted as poster boy of divisive politics by the left liberals and a large section of media. But the fact remains that electoral battle in India has mostly been found to be an outcome of emotional surge of people.
Benares has been since the era of independence movement a fountain head of right wing Hindutva politics where fiery slogan of ‘Hindi, Hindu and Hindustan’ was aired by great nationalist leader, Pt. Madan Mohan Malviya. It has been observed that unlike other democracies of the world, Indians especially the urban constituencies shy away from giving their opinion on political issues whereas the people of Benares are surprisingly known to be vocal on various local, political issues. They love to debate any such issues at a tea shop. They attach a lot of emotional attachment to emotional ideas such as their city being known as Lord Shiva’s land where poets like Kabir and Tulsi Das lived.
Apart from Benares being a politically active zone of central-eastern India, it does have a strategic importance too.
If the BJP wins sufficient seats in on-going parliamentary elections in UP under the influence of Modi wave, then that performance will consolidate the party’s fortune in a state where it has been taking serious beating at the hands of regional parties like BSP and SP. Political pundits tell us that a national party which rules Lucknow tends to have a greater chance to rule and remain in power in Delhi as well. The saffron party, apart from eyeing the ambitious objective of forming government in UP, wants to enter into Bihar as well. After coming to power in Delhi, the next milestone for Modi and the party will be to defeat Nitish in the next assembly elections. The central leadership has already indicated that Shah Nawaz Hussein could be the future chief ministerial candidate for Bihar. The alliance with the LJP is expected to play a constructive role in sidelining the JDU and RJD in the next state assembly elections.
Benares seems to bring an easy victory for Modi. Some skeptics in the city think that after winning, Modi will go back to Delhi, and will retain only his Vadodara seat. This seems unlikely but politics is a game of possibilities. If his party does not get the required number of seats, the allies will have to be wooed; if the alliance partners do not accept the name of Modi as prime minister then the entire NDA coalition might have to look for another face which should be acceptable to all constituent parties. Under that political compulsion, Modi may think of going back to his home state, and would consolidate his base by retaining his Vadodara seat, but this scenario is less likely to happen.
Since its existence, Indian democracy has never witnessed an aggressive, right wing leader like Modi taking centre stage. Atal represented a tolerant face of right wing brigade which appealed to people more centrist in ideas. Advani earlier positioned himself as a hardliner, and then attempted to soften his image with his statement on Jinnah to become a more inclusive and acceptable face. Whereas Modi, since his ascendance to power in Gujarat till today, represents a blunt, aggressive and unapologetic face of right-wing ideology which promises a decisive leadership to the country. Similarly Benares as a city symbolizes a space that is known for its aggressive, Hindutva political thought and action. In other words, the city reflects the tone and tenor of Modi brand politics: decisive leadership and saffron ideology.
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