ELECTION ANALYSIS Heavy turnout was recorded in the second phase of polling in 11 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, with especially high turnout in Rampur, Moradabad, Nagina and Sambhal. Incidentally, Rampur, Moradabad and Sambhal are Muslim-dominated constituencies.
Election Commission figures put the turnout in Rampur at 69.32 percent, which is more than 14 per cent higher than 2009. Nagina witnessed 61.98 per cent polling while Moradabad recorded 61.22 per cent and Sambhal recorded 56.8 per cent polling.
Among other constituencies, Amroha recorded 52.12 per cent, Badaun 54.6 per cent, Aonla 56.8 per cent, Bareilly 60 per cent, Pilibhit 57.2, Shahjahanpur 55.5 per cent and Kheri 61.64 per cent. In Rampur and Moradabad, there was a rush by Muslims to cast their vote since the morning and it continued through the day despite the heat and a dust storm towards the evening.
Campaigning in all the constituencies has been marked by highly polarising speeches by all parties. Uttar Pradesh minister for urban development Mohammad Azam Khan along with Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Shah were in the centre of controversy with their objectionable speeches and the EC not only debarred them from further campaigning but also ordered registering FIRs against them.
This region is adjacent to Muzaffarnagar and adjoining areas that were affected by last year’s riots. Muzaffarnagar was among the ten constituencies that went to polls in the first phase on April 10. Muslims in these areas had been highly critical of the handling of the riots and rehabilitation of the riot victims, and it is felt that the resentment may reflect in the voting pattern.
The SP and Congress have left no stone unturned in claiming to be the true benefactor of Muslims while attacking the BJP and Narendra Modi as being ‘anti-Muslim.’ Both SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, besides Azam Khan, and Modi have addressed several rallies in this region in the last one month. Polling stations saw long queues since 7 in the morning in most places and as the day temperature hovered between 29 degrees C and 36 degrees C, the voters kept coming.
Voting was by and large peaceful and except for a fracas in Aonla where a man reportedly set fire to himself after being stopped from casting his vote. He later died in a hospital. Prominent candidates among the 151 in fray are Maneka Gandhi, Santosh Gangwar, Dharmendra Yadav, Saleem Sherwani, Begum Noor Bano, Kazim Ali Khan and Zafar Ali Naqvi. Azam Khan has positioned himself as a crusader against the erstwhile royal family of nawab of Rampur.
While the late nawab Zulfikar Ali Khan was the Congress MP from here for four terms, his wife Begum Noor Bano and her son Kazim are contesting from Moradabad and Rampur, respectively. For Begum Noor Bano, it is a question of salvaging her pride as she has moved to Muslim-dominated Moradabad as the Congress candidate.
The sitting MP Mohammad Azharuddin of the Congress has shifted to Rajasthan and the party faces a stiff challenge from Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar of the BJP and Haji Mohammad Yaqub of the BSP. In Pilibhit, Maneka Gandhi is trying to retain the seat represented by her son varun, who has this time moved to Sultanpur. She banks on the sizable Sikh population for support. She had contested from Aonla in 2009.
In Budayun, SP president Mulayam Singh Yadav’s nephew and sitting MP Dharmendra Yadav faces a challenge from BJP’s Vageesh Pathak who is trying to take advantage of the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the SP government. Similarly in Bareilly, also the gateway to Kumaon hills in Uttarakhand, sitting Congress MP Praveen Singh Aron faces six-time BJP MP Santosh Gangwar who lost in 2009, but is banking on a so-called pro-Modi environment.
The region, popularly known as Tarai and Rohilkhand, is has several prominent institutions such as the MJP Rohilkhand University and Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI) in Bareilly, Maulana Jauhar University in Rampur, Dudhwa National Park in Kheri, Gas Power Plant operated by IFFCO in Aonla, Rosa Power Plant in Shahjahanpur operated by Reliance, sugar mills in Amroha, Nagina, Budayun while Moradabad is known for its famous brassware and metal craft.
Yet, the region presents a typical picture of crumbling infrastructure and civic neglect with badly damaged roads, haphazard growth and poor electricity supply. There is sizable Muslim population in Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal and Amroha, while Sikhs have a localized presence in Pilibhit, Kheri, Bareilly and Shahjahanpur.
Sugarcane is the staple crop of the region while straying tigers, leopards and elephants add to the misery of those living on the fringe of the Tarai forest bordering Nepal. But the election campaign this time has focussed only on the issue of communalism and aimed at polarizing voters.
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