ANALYSIS A group of activists that used to take up issues of public interest and worked mostly as pressure and interest groups had come together to form a party one day which transformed them from being activists to politicians!
The issue-specific workers now had bigger a aim to pursue a much clearer objective. The bunch of greenhorns, mostly young enthusiasts, aged between early 20s to late 30s, worked hard to make an indelible markon the political platform.
Under the leadership of the messiah of aam aadmi -an ace intellectual Arvind Kejriwal, thus evolved Aam Aadmi Party under the auspices of all those aam aadmi whose upsurge was seen during the Anna Hazare’s fast for Jan Lokpal Bill (India’s fight against corruption in August 2011). It’s a different matter that he later felt deceived by the government when Anna had to break his fast only with assurance but not the result.
A report analysis of DNA on AAP says that an activist from UP who considers himself to be Kejriwal’s colleague believed that the latter was trying to experiment with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and expected him to return to his roots after the Delhi elections.
No doubt experiments are obviously result-oriented and thus Kejriwal got positive results post Assembly elections. This was the real morale booster that AAP needed to embark on its new political journey to get a pan-India face. Actor Shekhar Kapur commented that Arvind Kejriwal knows that he won’t win this election and isactually preparing for the next elections to be held in 2019.
The chief strategist of AAP Yogendra Yadav in an interview has admitted that AAP has taken a risk by opting to contest in the upcoming general elections instead of confining itself to its stronghold of Delhi and Haryana. He says, “Upscaling so rapidly is difficult but by not expanding, we ran the risk of allowing our support to evaporate…. The text-book understanding of politics is that you take small steps… Launching a party is like rocket launching. You defy gravity or you collapse, there is no third way. This was the only realistic path available. We will see after the election how far we have succeeded.”
Reports suggest that this party, which is the country’s newest political formation that substantially ate into Congress and BSP’s vote-share in Delhi could be of reckoning in a few seats. The latest result of ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll predicts a vote share of 34 per cent (which was 55 per cent in January) translating into three Lok Sabha seats out of total seven seats in Delhi. A total of four seats is expected for AAP, three from Delhi and one from UP, according to the poll. However, the recent NDTV-Hansa survey that came out two days ago predicted only one seat for AAP from Delhi
Notwithstanding the opinion poll, , it is the performance of the party that matters in the end. It is not about the number of seats AAP gets but what matters is how deep has its ideology penetrated into the minds of people. AAP which is mostly recognised as an urban party which appeals to mostly the middle class and the youth hopes to become a game-changer.
With time, however, its popularity has been on a steady decline especially among the non-urban sections of population which initially supported it. For example, it had tremendous support from taxi-drivers and slum dwellers during the Delhi elections. But AAP’s short-lived stint in power and the resultant disappointment was enough for this section to talk of taking back their support.
AAP’s short-lived government in Delhi has left both negative and positive impressions on the minds of people with the latter predominating. Most of the attributes of AAP which made it different from other parties, were the major reasons for the success of Anna’s Ramlila Maidan rally. Be it social engineering through technology or media networking through traditional means, AAP has had a different idea for all such sections.
Another important feature in its favour was its choice of candidates, of which the initial section comprised social activists, business tycoons, celebrities. This extra-ordinary quality had won AAP laurels in the form of people’s support the core of which was trust.
It may not turn out to be victorious, it may rein in a major vote share but it can surely sour the taste of victory in quite a many mouths. You can either love Kejriwal and his team or loathe them for their activist-dharna-dramatics antics, but it is absolutely difficult to mistrust him and his people.
AAP continues to be an epitome of trust for the people disenchanted with the mainstream parties. It would really be difficult to say how many seats or what percentage of votes it would win. But whatever the case may be, it cannot be denied that it gives people a third option, like a non-aligned party or an alternative to NOTA (none of the above) option on the EVM!
According to Lloyd, who was awarded Padma Bhushan for extensive work on India, AAP could play a spoiler in the general elections. Being an urban party, if it does well in cities other than Delhi, then it is covet a significant place in national politics. For once, the result of Elections 2014 will settle the big question: Was AAP’s Delhi performance just a flash in the pan or is it a party which has a significant national appeal and is going to stay here for long?
However, for now AAP is sure to continue with its role of vote share-cutting and undermining the margins of victories for big names in other parties. This can leave the Third Front aspirants in a lurch and bring the major bastions back in the dock! Or by any chance it may stand out to being a (feeble) winner, thus becoming the major game-changer the elections to come!
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