The pre-poll crossing-over of politicians—a routine activity before any election—has gathered momentum in Uttar Pradesh even as major political parties race against time to declare their candidates for the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
The movement, so far, appears one-sided as politicians from almost all other parties are flocking to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This is understandable in view of most pre-poll surveys and field reports suggesting that that the BJP-led NDA has an edge over the Congress-led UPA in most states.
For the BJP, it is not surprising as its state spokesman puts it. “There are many people in both Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) who are in touch with our party leaders. But their joining depends upon consensus in our party over the move," says Vijay Bahadur Pathak, state BJP spokesman.
While it is certain that former Congress MP Jagdambika Pal is most likely to join the BJP in a day or two, sources in BJP say he might be given the party ticket from Domariaganj. "It is almost decided at the top level," says a senior party leader. Pal had quit the Congress last week. Another state politician whose entry into the BJP is considered certain is Anupriya Patel, who heads the Apna Dal.
She is the daughter Sone Lal Patel, who founded that party. It was part of an alliance just before the 2012 state Assembly elections that comprised Apna Dal, Peace Party and Qaumi Ekta Dal. But the alliance collapsed soon thereafter. "Patel wields considerable influence among the Kurmi community and will prove beneficial for the BJP," said the BJP leader.
It all began several months ago with the desire of former chief minister Kalyan Singh to return to the BJP fold. He was slated to join the party as early as November last year but the joining was delayed for months. He finally took BJP’s membership on the stage from where Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Lucknow on 2 March. It is reported that he might be named party’s candidate from Etah.
Others who have joined the BJP include Kirti Vardhan Singh, former MP from Gonda who was earlier given the SP ticket from the same seat but later quit the party and is likely to be named the BJP candidate from the same seat. In retaliation, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav dropped Kirti Vardhan’s father Anand Singh, who was agriculture minister, from the cabinet, and also expelled him from the party.
Incidentally, the SP candidate and sitting MP from Kaiserganj, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, had also expressed his unwillingness to contest on party ticket and returned it, and later joined it. His son Prateek Bhushan has already joined BJP. The latest to return the SP election nomination is the stand-up comedian Raju Srivastava, who was named SP candidate from Kanpur one year ago and had been campaigning in Kanpur with banners, posters and street corner meetings.
Srivastava told the media that there was "no base of the party in Kanpur", yet he took this responsibility with positivity but non-cooperation from the SP workers in the constituency made him return the party ticket. The SP, on the other hand, claims that Srivastava was not paying “enough attention” to his constituency and campaigning and therefore the party had withdrawn the ticket from him. SP has chosen its veteran trader leader Surendra Mohan Agrawal.
"Most SP workers in Kanpur knew for long that it would finally be Agrawal who would contest from Kanpur, and Raju was only a time-pass,” says Sanjiv Sharma, a public relations professional from Kanpur who keeps in close touch with political parties. Even the BSP has its share of bigwigs crossing over to the BJP. The latest could be Allahabad MLA Nand Gopal Nandi and his wife Abhilasha, mayor of Allahabad.
Both have been expelled from the BSP for their alleged affinity to the BJP and it is expected that both might join the BJP and Nandi may even get the party nomination from Allahabad. Nandi had joined the BSP a few months ahead of the 2007 Assembly election and had defeated BJP’s Keshri Nath Tripathi and Rita Bahuguna Joshi of the Congress from Allahabad (South). He had later been made a cabinet minister by then chief minister Mayawati, but after being seriously injured in a bomb attack in 2010 was bedridden for months.
In the 2012 assembly elections he lost to Samajwadi Party. The most unexpected movement was of former SP leader Amar Singh and former MP Jaya Prada into the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal. The duo had been estranged from the SP for years and recent reports suggested that Jaya Prada was keen to join Congress along with Singh. "While the party was okay with her, there were reservations over Singh’s entry. They apparently settled for the second best," says a UPCC leader in Lucknow.
While Singh has been named the RLD candidate from Fatehpur Sikri, Jaya Prada will contest from Bijnore. RLD leaders are quite confident that the high-profile entry will change the political equation in the region where the party faces uncertainty in the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar riots. This year, the RLD is going to contest on eight seats in alliance with the Congress.
"Most such movements are by politicians who are not sure of their victory from their party and seek better fortunes in the party which seems to be riding the wave of popularity," says Ravindra Jaiswal, a veteran political observer. Caste considerations on the part of all political parties also play a role in these defections as is the case with Kalyan Singh, Jagdambika Pal, Anupriya Patel, Udit Raj, he says, adding that more such movements are likely as the parties give a finishing touch to their candidate lists.
Similar movements had started from the BSP to other parties just prior to the February-March 2012 Assembly election also. At that time, the voter sentiment was perceived to be against the BSP but most of the defections had taken place towards the BJP. These included former ministers in the Mayawati regime Badshah Singh, Babu Singh Kushwaha, Daddan Mishra and Avadhesh Verma.
Following uproar in BJP over the induction of NRHM scam tainted Kushwaha, his entry was stalled. Kushwaha is still in jail. A similar uproar had risen in SP also when Badaun strongman DP Yadav, was being re-inducted into the SP, but then Akhilesh Yadav had put his foot down and Yadav was denied entry into SP.
Others who did get into the SP included former UP Assembly Speaker Dhani Ram Varma, and the father-son duo, Naresh Agarwal and son Nitin Agarwal - both with BSP till then.
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