SPECIAL REPORT Perhaps, it far is more difficult to predict the poll outcome in the yet-to-be established state of Telengana, which goes to polls on April 30th, than in the Seemandhra region. In the residual state of Andhra Pradesh, it is a straight fight, a week later, between the TDP-BJP combine and the YSR Congress, with the other contenders, like the Jai Samaikandhra party of former chief minister, N. Kiran kumar Reddy, and his parent-party, the Congress, being also-rans.
Telengana witnesses a three-way contest among the TRS, the TDP-BJP combine and the Congress, which thinks that it is on a strong wicket here, as the virtual creator of the new state.
Both the Congress and the TRS had asked people to vote for them, more out of gratitude than anything else. The Congress, especially, had sought votes, claiming credit for ramming through the Telengana bill in parliament. Not to be left behind, the BJP had gone about saying that the bill would not have been passed, if it had not cooperated with the Congress.
Forgotten amidst these claims and counter-claims is the fact that the mere creation of a state means nothing, if it is going to be rocked by political instability. Jharkhand, born out of the bifurcation of Bihar, is probably the best example of a good idea gone bad. Family politics, splits, desertions and short-lived governments have been the bane of Jharkhand. Telengana promises to follow in the footsteps of Jharkhand, if the present trends are an indicator.
The Congress aggressively pushed for the creation of a new state, with its eyes firmly fixed on the 17 seats to the Lok Sabha from the region. The party thought that, if it captured 120 to 150 seats all across India, it could cling to power, or keep the BJP out, by supporting a Third Front government. That dream seems to be now evaporating in thin air, along with its dream of winning 13 or 14 seats in Telengana.
It imagined that Mr. K. Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR), the TRS founder, would come to it, grovelling on his knees, out of sheer gratitude. KCR was almost a spent force, the people tired of his bandh politics. He had been led down the garden path by the late YSR, who took his support in the 2004 elections, promised him Telengana, and then royally ignored him, after becoming chief minister. In 2009, he allied with the BJP, but the alliance came a cropper. If he had gone to the electorate with empty hands, in 2014, he and his party would have been wiped out.
Luckily for him, the Congress latched on to the Telengana idea, under the impression that the region would compensate for the losses it would suffer in the residual AP. It now accuses KCR of betraying them. But the Congress had betrayed him earlier! Also, KCR is nobody’s stooge. If anything, he belongs to his family and the TRS belongs to the family. The Telengana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is no different from other family-run parties in the country. Why should it be otherwise? If a Priyanka Gandhi campaigns exclusively, in Rae Bareili and Amethi, for her mom and brother—other Congressmen be damned—and the media eats out of her hand, as if she were locked in a combat with Mr. Narendra Modi, why should KCR’s family loyalties be faulted?
Reports say that 15 of his family members are in the fray on the TRS ticket. Outrageous! No. Look at it positively. Only 15 of his family members are in the fray. Thank goodness! So what? Almost all the Congress contenders are the products of local dynasties. Either you are the son or daughter of an MLA or MP, or, sometimes, the grandchild of so and so. This is Andhra Pradesh, man: sorry, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh (the term Seemandhra is a euphemism for the regions of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra).
Strangely, after all the euphoria that accompanied the passing of the Telengana bill, Congressmen in the state are a sullen lot. They could still win a good number of seats, at least, to the state assembly, but the future is unpredictable. It has become more unpredictable, thanks to the utterances of Union Minister Jairam Ramesh, who imagines he is a sort of a go-between the Gandhi family and the people of Telengana. Proximity to members of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty makes him lord over elected members of the party; this when he has not fought even a local body election in his life. Such is the clout of the unelected coterie around the Gandhi family.
He announced the other day that only a Dalit would become the CM of the new state. As newsmen scurried to find out who the lucky person was, his boss, Mr. Rahul Gandhi, parachuted into the region to announce that a woman would be the CM. These announcements were made, even before a single vote had been cast. Non-Dalit Congress leaders, who had been waiting for the formation of a separate state and had fancied their chances of becoming CM, have become dispirited, and it was evident in the rallies addressed by mother and son. They were either not present, or, if they did, were an unenthusiastic lot.
If by a quirk of fate, the Congress comes to power in the state, you can be sure of political instability from Day One. If an insecure high-command, knocked out of its perch at the centre, seeks to impose its will on the newly-created state, you would have all the ingredients of a political pot-boiler for the next five years.
Would the situation be different if the TRS came to power? I don’t think so. The only glue that kept it from falling apart all these years was the prospect of the creation of Telengana, and a division of the spoils. KCR himself has said many a time that his party had a one-point agenda. With that agenda fulfilled, it could suffer the same fate as Jharkhand’s JMM, another family-run party. Splits and defections could be the natural outcome, with KCR going from party to party, asking them to support either him or his son/son-in-law/daughter as CM.
The BJP-TDP is the third contender in the elections. This is by no means a natural alliance, but one that was foisted by the BJP high command, Congress-style. Mr. G. Kishan Reddy, the BJP’s youthful Telengana unit president, who had all along fought for the creation of Telengana, was dead against an alliance with the TDP, which was ambivalent in its approach. But TDP supremo, N. Chandrababu Naidu, whose support the BJP sought in the Seemandhra region, was for a quid pro quo in Telengana. The alliance was born over the objections of the local BJP unit, which is fighting in 47 of the 119 Assembly seats in the region, and in eight of the 17 Lok Sabha seats.
The BJP is in it for the long haul. Its support base is bound to go up, if the Congress or the TRS forms a government, either jointly or separately, since both of them would placate the MIM, which draws its support solely from the Muslims of Old Hyderabad.
Popular film star, Pawan Kalyan, campaigned for the BJP-TDP alliance. He is the brother of Chiranjeevi, the former mega star, now in the Congress. Initially, Mr. Pawan Kalyan was reluctant to support the TDP. His campaign was centred round the slogan of Modi as PM. Mr. Naidu met him last week and convinced him that his party was part of the NDA, which was committed to making Mr. Modi the PM.
Observers say that people might vote for the BJP at the centre and for the TRS/Congress, at the state level. To counter the impression that the TRS is not a factor in parliamentary polls, KCR is contesting from Medak to the Lok Sabha, besides standing from Gajwel assembly constituency.
Considering all things, it can be said that, despite the long wait for Telengana, its creation was the easy part. Governance, stability and development may not be that easy.
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