ELECTIONS SCENARIO At Durgapur one road leads to Amethi and another to Sultanpur. These are the two constituencies from which two cousins, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and BJP general secretary Varun Gandhi, are contesting. Durgapur lies in Amethi but local residents here would like to be a part of Sultanpur and even have a banner up whose symbolism can't be missed.
The banner has been put up on behalf of 36 gram sabhas and calls for the boycotting of polls in the area on 7 May. The gram sabhas are demanding that the region must be in the Sultanpur district. The road leading to Amethi is filled with potholes and the ride is bumpy. Though the road leading to Sultanpur is no better, the issue for locals is more than just roads.
A few kilometres ahead at Piparpur, a group of locals are furiously debating over Rahul Gandhi’s prospects in these elections. Rahul has never visited this part of the Amethi constituency, they claim.
"Jab tak Gandhi parivar ko thokar nahi lagega tab tak woh janata ki naraaz bhawna nahi samjhenge. Unko iss baar ek thokar lagna zaroori hai (The Gandhi family will not understand how upset the people here are until they get hurt in the election. They must experience it this time)," Samar Bahadur Singh, a resident of the area, said. Another voter, Onkar Nath Mishra said, "There is too much of popular resentment against him."
However, some believe that Rahul Gandhi remains on safe ground. "I agree some people are angry. But it is because of the Gandhi family that Amethi has an international profile. The world over people know this place. How can he lose?” another resident, Javed, said. His comment immediately sparked a debate in the group about the candidates in the fray in this election, with some shouting in favour of the AAP's Kumar Vishwas and others in favour of the BJP's Smriti Irani.
The group seemed to agree that Rahul would win this election but for the first time the Congress Vice President and consequently the entire Gandhi family was facing a challenge. The impression that one gets after travelling through the region is that Rahul may win but with a substantially reduced margin compared to what he managed in the 2004 and 2009 elections that he contested.
The Congress Vice President should perhaps be very thankful to the Samajwadi Party for extending a politically significant “courtesy” of not putting up a candidate against him. This has ensured that there is no challenger for the Muslim and Yadav community votes. If there had been a Samajwadi Party candidate this election could have been a really close call for Rahul.
Though some Yadav community votes could go to the BJP but left without any other option, most of the votes of these two communities should go to Rahul. BSP chief Mayawati also isn't likely to campaign in the area for the BSP candidate. "Whatever margin he (Rahul) will ultimately have will be because of SP’s tacit support and the apparent Muslim consolidation against Narendra Modi," a Congress worker, who did not wish to be named, said.
Meanwhile in Sultanpur, Varun is fighting elections from there for the first time and has the advantage of being a new face. He does not have any baggage from the past and only has to carry the burden of expectations for the future. Rohit Singh in Bhagipur says the fact that he won in Pilibhit with huge margin and has come to Pilibhit is working positive for him. Three things are working in Varun's favour : the first, his landing in Sultanpur has given a high profile to the constituency, which it has craved for long.
Despite being strategically located and earlier being the district headquarters for parts of the Amethi parliamentary constituency it suffers from neglect and political apathy. Residents say he hope that the constituency will be as significant as neighbouring Amethi and Raebareli. The second thing in his favour is that people of the area, particularly the older residents, are nostalgic about his father Sanjay Gandhi.
They cite several projects that he brought to the area including the ones in Jagdishpur, which now form part of Amethi. Somnath Rahi, a resident Lambhua is one such person. "There are so many like me," he said. In Sadarpur village, a family which has supported the Congress for generations has switched loyalties to BJP for one simple reason – a family elder had taken a picture with Sanjay Gandhi.
A number of Congress workers and leaders are switching loyalties. Former MP Babu Ram Singh, Munna Mishra, son of former chief minister Sripat Mishra, and Munna Singh are some of them. The run up to the election presents an opportunity for Varun to undergo an image makeover and he seems to be trying his best to do it. In his speeches he talks about holistic inclusive development, which will not distinguish between castes and communities.
It’s a different matter that Muslims are yet not buying his argument in Lambhua, but then Muslims at large are not voting for the BJP in any other constituency in UP. The third factor in his favour, is that the winds of change are in any case in favour of the BJP. He may not talk much about his party’s Prime Ministerial candidate, but the “Modi leher” is certainly making it easier for Varun.
The negative perception of sitting Congress MP Sanjay Singh is coming as a great help to Varun. Singh has been given a Rajya Sabha berth, apparently at the insistence of Priyanka Gandhi. His wife Rani Amita Singh is contesting as a Congress candidate. Singh didn’t care for the constituency and in turn Sultanpur voters aren't too concerned about his wife Amita. The Samajwadi Party candidate Shakil Ahmed and Pawan Pandey of BSP, too seem to be lagging.
With the two estranged cousins fight from neighbouring constituencies, the contest has suddenly become interesting. Victory for both of them is virtually ensured, but it is now extremely important whose victory margin is greater. The challenge for Rahul's team is two fold -- that his victory margin of three lakh plus is not reduced, and second, even if the margin does go down it shouldn't be lower than Varun's in Sultanpur, a Congress worker said on condition of anonymity.
Priyanka Gandhi’s surprise public criticism of Varun has only increased the buzz around the two campaigns. The fact that Priyanka took a day off from Raebareli to campaign in Amethi on Saturday to defend her brother’s track record. She was earlier expected to come to the constituency only after polling in Raebareli ended on 30 April.
The fact that she launched a belligerent attack against BJP’s Smriti Irani is perhaps an indicator of the family’s realisation that they can't take this election for granted. Congress president Sonia Gandhi too has come to campaign for Rahul, something that hasn't happened in the past decade. So far, thanks rival parties extending courtesies by either fielding weak candidates or not fielding any at all the Gandhi family has always had a cake walk in Amethi.
It was the 2010 assembly elections that gave them a jolt. Priyanka was stationed in the constituency for over a fortnight but her charm didn’t work. Congress lost all seven seats in Raebareli and three out of five in Amethi. Priyanka is being tested here and she is doing everything to protect her mother, brother and husband. The BJP’s latest attack on her husband Robert Vadra, the with release of a 'Damad Shri' (son-in-law) CD and booklet, has put tremendous strain on the aura that surrounds the family.
Aam Aadmi Party’s Kumar Vishwas has had a good campaign. His constant travelling and sharp oratory has allowed people to vent their resentment against Rahul’s cronies, and even Rahul. “There is a Raksha Bandhan of different kind in where sister has to don the mantle to protect her brother. And Sonia Gandhi too had to come down here in Amethi to give a protective cover,” he said during a rally, to applause. Vishwas uses poetry in his speeches to make an impact and gets warm applause from those who stand to hear him.
"If BJP had not sent Smriti Irani to eat into his votes, Vishwas would have won," Harish Mishra, an AAP worker who has come for Dubai to assist Vishwas in the campaign, said. The BJP on the other hand is tapping into its organisational support in the constituency. Smiriti Irani has been successful in creating a buzz around herself and the BJP.
Former party president Nitin Gadkari was here on Sunday to campaign for her and other leaders were also there to boost her campaign. The key question, which everyone is asking is whether Modi will come to Amethi to campaign. A potential date for a rally is 3 May and if it does happen, the impact of it would be most curiously watched.
A reduced margin would put Rahul's leadership credentials under strain and the clamour for Priyanka could only gain momentum in Congress. For Priyanka’s own future in politics it is supremely important that the family bastion is not breached by some upstart 'outsiders'.
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