In Nayagaon Dumri, Dilip Singh is busy organising a "grand dinner" for around 5,000 people. On the menu are traditional Bihari delicacies like litti, chokha, meat and for those who want it, there's enough and more liquor. If any official from the Election Commission should land up and ask him about the event, he is celebrating his nephew's birthday.
This village Dumri on Hajipur-Chapra road lies in the Saran parliamentary constituency which is witnessing the electoral battle between former chief minister and RJD chief Lalu Yadav's wife Rabri Devi and former union minister and BJP general secretary Rajiv Pratap Singh Rudy.
Dilip Singh, who is hosting the massive party, is the brother of Sunil Singh, the most powerful cooperative movement leader of Bihar and part of Lalu's core team.
Lalu, Rabri and none of their children were expected to turn up at the dinner but RJD and Congress booth level workers were expected to. If Lalu or Rabri were to attend the event then as per the Election Commission's guidelines they would have to pick up the tab for it and show it as part of their election campaign expenses. By organising the event through a proxy the objective is achieved without catching the eyes of EC observers.
The idea of the dinner is to mobilise, galvanise and instil a sense of camaraderie among the workers of two parties and get them to think of themselves as part of the UPA, not as activists of the individual parties RJD or Congress. Whether BJP's Rudy is resorting to similar tactics to mobilise party cadre isn't clear. But for Lalu and the RJD, the seats of Saran and Patliputra are not just about winning and losing, it will be a verdict about the revival of the RJD and if the 'Modi wave' actually exists in the state.
In Patliputra, Lalu's daughter Misa is locked in a battle against two of her "uncles" Ramkripal Yadav and Ranjan Yadav. If the BJP takes a lead in both these seats it could mean the NDA could win upto 30 seats in the state. But if Lalu manages to mobilise his support base and win, he could well be on the path to a revival. In last parliamentary elections Lalu contested from both these seats. He had won Saran by a margin of around 65,000 votes and lost Patliputra to one-time friend-turned-foe JD(U)'s Ranjan Yadav.
This time Lalu is out of the fray thanks to the apex court's verdict on convicted politicitians and the Election Commission's revised norms. Lalu may not aspire to re-emerge as a subaltern hero that he was in the 1990s, but to his credit he has been successful in portraying himself as the victim of a political conspiracy. Members from Lalu's caste thrived for 20 years, during the Lalu-Rabri regime in Bihar between 1990 and 2005 and between 2004 to 2009 while the RJD chief was railways minister in UPA-I government.
As a a result they have a tremendous sense of empowerment and the consequent rise in societal and economic prestige, has meant that they see in Lalu a hero with wounded pride who has to be resurrected. Yadavas are a dominant caste and the RJD claim that they constitute 18 percent of the total electorate. As Lalu has been able to retain the confidence of Yadavs, the Muslims didn't desert him and continued to see a secular messiah in him than Nitish Kumar. Lalu more than Nitish was seen to be protector of their interests and the challenger, one who could put spikes to Modi's ascendancy to throne in New Delhi.
It is rather ironical that Nitish who severed 17 year old alliance with the BJP and threw its partner out of Bihar Government to claim sole legacy of a secularist in Bihar, finds himself on the tail end in most of the constituencies Bihar. His party men are not sure how many seats they can actually hope to win. Even most optimistic hopes are not getting into double digit. The JD(U) candidate from Saran, Salim Parvez Deputy Chairman Bihar Legislative Council, for instance, is hardly posing any challenge to Rabri or Rudi.
Parvez is not being seen as a threat by RJD to make a substantive dent in Muslim votes to jeopardise prospects of Rabri Devi. In Patliputra, the only curiosity about sitting MP Ranjan Yadav is that how much votes he finally manages to get. Can he get enough votes to damage BJP's Ram Kripal Yadav's prospect, is the question. RJD chief is trying all the ticks of the trade to keep his flock together and see that his daughter and wife win.
Faced with an increasing number of Namo converts across all castes and social groups, Lalu is finding it difficult to smooth sail wife Rabri and daughter Misa's electoral boat. Misa's constituency Patliputra goes to poll on April 17 and Rabri' constituency Saran would go to poll on May 7. Lalu has held around four dozen rallies in last three weeks in Patliputra, asking for a sympathy-cum-pride vote.
An interesting twist comes with Indu Bhushan Singh, son of slain Brahmeshwar Mukhia, chief of Brahmarshi senabeing fielded as a candidate from Patliputra as an Independent. His father was a widely feared and respected caste leader. But then he belongs to neighbouring Ara. Singh is facing ire of his own caste men and have been told on his face in areas like Vikram and Pali that he berated his family's honour and his candidature would only help Lalu, says Ajay Singh, a fellow Bhumihar in Bihta.
But Indu Bhushan has the potential to get few thousands votes which could have otherwise gone to BJP and thus help Misa Yadav. Another Yadav strongman in Patliputra region Ritlal Verma was recently won over by Lalu after latter went his home and gave him party general secretary post. Lalu's fate would not only decide what numbers he gets but will also decide how far Modi's numbers could fly from the state he is so seriously baking upon.
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