ANALYSIS "All the world's a stage and all men and women are mere players." When William Shakespeare wrote that cult poem, little did he know, centuries later, it'd be best suited to describe the political happenings in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
Indian politics has never been low on drama and the carving out of a new state has only made the actors grow more shrill, vying for that thunderous applause from their respective vote-banks. So while some politicians pump their fists in the air shouting 'Jai samakhya (united) Andhra', some others paint the town pink (literally!) claiming victory of the 29th state of India, Telangana. While the rest are busy changing the colour of their khandwas (angvastrams) depending on which party they now choose to enter or re-enter.
After more than 4 decades, the state now falls under President's rule. From a region that gave the UPA I and UPA II its most stable platform with majority MPs, the current situation is devoid of a leader who can possibly gain consensus among his own.
And the man who will go down in history as the last Chief Minister of United Andhra Pradesh, Kiran Reddy, has gone reticent. While he did make sure he emerged as a confrontationist, taking on the Congress top brass over the bifurcation issue, his actions post-resignation have been almost an anti-climax. It is a matter of political survival.
Amidst high voltage speculation of floating his own political party, sources say, Kiran Reddy's delay over a decision, is not helping desperate and expelled Congress legislators. While several Congress legislators had pinned their hopes on boarding the Kiran Reddy wagon, with the route still undecided, many say, it's time to switch tracks.
In fact, 3 of his close aides, Cong MLAs TG Venkatesh, Erasu Pratap Reddy and Ganta Srinivas Rao have decided to hop boats & sail along with the Telugu Desam Party. Expelled MPs like L Rajagopal, Undavalli Arun Kumar and a few others though hope the cricketer-turned-politician has a few surprise shots up his sleeve. In his first interaction after resigning as the chief minister, Kiran Reddy made sure he stoked the political outfit fire by seeking support of the audience, students from Seema-Andhra region, for whatever be his next political move.
But the Congress has more to worry than their home grown rebel. The grand old party was hoping to revive its failing fortunes with possible merger with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). But despite earlier assurances of merger, the TRS party now threatens to go solo in the coming polls. TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao and his party cadre now see Congress as a political liability.
TRS's own party cadre, after creation of Telangana, is high on morale and strength and would rather prefer to safeguard its own future than merge its identity with the Congress. "Unless they make us an offer we just cannot refuse," said a senior TRS MLA quoting Mario Puzo's Godfather, when asked about any possibility of a merger. An assured chief minister's post and at least 60 of the 119 assembly seats of Telangana are part of the TRS's desired offer. How much is the Congress willing to concede? Congress insiders say it also depends on how the other big alliance in the state may turn out in the next few days, the BJP-TDP relationship.
Chandrababu Naidu, setting the tone for a possible future alliance, shared dais with BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi a few weeks ago. Appreciating Modi's administrative skills, Naidu remained tight lipped over a formal announcement. TDP was hoping the BJP would help stall the bifurcation process in the Parliament, giving it a chance to redeem itself in Telangana region. Giving a twist to the tale though, BJP went ahead & supported the AP State reorganisation Bill.
Naidu held quick meetings with his party men from both Telangana and Seema Andhra region, asking them to continue party work at grass root level and leave the alliance worries to him. Interestingly, TDP has been the only major party that stuck to its "Justice for all regions" mantra, circumventing the bifurcation debate. But it is also the only party that hasn't been wiped out from one region or the other yet.
BJP's tie-up with TDP could also ensure BJP's re-entry to the South after its Karnataka debacle. In the Seemandhra region, Naidu's TDP could well be the only strong force stopping YSR Congress and Jagan Reddy from claiming victory over the 9 coastal Andhra and 4 Rayalseema districts. Jagan Reddy, meanwhile, will be touring the Telangana region in the next few days, as part of his poll campaign, refusing to concede any territory despite his vocal United AP stance.
In this battle for power, citizens hope development and stability will also survive as election issues. High emotions have always been a fertile ground for politics. The regions of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have seen such turmoil before, but with the separation now complete and regional sentiments at an all-time high, 2014 elections are going to be a fight to the finish, for several political fortunes.
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