How Election Is Making BJP A New Pivot Of Indian Politics?

By M H Ahssan | INNLIVE

SPECIAL REPORT With six major phases of polling still to go in the 2014 general elections, it would be foolhardy to start predicting the results at this stage. For people can still change their minds. But the overall trends have been so consistent for so long in predicting a BJP-led NDA victory, that it is difficult to visualise a major reversal from this stage. 

Three trends have been consistent over the last three months over many opinion polls: a steady and rising vote share for the NDA: a sharply rising prediction of seats; and a rising trend of new alliances for the BJP. At last count, the BJP had 26 parties in its front, four of them major ones (Akali Dal, Shiv Sena, TDP and LJP). 
Little wonder the latest INNLIVE poll held in the first week of April - one with the largest sample size and a two percent margin of error - gives the NDA nearly 35 percent of the popular vote and 275 seats. The NDA is gaining a majority on its own steam. Any extra ally is like money for jam.

This result, even if it were to be off by 20-25 seats, would still give the NDA a comfortable lead to seek two more allies and form a government. However, what this poll tells us is something more than just that Narendra Modi will head a BJP-led NDA government after 16 May. Unless invalidated by a completely bizarre reversal of fortunes, it seems a fundamental shift may be taking place in Indian politics. 

Here are the major takeouts, as I see them. First, the INNLIVE opinion poll establishes the BJP as the central pivot around which Indian politics will revolve in the medium term. We can’t say if this will endure – for that, Modi and BJP have to deliver - but till recently it was the Congress that occupied this pole position. Now the BJP does. 

It was evident in this election when all parties chose to attack Modi. When one party or one individual becomes the focus of everybody’s fears, it indicates a shift in the polity’s pivot. This is evident not only from the NDA’s seat count (NDA 275, of which BJP 226), but vote share. Even in the past, the BJP has obtained more seats than the Congress (1998, 1999) but this is the first time the BJP/NDA is surpassing the Congress/UPA in vote share. 

The NDA vote share has risen from 26.5 percent in 2009 to 30.1 percent in February this year, to 32.9 percent in March and 34.5 percent in April. The trend is clear – a rising BJP. The Congress (plus allies) decline has been equally secular, falling steadily from 33.2 percent in 2009 to 25.6 percent this April. At 34.5 percent, the BJP today is stronger than the Congress was in 2009. That’s why one should look at it as the new pole in Indian politics. 

In the near future, the BJP will be the party to beat, and the party to fight or ally with. Second, this poll also shows the spread of the BJP nationally. Till 2009, the BJP was a northern and western India party, with a pocket of influence in Karnataka. This time, thanks to making the right alliances, and also because of the Modi persona, the BJP is a factor both south of the Vindhyas and in the East. In Assam it is already a force, and so is it in Odisha. 

In Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, it is a viable alliance partner. It is only in the former Left bastions of Kerala and West Bengal that the BJP is stuck as a loner. But one thing is certain: the party is beginning to have a presence in these states, too, and one cannot rule out the possibility of the BJP playing a larger role when the existing fronts in these states are fighting a cliff-hanger. The issue is lack of leadership in these states – not lack of interest in the party. 

In fact, the UDF’s slippage in Kerala could partly be the result of the BJP eating into its votes. The UDF had the upper hand in February (with 13 seats projected in that opinion poll). Now it is down to eight. What we need to check if is this damage was self-inflicted or done partly by the BJP. Third, the BJP is now presented with the opportunity of expanding its social and community base if it comes to power in the centre. 

While the media tends to dismiss it as incapable of attracting the minorities or lower castes to its side, the fact is in all the western states and in Goa, it has transcended its upper caste Hindutva image. Today, even the minorities vote for it in some measure. In Gujarat, polarisation started reducing after the 2002 and 2007 elections. In 2012, it was the Muslim vote that made all the difference between a marginal victory and a comfortable one for Modi. 

Modi’s opponents in Gujarat were all former Hindutva stalwarts – and the Muslim vote enabled him to defeat them in the 2012 assembly elections. While it is true that 2014 is going to be an anti-Modi vote for the minorities, the next election will give both Modi and the minorities to rethink their equations. We can’t say anything with certainty right now, but I suspect that 2014 will mark a fundamental shift in the nation’s politics.